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Twin Cities Tug-of-War in the Stadium Scramble

The draft is over and the lockout is back in effect and Minneapolis is acting kind of like a twerp-yep, things are back to normal.

Minneapolis is a great city. It has a vibrant downtown area full of restaurants, bars, concert and sports venues. Going from St. Paul to Minneapolis on a Saturday night is kind of like going from a small town high school to San Diego State University. That's why creating a sports entertainment corridor in Minneapolis in the area between Target Center, Target Field, and the Minneapolis Farmers Market site proposed for a Vikings stadium sounds like a great idea. Until, of course, you try to pay for it.

Join me after the jump, the Vikings have three potential sites and a lot of questions that need answers.

Star-divide

On Monday last week, real estate investor Bruce Lambrecht, the visioned fellow* who first proposed the Minnesota Twin's new home, released an analysis comparing the benefits of building a new Vikings stadium on the Minneapolis Farmers Market site west of Target Field and on the current Metrodome site. In this study, prepared with the aid of David Albersman, the Minneapolis urban planner responsible for presenting the initial plans for the new Twins ballpark, Lambrecht presented findings that said, in all but one area, the Farmers Market site was far superior to the Dome site. The Farmers Market site would have easy access to a proposed transit hub, parking close to the stadium, and numerous bars and restaurants for pre- and post-game dining. If a stadium is built on the Farmers Market site, it could be the kind of urban stadium that would make Zygi Wilf rub his hands together with glee.

The only area in this study where the 47-acre Farmers Market site faired poorly in comparison to the Metrodome site was in land acquisition costs. Even with a plan that would not include property owned by Mary Jo Copeland's** Sharing and Caring Hands charity, the costs of acquiring the property could add an additional $150 million to the project that is already projected to cost $900 million.

As far as contrasting these two Minneapolis sites, I'm not sure adding $150 million to the projected $900 million that a stadium would cost matters. Whether it costs $900 million or $900+$150 million, Minneapolis still has no money to contribute to a stadium project. And that presents a major funding problem because, under the current proposal, a third of the cost of a new Vikings stadium needs to be covered by a local equity partner.

Now, here's a bit of Twin Cities rivalry that I think is funny. Both the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported on this study contrasting the Farmers Market site and the Metrodome site, but how they covered the story varied.

The Star-Tribune explored the connection that Bruce Lambrecht's championing of the Farmers Market site has an element of self-interest. Lambrecht owns land near, but not on, the proposed site. So, although he wouldn't benefit directly from the deal by having his property included in the property being considered for the stadium, you better believe that Lambrecht would indirectly benefit if the Farmers Market site is chosen for a Vikings stadium. I don't have a problem with people profiting from a stadium deal-so long as that information is made known before a deal is done, and I'm glad the Star-Tribune brought out that element of this stadium debate.

However, to read the Star-Tribune you might never know there was a third potential Vikings stadium site, the former Army Ammunitions site in Arden Hills. All the Star-Tribune had to say about the site in Ramsey County, was that Ted Mondale of the Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission will release an analysis of the bottom-line costs of building a new roofed stadium that include all three potential stadium sites. Yup, that was it.

In contrast, the Pioneer Press story revealed that talks between the Vikings and Ramsey County regarding the former Army Ammunitions site are progressing to the point where there will either be a deal forthcoming or the conclusion that there will be no deal. The word at the end of last week was that there might even be a deal forthcoming between the Vikings and Ramsey County for the Arden Hills site if upgrades to the transportation infrastructure in the area would be paid for by the state. That seems to confirm what Mondale had said earlier last week, the Vikings like the Ramsey County site. Mind you, they don't like it so much that they aren't still interested in other sites, but they do like the site.

But, by Thursday last week, Mike Opat, Hennepin County Board Chairman, had withdrawn his pursuit for a Vikings stadium being built on the Minneapolis Farmers Market site because of the expense, despite the support of local business leaders, while supporters of building a new Vikings stadium on the Metrodome site scrambled. And in the midst of those Minneapolis moves, it was reported that the Vikings were getting very close to making an agreement with Ramsey County for the TCAAP site in Arden Hills.

Although there is no way that Arden Hills can provide the kind of urban entertainment corridor that building a stadium near Target Field can offer, there are compensations for not being in the middle of a big city-namely, space. I've read differing numbers on how many acres are available at the Arden Hills site (some articles have said 400 acres and others say 200 acres), but it is certainly more than would be available at the Metrodome site or the 47-acre proposed site in the Farmers Market. With that much space available, there will be plenty of parking available near the stadium and plenty of room for tailgating. I've read some estimates that suggest several thousand tailgating spaces could be available for fans if the Vikings go with the Arden Hills site. It may be that being able to grill your own brats could make up for not having wide a choice of restaurants near the stadium. The major sticking point in getting the deal done is the cost of transportation upgrades to the area so thousands of game day fans could move in and out of the area easily. It is hoped that state funds will be used to upgrade the transportation infrastructure in the area.

At any rate, even with questions lingering on the transportation infrastructure issue, the Arden Hills site still has the benefit of being able to act as a full local equity partner with the Vikings. Minneapolis, unable to be a full equity partner, favors a broader, regional tax affecting more of Minnesota in order to keep the Vikings in Hennepin County.

With the way the stadium proposal stands now, with the state, a local equity partner, and the Vikings each covering a third of the cost of a new, roofed stadium, Minneapolis isn't capable of being an equity partner. That being the case, Arden Hills seems the likeliest location for a Vikings stadium. However, if Minneapolis convinces the legislature to levy a regional/state tax, or if the business investors in Minneapolis raise private funds for a Minneapolis stadium, then that would seem to favor one of the Minneapolis stadium sites.

I don't really care whether the Vikings building a stadium at the Metrodome site, the Farmers Market site, or the Arden Hills site. So long as the Vikings stay in Minnesota, I'm a happy camper. But, if the lobbying for an unlikely (under present circumstances and despite Minneapolis' newfound willingness to pay about a fourth of the cost), Minneapolis stadium endangers a deal with Arden Hills I'll be very annoyed.

*Bruce Lambrecht is also a moneyed fellow because the purchase of the property for Target Field earned $28 million for Lambrecht's investment group.

**Mary Jo Copeland has said she has no interest in moving her charities. Any effort by the city of Minneapolis or the Vikings organization will be met with serious resistance that will complicate any construction project involving her property.

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Well...

It’s pretty obvious that most of us here are in favor of the proposal most likely to get done…

But, I think it is significantly more likely that a proposal centered in or around downtown would be better for the city’s economy and ultimately the state’s. I really enjoy having a variety of options before and after a game in terms of dining, although tailgating is an all-around good time – something that we would obviously lack downtown.

But given Mary Jo Copeland’s resistance and general discomfort with eminent domain … perhaps a different site (not the Farmers Market proposal) should be pursued.

by Arif Hasan on May 9, 2011 8:15 PM CDT reply actions  

Today things got murkier...

With Minneapolis R.T. Rybak’s press conference about the Metrodome site. According to KSTP 5 Eyewitness News, the Vikings said that they have been talking to Arden Hills for about a year and they found out about this new proposal just days ago. That leaves the Vikings with a lot to consider in a very short amount of time because the pressure is on to get a deal done within the current legislative session.

Life being what it is, one dreams of revenge.
- Paul Gauguin

by Skol Girl on May 9, 2011 10:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think that because of that

it tells the Vikings that Minneapolis never was serious until now and that all they are trying to do is play spoiler just like they did with Anoka/Blaine.

New coach, new coaching staff, new starting QB. All we need now is a new stadium and all will be well in 2011.

by VikesFaninNM on May 9, 2011 11:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

kind of funny

that the stadium proponents tout economic growth as a reason the state should pay for it….however, when considering the Arden Hills site, they don’t realize that with all that land, eventually, private businesses, (hotels and restaurants) will build new buildings there that will offer more jobs….considering there is much in Minneapolis to keep the existing restaurants and hotels open. True job growth, rather than just temporary construction jobs.

by Chris3 on May 9, 2011 8:20 PM CDT reply actions  

Historically

That tends not to be true. It increases growth when they are built downtown by increasing traffic and pre and post-game leisure opportunities. This bears out particularly well for NFL stadiums, as they see even less event traffic. Studies have borne this out by going city-by-city and comparing the effect of downtown stadiums to stadiums outside of the established business district.

Restaurants cannot be sustained only by event traffic, only boosted. That means restaurants, hotels, etc. are unlikely to develop there as a result of sports revenue unless there is a different overriding reason to.

by Arif Hasan on May 9, 2011 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

I've read that report as well.

Essentially, you can’t support restaraunts and hotels with 8-10 games a year. It makes sense. Even if they keep events running year-round in the new stadium, these are of course going to be by and large only weekend events. So assuming that you do a kick-arse job on planning and scheduling, you’ve got roughly 100-150 days out of the year that people will have a reason to show up to the area. That’s roughly, give or take, about a third of a year- and again, we’re already talking in extremely liberal, optimistic terms here.

So it’s a very valid point. Something else, something that’s largely independent from the stadium and works year-round, week-round, would have to follow the Vikings out to that area for an actual solid, reliable economic boost to occur. Even if, say, a ‘Viking Land’ themepark that operated year-round showed up, it would still have a hard time operating succesfully off-season.

Once upon a time, some guys from this group called "Navy SEAL Team Six" flew in on some helicopters into Pakistan. 40 minutes later... they flew out with the dead corpse of Osama bin Laden, with two bullet holes in his hea... wait, what? They also burned the mansion he was staying at to the ground?
AWESOME!
Daily Norseman

by KJSegall on May 10, 2011 7:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

personally

having someone build more of a state fair type setup adjoining a non-downtown stadium would seem like the way to go for food choices before and after games. Those type of places have a much smaller operating cost and would allow for a much richer tailgating experience. Personally, I don’t consider the Mpls offer to be a good faith offer and it really is wasting everyone’s time.

No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.

by TheEvilProfessor on May 10, 2011 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions  

how?

How does replacing something downtown increase growth? Everything is already in place. I keep hearing (from stadium proponents) that the stadium would be more than just for the Vikings, so, I suppose those other people would use restaurants and hotels year round as well. I still suggest that with everything else in Minneapolis, those restaurants and hotels wouldn’t suffer enough to close down. Also, I would suspect that land developers would plan other shopping experiences around the new stadium.

So, tell me, how can an established area grow by replacing a building, like for like? At the very best, it is just maintained.

by Chris3 on May 10, 2011 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Multiple examples

New Orleans being the prime example. Others include Chicago and Cincinnati. The negative examples of San Francisco and Washington, DC are also significant.

Check it out here or here. The coefficient in regards to economic growth for teams located downtown is .12, for teams at the edge of the city it is -0.6, and for team in suburbs a whopping -1.17. Having two teams downtown makes the coefficient .53, and three teams is 1.09! One of the papers in the link had this to say: “In those MSAs where MSA income rose with respect to the number of major league stadia, such as Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh, stadia were located in the CBD. In other MSAs where the association was negative, such as Detroit, Oakland, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C., stadia are located outside the CBD and often in the suburbs.” *MSA means Metropolitan Statistical Area.

What that means is that stadiums contribute to economic growth positively downtown and in many cases negatively in the suburbs. The three teams test is significant at the .01 level, which means there is more than 99% confidence level that the statistical sampling is accurate.

I feel like I keep on shamelessly plugging my own work, but I already did write about this – it has to do with what’s called an “agglomeration effect,” where spending is correlated highly not as much with the amount of discretionary income, but more with the number of opportunities to spend. Those already exist downtown and people generally don’t set up restaurants or hotels if they are rely on event traffic because it is sporadic, nonseasonal, and actually relatively small given a sport’s teams value share in the overall share of a city’s GDP.

If you want to spend more time reading, I’m going to plug my piece here: http://www.dailynorseman.com/2011/5/9/2156816/the-stadium-value-positive – just scroll down to the part about “Are Sports Teams Worth It?” and it will detail more about why stadia downtown are economic boons and stadia in the suburbs are called blights.

by Arif Hasan on May 10, 2011 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well with all these Stadium ideas

Minnesota should have the greatest stadium evah in the next few years.

Darko is my bodyguard.

by Premier Cherdenko on May 9, 2011 8:25 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm crossing my fingers :)

Life being what it is, one dreams of revenge.
- Paul Gauguin

by Skol Girl on May 9, 2011 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

While I am opposed to public financing for a stadium

Arden hills makes the most sense. Consider Wal-Mart. When they build in an area, they generally buy a lot of cheap land, build their store and sell off the out lots. Other retail businesses buy up those lots. After seeing Walmart’s strategy in several areas throughout all of IL, and seeing the lots sit vacant for 5 yrs or so empty before they even build their store, it makes sense. They buy up the cheap land, wait until timing is right, build and sell the excess land for a huge profit. If the State is going to be the owner, it would make sense to follow this strategy. The State could make a lot of money selling off excess land to hotels, restaurants, shopping centers, etc., which could provide a good return on investment and perhaps pay for the stadium itself.

by Chris3 on May 9, 2011 8:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Daydream

I have this daydream that the Arden Hills site could turn into a Vikings Village because they would have the room to move all of their facilities out there.

Life being what it is, one dreams of revenge.
- Paul Gauguin

by Skol Girl on May 9, 2011 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

When we got to visit Winter Park a couple months ago...

I was surprised at how strapped they were for space. When they wanted to create a studio there they had to take away half of a players’ lounge. And, they have some of their marketing staff housed across the street—Ted said when he was there for the draft he had to dash back and forth between the facilities to cover the first round pick. With all that space out in Arden Hills, I can’t help but think it has crossed the Wilfs’ minds. And, if the team’s headquarters was in Arden Hills, players, coaches, and other staff might move closer to the area—an influx of millionaires probably wouldn’t be bad for the county.

Life being what it is, one dreams of revenge.
- Paul Gauguin

by Skol Girl on May 9, 2011 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

If they stayed.

A lot of players- granted, not all, but a fair amount- do flock to secondary homes in warmer climates during the offseason. There’s also a secondary concern with that scenario. Now, I’ve never been to Arden Hills, so pardon perhaps some ignorance here and perhaps an incorrect statement, but from all I’ve read, it sounds like currently there’s not a ton happening out there. This means that players who enjoy the ‘fast life’ (Bryant McKinnie) may not wish to stay in that area for any reason other than football. Granted, it could be a good reason for nightclubs, restaurants, and such to open, but until that happens, again there won’t be many players making permanent homes in that area.

Jared Allen might, though, if there’s good huntin’ around.

Once upon a time, some guys from this group called "Navy SEAL Team Six" flew in on some helicopters into Pakistan. 40 minutes later... they flew out with the dead corpse of Osama bin Laden, with two bullet holes in his hea... wait, what? They also burned the mansion he was staying at to the ground?
AWESOME!
Daily Norseman

by KJSegall on May 10, 2011 7:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

Since it is only a 15 minute drive to downtown Minneapolis, I don’t think that would be an issue

by Chris3 on May 10, 2011 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

Arden Hills Land

I am pretty sure the 400/200 distinction is the fact that the overall space of the ammunition plant is 400+ acres, but the current plan for the stadium is only to use 200 of it or so, leaving the other 200+ open for other development. Which I am sure Wilf would be quick to jump on since that is his bread and butter.

by nectur on May 9, 2011 8:52 PM CDT reply actions  

That's it!

Thanks, I was beginning to go crazy with numbers that kept changing.

Life being what it is, one dreams of revenge.
- Paul Gauguin

by Skol Girl on May 9, 2011 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

And there's the x factor for Arden Hills.

Perhaps it’s saving grace. Is our ol’ friend Zygi interested in perhaps more than just a stadium in that area? As you said, it is his side job (tongue in cheek) to develop real estate. If he sees potential economic value and growth there, then perhaps when all is said and done, he might in fact even be MORE interested. After all, in real estate, it’s a dream gig when you are also in charge of the anchor.

Once upon a time, some guys from this group called "Navy SEAL Team Six" flew in on some helicopters into Pakistan. 40 minutes later... they flew out with the dead corpse of Osama bin Laden, with two bullet holes in his hea... wait, what? They also burned the mansion he was staying at to the ground?
AWESOME!
Daily Norseman

by KJSegall on May 10, 2011 7:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

What about the contaminated land??

I always heard that nobody ever built on the munitions site was because of the Haz-Mat issue. Does anybody know if there is any issue with the land being contaminated and/or there being a possibility of buried, undetonated ammunition on site??

by ctowner35 on May 10, 2011 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions  

probably...

lead. and industrial waste.

they’ll be digging anyway… haul it off and reclaim what they can, burn the rest.

I’m no environmental scientist, but this is what they do on TV. :P

I BELIEVE...

by ArizonaVikingsFan on May 10, 2011 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

The federal government is required to clean it up if the land is to be developed

Given our proclivity to expand, development in Arden Hills was probably inevitable – better sooner than later.

In case you’re asking why the Fed foots this bill, it’s because it was a former US Army munitions depot, and therefore their responsibility.

by Arif Hasan on May 10, 2011 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

Nice article SG

I thought I read one article (which I can’t find, but pretty sure it was the Strib) that said if the Farmer’s Market area was chosen the land already available or easily acquirable was such that they didn’t need to take on Ms. Copeland.

And it kind of would be in poor farm to kick out a charity for no reason other than a football stadium.

"Lord I pray for the eyes of an eagle, the heart of a lion and the balls of a combat helicopter pilot."

The Daily Norseman
Off Tackle Empire
SB Nation Minnesota

by Ted Glover on May 9, 2011 8:55 PM CDT reply actions  

The most recent Farmers Market Proposal...

Does not include Mary Jo Copeland’s charities. I think when she point-blank refused to talk to county chairman, Mike Opat, they realized just what a nightmare it would be to try to move her.

Life being what it is, one dreams of revenge.
- Paul Gauguin

by Skol Girl on May 9, 2011 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

mannnn....

i just want to watch some minnesota football already

by muffin man on May 9, 2011 10:15 PM CDT reply actions  

Mannn

I just want to watch Christian ponder someone’s defense already.

☠★☪My dream, is to see the Minnesota Vi♛s win a superbowl. USA- the land were dreams come true. ☀ ツ This is our ۩۩house۩

by UnBannedVikingholic on May 9, 2011 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Me too.

I’m sick to death of the lockout and all this stadium uncertainty. Give me some actual football.

Life being what it is, one dreams of revenge.
- Paul Gauguin

by Skol Girl on May 9, 2011 10:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

This is the greatest offseason EVER!

LOL… >weeps<

Once upon a time, some guys from this group called "Navy SEAL Team Six" flew in on some helicopters into Pakistan. 40 minutes later... they flew out with the dead corpse of Osama bin Laden, with two bullet holes in his hea... wait, what? They also burned the mansion he was staying at to the ground?
AWESOME!
Daily Norseman

by KJSegall on May 10, 2011 7:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

LOL

Hilarious.

I’ll file that under “pro” for Arden Hills.

by Arif Hasan on May 10, 2011 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

That's...

a rec.

Dear Yahoo! Sports: Please stop using that picture of Brett Favre holding his shoulder on the sidelines whenever you write about the Vikings. That is all, thank you.
Daily Norseman

by KJSegall on May 10, 2011 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

+1 Arden Hills

Just from Google-mapping it out, Arden Hills looks like a perfect compromise site between Minneapolis and St Paul, equidistant at around 16-20 miles away from the downtown areas, and 15-20 minutes drive. If the proposal included funds for, say a light rail extension of the Hiawatha line out to Arden Hills, that would be an economy booster all along the route and help cover the access issue. It seems like this could be a serious development opportunity for the area, well beyond just the Vikings’ needs.

Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!

by DCPurple on May 10, 2011 8:26 AM CDT reply actions  

No doubt

The Arden hills Area has been off limits to developers b/c of the cleanup issues. It seems to me (im a real estate investor) that this area is a fantastic fit. The surrounding area will grow rapidly as a result of the land being “cleaned up”. the traffic count going by the location is very high and there is not allot of shopping/convenience stops within about 10 minutes of there. The area will grow rapidly after the clean up is done regardless of wether or not the Stadium is built there. So lets put the stadium there and make a full complex for the fans and players.

“If you build it they will come”

"If you've got them by the balls their hearts and minds will follow."

John Wayne

by just another viking on May 10, 2011 8:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

Downtown better for the state, Arden better for the Vikings

Arden hills is better for the Vikings because the area is more raw (for Zygi’s development firm) and because there would be plenty of tailgating and because they won’t be homeless for 3 years waiting for the Dome site.

Downtown is better for the city and the state because it is near our other entertainment options. It gives out of towners particularly nice advantages. It has more hotels available for the 300+ a year events.

But at the same time, Arden Hills isn’t THAT far away from downtown and if there are some buses and shuttle services during big events it can lighten the negative effect of being out in the boondocks during football games.

I want it to go where the Dome is and to have a roof (non-retractable). I like this option because it is the cheapest way for us to get a multipurpose facility downtown. If we are putting it clear out in Arden Hills, then I’d say don’t even bother with a roof and lets get it on that way.

by Sand0 on May 10, 2011 1:39 PM CDT reply actions  

me thinks you forgot something.....

like the idea that the Vikings won’t be owning the land, therefore any money from real estate deals would go to the State and Ramsey county, potentially paying them back.

by Chris3 on May 10, 2011 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

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