Is it McNabb?

Obviously, the Vikings passing attack ain't exactly a symphony right now. They're currently 27th in net passing yards per attempt. But we don't need numbers to tell us that they not reminding us of 2009.

A lot of fans are ready to move on from McNabb. But how much of this stumbling start is his fault? MarkSP18 recently made note of McNabb's completion percentage being roughly his career average in a recent post, which reminded me of an old article from PFF that attempted to isolate which components of a quarterback's performance remain (relatively) stable when he switches teams. Here's some quick money quotes (skimming out the math):

What happens when a quarterback changes teams? Which performance stats remain most consistent, suggesting they are more the responsibility of the quarterback himself, and which are least consistent, suggesting that outside forces (such as teammates, game situation, and random luck) play a larger role?

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It's pretty clear which performance category is least consistent from year to year and probably belongs to the individual quarterback the least. It's probably the one the general public uses to judge a quarterback the most--interceptions. You rarely hear after a game about how the receivers caused the interceptions, or the bad luck of it all, or the game context dictated the interceptions.

At the other end of the spectrum, two performance measures stand out at the top--completion percentage and sack rate. One of those, of course, is the one passer performance measure that is not currently included in the NFL's passer rating formula.

What are McNabb's career rates in these two areas?

Completion %: 58.9%
Sack rate: 7.1%

What are McNabb's rates thus far through this short season?

Completion %: 58%
Sack rate: 9%

Now, to be clear, 2011 has offered a minimal sample size, too little to even be relevant, actually. But, statistical legitimacy aside, McNabb's basically been who he's been thus far. He's taking a few more sacks, maybe, so maybe he's been holding the ball too long, or maybe the line's just that poor, or maybe that's just a fluke.

He's still absolutely included in the team's 1/15 on 3rd down in the second halves of games, among other things. But that sort of stuff has a tendency to even out a little bit (let's hope). And I haven't found his demeanor particularly inspiring.

But the larger point is, there probably isn't a quick fix to the passing game, unfortunately. They've probably been a little unlucky (although stuff like 1/15 might get cancelled out by turnovers, which they've been decent with thus far), and you could certainly argue they could use some better playcalling. But reality is, they're probably just outmanned right now. (How's THAT for an observation?)

Now, this isn't necessarily a pro-McNabb post or anything. I'm certainly not going to argue against seeing what Ponder or Webb can do at some point this season, particularly if they can't pull out of this nosedive. But, QB performances are often part of an environment. Whatever factors are contributing to this flat passing game might equally affect Ponder/Webb as well.