In 2012, could we draft Luck if we finish last?

by Voyageur on Sep 5, 2011 9:02 AM CDT

Or maybe this should be “How the new rookie pay scale could affect future drafts?”

Jeff George was the No1 overall in the 1990 draft. This is a matter of historical record.

However, the original No1 selection belonged to the Cowboys who had drafted Steve Walsh in the supplemental draft of 1989 in R1, thus forfeiting this selection. This was despite drafting Troy Aikman with the first overall in 1989. Two R1 QBs in the same year? Madness?

The Cowboys went on to have a 1-15 season with Walsh interestingly winning their only game, but 4 games into the 1990 season he was traded to the Saints for first, second and third round picks in 1991. Along with our erroneous Walker trade this allowed them to build a roster which won the SuperBowl in 1992, 1993, and 1995. A seemingly crazy decision by Jimmy Johnson yet his modern day equivalent Bill Belichick makes similar bold decisions and look at their record. Fortune favours the bold, those who think outside the box rather than those who conform.

The introduction of the new NFL pay scale for rookies may have a dramatic effect and make such boldness easier.

Contrast 2010 with 2011:

2010: 1st overall Sam Bradford $78m/6years with $50m guaranteed
2011: 1st overall Cam Newton $22m/4years all guaranteed

2010: 12th overall Ryan Mathews $25.75m/5years with $15.5m guaranteed
2011: 12th overall Christian Ponder $11m/4years all guaranteed

The new rookie pay scale may have an interesting impact on future drafts. Errors or mistakes made in previous drafts can be more easily rectified. Even if we think there might be a 20% hike in rookie salaries next year, Luck would still get less than $30m, a ridiculously low amount compared to Bradford. Luck and Ponder would be getting less overall than what Bradford had guaranteed.

If we did finish last would Frazier survive? New regimes often mean new QBs. Even if he did, could he pass up on one of the best QB prospects in the last decade?

We do have needs at LT, WR, WLB, and arguably S, DT and CB, but there will be some potentially interesting players in free agency. And if we were able to move Ponder for picks in 2013, then we could address some of the issues then. What Johnson did cleverly was to trade Walsh quickly before the rest of the league caught on to his averageness rather than keep him riding the pine

We have some great talent on this team but also areas of incredible weakness. Charlie Johnson is an awful pick up at LT (I wanted Ryan Harris and would pick him up as soon as he recovers from his back surgery) – Manning got battered last year and he gets rid of the ball far more quickly than McNabb does - Pat Williams has not been properly replaced, nor Ben Leber, Winfield is getting older as is Steve Hutchinson, Bernard Berian and Mike Jenkins scare nobody. But looking at the draft class of 2012 some of these areas can be addressed on Day2 and Day3 as well. Receivers such as Michael Floyd and Justin Criner will likely be there in Round 2 as may OTs Nate Potter, Levy Adcock, Andrew Datko, Ricky Wagner and Bobbie Massie. Big DTs such as Derek Wolfe and Devon Still could be around in the middle of the draft as well as WLBs like Nigel Bradburn and Zaviar Gooden. A personal favourite CB/FS Trumaine Johnson will like be around on Day3 as will the hard hitting Sean Cattouse of California. At the moment we have 5 Day3 selections.

Whilst it is possible and maybe easier to trade down from the No1 overall pick and maybe get an LT like Matt Kalil, or Jonathan Martin, I often doubt that teams may willing do that thinking we must not take Luck. I say – take Luck – see if we can get a LT in Round 2 – if not pick up Harris. And wait until Fluker or Henderson become available, trading Ponder for some Day2 and Day3 selections in the 2013 draft.

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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no guarantee

Luck could turn out to be a bust, it happens all the time.
I dont think it would be a good idea to trade for another QB when we just picked one in the first round. The cowboys got lucky IMO. besides we aleady have 2 Young QB’s we are developing.
Ponder may not see the field baring injury so we may not be able to see how much he’s learned. It could hurt his confidence by bringing in another rookie.
Who would start if we did draft Luck? we would probably still need a vet, so keep mcnabb then make ponder #2 and luck #3? or would we trade ponder for less value than our pick last year, like you say, then start Luck? I dont like the idea of starting a rookie right away. And we could keep grandpa mcnabb around to start because right now he looks like a spring chicken compared to favre. I just think that puts off the real problem, the O-line, and puts us one year further out from having a developed young qb.

I dont think we will have to worry about drafting luck unless his stock falls considerably. our team looks improved from last year, so I dont see us winning less than 6 games. so if we were to have a shot at him we would have to give up quite a bit to drop from the 13-17 draft area to #1 overall.

by reebs on Sep 5, 2011 11:53 AM CDT reply actions

Ponder

Once Locker went, I always thought Ponder was a panic selection. I thought Cameron Jordan or Nick Fairley should have been the pick.

Luck is regarded as likely to be a bust as Peyton Manning. If his upper level is far above Ponder then he is someone we should consider.

The financial loss of giving up on Ponder early is far less than it has been historically.

I think any No1 selection as Luck would start from Day1 so McNabb would be history. He’s only cost us a couple of 6th round picks anyway. Luck, Ponder and Webb would be the roster trio.

Lets say we trade Ponder for a 2nd and 4th in 2013 …. our 2013 draft would be 4 picks on Day1 and Day2 allowing us to easily move back into R1 and take two elite picks ….

2012 could look like – 1. Luck, 2. Floyd. 2, Bradham

2013 could look like – 1. Henderson, 1 Worf, 2 DT or DE

The question is whether Luck’s ceiling is so much higher than Ponder that it is worth taking the loss on Ponder.

After all the Chargers still drafted Rivers despite having Brees who went on to have a Pro-Bowl season and eventually was lost for nothing.

by Voyageur on Sep 5, 2011 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions

The biggest problem with this scenario of us drafting Luck at #1 is that...

We’ll have the worst record in the NFL this season.

Personally, I just don’t see that happening. We aren’t the best team in the NFL, but we certainly aren’t the worst team going into the season either.

by Norse Force on Sep 5, 2011 1:59 PM CDT reply actions

We are however

a team that could be easily derailed with a few key injuries. If the secondary and O-line go down, this team could possibly finish the the #1 pick. With the lack of depth at those positions, we need our starters to stay healthy.

by REVENGE4KLUWE on Sep 5, 2011 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions

Even then I can't see us worse off than Seattle or Carolina.

We would have to start digging to reach the depths both of those teams have already attained.

I'm like the Dali Lama of kicking ass

by Grime on Sep 6, 2011 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions

Seahawks 2010

They said that about the Seahawks last year and they proceeded to make the Playoffs and Knock Off the Saints.

The Panthers were much better than their record last year but were coached by Dead Man Walking, who the players knew were in his final season. They won’t have a Fins like turnaround but I see them being .500

by Voyageur on Sep 6, 2011 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions

plus, no way carolina drafts a #1 qb again next year...

unless cam newton gets his limbs ripped off.

warcraft, you are my guitar hero !!!

by danny lloyd on Sep 6, 2011 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions

lol

I’m pretty sure a lot of people said that last year too :D

I'm like the Dali Lama of kicking ass

by Grime on Sep 7, 2011 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions

I would like to have luck

but it’s going to take a lot more value than we would get for trading ponder.

“The question is whether Luck’s ceiling is so much higher than Ponder that it is worth taking the loss on Ponder”

I dont think it would be unless we have a completely horrible season that gives us a chance at a #1 overall….which is possible but I’m pretty sure we wont draft below #10 at worst this upcoming year. Frazier doesnt seem like the desparate type and I think he will be loyal to ponder and give the guy chance instead of throwing all the chips in on luck.
Sure there is a smaller chance of flop with luck than with many of the recent top recent qb’s but there is ALWAYS a risk of busting. I’m not the gambling type so if it was my choice, we wouldnt take him baring that horrible season.

For me I would prefer them shoring up the O-line in the first round which I felt they should have done this year. I was one of them that didnt like that they took ponder where they did. I have since changed my mind and feel that he might just be the qbotf. Sure maybe the ceiling isnt that of luck, but he could potentially be a top 5 in the league IF his development goes right. the kids smart, accurate, mobile, and seems to be a pretty good leader. I’ll give him a chance to show what he’s got.

by reebs on Sep 5, 2011 2:03 PM CDT reply actions

this was meant to be a reply to voyageurs last post

it’s a good article BTW, I can tell you put some time into it.

by reebs on Sep 5, 2011 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions

Could we have a horrible season?

We’ve not replaced Ben Leber or Pat Williams. We’ve signed a turnstyle of a LT who managed to get a QB with a fast released injured and he’s not protecting a guy whose holding onto the ball too long throughout his career, we’ve lost a top young WR, and our leading (only?) starting quality DT has a 4games suspension.

We might have a Seattle Seahawks season and make the playoffs …. or we could have a Carolina Panthers type season. I mean the Dolphins had quite a reasonable roster coming into 2007 and simply imploded going 1-15. They’d been 6-10 in 2006, but brought Parcells in for 2008 and went 2008.

We start the season minus both Williams boys for the first 4 games. Buffalo will tell you what its like to be run all over – we face the Chargers, Bucs, Lions, and Chiefs and there is some talented runners there. We could go 0-4. I see only our games against the Raiders, Panthers and Broncos as being games we should win. A 3-13 season will have us in the Top3 I reckon

by Voyageur on Sep 5, 2011 3:22 PM CDT reply actions

Trade the first pick

A team would be willing to give us 2 firsts, 2 seconds, 2 thirds, a fourth, and a fifth much like the Ricky Williams or even…dare I say it, Herschell Walker trade. Luck is supposed to be one of the best QB prospects in many many years. If we trade him away we could solidify at many other positions.

by StuckInCA on Sep 5, 2011 4:26 PM CDT reply actions

Yup, we trade and load up

There is a lot of talent to be had in next years draft, and we do have some needs that need to be addressed.

by nmvikesfan on Sep 5, 2011 11:48 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't think we'll get the first pick...

…but if we do, I don’t see how we pass up on Luck if he has another good year this year.

by kcskol on Sep 5, 2011 5:21 PM CDT reply actions

Unless....

Webb and Ponder both go down in the Bermuda Triangle….
We better not farkle pull some crap ala Carolina and Draft a QB 3 yrs in a row….I dont care if we go 0-16

I dont know if I should warn Erin Rodgers he has a dead cat on his upper lip or just let it hang there till Jared Allen rips it off on 10/23?

by LeeleeX on Sep 5, 2011 10:17 PM CDT reply actions

Unless

Luck is so outstanding he is like comparing Aikman and Walsh.

Ask any coach who they’d prefer – Troy Aikman or Steve Walsh? I bet 100% of the responses would be Aikman.

But don’t forget that Ponder will still have tradeable value himself as Walsh did.

by Voyageur on Sep 6, 2011 4:48 AM CDT up reply actions

He will?

If he sits on the bench all year?
Looks there is only one Kolb sucker born every 40 years…that ship has sailed.
I dont care if he pooped gold nuggets…
After all the crap we have gone thru this year, I dont wanna see us draft another QB for a bit.
Not to mention, he can be valued like a Troy Aikman, that doesnt mean he wont be a Leif.
We could practically get a stadium for 1 st pick.

I dont know if I should warn Erin Rodgers he has a dead cat on his upper lip or just let it hang there till Jared Allen rips it off on 10/23?

by LeeleeX on Sep 6, 2011 7:26 AM CDT up reply actions

Ok

Matt Cassels got traded for a 2nd and 5th after only a season on the field
Charlie Whitehurst with virtually no game time gathered a 2nd and a 3rd
Matt Schaub was worth two 2nd rounders having played little for the Falcons

Just over 10years ago, Rob Johnson was drafted 9th overall on the back of a single game.

Lightning strikes more frequently than you might believe.

And there are a number of teams who have spent multiple picks on QBs in close succession. Take the Packers who had Rogers but drafted Brohm and Flynn. Though Brohm was released, they actually had offers for him.

by Voyageur on Sep 6, 2011 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions

I dont even like the kid that much

But the fact people are so willing to trade him away for anothe rookie is flat out stupid hilarious…
Cassels was trained under BB, im pretty sure he could get atleast a nice early 3rd rounder for his cat if he tried.
Whitehurst who was picked up by Seattle? Ya they make GREAT QB choices, no argument there (rolls eyes)….

Schaub, who is he, what has he done lately?

Philly got like 72 virgins for Kolb….and Kolb got a killer contract.

I dont know if I should warn Erin Rodgers he has a dead cat on his upper lip or just let it hang there till Jared Allen rips it off on 10/23?

by LeeleeX on Sep 6, 2011 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions

Look at the Bills for an example.

Having draft Lynch in 2007, they found themselves drafting where Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Meadenhall, and Chris Johnson. They stuck with Lynch who ends up getting trading for a measly 4th rounder and take McKelvin who couldn’t catch a cold.

Just because you have drafted a prospect doesn’t mean you shouldn’t look to draft ‘elite’ talent if that player becomes available.

The most successful teams adopted the BPA and work around it.

by Voyageur on Sep 6, 2011 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions

See what teams would offer for Ponder?

We were drafting at No1, and took Luck, at the end of Day1 and into the evening I would expect that we might field a number of calls related to Ponder especially if he doesn’t have a ‘Clausen-type’ season.

At the moment Foles and Cousins are next up outside the ‘Big3’ and Ponder might be attractive to these teams – Kansas City, Buffalo, New Orleans even Dallas. I think we might get a type of Charlie Whitehurst return, a 2nd and a 2nd the following year.

Drafts might look something like this -

2012
R1 Luck
R2 WR (maybe Floyd?)
R2 (from Ponder) WLB (Lavonte David?)
R3 DT(Devon Still?)

I’d rather go WR in R2 as 2013 looks weak, maybe as poor as 2008

2013
R1 (our R1 and Ponder R2 to move up) LT – Fluker or Henderson
R1 (our R2 and R3 to move up) ILB (Tom Worf?) to replace Henderson

Ponder has become a DT to pair with Kevin, and helped us move up for an elite LT – we may have lost a little on the draft value chart but …….

by Voyageur on Sep 6, 2011 4:33 AM CDT reply actions

If my aunt had balls

She’d be my uncle.

Vikings won’t finish last. End of story. They never finish last and this team on paper should win at least 6 games. Has everyone forgot that last season’s results had a lot to do with stuff that they shouldn’t have to deal with this year?

by Sand0 on Sep 6, 2011 7:20 AM CDT reply actions

What we've lost

A decent LT and replaced him with maybe the worst LT available in free agency
A starting DT
A starting WLB
A starting WR
A starting QB

of which only the QB slot might have been adequately replaced if the poor play of the LT doesn’t guarantee an early visit to IR

We’ve become a lot less talented than last pre-season

by Voyageur on Sep 6, 2011 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions

I see this differently...

We may still only win 6 games, but going into this season we are much improved over last year.

I will concede a downgrade at LT, but McKinnie was lazy and only adequate. Charlie Johnson could become an upgrade due to hard work and determination. He looked excellent in the last preseason game and hopefully that will continue.

At DT we are way better this year (after game 2), unless Kevin Williams’ injury doesn’t heal. I love Pat Williams and he was an awesome Viking, but in my opinion he didn’t earn or deserve a roster spot in 2010. He was constantly outplayed by Kennedy, Guion and Evans, and consistently gave up big runs.

WLB is a wash. I liked Leber, but he was frequently out of position against the pass. This preseason Erin Henderson has been a playmaker, and looks to be an improvement, even if he might share Leber’s pass weakness. He’s young and should continue to improve. I would only call this a wash because of Leber’s experience.

Compared to last season, we didn’t lose a starting WR, we lost a WR on IR. We are a quantum leap better at this position, even with Berrian starting, than we were last year.

We could devote an entire thread to the QB comparison, but I think McNabb is a huge improvement over the Favre of 2010. I think you either completely agree with this, or you completely disagree. In my mind, it’s not even close… McNabb 2011 > Favre 2010.

When 2011 is in the books I believe we will prove to be stronger at every one of these positions than we were in 2010. Regardless, there is 0% chance that we have the #1 pick in the 2012 draft.

by Jshore on Sep 6, 2011 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs