FanPost

Projecting Ponder: 2012 Stats

I'm sorry to piggyback on your post, CCNorsemen, but I after I saw your great analysis, I decided to share some analysis that I have been working on, as it seems like it would be a good companion piece to your post.

While CCNorsemen's post looked back at this past season and what might have been for Ponder, I have been looking into the future and what we might expect from Ponder next season.

My analysis began with amassing every quarterback since 1998 that started at least 9 games in both his rookie and sophomore year. I ended up with 20 quarterbacks. One caveat to this is I included Stafford, who started 10 games his rookie year, but only played in 3 games his 2nd year due to a shoulder injury. I used his 3rd year stats (this past season) in place of his 2nd year stats. It could be argued that his progression from 1st year to 2nd* year is not indicative of a quarterback's normal maturity, since he had an extra year of seasoning while sitting on the bench. But I decided to use him.

The stats I tracked were Completion Percentage, Yards Per Attempt (YPA),Touchdowns Per Attempt (TD%) and Interceptions Per Attempt (INT%). Everything is in Per Attempt averages, since attempts can vary widely, and raw totals are not always indicative of true performance.

Here are the stats from the 20 quarterbacks:

First Year Second Year
Player Comp % YPA TD % INT % Comp % YPA TD % INT %
Stafford 53.3 6.0 3.4 5.3 63.7 7.5 6.0 2.3
Sanchez 53.8 6.7 3.3 5.5 54.8 6.5 3.4 2.6
Freeman 54.5 6.4 3.4 6.2 61.4 7.3 5.3 1.3
Ryan 61.1 7.9 3.7 2.5 58.3 6.5 4.9 3.1
Flacco 60.0 6.9 3.3 2.8 63.1 7.2 4.2 2.4
Edwards 56.1 6.1 2.6 3.0 65.5 7.2 2.9 2.7
Young 51.5 6.2 3.4 3.6 62.3 6.7 2.4 4.5
Smith 50.9 5.3 0.6 6.7 58.1 6.5 3.6 3.6
E. Manning 48.2 5.3 3.0 4.6 52.8 6.8 4.3 3.1
Roethlisberger 66.4 8.9 5.8 3.7 62.7 8.9 6.3 3.4
Boller 51.8 5.6 3.1 4.0 55.6 5.5 2.8 2.4
Leftwich 57.2 6.7 3.3 3.8 60.5 6.7 3.4 2.3
Palmer 60.9 6.7 4.2 4.2 67.8 7.5 6.3 2.4
Carr 52.5 5.8 2.0 3.4 56.6 6.8 3.1 4.4
Harrington 50.1 5.3 2.8 3.7 55.8 5.2 3.1 4.0
McNabb 49.1 4.4 3.7 3.2 58.0 5.9 3.7 2.3
McNown 54.0 6.2 3.4 4.3 55.0 5.9 2.9 3.2
Batch 57.1 7.2 3.6 2.0 55.9 7.2 4.8 2.6
Leaf 45.3 5.3 0.8 6.1 50.0 5.8 3.4 5.6
P. Manning 56.7 6.5 4.5 4.9 62.1 7.8 4.9 2.8
Ponder 54.3 6.4 4.5 4.5

The quarterbacks are in chronological order. To give you an idea of how Ponder's rookie season compared to the others, this is where he places in each category:

10th out of 21 in Comp% (between Freeman and McNown)

10th out of 21 in YPA (between Freeman and McNown again)

2nd out of 21 in TD% (between Roethlisberger and P. Manning)

8th out of 21 in INT% (between E. Manning and McNown)

Next, I calculated an average Percent Change from 1st year to 2nd year. I took the average of each stat from 1st year numbers, and the average of each stat from 2nd year numbers, and calculated the Percent Change from 1st to 2nd. Also, I removed 4 outliers from each average. I removed the top 2 Percent Changes of YPA, and the bottom 2 Percent Changes of YPA, etc. Some stats were skewing the overall averages, such as Alex Smith's TD% increasing 500% (0.6 in 1st year, 3.6 in 2nd year).

Average Change from 1st Year to 2nd Year

Comp %

YPA

TD %

INT %

8.7%

8.6%

24.6%

-24.3%

Next I applied these average changes to Ponder's rookie stats.

Ponder 2012 Projected Stats

Comp %

YPA

TD %

INT %

59.0

6.9

5.6

3.4

To expand these to raw totals, we need to make an assumption about how many pass attempts we will have. The Vikings as a team had 510 attempts this year. With 510 sttempts, his numbers would look like this:

Comp %

Yards

TD

INT

59.0

3526

28

17

We can probably assume that if Ponder plays the whole year, he will have more attempts than this. He will be trusted more in his 2nd year, and with AP potentially missing a few games, the offense may rely slightly more on the passing game. This past season, Freeman, Sanchez, and Flacco all had around 550 attempts. This seems like a reasonable number. With 550 pass attempts:

Comp %

Yards

TD

INT

59.0

3802

31

19

Comparing to all 2011 quarterbacks, this is where he would have ranked with these numbers:

21st in Completion Percentage (between Cassel and Dalton)

12th in Yards (between Fitzpatrick and Flacco)

5th in Touchdowns (between Brady and Romo)

5th in Interceptions (between Rivers and Sanchez)

***Please be reminded that this is a projection, not a prediction. This is assuming Ponder progresses from Year 1 to Year 2 in an average amount. Some quarterbacks significantly outgain the average, and some significantly undergain.the average. His 2012 stats could and probably will be quite different from this projection. This is mostly just a study of how much a quarterback can be expected to progress from Year 1 to Year 2.***

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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