this fanpost is a spin-off from a comment on the "Joe Webb talks about Musgrave's Offense" fanpost.
someone there posted that they thought christian ponder should be named the starter and that rhett bomar should be named the #2 qb, like right now. this seemed a little bit off the cuff to myself and a few others, and a search for clear reasoning ensued. i personally question this logic and want to expand on it for discussion.
his reasoning for announcing ponder as the starter, right now, was that:
"Most teams that are solid do it with their one guy at the helmTom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Sam Bradford, even Big Ben when not suspended and Aaron Rodgers, if he understands he can’t run like a RB…
Almost every good QB has a big unknown at #2."
so, he is saying "if we put a rookie at #1 qb, and a big unknown at #2 qb, then we will be like a solid team"...
and all i say to this is, "hhhmmmm".
plus, his whole reason for simply inserting bomar as the #2, right now, no questions asked... is that:
"He was good at OU as a freshman and has the attitude that it takes to be a QB...Bomar is a fine back-up."
i tried to point out that ponder is just a rookie with zero nfl experience, and that bomar has been a practice squad player for the last 2 seasons, for some other team, and has zero nfl snaps to his name....(cue chirping crickets).
i also pointed out that our o-line got our #1 and #2 qb's knocked out of commision for the season last year, and that it just might be challenging for a rookie qb to do well and remain healthy behind that same o-line. and even more so because we might not even have a training camp this summer, much less a complete playbook by the time the season starts. but, that kind of flew by as well.
my point is, maybe it wouldn't be so prudent to start the year out with zero nfl experience at the #1- #2 qb slots.
perhaps it would be better to at least consider some competition for those jobs, at least with another young qb that has already been on the team, and has some real live game experience, albeit very little. and it might make even more sense to bring in a veteran with a few years experience to compete and at least take the reins if the wheels fall off again this year. but, that may have sounded entirely too reasonble.
needless to say. the conversation was going nowhere. so i decided to look at his qb examples in light of the reasoning he gave. and then summarize their draft position, their rookie seasons, and the veteran qb's that they were either backing up. or were on the roster in case they faultered (wise planning, imo).
if anything, i think it is a good filler subject to look at along with ted glover's article:
"The part where we pick through the quarterback scrap heap" ,
which discusses available veteran qb's might be worth considering.
so, why did he bring up "tom brady, peyton manning, drew brees, et al"? i just think it was a quick answer.
but, simply naming some rookie the starter isn't going to make us a solid team. it's not like some little magical spell you recite, then click your heels three times and the vikings are instantly "solid", and no longer "diahrrea". i'd say that usually, the qb should have to earn the spot and establish himself as the number one guy, somehow. especially if he is not the top pick in the draft,and is the 4th qb selected...and build the team up as well.
so, here is where i want to look at this list of examples that he was comparing to ponder, but in more detail...
what i find interesting is that these guys all show a variety of scenerios or how a qb can develop and emerge.
many of them started out in a back-up role and ascended to starter status due to injuries, trades, illness
and circumstances that could not really be predicted or planned for. but a few rookie starters did work out according to plan. their stories provide a good compare and contrast overview, and show that the unexpected
is to be expected more times than not.
was the 33rd pick in 6th round (#199) of the 2000 draft. he was a back up who only got a chance after he worked his way up the depth chart from a #4 qb and replaced the veteran starter, drew bledsoe, after he got injured. they were already a solid team with bledsoe. luckily for them, they had a kick ass 6th round back up qb. he earned it, it wasn't just handed to him. and, who backed up tom brady when he took the starting job in 2001? a veteran, drew bledsoe...see, belichick knows to keep a veteran around. i'll trust his methods.
was the 1st pick in the 1st round of the 1998 draft. which means he was the first qb selected, not the fourth qb picked. and, he wasn't considered a reach. the colts at least had a back-up qb with 3 years nfl experience in kelly holcomb behind him. the colts went 3-13 that year, and peyton only completed 56% of his passes, threw more int's than td's (26 vs. 28) and finished with a whopping 71.2 qbr. (plus, he had qbr's of 58.7, 51.1 and 39.3 in his first 3 games in the nfl. how does that compare to joe webb?...38.8 (off the bench), 87.8 (start) and 60.0 (start).
was the 1st pick of the 2nd round in 2001 (about where ponder was projected to go). and sat on the bench for a year behind a guy with experience. he beat out doug flutie the next year, only to later lose his starting job again to flutie. the team also drafted phillip rivers during his tenure, because they wanted a viable alternate option in case he didn't hold the spot. he eventually signed as a free agent with the saints, who had a 10 year veteran qb backing him up, not some practice squad guy with zero experience. he did well, but it took him 5 full seasons and 2 teams to become the established star that he is now considered.
was the 4th pick of the 1st round of the 2004 draft and the 2nd qb selected. he signed a $40million contract and ended up being the #3 qb in 2004 and the #2 qb in 2005. as it was, he sat for 2 years because he couldn't beat out the guys in front of him. he took over for drew bress only AFTER brees got injured. luckily for the chargers, they had a decent back-up to take over when their starter went down with injury. then, brees left in free agency, because the chargers only offered him an incentive laden 5 year $50 million contract after his injury. go figure.
was the 11th pick in the 1st round in 2006. he was the 3rd qb drafted. he sat behind a veteran, jake plummer for 11 games until shanahan benched plummer b-cuz he wasn't john elway. he started the next season with veteran patrick ramsey as his back-up, a guy with actual nfl experience. but, qbotf jay cutler then got traded away after the year to the bears. yep, there's your QBOTF....for a different team than that which drafted him !!!
was the 3rd pick in the 2008 draft and the 1st qb selected overall. he was touted as the most complete, sure thing qb coming out that year. the falcons had veteran chris redman on the roster as his back-up, not a PS guy. they got great o-line play, were the 2nd ranked rushing team, ryan was only sacked 17 times and got ROY. he was the "andrew luck" of that draft. if we screw it up this year, we could be in the andrew luck sweepstakes.
was the 17th pick of the 2009 draft and the 3rd qb selected. he started the year as a #3 back-up qb to a veteran, byron leftwich, who got injured and benched for #2 qb josh johnson. 4 games later he replaced johnson he then played in 9 games. he had 54% pass comp, threw 10 td's and 18 picks, was sacked 20 times and had a qbr of 59.8 (OMG, that's worse than joe webb ! ;). the bucs finished the 3-13.
was drafted 18th in the 1st round of the 2008 draft. he was the 2nd qb selected that year. he was the #3 qb on the depth chart behind former 1st round qbotf veteran kyle boller and troy smith. boller went down early with a season ending injury, and then smith also went down early with a serious illness. and thus, shane falcco became the starting qb, get this...because the 2 guys in front of him went down to injury/illness. and, in 2009, the ravens brought in veteran marc bulger to back him up, just in case (not some PS guy).
was the 27th pick in the 3rd round of the 2004 draft. he was the 5th qb selected. he was a back up for his first 3 years. it wasn't until he was traded to the texans in 2007 that he became a #1 qb. then, he had veteran back-up sage rosenfels as his back-up. and it's a good thing, because schaub was freaking hurt his first 2 seasons with the texans. thankfully, they has somebody with some experience to replace him with. it wasn't until his 3rd year with the team (his 6th year in the league), that he put together a full season as a starter....on his second team.
was the 1st pick of the 1st round of the 2004 draft. that makes him the 1st qb selected that year. he was extremely highly touted as the qbotf for the giants. yet,he started the year as the #2 qb behind a veteran qb, former all-pro, league mvp, super bowl mvp and grocery bag clerk, kurt warner. warner went on to post a 5-4 record before the coach bumped him for eli manning....who then went 1-6, completed 48% of his passes, threw 6 td's vs. 9 picks and finished with a 55.4qbr....that's also worse than joe webb!!! the next year the giants went out and got a veteran, tim hasselbeck, to back him up, not a practice squad guy. and eli managed to complete 52% of his passes and garner a 75.9 qbr. that is even less than t-jack's 76.6 career qbr. so, the top overall pick in the draft came off the bench and sucked. then, in year two, he had a veteran back-up and he still kinda sucked.
was the 1st pick in the 1st round of the 2010 draft. that means he was the 1st qb selected that year. he was so highly touted, that he was projected as the top pick of the 2009 nfl draft, but decided to go back for his junior year in college. he had a season ending injury in his first game that year....and still became the top pick in the next year's draft. this kid can play. ponder doesn't get mentioned in the same sentence as him. but still, now what did st. louis do, they brought in a veteran, a.j. feely as a back-up to him, just in case, not a practice squad guy with zero nfl snaps to his name. he played well, the team surprised by going 7-9, and bradford looked like the kind of a guy you sign to a 6 year $78 million contract....ponder is going to get one-quarter of that if he is lucky.
big ben beef jerky:
was drafted 11th in the 1st round of the 2004 draft. he was the 3rd qb selected that year. he was made the #2 qb behind the starter, veteran tommy maddox. it wasn't until maddox injured his elbow in the second game of the season that ben jerklessbooger came in to play. the steelers had wanted maddox to start the whole season in order to bring ben along slowly. but, big ben kicked some butt, and the steelers went to the afc championship. hoo-frickin-ray, too bad he is such a douche bag, cuz he is an awesome qb.
was the 24th pick in the 1st round of the 2005 draft. he was the 2nd qb selected that year. he came in and was the back-up to a veteran, mr. cell phone, and didn't really get much of a chance to play for 3 years while favre dicked around with everyone. in his 4th season in the league, he got a chance to start and did really well. the team finished 6-10. he benefitted by sitting and developing, and by having coaches that know how to actively develop a qb. his delivery and footwork were refined, and his long grooming period probably helped him overall. even then, the packers drafted 2 qb's in the 2008 draft, 2nd rounder brian brohm, and 7th rounder matt flynn.
i think frazier is probably scouring the options for a veteran, and game planning a few scenerios based on what transpires. however, i personally think it would be wise to get a veteran in here to compete with and mentor both ponder and webb at qb. i think rhett bomar is the a dark horse wild card at best.
but, i respect the opinion of the guy i was conversing with, and know that he just wants a winner, too.
so, i think it would be interesting to hear your thoughts on how these guys careers started, and compare it to how you think ponder's, webb's and bomar's careers might take shape while the frazier and the vikings try to re-group.