Vikings Offseason Plan v2.0. The 3-4 Defense Switch
by MarkSP18 on Jan 11, 2012 9:23 PM CST
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PrintNow that the season has mercifully come to an end, we can start the rebuilding process and offer up all kinds of scenarios.
In other words, play Wanna Be GM. One of my favortie pasttimes as many of you know.
Before I begin I would like to have a moment of silence and for those of you that may be enjoyng an adult beverage (or any beverage), please pour out a little bit in honor of The People's Champion!
Now that we have paid some respect I will move on to the fantasy.
So why would the Vikings switch to the 3-4 you ask? Well it has been rumored a little and Spielman did say that "nothing is off the table" which was after he told Ponder he was not taking a QB in the first round. So believe what you want. The reason why I think the 3-4 makes sense is because of the current personnel on the team. You have Everson Griffen who needs to get on the field and Jasper Brinkley. The two of them could somehow work their way into the lineup playing a majority of snaps in a 3-4 defense. I think that Ballard and Guion would be good 3-4 DEs with their size. Those positions will rotate in and out anyway. The secondary does not matter because it needs a complete overhaul anyway.
Here is an article with some very good information regarding the rules ... http://www.askthecommish.com/salarycap/faq.asp
I will leave this in all my plans as I think it is useful information for those of you who will come up with your own plans.
Just remember that the salary floor is 89% of the cap which for 2011 was $120.375M per team. But this does not start until 2013. It is important when coming up with scenarios because if you trade away or release high priced players you need some to take their place and you want them to be worth the money.
Here is a good breakdown of the current cap situation done by DJSkillz http://www.dailynorseman.com/2012/1/5/2685018/a-look-at-the-2012-minnesota-vikings-cap-situation
Thus I do not need to replicate his fine efforts. I will just go with his numbers.
This particular plan involves the Vikings moving to the 3-4 defense. It will have some unpleasant and unacceptable moves for some.
Here are the free agents in 2012 that I would not offer a new contract (at least not right away).
Jim Kleinsasser 34 * retired
E.J. Henderson 31
Visanthe Shiancoe 31
Benny Sapp 30
Greg Camarillo 29
Kenny Onatolu 29
Fred Evans 28
Eric Frampton 27
Devin Aromashodu 27
Xavier Adibi 27
Tyrell Johnson 26
Husain Abdullah 26
Letroy Guion 24
Erin Henderson 25
Matt Katula 29
Scott Kooistra 31
Jarrad Page 27
Sage Rosenfels 33
Lorenzo Booker 27
Patrick Brown 25
This is 20 players. I think that Letroy Guion, Erin Henderson, Patrick Brown, and Sage Rosenfels all could get resigned but not until after free agency begins and their contracts would not be guaranteed. Thus they have to make the team (i.e., the final cut).
These are the players I would release because of age, salary, injury, or lack of talent or some combination of all of that.
Steve Hutchinson 34
Anthony Herrera 31
Cedric Griffin 29
Antoine Winfield 34
That is another 4 players.
That is a total of 24 players I am recommending the team replaces with only 5 possibly coming back.
In DJSkillz post he thinks that after all his cuts there could be about 41 mil available for free agents. So the Vikings should sign plenty of players after releasing the above players.
Looking at free agency there are plenty of players who would help the Vikings. But these players are going to cost a pretty penny. The question is which free agents are worth the money? That is the key when signing free agents. With the amount of money paid to the player you want them to be able to contribute for a few years at the very least. With that in mind I am targeting some players who are young and that I feel have some upside to their games.
In my first version I included some of the contracts that free agents received prior to this season. Here is the link ...
http://www.dailynorseman.com/2011/12/1/2603306/vikings-offseason-plan-v1-0
So the free agents I think the Vikings have a good chance at signing are below with their age and a potential salary offer based on free agent signings last year. Keep in mind that the Vikings MAY have to overpay a little to get players to come here and to get the players they want which is risky.
FS - Michael Griffin 26 6-0 202 4.45 - 5 year 37.5 mil
I like Griffin because he is consistent with his passes defended (PDs) and picks (INTs). I thought about Tyvon Branch as well but his PDs and INTs are not too good. He does get a lot of tackles. Plus I think the Vikings will role with Raymond & Sanford battling for the other spot. Reggie Nelson is also intriguing as he seems to have turned his career around in Cincinnati.
CB – Brandon Carr 25 6-3 207 4.43 - 5 year 37.5 mil
I like Carr because he is consistent with his PDs and INTs. I also like Richard Marshall who always gets lots of tackles and PDs and INTs. I could see the Vikings signing two free agent corners because I am releasing both Winfield and Griffin in this plan. It is an option.
DE - Adam Carriker 27 6-6 315 4.90 - 5 year 25 mil
I like Carriker. He has excellent size and is stout vs the run. He also managed 5.5 sacks this year. Ideally, I would want to sign Calais Campbell but I think Arizona will franchise tag him if they cannot agree on a deal prior to free agency. He is too good to let go and he will be signed for some big bucks.
DT - Paul Soliai 27 6-4 355 5.10 - 4 year 28 mil
I think Soliai may cost a bit more. He is excellent taking up two blockers. How could he not? Other candidates are Aubrayo Franklin or Antonio Garay but they are over 30. I think that the Vikings would keep Ayodele if they move to a 3-4. Ayodele may fit better as a true NT and he can rotate with Soliai.
WR – Pierre Garcon 26 6-0 210 4.42 - 5 year 27.5 mil
I like Garcon because he is fast and has been productive even without Peyton. I also thought about Vincent Jackson, Marcus Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Mario Manningham, Steve Johnson, and DeSean Jackson. I really would like to get DeSean but I do not think Ponder throws a very good deep ball at this point in time. VJack and Colston would be nice but they are younger and better versions of Jenkins obviously. I just think it will be hard to get one of these top WRs to want to come play in Minnesota on a rebuilding team.
TE - John Carlson 27 6-5 251 4.72 - 3 year 10.5 mil
I think Carlson would be a nice replacement for Shiancoe. Since Musgrave likes the two TE set, Carlson would be another young TE that has proven he can perform in the NFL.
I think that I would try and resign Letroy Guion to rotate in at the 3-4 DE spot and Erin H to play ILB in the 3-4. I do like Dan Connor as a possible free agent but with Greenway moving inside along with Erin H and Brinkley it may be too many players there.
So now to the draft.
I would trade Jared Allen to Seattle for the #12 pick and a 2013 3rd.
I would trade Kevin Williams to Philadelphia for pick #45
I would trade Chris Cook and a 2013 5th round pick to the Rams for pick #66
I think the first two picks are Indianapolis taking Andrew Luck QB obviously and St Louis taking Justin Blackmon WR. Right now it seems that many people feel that the Rams will take Matt Kalil OT and just as many think they will take Blackmon. I think they go WR because they are going to probably lose Brandon Lloyd in free agency, could have difficulty attracting any big time free agents (like us), have drafted tackles early in the 2009 and 2010 drafts, and still could get one at the top of the second round if they want.
So that leaves the Vikings in a pretty good position. They can just take the obvious choice in Matt Kalil or put on their poker hats and try and make a deal. I think that is what they will do if they are good enough.
I would trade the #3 pick to the Browns for their #4, #36, and #117 picks. I think that the Vikings are going to have to be on top of their poker game to pull off this deal because they have to convince Cleveland that another team is trying to move up which should not be hard to do. The deal gets done in this fantasy draft. :)
With the picks here is what I would do …
4. Matt Kalil OT USC 6-6 295 5.05
The Vikings get extra picks and the player they wanted all along. Kalil will slide right into the starting job at left tackle. He will have some growing pains most likely but nothing out of the ordinary.
12. David DeCastro OG Stanford 6-5 312 5.22
The Vikings get the best interior lineman in the draft according to most draft experts.
35. Mark Barron SS Alabama 6-2 218 4.56
The Vikings need someone to push Sanford. Barron will probably start but at worst he will be ready very soon.
36. Dwight Jones WR North Carolina 6-4 225 4.53
A really productive receiver for North Carolina this past season and it would be a mild surprise if he was available still. He had 85 catches for 1196 yards and 12 TDs. Not bad at all. I can only hope he makes it to this pick.
45. Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina 6-1 193 4.52
The Vikings need another corner with the trade of Cook and the released players above. Hopefully, Gilmore will provide the Vikings with a taller CB that can handle tall receivers. This is another pick that probably will not be here.
66. Josh Chapman DT Alabama 6-1 310 5.02
The Vikings need a young NT to groom and rotate with Soliai and Ayodele. Ayodele only has another two years on his deal so getting Chapman gives good depth to the NT position.
Note: I would take Alameda Ta'amu here if I thought he would be available. And I would not hesitate. Of course I have been wrong before.
67. Derek Wolfe DE Cincinnati 6-5 305 5.16
I like Wolfe a lot. He was the co-Defensive Player of the Year in the Big East and for good reason. He had 70 total tackles with 21.5 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks. He would be a very nice 3-4 DE. Right now he is ranked as a 6th rounder but I think that will change by the time the draft rolls around.
comp. Keenan Robinson LB 6-3 240 4.68
I am hoping that Robinson is still here at this point. I like his game and agressiveness. I think he can play inside or outside in the 3-4.
99. Shea McClellin OLB/DE 6-3 255 4.74
The Vikings would need another OLB/DE prospect. McClellin played well for Boise and all over the defense. Just what you need in a 3-4 defense. A backup who probably will start sooner than later.
117. Casey Hayward CB 5-11 188 4.53
Hayward is a nice corner that hopefully can help out in the slot. This extra pick comes in handy allowing the Vikings to add more quality depth.
131. Joe Adams WR Arkansas 5-11 190 4.38
I like Adams and feel he can bring an extra dimension to the offense. He would be a nice back up for Percy in the slot. Plus he is an excellent punt returner.
164. Evan Rodriguez FB/HB Temple 6-2 250 4.67
I like Rodriguez a lot and compare him to Aaron Hernandez. I think he can be that HB the Vikings need. D'Imperio will have some tough competition.
195. Jaye Howard DE 6-3 303 5.02
Another DE prospect that could fit well as a 3-4 DE.
210. Sammy Brown OLB/DE Houston 6-2 240 4.67
Another pass rusher to add to the mix. He had 30 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks. He could be a situational type pass rusher to start.
219. Robert Golden FS/CB Arizona 5-11 200 4.54
I like Golden in that he played safety at Arizona for the most part. A decent player to develop
comp. Josh Norman CB Coastal Carolina 6-1 190 4.56
A First TEam FCS All American that could be a surprise.
I like these UDFAs ...
Hebron Fangupo DT BYU 6-1 331 5.08
BJ Coleman QB Chattanooga 6-3 220 4.93
Kelvin Beachum OG SMU 6-3 306 5.35
Dominque Hamilton DE Missouri 6-5 305 5.24
Chigbo Anunoby DT Morehouse 6-4 324 5.??
Desmond Marrow CB Toledo 6-2 210 4.52
Micah Pellerin CB/FS Hampton 6-0 195 4.49
Cordarro Law DE/OLB Southern Mississippi 6-2 261 4.67
John Potter K Western Michigan 6-2 209
Here is what the roster would look like
QB – Ponder, Webb, Rosenfels
RB – Peterson, Gerhart, Todman, King (PS)
FB – D’Imperio, Rodriguez
TE – Rudolph, Carlson, Schuler, Reisner (PS)
WR – Harvin, Jenkins, Garcon, Jones, Adams, Burton, Arceneaux (PS)
C – Sullivan, Fusco
G – Decastro, Johnson, Berger, DeGeare (PS)
T – Kalil, Loadholt, Love, Brown
P – Kluwe
LS – Loeffler
K – Longwell
DE – Carriker, Ballard, Guion, Wolfe, Howard (PS)
NT – Soliai, Ayodele, Chapman
OLB - Robison, Griffen, McClellin, Brown (PS)
LB – Greenway, Erin Henderson, Brinkley, Robinson
CB – Carr, Gilmore, Allen, Sherels, Burton, Hayward, Norman (PS)
FS – Griffin, Raymond, Golden (PS)
SS – Barron, Sanford
Well there it is. I am not sure I like this too much though because where will the pass rush come from. The hope is that Griffen will be able to provide that rush. But who knows about that. It all depends on if Allen will play in the 3-4 defense. If he refuses then the Vikings have no choice. I personally think that it would not affect Allen much at all. He would be used similar to the way Dallas uses DeMarcus Ware and he managed 19.5 sacks this past year. I really do not see how he would not be rushing the passer just as often as he does now.
Here is an alternate draft plan that includes keeping Allen (and extending his deal). This would still include the same free agents from above.
In the draft I would still make the trade with Cleveland and trade Cook to the Rams and then do this …
4. Matt Kalil OT USC 6-6 295 5.05
35. Mark Barron SS Alabama 6-2 218 4.56
36. Dwight Jones WR North Carolina 6-4 225 4.53
45. Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina 6-1 193 4.52
66. Josh Chapman DT Alabama 6-1 310 5.02
67. Kevin Zeitler OG Wisconsin 6-4 318 5.26
comp. Keenan Robinson LB 6-3 240 4.68
99. Shea McClellin OLB 6-3 255 4.74
117. Casey Hayward CB 5-11 188 4.53
131. Joe Adams WR Arkansas 5-11 190 4.38
164. Evan Rodriguez FB/HB Temple 6-2 250 4.67
195. Jaye Howard DE 6-3 303 5.02
210. Sammy Brown OLB Houston 6-2 240 4.67
219. Robert Golden FS/CB 5-11 200 4.54
comp. Josh Norman CB Coastal Carolina 6-1 190 4.56
Here is what the roster would look like
QB – Ponder, Webb, Rosenfels
RB – Peterson, Gerhart, Todman, King (PS)
FB – D’Imperio, Rodriguez
TE – Rudolph, Carlson, Schuler, Reisner (PS)
WR – Harvin, Jenkins, Garcon, Jones, Adams, Burton, Arceneaux (PS)
C – Sullivan, Fusco
G – Johnson, Berger, Zeitler, DeGeare (PS)
T – Kalil, Loadholt, Love, Brown
P – Kluwe
LS – Loeffler
K – Longwell
DE – Carriker, Ballard, Guion, Howard (PS)
NT – Soliai, Ayodele, Chapman
OLB - Allen, Robison, Griffen, McClellin, Brown (PS)
LB – Greenway, Erin Henderson, Brinkley, Robinson
CB – Carr, Gilmore, Allen, Sherels, Burton, Hayward, Norman (PS)
FS – Griffin, Raymond, Golden (PS)
SS – Barron, Sanford
I would have to choose the first option because the players have already said they are not interested in a 3-4 defense.
I think it is safe to say that I should not quit my day job. :)
This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.
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Comments
I like it..
The main reason I don’t like Michael Griffin (FS) is because he’s so inconsistent. He will look like a pro bowl player for 3 or 4 weeks and then he’ll be non-existent for the next 5 weeks. He’s got skills, but I think I’d rather have TyVon Branch who’s consistently great in run defense and average in pass defense…
In my post on another FanPost I had a lot of the same FA’s. I didn’t take into consideration the move to the 3-4, which would probably make sense right now… It’s tough to trade a guy like Jared Allen, but I think when you can turn him into David DeCastro and a future 3rd, it’s something we almost have to do. DeCastro would do so much more for this team over the next 10 years than Jared Allen. Even 3 years from now, I think DeCastro will be more valuable to the team than JA… It’s tough to trade superstars, but sometimes it’s best for the future of the team…
Wouldn't you take
“pro bowl for 3 or 4 weeks then he’ll be non-existent”
over
“Wait, we have safeties? AND they are allowed to break up passes?”
by Jepp The Viking on Jan 12, 2012 10:10 AM CST up reply actions
Haha, yes I would...
I was comparing Michael Griffin to TyVon Branch.
Michael Griffin is the “pro-bowl for 3 or 4 weeks and then non-existent” and
TyVonn Branch is “pro-bowl level run defense, average pass defense”
Our current safeties are “What safeties?”
Although I do hold out hope for Mistral Raymond becoming an alright player in the future.
You and me both.
I’m just so tired of seeing absolutely abysmal coverage gaffes and wide open WRs.
by Jepp The Viking on Jan 12, 2012 10:31 AM CST up reply actions
I like Branch too
He is younger as well. But I went with Griffin because of his passes defended and picks. He is pretty good at putting up those numbers. I will agree that he is inconsistent. But branch hardly gets any. That is what worries me.
What???
It’s tough to trade a guy like Jared Allen, but I think when you can turn him into David DeCastro and a future 3rd, it’s something we almost have to do.
What are you talking about? That is not nearly enough for Allen. Why does everyone want to get rid of stars for unknown entities like DeCastro. It’s ridiculous. Everson Griffen is no Jared Allen so don’t suggest he can replace him!
I'm guessing you missed
The part where it’s what is best for the future of the team. Sure trading Allen would hurt the team next year, however if you buy into the rebuild for the future it makes sense to trade the stars while you get the most you can for them and stockpile picks to build for the future.
Lets face it the Vikings unfortunately probably aren’t going to compete with the Lions and Packers for the next few years given the fact that both of those teams are young and very talented. If we use the resources we have on this team (aging stars) and get the most value we can out of them (by trading them while they have the most value) the rebuilding process will go that much quicker and the team will be younger and have a few years to gel in order to get back on top in a couple/ three years.
Can Griffen replace Allens output next year probably no, but given the age of the 2 players they could be very close in output in a couple of years when we might actually be ready to make a push for the playoffs. The players we could get by trading Allen in the next couple of drafts along with the FAs we MIGHT be able to sign with the money we save from Allens contract would improve this team in the long haul.
by VikesFanInTulsa on Jan 13, 2012 9:05 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Totally agree...
And when you say the FA’s we MIGHT be able to sign, the fact of the matter is that we’ll use that money to sign SOMEONE…
So even if it’s not our #1 target, we WILL be using that money on other players that will help out this team more in the long haul.
Yeah I know
I just put the MIGHT in there to please the people that would say “if we traded Allen nobody would want to sign with us”
by VikesFanInTulsa on Jan 13, 2012 10:15 AM CST up reply actions
Haha, I know.
They don’t understand that MONEY is what signs players in the NFL, and Zygi is willing to give it to them. This isn’t the NBA where they try to make superteams….
ever heard of...
..a salary cap. You overpay to get a few stars here(comparable money and most will probably go to a winning team with a nicer climate)and there’s no money left. The key to most successful franchise’s is they don’t overpay for FA’s.
I think your mistaking DE for RB
A DE of Allen’s physicality and with his work ethic, he’ll play at a high level for several more seasons.
Interesting
So you’d still cut Winfield even knowing his base salary dropped from that clause in his contract triggering. I can see your reasoning, I don’t necessarily like it. I’ve made my stance on trading Allen pretty clear so I don’t need to go over it again.
Other than that, I like this, especially the DB signings. With the season we had and our opponents in our division, i’d rather have some proven guys looking for money or a change of scenery back there than untested rookies and slowly add depth behind them through drafts. I’d probably go Tyvon Brance over Griffin but you can’t go wrong either way, really.
Maybe not since I did not sign too many free agents
I think they can keep Winfield and then maybe trade some of those late picks to get an extra fifth.
Need more veteran presence
I know you have a bias towards younger players, but when I look at the OL, I think…where’s the veteran presence? And when I look across the whole team, I think…where’s the veteran leadership?
Keeping guys like Jared Allen and Kevin Williams gives you that veteran presence and leadership on defense. Greenway is arguably a veteran now as well. I wouldn’t trade any of those guys. On offense, this plan leaves us with virtually no veterans, outside of maybe Michael Jenkins and Sage Rosenfels. I’d resign Shiancoe just to have more of a veteran presence on offense.
I understand the idea of having younger guys, as they tend to have better stamina, strength and longevity on the team. But, IMO you need to have a healthy mix of young talent, and veteran talent/leadership for a team to do well. You can’t trade/cut everyone over 30, just because they’re over 30.
Ponder. Peterson. Percy. Purple Perfection.
The vetran leadership produced a 6-10 season followed by a 3-13 season
How long do you want to hang onto players? Until they literally fall apart. Hutchinson is a HOFer IMO but he has gotten hurt at the end of the last two years and is just not the same. Certainly he is not worth the 7 mil he is set to make.
Shiancoe is going to be a free agent. They have not resigned him yet. That tells me they are not planning on it. I mean why would they wait until the clock strikes midnight? It does not show the player they really want him that is for sure.
The simple fact is that the older players are declining besides Allen, KWill, & Winfield. They are getting paid top dollar too. The depth was not being attained and then developed under Childress.
It all depends on if the players will want to play in a 3-4 defense. I am not advocating trading Allen or KWill either but if they said they are not interested then so be it.
Right, if we switch to a 3-4
Then I agree, we probably have to trade Jared Allen AND Kevin Williams. And then we’re left with Chad Greenway, basically, as the only veteran left on the team. I’m not saying keep guys until they fall apart, or keep them only for their veteran presence. But, when you look at a team like Tampa Bay, who is one of the younger teams in the league, I think they miss having a bit more veteran leadership on the team.
While, having a team that is all 25 or younger looks good on paper, that inexperience can come back to bite a team in a hurry. That’s all I’m saying.
Ponder. Peterson. Percy. Purple Perfection.
There is a FA out there
Named London Fletcher… We could get him for relatively cheap on a 2 year deal- maybe 10-12 million.
He would provide good leadership, cover skills, and another MLB to pair along with Brinkley.
He's still alive?
He’s ancient. Also, hasn’t he exclusively played MLB in 4-3 systems (not sure)?
This past year
He was an ILB in a 3-4 in Washington…
He’s like 36 or 37, but a good stop-gap player with leadership qualities
I'm looking for the LBs for the switch and I just dont see them
You basically took the one strength of the defense (the dline), dismantled it, moved around some of the backups from said line (Guion and Ballard), and exposed one of the weaker areas (LB) by putting guys in unfamiliar positions (Robison, Greenway, Griffen). And any plan that keeps Ayodele on the team needs to be scrapped. The dude can’t even play 1 gap in a 4-3 defense. No way in hell could he control 2 gaps in a 3-4.
I think a quicker and more realistic solution is sticking with the 4-3, addressing the secondary in the draft and FA, adding a linebacker and a DT, and hiring Mel Tucker or Spags to coordinate the defense.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
I still like Greenway a lot...
and I think Griffen, Robison and Brinkley could all be ideal LB’s in a 3-4 scheme. I think it makes the problem less glaring really.
I like Greenway too
But there are several unknows in this scenario. We do know that the 4-3 has worked when they had a solid run stuffing NT (Pat Williams), sure tackling LBs (Greenway and Leber), and a healthy secondary (Winfield, Griff, Sharper). A big problem, other than injuries, was that Pagac was over his head. He was straight up out coached several times this season.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
So none of the linebackers can play in a 3-4 then right?
Greenway would not be able to play inside or outside? He was one of the best pass rushing linebackers the last 3 years (from 2008-2010) according to profootballfocus. He did not rush the passer that much but when he did blitz he was effective apparently.
Brinkley is another guy who is better suited for a 3-4 defense as an ILB. They may want to get him on the field.
I actually would put Griffen as an inside LB in a 3-4 defense.
I think that Robison and Allen can play 3-4 OLB. If DeMarcus Ware can do it then Jared Allen can do it.
Ballard played end and tackle at Iowa and has the size to play over a tackle. Guion has the size too. They would rotate though.
I want to get Soliai as the starter and keep Ayodele as the backup with Chapman. I think one of the reasons Dunbar was let go was because Ayodele was not getting any snaps for some reason. Now you might say because he is lousy and the stats say that was true this year. But he did very well in New Orleans only to come here and drop off the map. Something was going on there. I do not know what but I do not see him losing his ability overnight. I think Spielman will make sure he plays.
yep...
I really don’t think people give Robison enough credit for his athleticism. That guy is an ELITE athlete; one of the very best athletes in his entire draft. I have no doubt he could play an effective LB in a 3-4 defense.
I'm glad you have no doubt
That a guy who has never played a position can change. But you know that reads and instincts matter a ton too, right? It’s not just athleticism.
sure...
and i think he has those. obviously it’s “no doubt” in my opinion. didn’t think i needed to add that. this is an opinion board.
How can you have an opinion
About whether a guy has the instincts or knows the reads to play a position he’s never really played before?
What I’m saying if you have any sense of the limitations of your own knowledge, you should have at least a little doubt.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Robison
Robison red-shirted in 2002 and in 2003, Robison played all 13 games at Middle Linebacker, starting in three of those games and registered 38 tackles, 22 solo, one sack, and four stops for losses. In addition, Brian had 14 quarterback rushes and caused on fumble. Brian also had one deflected pass, and tied a school record with four blocked kicks.
then there is this from the 2007 combine …
Talk about a workout warrior, Brian Robinson from Texas came to the combine in great shape. Only 6’ 3" 259 pounds, but he has huge thighs and is very explosive. He will probably be converted to outside linebacker in the NFL, but he put up some great numbers at the 2007 NFL Scouting Combine. He ran a 4.67 forty yard dash, 6.89 second 3-cone drill, 4.26 second 20 yard shuttle time and an amazing 40.50 inch vertical jump.
… there was a reason why Kansas City wanted Robison included in the Allen trade back in 2008.
There are many DEs that come into the league that teams put in the 3-4 OLB/DE position. Robison would probably be used similar to how Ryan Kerrigan is used in Washington now. He does drop into coverage from time to time here already when they try fancy blitz packages.
Will he be good at it? Who knows? But he certainly has the athletic ability.
Robison could handle a shift to pass-rushing OLB in a 3-4.
It’s pretty obvious. I think anyone that remembers him in college or his performance at the combine would agree. He’s played LB before, and now he’s a pass-rusher. Great! He should be able to play pass-rushing OLB, right? Ha it’s kinda a no-brainer.
The main reason he wasn’t as stout against the run was because he’s playing at 255-265 pounds instead of the avg. DE who’s up around 280. Tackles have 80-100 pounds on him.
He would easily be able to transfer to the 3-4, he’s one of our players who would benefit most from this switch. Brian Robison would probably have 10-12 sacks (AT LEAST) if he were in a 3-4. The reason he slowed down this year is because they minimized his quickness by overpowering him. If he can get out on the edge and use his quickness, he will be very good.
I am in favor of trading Jared Allen for the sole reason that we can help our team immensely by doing it, and Everson Griffin and Brian Robison could both be 10-14 sack guys their first year in a 3-4 (we had good talent and good depth behind him at DE(4-3)/OLB…
if you've traded Jared Allen
You’re down to two rush ends, with two starting spots (and no NT), and you’ve gotten Griffen on the field. Why switch to 3-4? Just for Brinkley?
no, you're not...
KW/Guion/Ballard all are rush ends. Griffen, Robison and Allen can still line up as rush ends occasionnally as well. And you’d have Griffen/Robison/Allen/Greenway/Brinkley/Erin as LB’s. I’d draft or sign a new DT and add 1 more 3-4 LB via the draft. You haven’t created any more holes than the defense already has; if anything you’ve filled 1 or 2 from within with a scheme switch.
No, no, no
KW, Guion and Ballard are all rush tackles (i.e., not nose tackles). They aren’t edge pressure guys, as evidence that none of them ever play on the edge or have that kind of speed.
Those guys are DTs, which is why they might work in a 3-4 at end, because a 3-4 end is really a tackle (he’s not responsible for edge pressure).
And one of Griffen, Robison and Allen would have to play the an OLB who isn’t primarily a rusher. The third would be on the bench.
I'm in favor of trading Jared Allen even if we don't switch.
I love the guy, but for the longevity of the team and future success, I would rather have 2 early picks than an aging Jared Allen.
And I’m a big fan. I’ll be a fan of his until he retires. It’s not good to keep him around only to lose him in FA because we still suck after his contract is up. His value is at an all-time high. He’s not guaranteed to stick around when this contract ends, and with that 12 mil coming off the books, we could sign Vincent Jackson (easily).
So now, we’re looking at:
Option #1:
1st round pick
2nd round pick
Top-flight WR (Jackson)
OR
Option #2
Jared Allen
I’ll take option #1
agreed...
though I’d spend the money on something other than VJax.
I would too...
It sounds like we won’t sign a Guard, or else I would have said Carl Nicks.
I would rather spend that 12 million on Cortland Finnegan AND Pierre Garcon…
1st round pick, 2nd round pick, Cortland Finnegan AND Pierre Garcon
OR
Jared Allen
Is that even a question?
what fantasy land do you reside in?
I don’t see your Math on how you acquire all four of those for 12 million/year.
Having seen just about every game in that time span
I have to trust my eyes over that study on profootballfocus. The majority of the time that I saw Greenway blitz, he got picked up by an offensive lineman. I am not even sure what qualifies as a “qb pressure” in their eyes. Greenway and Leber may have pressured QB’s at a high rate according to their system, but what did that accomplish? The Vikings have struggled in generating INTs for several years. The most they had in that time span was 15. The other 2 seasons they had 12 and 11. This season they had 8, tied for worst in the league. Pass yards per game went down in 2010, but that was largely due to the fact that the Vikings were playing from behind so teams were running the ball more in the second half. Ideally those “qb pressures” would have lead to more INTs, less pass yards surrendered, and a lower pass completion %. It is well documented that the Vikings set records this year for opposing QB passer rating and completion %. This year pass yards per game went way up.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
I question just about everything I hear from ProFootballFocus these days.
Some of their stuff just defies explanation.
"Man invented language to satisfy his deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
Well.. something to point out..
even in that article, they suggest that the Viking’s LBs blitz so effectively because of the D-line that we have. So when you take that apart, it sort of.. offsets.
by REVENGE4KLUWE on Jan 12, 2012 12:52 PM CST up reply actions
Nice post
I still don’t agree with trading Allen, because his intangibles are too important. He’s an onfield leader of the team and I think our defense is sorely lacking in those, even if we only have him for maybe 5 years optimistically.
The only other thing I see is that we need a huge upgrade across from Harvin on WR. Gotta go with the tall guy over a backup shorter guy, since in today’s game we have to have the guys who can go to the sky.
by liveforadrenaline on Jan 11, 2012 9:57 PM CST reply actions
I do not know about any intangibles
I really do not even know what they are. I thought I lost some the other day but I found them under my car seat.
Seriously though, this is a hypothetical switch to a 3-4 plan that involves these players not wanting to play in that defense. Kind of like Haynesworth but without the “intangibles”.
Well if you are giving up allen for only a 1st and 3rd next year, you might as well just release him (ok a little overexaggeration)
He is still on the right side of 30, averages 12-13 sacks a year. Do nto settle for less than 1st and 2nd, this year. if the second pick is for 2013, it needs to be a 1st, as future draft picks are not worth near what current DPs are.
I'm kind of on this boat
The best 4-3 DE in the league in his prime who could realistically challenge the single season sack record every year should command an enormous bounty. Anything short of that no way.
by Jepp The Viking on Jan 12, 2012 10:19 AM CST up reply actions
I am not in favor of trading him unless he insists
His public comments about the 3-4 pretty much says that though.
As far as his value. I would gladly take a #12 overall pick and a third the next year. The Vikings gave up the #17 and two thirds to get him 4 years ago and got excellent production from him too. They would be getting an excellent return on investment.
I doubt any team is giving up a first and a second for a 30 year old (to be) Pro Bowl DE. I just do not see it but I would gladly take it. Considering Allen would want out that decreases the Vikings leverage too.
Heck, I would take that #12 pick and be very happy especially since I would free up that cap money.
To spend on the below average players
Good players want to go to where good players are. Record is not so much important as the talen surrounding them. Look at the Miami Heat for example. If FA see that they are dumping off the only talent they have, it just makes them that much worse if they sign here by having to try to overcompensate for other weak positions
Love it Mark, obviously...
as it was pretty damn similar to mine :) good stuff though. certainly radical to trade KW and Allen for that, but maybe so. Love everything else though. Griffin and Reggie Nelson were two other guys I’d target in the secondary as well.
We should be focusing this FA on young guys in their primes coming off of rookie contracts; those are the best values for where this team is heading.
My bet is we would trade Allen and Kwill
and then we would GET ABSOLUTELY NO FAs, to come here. Why would they want to come here after you just dropped your two best players and are coming off a 3-13 season. No DEF player would ever come here if the FO pulled that grabage. Hey guy play your best, be great, then we will just dump you off.
Money has a funny way of convincing players
and no players last forever. Obviously these two have some quality years left. But it was reported that neither are interested in the 3-4 defense. If the team moves in that direction what should the team do?
It worked for the Twins until they got Bill Smith...
In all seriousness, I am not in favor of trading Winfield. I am indifferent in trading Kevin Williams (he’d only get a 2nd (TOPS)). But I am in favor of getting what we can for Jared Allen. We have depth at his position.
We could pick up a 1st and 2nd right now for Jared Allen, would you agree?
If that ends up being picks around 21 and 53, we could end up with 3, 21, 35, 53
We could end up with:
Matt Kalil LT
Mark Barron S
Dwight Jones WR
Markelle Martin S (or a CB, but we’d either have to have one fall or reach badly. I’d be open to getting 2 new safeties)
OR
Matt Kalil
Dwight Jones
Jared Allen
???
If we didn’t have depth at DE, or if we didn’t have many other needs, I think it would be just fine to stick with Jared Allen… But we DO have depth at DE. And we DO have other needs. MANY OF THEM.
Also, we’ll have lots of money. I don’t think you understand good players will go to bad teams if they offer just a mil or two more over 5 years….
It's all about the defensive coordinator...
a lot of Houston’s players were “against” the switch to the 3-4. Now they’re thriving in it. It’s all about having a good enough defensive coordinator to convince the best players that they can excel in what he’s doing. Allen and KW certainly can excel in a 3-4; no question. It’s just a matter of being convinced by a good 3-4 coordinator.
Who is?
This magic DC who’s going to convince our two best defensive players to play out of position so we can get our back up middle linebacker on the field?
a good DC...
is going to convince them that they can be every bit as effective in the 3-4 scheme, that he’ll still utilize all their strengths, and that it will make the defense better as a whole both now and in the longterm.
which it would. IMO. this is exactly what phillips did in houston.
The question was
Who is this person that the Vikings are going to hire?
He better be pretty darn good if he’s going to talk Williams into having to play two gaps and place less emphasis on rushing. And to convince Allen to play standing up.
And that case probably needs to rest on more than “we don’t really have a MLB who can cover right now” and “this rookie DE might be able to play more if we make him a LB.”
by amiller92 on Jan 12, 2012 11:01 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
That is a good question and throws a huge monkey wrench into this whole idea
Allen can be used like Ware he lines up often with his hand on the ground to rush the passer in passing situations.
KWill would play over the tackle.
Griffen is a special athlete. They are using him as a gunner on special teams. He used to drop in coverage often at USC from the DE spot. As a USC fan I seen this often. I actually believe that Greenway and Griffen would be pretty good ILBs in a 3-4.
Why not just start Griffen over Robison and get a MLB that can cover?
Adding one player that fits our scheme rather than projecting that 3-4 players will transition flawlessly to a new scheme seems much simpler for improving our front 7.
I’ve also seen a lot of talk about how well the 3-4 worked for Houston. They went from the 13th ranked team against the rush to the 4th ranked team(a little over 10 yds/game improvement). The big difference is that they went from the 32nd ranked pass defense to the 3rd ranked pass defense(almost 80 yds/game improvement). The 3-4 and a good coordinator in Wade Phillips definitely contributed to this but the main reason is that they added two quality FA starters in Jonathan Joseph and Daniel Manning and the other starters in the secondary were very young players that improved this year.
Fixing the personnel and getting a good coordinator is more important than changing the scheme IMO.
by CanadianViking on Jan 12, 2012 11:33 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
it's both...
the 3-4’s a better scheme longterm in the NFL right now. IMO.
I would agreee with CV
It is the quality of players. If it was the Scheme all teams would be using the 3-4. but they do not. No one was complaining when we had the #1 and #2 ranked defenses in tthe previouse few years. the only change is our DBs have gone from outstadning with Sharper/Winfield in his prime to Ok to horrendous.
I can handle that argument. The 3-4 has been shown to be marginally more effective over the last ten years but I believe there's less of a difference between the two now that close to half of the league is running a 3-4. It's a cyclical thing IMO.
My problem is that I disagree with you that our personnel is more suited for the 3-4. I’ve read your arguments but I just don’t see it. I think the players we have could play in a 3-4, but I only see it benefitting Robison and possibly Griffen, while I think Kevin Williams would be less effective and it’s a big gamble betting that Allen’s production would remain the same. There’s also a good chance that Allen, Griffen, and Robison would only be able to play the rush-linebacker position due to inexperience playing in space and having coverage responsibilities. That would cause even more roster imbalance than there presently exists.
by CanadianViking on Jan 12, 2012 12:02 PM CST up reply actions
How do you explain DeMarcus Ware then?
How often does he drop into coverage? He managed 19.5 sacks last year.
I think it is all about fear for many fans and sentiment.
I think the Vikings would be doing themselves a favor by looking into the 3-4. They can switch in and out of the 3-4 to a 4-3 anytime they want. Anything to keep the offenses guessing is good IMO.
well that is true
then wouldnt it be easier for them to just run a 4-3 with an occasional 3-4, dropping allen back to an OLB?
Yes but not dropping Allen too much
He is best at rushing the passer. I really do not think it is that big of a deal to be honest. I think that anything they do is going to be good.
Right now, I am going off of what Spielman said and that is “everything is on the table”.
I like that approach especially with the way this team has played the last two years.
I agree.
I just htink taking a player away during his prime (which this clearly is) is a waste. yes we may get some return but it will not Equal probowl talent next year.
I only said it's a gamble that Allen will remain as productive in a 3-4 as in a 4-3.
I think he’d still be a good player in the 3-4 as the primary rusher but there’s no guarantee that he’d be great. Mario Williams seemed to be making the transition fairly well this year but players like Aaron Kampman fell off the map when they switched. It’s a gamble because it’s unknown how well Allen would handle the switch. In my opinion I’d rather let him stay great at what he does best and not screw around with him. Probably a moot point since he said that he won’t make the switch anyway.
There’s no fear of change from me. I just think the way you and DJSkillz have projected our players improving while changing positions is overly optimistic and unrealistic. I like the 3-4 better than the 4-3 but I see a lot of square pegs being projected into round holes in your scenarios. Some of our players would fit in either scheme but I think Allen and KWill would be more productive in the 4-3. I’m more concerned about their success considering they’re our best players rather than getting more out of Robison and Griffen. I’d start Griffen and look for a coverage MLB that actually fits the Tampa-2(EJ at his best wasn’t the right type of MLB for this defense) to improve the front seven without moving multiple players to new positions that they may or may not play well in.
by CanadianViking on Jan 12, 2012 1:01 PM CST up reply actions
well, to be clear, again...
i think we need a few new players with a switch; a new DT, at least one new LB, and obviously secondary players. But we need those anyway so that doesn’t really change anything to me. It’s also about the future to me. I actually don’t care too much what this team does for the next 2-3 years; we’re not going to win a SB in that time. It’s about what we do 3-4 years from now that matters. KW and Allen are both great, great players, but they won’t be in 3-4 years, so I think basing a scheme one those guys is not exactly our best move. We should basing a scheme on future success.
Fair enough.
I’m not opposed to a switch, I just think you go with what makes the most sense in regards to your current personnel. I’d look at a switch in 1-2 years time when Allen and Williams are nearing the end and hopefully by then the team will have better LB depth to make a switch less painful. Unless the Vikings trade both Allen and Williams right now the switch would be counterproductive and just change for change’s sake in my opinion.
by CanadianViking on Jan 12, 2012 1:14 PM CST up reply actions
i hear ya...
i just personally feel that worst case we’re no worse than we are right now. this is a bad defense right now. and i personally believe JA and KW can be every bit as effective; you can still play an awful lot of 4-3 with the switch; that’s the beauty of it. so to me, we’re no worse worst case, we’re probably better in the near term (IMO) because you get guys like griffen/brinkley on the field more and in better roles, and we’re almost definitely better in the longterm (3-4 years from now). that’s why i advocate a switch now.
I'd start Griffen at LE at let Brinkley compete at OLB like he was doing pre-injury this year to get them on the field more.
Really, our biggest problem is the secondary and that needs to be overhauled first in my opinion. I’d rather focus on acquiring 2-3 upgrades in the secondary and 1-2 upgrades at LB this year than try to overhaul the secondary and switch schemes in one offseason.
Fix the secondary and add LB depth this year and I’d be on board for the 3-4 switch the following year. I think trying to fix the secondary, adding quality LBs, and switching schemes in one offseason is just too big of a laundry list to fill and could cause more problems than it fixes. Change is good but change at potentially all 11 positions is too ambitious for me : )
by CanadianViking on Jan 12, 2012 1:31 PM CST up reply actions
i don't know about that...
again, look at houston. they changed schemes and added 6-7 new defensive players in one offseason and went from worst to 1st.
also, changing now helps you in FA and the draft. there are more guys available that fit a 3-4 scheme so not only do you increase your chances of helping yourself, but you also are signing/drafting guys that fit your new scheme. not signing/drafting guys that won’t fit in 1-2 years when you do switch.
Houston added 3 new players and switched 2 other players positions.
They added Watt, Manning, and Joseph. They switched Barwin and Williams and maybe added another LB(can’t recall). In a previous comment I noted that there rush defense improved a little but the main difference in their overall defense was the huge jump their secondary made(32nd to 3rd). Manning and Joseph played at/near pro-bowl level and the other two starters improved in their 2nd and 3rd years of playing.
I think we need 3-4 new starters in the secondary and at least 1-2 new linebackers to run our current scheme. Switching to the 3-4 in my opinion would require the same personnel additions plus 3-5 players learning new positions. It’s not impossible but that’s a lot change in one offseason and much more than Houston attempted.
Plus our front four is good at the moment. Why not fix our secondary and improve our LBs before we screw around with the one area of the defense that isn’t a clusterf**k. I think the 3-4 is slightly better than the 4-3 but I don’t think it’s so superior that the Vikings should junk their only strong suit on D while there are more pressing needs to address first.
As for the availability of 3-4 guys in the draft, that’s debatable. True 3-4 NTs are rare and teams are reaching for them more and more in the draft, Rushing LBs are easier to find than traditional DEs but we’re stocked at DE anyway, 4-3 OLBs are actually easier to find now later in the draft because they don’t have the size for the 3-4. Basically now that the NFL is getting close to being split evenly between 4-3 and 3-4 teams the draft advantage is negligible now.
I still maintain you run whatever scheme best fits your personnel at the current time. Hell, even Belichek is switching back to a 4-3 because of personnel and he usually seems to be ahead of the NFL curve : )
by CanadianViking on Jan 12, 2012 2:10 PM CST up reply actions
Oops, Houston also moved Cushing to ILB as well.
by CanadianViking on Jan 12, 2012 2:11 PM CST up reply actions
and they drafted Brooks Reed
Who’s been pretty good for them.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
Good catch, forgot about him.
So the total count for changes the Texans made to implement the 3-4 amounts to them using their 1st and 2nd round draft picks in 2011, signing two quality free agents, and two players switching positions. 4 new players and 2 position changes adds up to over 50% of their starting defense being changed.
by CanadianViking on Jan 15, 2012 6:06 PM CST up reply actions
And a Wade Phillips in a Pear Tree
Which at this point is proving rather difficult for the Vikings to do. Hire a DC that is.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
It's a bad defense
But a good front seven.
You’re right that to be a great defense we need an upgrade at the interior tackle and MLB. But we can be a good defense with upgrades to our secondary and the same, good front seven.
Isnt that the definition of a Vikings fan
Overly optimistic and unrealistic
by MarkSP18 on Jan 12, 2012 1:07 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
i think more likely...
“beaten down”
“depressed”
:)
Ha, pretty much: )
You could also add masochistic, stubborn, and frustrated to the list.
by CanadianViking on Jan 12, 2012 1:15 PM CST up reply actions
Not to mention a Vikings fan is someone who apparently
Constantly must spew forth the words, “be patient” and “give them a chance” in order to give a pass to our 2nd and 3rd-rate coaching over the last 30 years…
by liveforadrenaline on Jan 12, 2012 2:40 PM CST up reply actions
He's one guy
We have three guys we want to keep, who are among our best players, and who only project well into one 3-4 position (rush linebacker).
Maybe one of them could play the other OLB, but that’s a big leap of faith to me.
I agree with you CV 100%
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
Regarding 3-4
There is only one thing to say: you are an idiot ;)
But see, a team long on rush ends and short on tackles and linebackers shoud switch to a defense with an extra linebacker, three tackles and no rush ends. The personnel practically forces them to!
Well, you know, except for not having the personnel at all.
that's where we completely disagree...
i think our personnel matches the 3-4 much more than it does the 4-3 actually, and it would fill holes, not create more of them.
this defense has lots of holes regardless.
I don't know...
maybe the potential matches the 3-4 better, but a lot of suggest players don’t have experience in the system. I think that some positional upgrades need to be made and the players need to be given a more substantial background to a new defense if they were to make the switch. I do see what you mean, though. Mel Tucker is being interviewed because of his capability in blending in a 3-4 with a 4-3; it would provide a lot of scheme flexibility for the defense, which is really what we need. According to SI, the Vikings spent 94% of their snaps in the 4-3 or in nickel. That’s ridiculous, and needs to be changed no matter what way you look at it.
"Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear, not absence of fear." -Mark Twain
absolutely...
and i think that’s my larger point. it’s not like switching to the 3-4 needs to be an “all the time” thing. most 3-4 defenses offer you a lot of flexibility; we’d still be playing the 4-3 quite a bit, especially with our pass rushers. i think a lot of people don’t grasp that.
In 2010 Houston ran a 4-3 defense
They switched it to a 3-4 defense in 2011.
They moved Brian Cushing inside to play next to DeMeco Ryans. They had drafted Connor Barwin the year before and then let him play a rush LB. They moved Mario Williams to rush LB. They had Shaun Cody and Antonio Smith and Earl Mitchell as DTs from the year before. They drafted JJ Watt. They drafted Brook Reed. I think they signed a couple of free agents.
It is not some mysterious switch for these players. Sometimes the DTs line up on the outside shoulder of the guards in our own defense. So now that they line up a little bit over directly in front of the tackle is going to make a huge difference? And our linebackers line up in different spots sometimes too.
The simple fact is if they stay in a 4-3 defense then Everson Griffen will spend his 3rd year on the bench for the majority of the time. Jasper Brinkley will probably be on the bench for his 4th year. Ballard may spend his time on the bench a lot rotating with whomever is across from KWill.
I think that there are valid reasons to make a switch. Current personnel having the potential, draft eligible players being better fits in a 3-4 (we really cannot have any chance at a Dont’a Hightower or Courtney Upshaw in a 4-3) at both the LB and DT spots, and the opportunity to make the defense less predictable.
All I know for sure is that keeping the status quo is not going to change the results. That is crazy.
my question is this statement ...
“he simple fact is if they stay in a 4-3 defense then Everson Griffen will spend his 3rd year on the bench for the majority of the time. Jasper Brinkley will probably be on the bench for his 4th year. Ballard may spend his time on the bench a lot rotating with whomever is across from KWill.”
But if they are NOT GOOD enough to be a starter now, what makes you think they are good enough to be full time starters in a 3-4. I like all those players, but they were nothing more than situational/role players all last year, they could not permanently crack the starting line-up. Now they are just magically good enough to ALL be full time starters? The did not see 100% of the snaps last year for a reason, what was it?
scheme...
those LB’s are asked to do different things in a 3-4, and the skills it requires fits both Brinkley and Griffen much better than the 4-3 AND doesn’t hinder Allen/KW/Greenway/Robison/Guion/Ballard.
A switch fills holes, not creates them.
Brinkley, not Griffen
Griffen fits best as a rush end in a 4-3.
Please explain why
You think Griffen fits best in a position he’s never played before in a scheme he’s never played before.
his athleticism is built for that essentially tweener position...
he’s not really a traditional DE in a 4-3 IMO, and he’s not really a LB in a traditional 4-3. He’s a tweener (in a good way) that fits well shifting between roles in the 3-4. I think Robison is much the same way.
Why is he not really a DE in the 4-3
Which is what he’s played throughout his career?
I do not think 6'3 270 makes him a Tweener for LB/DE
If anyhting it makes him a possible DT candidate. But really his your prototypical dream DE size.
How do you know it fits them better?
did they both play 3-4 in college? I honestly have no clue what they did.
i don't "know"...
it’s an opinion. just like it’s your opinion they won’t.
Well, if I am correct and they have not yet played in a 3-4 scheme ever. It would be fact not opinion.
how so?
just because they haven’t done something doesn’t mean it doesn’t fit their skills better. that doesn’t make any sense.
well you can not say it does fit their skill set better if they have yet to do it
they have shown their skill set in a 4-3. once they are in a 3-4 you can compare. until then we really cant just assume that they will be fine. They may very well be, but it is yet TBD
not true...
of course it’s TBD, but it’s an opinion. I can look at a job that you or I do, look at our skills, and say “this role would be perfect for you” without you ever excelling at it. doesn’t guarantee that you or i will of course, but the underlying skills can be seen despite any experience.
and at the end of the day, that’s what the scouts are paid to do. if our personnel dept thinks our players are ill-suited to a 3-4, then so be it. but i don’t think that’s the case and i think that’s why there’s been so much chatter about a switch from those in the know.
But there hasnt been any from those in the "know"
The head coach cam out and said against it. the players came out against it. The only people talking for it out people here. If they higher a 3-4 DC then maybe they will talk about it, but I can not see them getting a 4-3 DC and switchin to a 3-4. I think they have really only interviewd 4-3 DCs
not true...
i’d say guys like zulgad and pelissero are “in the know”.
Frazier has not come out against it at all; all he said was that “he’d be cautious”.
a couple of players said they were against it, but that’s no shocker. players never want to change.
You may have finally identified the real difference of opinion
I think those guys, like each and every sports writer, are useful sources of information but terrible sources of opinion.
When it comes to opinions like what scheme to run or where talent fits, they are no more qualified than your average reasonably informed fan to give their own opinion.
those guys are close to the action...
i’m not saying it’s going to happen or it isn’t, but i think there is certainly a debate on the switch within the Vikings’ front office. too much smoke from those close to the team for there not to be fire.
What I don't know
Is if there is debate among the Vikings staff or just among the press corps.
Honestly, I suspect the latter.
Why do you think...
It’s taking so long to get a D-Coordinator?
The team was trying to find ways to get Griffen on the field
Brinkley was injured or he may have seen some snaps in EJ’s multiple absences. They had to go out and sign Adibi because Brinkley was hurt.
I do not think they will switch but this is about if they did. Griffen needs to play and the team is showing that by using him all over the place wherever they can.
There is no shame in being he backup to Jared Allen. Not many players would start over him. But if Allen agreed to play in the 3-4 defense then maybe the Vikings could put Griffen inside as a 3-4 LB. I like that a lot. Kind of like Levon Kirkland from Pittsburgh in size but more speed.
Wrong year
The defense had a bad year, and the big solution is to dismantle the 4-3 and convert to a 3-4?? The Vikings have too many other needs to address, to be thinking of swapping defensive strategies. Draft a left tackle, some secondary help, and a receiver. This plan makes a lot of assumptions of who the Vikings will be a able to sign in free agency. If these guys are worth anything, there’s going to be 31 other teams chasing after them. I also agree with CC Norse that the Vikings need the leadership that Jared Allen and Kevin Williams provide. I disagree with cutting that many players. If you want to bring some players in, thats fine, but keep some guys for competition. How many times has a team brought in free agents, only to see them come in and play mediocre.
I got a hunch that Vincent Jackson will be wearing purple next year. Spielman really wanted him last year. Does anyone realize how many players Spielman brought over from Miami?? Greg Camarillo was a Miami free agent in 2007. In 2007 Spielman and Miami drafted Lorenzo Booker in the third round. In 2006 Miami had three seventh rounders. Two of those were Fred Evans and Devin Aromashodu.
by vking1 on Jan 12, 2012 12:00 AM CST via mobile reply actions 3 recs
Assumptions and hope is all we can do
You are making an assumption that the Vikings will go after VJack and get him just because they tried to trade for him last year. One of the problems with the trade was that VJack wanted the Vikings to guarantee they would not franchise tag him. The Vikings had no guarantee that VJack would sign an extension and were not going to give up that many picks for nothing. They eventually did but who knew about Moss.
I did list a top safety, cornerback, and defensive tackle. The others are not at the top of the list of free agents. These players have to go somewhere. The Vikings need to target their first guy and then make sure they sign him. They will probably overpay a little but that is OK. Once they do that then other players will see that the Vikings are paying and are adding some decent pieces. At least that is what I think the mindset may be.
It is interesting that you say I am assuming and then you think we can sign VJack. Why would he come here. Carolina may offer him some money too. Maybe Miami?
Speaking of Miami, those players that Spielman brought over should all be gone from the team next year as none of them contributed much.
I mentioned one player, you listed several.
by vking1 on Jan 12, 2012 9:20 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Yes. I listed 6 free agents
I hope the Vikings can add close to that many. I am hoping for a few top free agents. You are hoping for one of the best WR free agents. I like him a lot too. I would love for them to get VJack.
The Vikings signed Jenkins, Aromashodu, Johnson, Kooistra, Berger, and Adibi this past year.
I think they will sign some this upcoming year too. I hope they can sign just a few top free agents.
All I can do is hope.
interesting
of course, by this, we can conclude that Spielman is trying to replicate an 1-15 team, perhaps he should be fired.
Overall, this is silly
In Madden or fantasy you can trade or cut everyone and draft a whole new team, but not in reality. You’ve laid out 15 draft picks. Has any team ever had 15 picks? I highly doubt it.
I know this is supposed to be fun, but I don’t see the enjoyment in spending so much time thinking up complex strings of things that can’t possible happen.
Madden
DN is where mark gets his trade itch scratched, no Madden in his house …..
I would also prefer to keep some of the top tier veterens around (scheme willing).
I like this mock and most of the FA.
Very well though out.
I do prefer staying primarily in the 4-3 with a few 3-4 looks.
by Iceland-Viking on Jan 12, 2012 4:27 AM CST up reply actions
That is why you do not do these posts
It is really strange that a dude would comment about how another dude gets his “enjoyment”. I mean what is up with that? I am not going to care what you do to pass your time. Yet you feel compelled to let me know you think that this is a waste of time. Thanks. I will keep that in mind as I post something else for some fans to discuss.
There are 20 free impending agents on this team. In case you did not know, the Vikings have yet to sign any of them to new deals. Why is that? Is there any on the list you want to keep? Keep in mind the team’s record the last two years and the production and playing time of these free agents. Also, each year a player is in the league his salary goes up. The average career is anywhere from 3 to 5 years. Many of the free agents may never get better. Time to bring in some new players with potential that needs to be vetted out.
Here are Spielman’s own words …
http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Nothing_is_off_the_table_as_Vikings_rebuild_GM_Rick_Spielman_says010812
Do you view this as a total makeover, a total rebuilding job, or do you feel you can fix a couple holes and be competitive?
Well, I think there’s more than a few holes that we’ll have to look at, and that’ll be determined as we go through, because there are some very good young pieces in place. I know there are some young guys from this last year’s draft that we’re very excited about, but they’re going to have to step it up. What you see a lot of times is guys are going to come in from their rookie year into their second year and how much they improve. You’ve seen that a little bit in the Toby Gerharts of the world, and we’re expecting that from this last class going into next year, because a lot of those guys are going to have to play for us. And we’re going to have to do a great job when we have this draft class, because right now I’m anticipating we’ll have another 10 draft picks and maybe more by the time the draft is over. All those rookies coming in are going to have to contribute in some way, shape or form.
-————————————————————————————————————————————————-
So after reading what Spielman said and seeing the list of mostly backups that never are going to start ever free agents, how many new faces do you think the team is going to bring in? I am thinking 20 to 25 new faces. It is a rebuilding time. The best time to start it is now. In with the new and out with the old.
Lastly, if you checked my projected lineup, four of the draft picks would hopefully make it onto the practice squad. Maybe the Vikings will take some of the late picks and move up to get one extra fifth round pick. I thought of that too but did not add it in.
Thanks for the concern about how I get my enjoyment though. I did base it on words from Spielman’s mouth and the fact that the team has 20 impending free agents. It is not like I am saying cut most of the players.
If they do plan to switch to a 3-4 now would be the time
The sooner the change is made the sooner our players can develop in it, might take a season or two but it would be better than rebuilding the offense one year then switching the defense to a 3-4 after you already drafted/signed a bunch of new guys and had them play in the 4-3 for a year. Like Spielman says nothing is off the table, besides Adrian Peterson. I am excited to see what they will do, although I think our defense can be successful in either alignment. Just as you say, no matter how painful it might be, all we can do is wait.
"You can write articles and do whatever you want, you can break down every player. Good, bad or ugly. But we just aren't good enough as a team, as a group. Offensively, defensively and special teams, from the No. 1 on the roster to the last man on the roster. We just aren't good enough. It's as simple as that." - Chad Greenway
by Grape Drank on Jan 12, 2012 11:43 AM CST up reply actions
Intentions
I believe my intentions may have been misread.
I was trying to praise your efforts and point out to amiller that you don’t do the madden thing.
I think the fact that you don’t do a zillion trades in madden a week like some of us is a benifit to the DN community. You are able to scratch your GM itch here and share your mad genius results, onservations and insights with the community.
I do not find your posts a waste of time, or else I would not read them, be sometimes shocked by them and take the time to comment on/in them.
by Iceland-Viking on Jan 12, 2012 11:52 AM CST up reply actions
And some people might think...
…that making 2600 comments on the DN in less than a year is an unproductive use of one’s time. So what? We do with our time what we want when other obligations don’t intrude. Don’t be a hater. Mark’s done some great work here. He deserves a pat on the back rather than criticism for work like this.
"Man invented language to satisfy his deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
I agree...
It doesn’t matter if you agree or not, it’s obvious he’s put in a lot of time and it’s something he enjoys to do. I thank him for doing it, even though I don’t agree with everything he says. He puts stuff out there for us to discuss, and it certainly did a good job of that. Stuff like switching to a 3-4 and trading Jared Allen are very controversial topics. That’s why it’s fun to talk about them. I think this post is great entertainment, just as blogs on the internet are supposed to be. If you don’t like it, you can politely disagree instead of going off on the writer…
by mak07 on Jan 12, 2012 8:02 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The secondary is the problem not the front 7
We were in the top half of the league against the run, and led the league in sacks, the two most important things the Dl and lbs control the problems come from the backend. Cook is good if possible we should keep him, Winfield is a great nickle back. we need two new starting safeties, a starting cb and to replace Ayodele and possibly Ej, and our defence will show a huge improvement. (cut C Griffen, A Allen, Sapp, Abdullah and possibly Sanford.)
by mns51 on Jan 12, 2012 6:05 AM CST via mobile reply actions
he lost me at cutting winfield
yeah, he’s 34….but he’s still our best corner, and with the clause in his contract, his base salary drops significantly. move him to the nickel/slot position. keep his veteran presence as well as tackling ability.
if cook isn’t in jail, he’s definitely a starting CB in the league based on his 2011 play…. A Allen is servicable as a dime CB
look for some good safeties and another CB in FA or the draft, I think with a few years development Raymond will be a solid safety
the talk of switching to a 3-4 to me is asinine….dump tampa two for more cover 1/man schemes, and see what brinkley can do in the MLB position…
by michiganpat on Jan 12, 2012 12:20 PM CST up reply actions
hindsight....
just think if we had taken Nick Fairly instead of CP7 last year, instead of taking Remi in FA…. and just rode out the year with webb and mcnabb…doubt we’d be in any worse shape than we are now, and could look at RGIII in the draft if webb didn’t pan out, or Flynn in FA….
by michiganpat on Jan 12, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions
Just think if Webb did not win that Philly game in 2010
We could have made the trade down with Cleveland perhaps?
OR
Would we have taken Locker or worse Gabbert.
by VikesFanInTulsa on Jan 13, 2012 9:33 AM CST up reply actions
Flynn?
I’m sure GB would trade him to Minny for almost nothing. Yep. um….
He's due to be a FA
So unless GB plans on putting the franchise tag on him it wouldn’t matter what they would like to do with him.
by VikesFanInTulsa on Jan 17, 2012 12:00 PM CST up reply actions
That is a good post.
I agree and i hope Raymond pans out, i’m not as convinced of that as you are, yet.
Why are we still talking 3-4
A yutz reporter asked a dumb question about moving to the 3-4, the staff and front office pukes gave a glib answer and now we have a (very good) detailed roster analysis and draft to support going to a 3-4.
Look around the league at how many teams are moving from the 3-4 back to a 4-3 Press/Man (Press Zone) defense and tell me why we would be one of the only teams moving to a 3-4. Then mix in the reality that we are only looking at D-coords that are 4-3 guys, to run a defense that is primarily geared to run a 4-3 scheme.
Makes no sense.
Anyway, what I would do is fix one of the gaffs Singletary did last year. Move Chad back to the Will and then have Everson drop 5-15 lbs and move him to the Sam. Bring in the big DT you mentioned that will help fix our inability to collapse the pocket on passing downs and eat up blockers/stop the run on running plays.
Get Cook back on the field at LCB, move Cedric to the nickle (both his knees will be 100% this year) and hope that either Asher or a new rook can play the RCB and go after a FA S if you want to fix that way.
On the offensive side of the ball, draft Blackmon if he’s there or Kalil if he isn’t but make getting Vincent Jackson your number 1 FA target. Can you imagine what a WR corps of VJ (2 defenders), Blackmon (2 Defenders) and Percy (2 Defenders) would do to the pressure D-coords could bring against the OL? Of course you will have to convince Musgrove (I know his name is Musgrave) to quit running the bunched sets that allow D-coords to flood the box which makes our OL look like crap.
The problem with taking Blackmon over Kalil
Would be that teams could double VJ, Percy, and Blackmon. Single the RB and TE, rush 3 and still get to Ponder on a regular basis with the OL we currently have in place. If the Vikings took Blackmon over Kalil with all the FA WRs this year it would be a huge mistake IMO.
As for moving to the 3-4 I like most of the changes MarkSP18 has listed. Although I don’t like the trade of Cook and a future 5th rounder for the Rams 3rd rounder this year. If Cook can make it back he has way more talent than that trade equals out to.
by VikesFanInTulsa on Jan 12, 2012 7:09 AM CST up reply actions
Blackmon will be a bust IMO...
no way would I take him anywhere in the top 5. He won’t be a gamechanger IMO, and no WR that’s not a gamechanger should go in the top 10 really. Especially with this FA WR class.
I also would stay away from VJax unless he signs cheap (he won’t). He’s getting older (29) and he’s also 1 strike away from being suspended for a year. I’d much rather bring in a couple of young WR’s, like Laurent Robinson, Early Doucet, or Robert Meachem.
I agree 100%.
I’m out on Blackmon. I will be upset if we stand pat and get him at #3. If we trade down to 7 or 8 and the CB’s and LT’s are gone, I could probably live with it, but it would be a failed draft IMO
agreed...
i’m really in the boat of; i won’t be happy unless we come out of this 1st rd with one of kalil/martin/griffinIII.
i don’t really believe in reiff either and this is a deep CB draft.
I want Kalil or Martin...
If both are gone, I want Fitzpatrick or Reiff. I don’t want RG3, but that’s for another thread (which finally got bumped off the rec’d list). I would be OK with trading down to #7 if it looks like we can get Martin and Mark Barron, but if it looks like Martin will be gone, I think we need to make a play to get Kalil if at all possible. I think I would be OK with Morris Claiborne, but I’m undecided on that right now.
I like Claiborne...
it’s just such a deep CB draft, like I said. And I certainly wouldn’t take him any higher than around 8 or 9 I think. I really would be shocked if we don’t end up with either Kalil or Martin though.
Thanks.
I just did it to have a discussion. Do I think they will or know they will? No I do not.
I think there is merit to being able to run both defenses actually. Sometimes you go with 4 DL and sometimes you go with 4 LB. I have no problem with that at all especially if one of the LBs is basically rushing the passer the majority of the time.
I will change my approach in the next version. I just wanted to debate this one a little bit to see if the fans think there is some merit.
The bottom line is that there will be plenty of new faces next year no matter the defense.
A good plan
This is a great effort to game out a possible scenario for the Vikings. But, I think we have to look at this in two phases: free agency; and, the draft. Free agency begins on March 1. What if we sign a LT in free agency? That changes our draft needs. Same is true if we sign a WR. The deepest group of FA’s is probably LB, so we might get some good value there. If we land a quality DB, it Aldo changes our plan.
We really need a two tiered plan. Since we know the approximate cap position, we know the rookie pay scale, we have a pretty good idea of what to spend and how many FAs we will need. With the number of holes, we have multiple options and we should pursue a plan that maximizes our options.
While I think your overall plan is a great effort, I think we can move more slowly, keep more options open, and perhaps hang on to a few players like Winfield and/or Allen.
by Vikefandc on Jan 12, 2012 7:27 AM CST via mobile reply actions
This is rather unrealistic but an interesting point for discussion. I sincerely doubt that the Vikings will dump their three best defensive players (Allen, Williams, and Winfield) in the offseason.
The proposed transition to the 3-4 is essentially moving our best starters out of position in a way to make it slightly easier for backups to get on the field. We’re really talking about sacrificing Allen and Williams for Brinkley and Griffen? Really?
by Birdman84 on Jan 12, 2012 8:36 AM CST reply actions 3 recs
I doubt it too
but if the players do not want to play in a 3-4 defense then what should the team do?
That is what this is planning for. I do not like to get rid of Allen at all. I think he can be just like DeMarcus Ware who had 19.5 sacks this year. He did not get those dropping in to coverage very often. Allen would rush the passer just as much as he does now most likely.
But again, his salary is 11.68 mil this year and 14.3 mil in 2013. There also could be an additional cap hit in each year of 2.58 mil for his prorated signing bonus. The team could be looking at that as well. I think they should extend him a couple of years to be honest in order to lower the cap hit.
No they wouldn't.
Richard Seymour is getting 15 mil (from Al Davis)
Elvis Dumervill is getting 14 mil (8 mil base salary, 6 mil signing bonus)
Gerald McCoy is getting 12.8 million (rookie deal before new CBA)
That’s the 3 highest paid players on the defensive side of the ball in the NFL right now.
Jared Allen is under contract right now for 14.3 mil plus bonuses in 2013. He will probably be the highest paid defensive player at that time. He will not get more than 10-12 mil a year in any contract after that. He’ll be 32 or 33, and he’ll probably get a 4 year/44 mil deal
He'll be 30 in April
So he’ll be 32 heading into that season. Just like I said.
I said 32 or 33
because I didn’t want to look up his brithday.
I did, and it’s in April. So he will turn 30 around draft time.
And he will be 32 in 2 years when he will likely leave because our “re-build” process isn’t going as fast as he’d like and he wants to compete for a title. DE’s don’t last long in this league.
Reggie White played 6 seasons after the age of 32 (33-39)(He didn’t play at 38).
Only 3 of those 6 seasons did he have double digit sacks.
Bruce Smith played 8 seasons after the age of 32 (33-40).
Only 4 of those 8 seasons did he have double digit sacks.
MN’s own Chris Doleman played 6 seasons after the age of 32 (33-38)
Only 3 of those 6 seasons did he have double digit sacks.
Get the point? If we sign him long-term, we won’t get the production we’re paying for. If we let him walk, we won’t get anything.
He’s got 2 good years left (historically), and after that we’ll either sign him for too much money or let him walk and get nothing.
His value is at an all time high.
What don’t you understand?
Do you understand that teams build for the future, not just the next season? Because yes, we’ll be better next year with Jared Allen, but in the future, it makes perfect sense to trade him.
he will be a top 5 DE, for at least 4-5 maybe 7-9 more years
Chris had a great article illustrating how the great DEs play well into their late 30s because they play with great technique, it is not just power. Allen could and probably will be a 8-10 sack guy until 2017-2018.
Yes. In 7 years Jared Allen will probably be an 8-10 sack guy
But he’ll be getting 12 million to do it. Not worth it. I think it’s pretty general to plan on a re-build process to take 4 years-ish. A 34 year old JA will average maybe 8-11 sacks for 2 or 3 years after that, but he’ll take up 1/10 of the team’s salary. Not a good idea.
No player gets paid that much
They are always restructuring. You think another team would pay him 25 million in 3-5 years? Of course not, that is as ludacris a comment as I have ever seen. He will sign a deal for a couple years at around 9-12 mil/year. then anotherone at about 7-10 dependin on performance. Players salaries do not keep increasing throughout their careers if they play past their primes. Eventually, they will come back down. Allen would most likely sign a 5yr-55-60 mil contract with 3yr-33 mil guaranteed (9-11-13). but that is all he would get anywhere else too.
nice post.
common sense prevails yet again!
So unless you plan on a 7-10 year rebuild, there is no reason to not have him in your plans
otherwise you just need to find a way to replace him anyway. trading him just opens up way more issues on ther Dline. Have Robison or Griffin doen anyhting to show that they can play on the Right side of the D-line and take on those double and tripple teams? No, they have not. Whilst they are very capable LDEs it is a totally different story then playing RDE
you honestly think that jared allen...
will be a TOP FIVE DE in 7-9 years? really?
I was refering to the Top 5 of all time.
He will probably still be an 7-8 sack guy which puts him in the top 15 year. Just by the way he plays. Maybe not 9 years, but def in 7, if he does not sustain a serious injury, then yeah. Look at all the HOFers that played that well into their 30s-early40s and he is just as good if not better than them
i seriously doubt he'll be in even the top 15 in 7 years...
maybe not even top 30 or so. heck, he’ll probably be retired by then even.
but i fail to see how top 5 all-time matters. i could care less what a guy did over the life of his career; it’s about what he’s doing right now. this is a business.
#15 DE in sacks this year
Got 10. Might Allen be worth 10 sacks in 7-9 years? Maybe. It’s certainly not impossible.
But honestly, who cares? 7-9 years is a football lifetime for now, and really shouldn’t weigh into planning at all at this stage.
(Incidentally, advancednflstats.com has Allen with 23 this year. Interesting).
DE's aren't measured in just sacks
The #15 DE in sacks got 10 this year, but Justin Smith of SF only had 7.5, and he was a top 5 DE this year.
Dwight Freeney only had 8.5 sacks, good enough for #26 in the league. Is he the #26 DE? No.
Jared Allen is one-dimensional. That’s what I’m saying. He is very good at that one dimension, and he was the best DE in the NFL this year, but if he gets 10 sacks in the future, he will not necessarily be the #15 DE or whatever the stats say.
Wow
Allen is one dimensional? that’s nuts.
Yes. He is.
He is a top 3 “pass-rusher” at the DE position, no doubt.
But he is not a top 20 “run-stopper” at the DE position.
Which in why he's
Fourth in tackles, 14th in assists, and second in tackles for a loss?
That doesn't mean everything...
Some of the best DE’s affect the running game so much that they don’t run to that side of the field. They usually run to Jared Allen’s side because they know he’ll be around the tackle already on half of the running plays.
I would hope he puts up decent tackling numbers when they run at him ALL THE TIME…
As bad as Remi has been, very few teams run up the middle against us because of Kevin Williams… If you go back and watch, a lot of runs were to the left side over the tackle…
It's all a moot point
The league is becoming more of a passing league every year, at least for the teams which want to win. Pressure on the quarterback up front and the LB’s and secondary stopping the receivers in back are what matters, not stopping the running game.
by liveforadrenaline on Jan 13, 2012 3:42 PM CST up reply actions
that's not true...
…he’s also great at hitting Ray Edwards in the nuts! That’s a whole new dimension.
It's impossible to get through to this.
You have a very uncanny fetish for Jared Allen. There is NO WAY that a 37 or 38 year old Jared Allen will be a top 15 DE in the league. I can name 8-10 right off the top of my head that will probably be better, and that’s not counting the younger DE’s that haven’t been drafted yet.
Jared Allen will be, at age 37, a top 35 DE in this league (He’d probably be the best DE on some teams, 2nd best on others), and he’ll be paid like a top 5 DE based on past performance.
you are ignoring NFL trends...
JA will provide a few to several years of high quality production and that is more valuable to the franchise now than gaining draft picks to “rebuild” for the future that may not work out at all.
With your logic, we should trade all our best players for draft picks and start from scratch. It doesn’t work that way.
maybe not switch?
I don’t see getting Brinkley on the field as so compelling as to require a change of scheme, and Griffen can get on the field at RE.
The only thing I don't like about this plan
is trading Jared Allen away. He is the heart and soul of this defense, and has an unstoppable motor. I know we could get a good draft pick for him, but he is worth keeping around for several more years, IMO.
It's all about the players.
Coaches don’t win games, players do.
The same can be said for schemes. The important thing here is that the best scheme is the one that emphasizes the players best attributes.
We need coordinators in place who, with the head coach, decide the basic scheme they are going to attempt to implement. Only then, imo, can the team target the appropriate personnel that stand a chance at excelling on the field. So the coaching staff and scheme need to get settled first.
The sooner they get it done the better because free agency opens up in March. And we all know the GM is going to want to crunch a bunch of numbers and do all his analytical stuff before he pulls the trigger on any specific signings or picks.
by Lars in SLP on Jan 12, 2012 9:55 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Coaches win games...
…are you telling me Bill Belichick and Jim Harbaugh aren’t directly responsible for the success of their respective teams? Coaches are responsible not only for implementing a successful scheme, but getting the guys to “buy in”, coach them to properly play the position, and keep them motivated if the player is struggling. Great coaches get the most out of the talent they are given.
Boy I can’t wait until Spielman confirms the scheme so we can get off this 3-4 BS. It’s getting really tiresome.
Dude, it is just for discussion
Do I think it will happen? No. I see no reason why we could not speculate about it now though. About the what if.
The only thing I know that Spielman said for sure is that “everything is on the table”. This was after he said Ponder would be the QB.
So to me, that is a good thing. They are discussing every option. Nothing wrong with that.
And if you noticed, I did include an option where Allen was kept. That is what I would like to do most of all. I think he can be used similar to DeMarcus Ware. I could see a lineup like this using the free agents and draft picks I selected above …
LDE – Ballard/Guion
NT – Soliai/Ayodele/Chapman
RDE – Carriker/Wolfe/Howard
LOLB – Robison/Griffen/McClellin
ILB – Greenway/Brinkley
ILB – Griffen/Erin H/Robinson
ROLB – Allen/Griffen/Brown
… the secondary would be as described above. They may also keep Winfield too.
part of me
Actually wants Spielman to push for this over Frazier’s objection so that he will be gone time next year after we go 3-13 again. It would be nice to have an experience GM.
But I’m not quite that masochistic.
I'd much rather have Spielman than Frazier...
Spielman has been/is going to be quite good IMO.
I haven't seen much
To make me believe that. We’ve not exactly lit up the draft since he’s been here, and the fact that this 3-4 talk is still going on after Frazier said he isn’t interested and while they aren’t interviewing 3-4 DCs is not a good sign of leadership.
I don’t know whether Frazier will pan out either, but I have more faith in him than Spielman.
Of course, my first preference is that they both pan out and we win a super bowl next year ;)
I do not know how you could have faith in Frazier
He has ZERO head coaching acumen. He looks lost throughout almost every game. I wish he would just step down back to a DC or something. But he seems to lack the instict good coached need to produce good football product. How many times did you have one of the “I can;t believe he just did that moments” I think I had 10 in the first 2-3 weeks. I am still up in the air about Spielman as a GM, but I have totally given up on frazier as a head coach, 1.5 years is enough time to evaluate a HC IMO, even without talent a good coach should be able to lead his team to some type of improvement (even if it is not reflected on the scoreboard). It seemed teh Vikes regressed at all positions throughout the year.
I said "more faith"
I have essentially none in Spielman.
And I don’t do my evaluation based on a coach’s facial expression.
we're on the opposite ends of the spectrum, again...
i have quite a bit of faith in spielman and have wanted him to have much more power for a couple of years now; i have liked his drafts and overall personnel moves (with some exceptions of course). frazier i want to like and i want to do well of course, but i have zero faith in.
If he can not produce improvment in 23 games
He can not do it in 40 or 50. Good coaches can make bad players improve. They can make them play above their skill set. Frazier can not do this at all. He has actually made good players regress
Leadership...
Comes from COACHING aka Frazier, not Spielman. It’s not Rick’s fault that Leslie hasn’t coached talent up to their potential, is it? That, to me, is counterintuitive.
Just remember
switching to a 3-4 doesn’t magically switch the horrendous secondary.
Either way (I prefer 4-3, just more aggressive) we are going to need at least one safety and at least one corner. Throw in a new MLB, (EJ just can’t cover the middle like Urlacher anymore.) as well.
by Jepp The Viking on Jan 12, 2012 10:29 AM CST reply actions
let me count the ways
In which I think this is wrong, more or less in order they come up:
1. The 3-4: We’ve discussed this to death. But let me just say I don’t get how the switch could be required by the personnel we have but at the same time we have to trade away our two best defensive players to make it work. That makes no sense. What you are saying is that we should trade away two hall of famers because we need to get time for a back up linebacker and a rookie DE who must be forced to play out of position. Again, to me, no sense.
What makes a lot more sense to me and solves the Griffen problem (a good one to have!), is moving Robison back to his old spot of rotational rusher, where he seems to perform best anyway, and putting Griffen in as the starting RE. That way we get the most of our linemen and we actually have some depth at a key defensive position. That’s a good thing.
Moving on.
2. The Viking free agents: I mostly agree, except that Guion and Erin Henderson are going to be pretty cheap and are capable enough as depth. That’s not to say that we must keep them, but they wouldn’t put them on the list of guys not to resign (even “until later”). Sapp’s also likely cheap depth that might be worth keeping for the right price.
3. Winfield: For $3 mil. I’d keep him around for veteran presence, either at SS or as the nickle. If nothing else, he’s a good guy to have for depth because you’re going to be just fine if you have to move him into a starting corner spot. But it’s a close call.
4. Free agent signing. This part’s really hard. There’s no way we’re going to be able to sign new guys for all the spots we have to fill, so guys like Fred Evans and Sage and others are likely to be back on board (as you say later). I don’t have a problem with targeting your guys, though, just with believing that we’re going to get them all.
5. Trading players: I’ve said it before, but I don’t see the point in trading a guy for less than his replacement value, as you propose doing with Williams. That single pick is unlikely to yield equivalent talent. I’d think about the other two, but I wouldn’t be eager to make them. Value is again a question for Allen. For Cook, it’s a little more appealing due to his baggage, but I guess we already know he’s a guy who can start at corner if he can stay on the field, so why trade him for the possibility that the #66 pick can match that level of contribution? I guess it depends on how much weight you think the baggage adds.
6. Trading down from #3: You’re right, it’s going to take a great poker face to get that deal. Your version is a lot more possible than what others have been saying, because I think you’re right that it’s unlikely that Cleveland gives up both of its first round picks to move up one spot. None of the other contenders have an extra first to give this year, so why should they? I’d still bet Cleveland won’t trade with us to move up, but if we can get your deal we should absolutely take it.
7. Draft picks: With the picks I think we’ll have, I’m not in favor of using a high pick on a guard as I think we need to sort out the personnel we have (Johnson, Fusco and Berger) and guard is in my plan for next year after we’ve had a chance to evaluate those guys. And, of course, I probably wouldn’t make the trade that got us the #12 anyway, so I don’t have to deal with that temptation.
8. Other moves: I’d cut Ayodele. He did nothing this year to earn his contract, so I don’t see the point in continuing to pay him.
by amiller92 on Jan 12, 2012 10:35 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Good take and I agree with a lot
First you did notice that I had a version where I kept Allen right? That is my preference with a contract extension. I think Allen can play just like Ware in Dallas who rushed the passer often enough to get 19.5 sacks. No one has responded about that though.
The entire first option is based on reports where both Allen and KWill said they are not interested in the 3-4 defense. I proposed trades that I think can get done. I do not think the Vikings can get a first round pick for a 32 year old KWill. Maybe they would get an additional future pick that I did not include? If they agree then we keep them both.
The current impending free agents have not been offered a contract yet leading me to believe the team will let them test the market. Even Erin H and Guion. The writing is on the wall for them. They can see what is out there and then maybe the team will offer them a deal. I mean why haven’t they done it yet? The team is willing to lose these players IMO.
I think Winfield could be kept around depending on free agency. His salary could lower to around 3 mil (actually it is the average of the top 5 slot CBs). I have no problem with keeping him but that would mean that Allen or Sherels would be gone. Winfield is good but he definitely is losing a step.
The free agent signings are just a wish. A man can dream right? I do not know if they can get those players or even if the players will want to come here. I do believe they will sign some players. Maybe they sign a Thomas DeCoud and Richard Marshall? I could live with that. Maybe they sign an Aubrayo Franklin or Antonio Garay?
I do not think the Vikings will get much more in the trades than I listed. I know we want more but I do not think other teams will give that much up. And since the players said they want out publicly it lowers the leverage.
I could take a guard later too and my second option kept Allen.
I think Ayodele may have had a problem with Dunbar because there in no way he fell off the map in just one season. He still would have to earn his job and in this fantasy Soliai would start.
Keep the 4-3, Do not trade Allen or Kwill
1. Restructure Allen to a 5yr-60mil with the first 3yrs guranteed at (9-11-13 Mil).
2. Sign Michael Griffin (FS), Brandon Carr (CB), Paul Soliai (DT), John Carlson (TE), and Pierre Garcon (WR) to the deals you mention (all seem very resonable).
3. Do the trade W CLE to move back one spot. Draft would look like:
#4: Matt Kalil OT
#35 Mark Barron SS
#36 Lavonte David OLB
#67 Kevin Zeiter OG
THE rest could go the way you had listed up their, would be ok.
The the starting Def would look like:
DT: Kwill, Soliai with Ballard as a sit/rotating player
DE: JA/Griffin with Robison rotating
LBs: Greenway/Brinkley/David
CB: Carr/Cook/Hayward/Sherels/Sapp (or whomever)
FS: Michael Griffin
SS: Mark Barron
To me that is a vastly improved defense.
The Offense would be:
Kalil/Johnson/Sully/Zeiter/Loadholdt
WR: Garcon/Harvin/Jenkins
TE: Rudolph/Carlson
RB: AD/Toby
QB:Ponder/Webb
’That also looke like a much better O-Line
I like your posts and enjoy reading them. I know you put some stuff out there just to creat discussion
It just seems like there is TOO much change for one year. Space it out over 2-3 years and it would be great. Allen will still fetch a 1st rounder after 2012 and maybe even 2013. I would keep him while he is still trending upwards. You sell on the downswing, that is what NE does. They do not trade their best players in their prime. They trade them after they have shown some drop off but still have the name recognition to garner 1st rd talent in return. right now JA>1st rd talent. When JA< or equal to first rd talent, that is when you dump him
i think those of us in favor of the 3-4 switch think...
it doesn’t much matter how quickly. this is a 3-13 team; changes ARE needed.
Too much in unrealistic and not possible
Show me a team one time that has had a 60% roster overhaul of mostly starting players in one season. I bet you can’t find more than one
Especially since the statistics show that
A team can get an improvement of about 1.2 points per game using a 3-4.
by liveforadrenaline on Jan 12, 2012 2:45 PM CST up reply actions
That would be AWESOME: +5
I would pair Zietler with Kalil on the left side of the line, but love the post!
just throwing this out there...
Barron and Hayward will be long gone by 35 and 117, respectively.
i’ve already done the 3-4 convo so i’ll refrain =)
"Th_r_'s n_ h_p_ f_r _ssh_l_ f_ckw_ts."
Can I buy a vowel...?? +1, Kluwe.
Mark (and I) go strictly off of the ratings
Current player ratings has them both available. I use http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/TSX/2012
I think Mark does too
I agree about Barron being gone at 35
But if we traded Allen for a later first (in the 20-24 range) and a 2nd (52-57) we could easily get Barron with the pick in the 20s…
That’s what I think we’d have to do if we want Barron.
If we trade JA, we could basically turn him into Mark Barron, a pick around 55, and whatever we choose to spent that extra 8-10 million dollars on.
Which would help this team much more than a great DE. We have too many holes to re-tool. We are in re-build phase. Trading Allen only speeds that up.
Trading Allen may fill one hole. But it takes away the best DE in the game
and we do not have anyone to fill the RDE spot. Anyone can play the LDE spot because Allen and Kwill take all the double teams and sometimes triple teams on one side and the left side is left one-on-one. Trading Allen only makes the Def worse.
Trading Allen fills one spot?
We’d get a 1st round pick (1 spot), a 2nd round pick (2 spots), and something around 8-9 million dollars to spend (1-3 spots). If we can turn that 8-9 million dollars into 1 1/2 players (let’s say we spend 6 mil a year each on Garcon and Finnegan), we will turn Jared Allen into:
Mark Barron??
2nd round pick (LB or DB probably) (I’ll use Markelle Martin for example)
Cortland Finnegan
and 1/2 of Pierre Garcon’s salary.
I would say a Defense with:
Finnegan, Barron, Martin (for argument’s sake) and Robison and Griffin at DE
Is a better Defense than one with:
Benny Sapp, Jamarca Sanford, Hussein Abdullah, and Jared Allen and Brian Robison at DE.
THERE ARE TOO MANY HOLES TO RE-TOOL.
WE ARE RE-BUILDING NOW, and if we aren’t, we should be.
Totally agree
We have too many holes to have that much $$$ going to one player that is not the QB
Straight Cash Homey
by MOSScomeBACK2vikes on Jan 12, 2012 12:10 PM CST up reply actions
You're right
I just think that with more money we can bring in more and better pieces
Straight Cash Homey
by MOSScomeBACK2vikes on Jan 12, 2012 12:15 PM CST up reply actions
No true. they have to want to come here
The second you start butchering the pieces you already have that are great, FAs will see it and they will not come here, for any reasonable amount of money. They will see that you are not trying to remain competitive and will go elsewhere. You must remember if they are good enough for us 31 other teams should be in pursuit too and we do not have enough money to outbid everyone for all the pieces we need
players sign for money...
if we offer more money, they’ll come here. that’s the way it always works.
i agree we can fill more holes without JA, much as i love him.
But any other team would offer close that is a winner
they would go there, they always do. Show me how many occasions a team picking in the top 3 has netted more than 1 of the best FAs out there in one season. i would like to see it
i'd say look at pretty much any FA year...
and you’ll find them.
Fill more holes with what?
I’m not sold on garcon or that hothead Finnegan. No thanks on both. Besides, not all players go for the most money. Good players want rings and a place on a winner. If you want mediocre FA’s then trade JA for picks and see what you really get for him.
how do you know the 1st rounder will be starter or the second rounder?
yea you may fill holes with marginally better talent, but then you are left with PRO-BOWL level hole at LDE. it is pretty easy to understand. yes you can fill players but it is their talaent level that is important. How many players in the draft are better at DE the JA right now? oh none, so the pick we would have to use ON a LDE of equal talent does not exist. Smart people would find it more logical to give him an extension that spreads out the larger slalary over more years. That alone would save 5-6 mil per year. I woul rather have JA and 5-6 mil per year more for 3-5 more years than any player we can get in the late first round or late secodn round
You do realize that there is a strong chance that first rounders will be starters right?
You do understand that some of these players do develop into Pro Bowlers?
Look at Jason Pierre-Paul. On the opposite end look at Brandon Graham and Derrick Morgan.
Fear of the unknown is not an option.
At some point in time all players need to be replaced. And sometimes it happens earlier than expected because of various reasons of which money is most important.
by MarkSP18 on Jan 12, 2012 1:11 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
right, and again...
jared allen is at his highest possible value point right now. he will never have higher trade value than he does right now. it will only decline from here. especially given his contract status.
Didnt they say that last year too?
yes you all did. and Now it is higher. if anyhting it will go up next year because teams will only have to take one ONE year of his current contract. it is just simple math
I agree 100%
He’s important to this team, but in 4 or 5 years, when we’re competing for a Super Bowl (optimistic, I know), he’ll be about the tenth best DE in the league, but he’ll be paid like the best. That’s not smart planning.
It is called restructuring. His contract is only 2 more years.
No other team that signs him after would give him #1 DE money anyway. I do not understand how people can not see that. Players never play out their contracts, they always re-sign for more years at less money IF the team wants them
Jared Allen will probably play out this contract.
Either that, or we sign him to about a 6 year/65 million dollar deal.
Which is a terrible plan financially.
When he’s 34-37 he’ll be getting paid over 10 mil a year, and he’ll deserve around 6 mil a year.
That puts a big crunch on us signing our young superstars and what not. If Ponder, Percy, Rudolph, etc. turn out to be very good, or is we sign a younger FA like Jackson long-term, that JA contract will only come back to haunt us.
Where do you come up with this stuff?
I have a T-shirt that says “I just make stuff up”. You should get one!
Dissagree.
Finnegan is not an impact player like Allen. Nor would the 1st round pick, and absolutely not the 2nd round pick. If Green Bay would have traded away Reggie White they would not have been the same. I don’t think your grasping the impact this one player has on our entire defense and what an offense can and can’t do.
You keep Jared Allen and you improve elsewhere by other means. The Lions made mistakes always trading away good defensive players to snag more draft picks and FA’s and it back fired over and over again until they stuck with their stars and built around them.
I agree 100% that Finnegan isn't an impact player like Jared Allen.
I have never and never will argue otherwise. But when we could realistically get 2 new safeties and Cortland Finnegan, along with half of the salary of a legit WR, it’s not even close.
Jared Allen is a great player. We just went 3-13 and he had his best season ever. I understand he is a game changer, but he’s not someone that changes the outcome of the games. If we had two new safeties and a new CB, we would have a totally re-vamped secondary. Along with Winfield and Cook, we would actually have a good secondary.
CB’s: Finnegan, Cook, Winfield
S’s: Barron, Martin, Raymond
That’s something that will improve us from 3-13. Jared Allen won’t. As evident this past season.
Really?
" If we had two new safeties and a new CB, we would have a totally re-vamped secondary. Along with Winfield and Cook, we would actually have a good secondary.
CB’s: Finnegan, Cook, Winfield
S’s: Barron, Martin, Raymond
That’s something that will improve us from 3-13. Jared Allen won’t. As evident this past season."
Rookies don’t typically play well in the secondary. It is a hard position to transition from the college level to the Pro’s. Besides, if the vikes stay with their cover 2 defensive scheme, we REALLY need to pressure the QB!!!
I agree with RJB in that many of the players I picked will be gone by the time I selected them
but a man can dream in January right?
that's all we really can do, is dream :-/
the Combine and FA can’t get here fast enough…
"Th_r_'s n_ h_p_ f_r _ssh_l_ f_ckw_ts."
Can I buy a vowel...?? +1, Kluwe.
Only trade Allen if you can get what you gave up for him
A high end 1st rounder and 2 3rd rounders. If Vikings don’t do it this year, I don’t think teams will give up good enough value later on. He is a hot commodity, and I say SELL HIGH. of course the price has to be right
Straight Cash Homey
by MOSScomeBACK2vikes on Jan 12, 2012 12:09 PM CST reply actions
A High End 1st rounder?
We got Jared Allen and a 6th rounder
FOR
#17, 2 3rd rounders, and a 6th rounder.
- is not high end. I think we could get a 1st in the 20-27 range, along with a 2nd rounder or 2 3rd rounders.
Isnt that what people said last year?!?!
“Oh trade him now, his value will never be higher!”
Well Guess what?!? it GOT HIGHER, it will not decrease next year, even if he has a slightly down year. if he winds up with ONLY 12-14 sack or even 10. Teams will still want his talent and will give up the first rounder to get him. Anyhting after that doeant really matter anyway.
Teams will not give up a 1st rounder
For a 31 year old DE with 1 year and 14.5 mil due on their contract.
If he has a down year and only has 10-12 sacks, we could probably ask for 3rd’s.
Yea right.
We would have gotten easily more than that for Edwards and he had just 8.5 at his best. What you say has no context on any other trade that has every happen with a top DE. Seymore got more than a first and it was a very high first. and he is about the same age.
we could have gotten more than a 1st for edwards?
not a chance.
seymour got more than a 1st at his highest value point, and from a senile al davis. good luck getting that deal again. especially when draft picks are now more valuable than they’ve ever been.
Richard Seymor
got a 1st.
From Al Davis.
Who is now dead (God bless his soul), but nobody else would have given up even a 2nd for him.
If nothing else
I’m loving the idea of fleecing the Browns out of their pick and getting Kalil anyways. Not only would that be freaking awesome, but I could theoretically see it happening.
The big question is, how much are they willing to give up for a new QB, even one being touted as ‘Cam Newton 2.0’? I get McCoy was quite the dissapointment this year, but I’ve heard the coaches say over and over it’s because of the switch to the WCO, and that he shouldn’t be seen any differently than as a rookie because of it. How much of that is the coaches simply “backing their man” and actually believing they might have a future with him, I dunno. if it’s the later, I don’t know how much they’d be willing to give away to get a new QB.
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you have to back your man until you get a new one to replace him.
Also, that kind of talk might lead other teams to belive you are not interested and limit them from wanting to trade up thinking they can draft him when he comes to their turn.
Absolutely a possibility.
I’m not saying that the Browns are sold on McCoy. From what little I did see of him this year, I wouldn’t be. But then again, coaches are a different breed. You never know what they’re really thinking. Ever.
261 Daily Norseman readers and counting say I am a genius... the masses have spoke!
...and those who voted 'moron' were secretly Packer trolls.
Follow @KJSegall
i think the biggest concern with the browns is scheme...
i love RGIII, but he’s probably not a WCO qb, and that’s holmgren’s scheme. so he may not want him just because of that. i could easily see them signing flynn in FA and having him and mccoy compete.
still, trading back to say, #5 and the skins, wouldn’t be so bad.
Skins are #6 but I agree with your statement
Straight Cash Homey
by MOSScomeBACK2vikes on Jan 12, 2012 6:30 PM CST up reply actions
Why would GB let Flynn walk?
Just sayin. He had 1 great game, that’s it. He is not in a position to demand a stellar contract, yet. If Flynn won’t sign reasonably, he will be the next Matt Cassel. A Product of the system and a disappointment elsewhere.
Keep Allen
Don’t like that Jared Allen trade. We don’t get back anywhere near what he is worth, and the defensive line drops off in a major way. We would instantly have one of the weakest D-lines, definitely worst in the division. And because you used your high draft picks for o-line, we continue to have the worst secondary in the league. So with your moves, we easily have THE worst defense in the league, probably the worst defense in the history of the franchise, as Jared Allen and Williams are the only bright spots on that D, and we were still one of the worst D’s in the league, I believe the purple did lead the league in points allowed. We’d be talking about easily giving up 30 pts a game. Imagine fan reaction to the trade when the defense completely tanks it. Frazier and Spielman will still be on a short leash, and if that type of D takes the field, they are both fired, and the organization scuttles into even more disarray than it is in now, possibly an 0-16 season. How valuable/good is Jared Allen. VERY. Epic. One of the best of all time. And what was our record? 3-13. Imagine our record without him.
Claiborne
If the Rams take Kalil, the Vikings should trade down to Cleveland and take Morris Claiborne. That kid is a freak from an athletic standpoint. Could really change the dynamic on defense. IF Cleveland really wants RGIII, they’ll give us their other first round pick. IF not, trade the pick to WAshington. I would not be opposed to Blackmon either. In this order, the vikes should 1-Draft Kalil, 2-Draft Claiborne, 3-Draft Blackmon—- whether via trading down or keeping the pick, preferably trading down and STILL getting one of those guys. Do not draft RGIII.
If they draft Blackmon...
Instead of OL, I will be soooo disappointed!!! Blackmon is a bust waiting to happen.
Trade Allen and go back to the Pre-Allen Days?
No sir. I’ll pass.
☠★☪Creator of http:/vikescity.info/debates and dedicated DN reader.
by UnBannedVikingholic on Jan 12, 2012 2:08 PM CST reply actions
I applaud the aggressive thinking.
But I still look at the Vikings’ roster and feel very flat at best. I do not like the roster at QB much at all. I think this franchise sorely needs to find a true franchise QB for the next 10-12 years. You know, a guy who might make the Pro Bowl and win a bunch of playoff games. That kind of guy. The team never seems to get it right, and until they do I can’t keep getting excited only to feel horrible again at end of season. If they believe one of the top two or three QBs this draft could be that guy, I would hope they will make a bunch of aggressive trades, but still have the courage to go get that QB they really want. My gut is telling me they are too proud to admit they reached on Ponder, so they will stick with him, regardless of evaluating or any such nonsense. I am very concerned about Peterson and Gerhardt’s knee woes, too. There are so many holes on this team now (including coaches I don’t have any faith in), they absolutely should be ultra-aggressive and creative in trying to shake things up and build for the long haul. No more quick-fixes or patches. Build the Lines. Get a superstar QB in the making (it aint Ponder OR Webb, kids). Demand results of every coach. Switch to a 3-4 if you feel it is the way of the future for the team. Grow a pair and man up, and fix this leaky ship before more fans jump it.
Thanks, Dad...
…for educating us kids. I am probably old enough to be your father. And i will take that bet. Ponder projects to be a Rich Gannon type player in the NFL and he was good enough to take a team like the Raiders to the superbowl. I’ll take that guy all day long.
3-4 or 4-3
I say stay with the 4-3. I agree with the other blogger we need to improve the back end meaning the secondary. I would rather if i had the choice i would rather go and try to sign Laron Landry SS. The reason why i go with this pick is because we need some experience back there as well as being a play maker. If the Vikes is going to draft an OT then i would also make an effort to sign Carl Nicks OG. This move would give us three fifth’s of our offensive line that would be set and stable. I like the take of signing Brandon Carr CB. These two moves would set one side of our secondary then keep Winfield as our NB at a cheaper price as his contract states. I know many people dont agree with this but if some how Chris Cook CB can stay out of jail then we have our other starter. As far as gettin a WR in F/A . I would stay away from Deshawn Jackson or Vincent Jackson they are two high priced premadonna’s. If i was going to go with the Sydney Rice type of Reciever I would try to sign Colston or Manningham. If i could not sign either of them i would try to sign Meachum and then i would draft Jones WR from N.C.. I would also draft Gilmore CB from S.C. The only way i see us getting both of these guys if we make a trade and get a second round pick to go with our 2nd R pick. If that is not the case i would go with Gilmore in the 2nd R because we can always get a quality WR in the 3rd or 4th R. Bottom line fix the secondary, O-line, Get some WR’s that scare people and free up Percy Harvin.
I hope the Front office isn't that stupid
To trade Jared Allen. Then to add to it: Kevin Williams? You can build a great defense around these 2, still. Age is not a concern right now with these 2 guys and the numbers back it up along with the eye test.
Acting like this is “SIMS” or something and not a real actual business is getting out of hand. Trade this for this and expect something we know nothing about is going to do this for this on that.
Silly.
+1
This 3-4 idea is absurd on every level. First, the whole idea that it’s “Schemes” in the NFL and not ’players" is ludicrous. You fit your scheme to the players, not vice versa. The idea is to create mismatches for you to exploit, not induce mismatches for the opposition to exploit.
So yeah. Let’s trade away our best 2 defensive players. That makes perfect sense. In return, let’s HOPE we get something useful in the draft, while still not addressing the fact that having an elite pass rush this season (which we had) did NOTHING to improve our hopeless secondary play.
We don’t NEED to switch to the 3-4. We need a secondary that can COVER. We haven’t had one in almost 15 years. Switching to the 3-4 will weaken our run defense, weaken our pass rush, and oh yeah, not address our secondary. Brilliant.
by Shawn Gillogly on Jan 12, 2012 5:02 PM CST up reply actions
Obviously you two did not see the second option that kept Allen
The real reason I did this exercise was because they stated publicly that they were not interested in playing in a 3-4 defense. If Spielman wants to go that route then I have no problem with it since with the two stars on this defense we still finished 3-13.
I think they want to get more of their best defenders on the field. That includes Griffen and Brinkley.
I do not know if it will happen but Spielman did say everything is on the table.
How do you figure
Brinkley is one of their best defenders?
He played his first year when EJ went down
He would have played this year too if he did not get hurt.
I think he is one of the guys they want to get on the field.
I would not be surprised if he is penciled in as the starter to begin training camp.
If you have watched his career and the times the Vikings used him you would know this.
Jasper Brinkley=BIG HITTER
He can lay ppl out. He can stop the run with the best of them, he just struggled in dropping back into coverage…
He probably is a starter in camp
Because EJ is likely gone.
He’s still was the fourth linebacker this year if he was healthy.
Oh
And I’ve watches. And seen that he’s not one of their top defenders, evidenced by his not being a starter and showing significant limitations in his coverage ability.
So far, he’s a solid backup.
That's true..
He def did struggle in pass coverage, but you know what? That’s exactly what they said about E.J. also.
Brinkley was one of the best LB’s in the SEC the year he was drafted (A total powerhouse), and the only reason he fell as far as he did is because he got hurt his junior season, and hadn’t fully recovered for his senior season.
Also, funny enough, right on his combine page it says he’s a very intriguing prospect, and that 3-4 teams should follow his recovery closely… If he’s healthy, he’s a solid LB. And from the looks of it, a great fit in a 3-4… He’s a prototypical 3-4 ILB…
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/jasper-brinkley?id=79840
When I say "the year he was drafted"
I mean he was one of the best LB prospects in the SEC. He was still recovering from his injury his senior season. But his sophomore season, he was first team SEC and possibly the best LB in that conference.
His first year there, as a JuCo transfer.
They kid does have skills, I hope he’s learned the NFL game while he’s sat and watched..
amiller92 is right in that he is only a backup
but the Vikings need to make a decision on extending him after the 2012 season. I think they want to get him on the field at least on running downs.
On passing downs I could see the team playing more in a 4-3 defense because they will want to get after the passer. They may go with 2 LBs and 5 DBs vs certain teams.
There are many variations that they will run but when they believe a team will run they will want Brinkley in there.
He was a good 3-4 prospect
So we hav to switch our system for him?
We finished 3-13 because
the unit is poorly coached. Our special teams can’t cover to save its life, and our secondary can’t make plays with gatling guns to their head.
The D-line is the only part of this defense that pulled its weight. So the logical solution is to round-peg, square hole them, so we can use more players who are below average. Frankly that’s a worse idea than trading them, which I find loathsome.
As far as Brinkley goes, I think he’ll be on the field (if he can be healthy), in a 4-3 as well. We don’t need to shove pieces into a 3-4 to play him. You even state he would’ve played this year (which means in our current base defense). So why do we need to shift to play him?
Also, I hear a lot of the “3-4 is harder to read” meme. Eh, not so much. When it comes to nickel and dime, you’re still stuck with blitzing both (remaining) linebackers to make 1v1 on the O-line. We could drop linemen into coverage in 09-10. Stunts are just as possible from the D-line as they are with linebackers. Confusing an offense with packages is a matter of imagination, not scheme. There are vanilla 3-4 defenses, and imaginative ones. Same as there are w/ 4-3. Poor coaching, like ours was, led to a lack of imagination and made it easy to exploit our secondary.
The issue is poor coaching and poor secondary play. Not 3-4/4-3. We have 4-3 personnel, play the formation that fits them, and coach them well.
by Shawn Gillogly on Jan 13, 2012 7:38 PM CST up reply actions
Great work as always Mark. I do think plenty of people are thinking a switch to a 3-4 would REQUIRE dropping players like JA because those players aren’t considered fits for the system, but I think it is wrong to start thinking that way. As an example of what I am talking about, lets us consider the case of the Houston Texans.
A few years back, they took Mario Williams 1st overall. A prototypical 4-3 DE, he thrived in the 4-3 the Texans ran. Then this year, Wade Phillips brought his “3-4” to Houston and people wondered what they would do with Williams. However, if you watched how Phillips ran his “3-4” it becomes a little easier to see how the defense was adjusted to allow Williams (and his injury replacement Connor Barwin) to play with their hands in the dirt and rush the QB as though they were a traditional 4-3 DE. The defense is commonly referred to as a “Over 3-4”. How it is different from a traditional 3-4 is that the D-line shifts down so the 3 “down” lineman are lined up as they would in a 4-3, but the linebackers shift so that one of the OLB are lined up on the line with the D-lineman, but in a standing position. Essentially, it looks like a 4-3, with one of the DE’s standing up.
What this means for player like Jared Allen is that their role, while it would change slightly, wouldn’t be so drastically changed that the team has to ship them out of town. It would also give players like E.Griffin and Brinkley more opportunities to play and make an impact and also allow the defense to be more versatile (could switch between 4-3/3-4 depending on the opponents) or allow the time to make a proper transition without a roster dump to try and make the change all at once.
The main point of all of this is that just because the Vikings may make changes to the defensive scheme, it doesn’t mean the roster has to start over. The Vikings best players will still be the teams best chance for success in the short and long term.
Mocking the Draft - Writer
MTD's Prospect Library - http://www.youtube.com/user/JoshMTD
Good explanation of the flexibility of a 3-4, Josh
And too many people don’t know the WHY of switching to the 3-4, which is that it is harder to read by the QB, gives more flexibility against passing offenses and is more likely to cause disruption in the passing game, and results in 1.2 more points per game than the traditional 4-3.
by liveforadrenaline on Jan 12, 2012 7:31 PM CST up reply actions
Thanks Josh
I did include the second option because I realize the pass rush would be missing if they got rid of Allen. I think they keep him and he could be just like DeMarcus Ware in Dallas. I do not know how he managed 19.5 sacks but he did so Allen can do it too. I guess I should have bolded the second option.
The reality is the Vikings want to have Griffen on the field and probably Brinkley as well. They need to get their best players on the field the majority of the time for the defense to succeed. If that means they go 3-4 then so be it. Allen could thrive in any defense if he puts his mind to it.
I put the first option in because Allen said himself he was not interested in the 3-4 defense at this point in his career.
The bottom line is his salary is going to count a lot towards the cap which will hinder the Vikings in their pursuit of free agents. If they keep him, which they probably will, they should work on an extension.
Any change that my require trading Allen and Williams
Is not one that gets the best players on the field.
Brinkley was the fourth best linebacker on the team this year.
Haha, yes I think the bold will help. When l first went through, I read it as a alternative draft, but some how missed the all important “keeping JA” part.
I am not as worried about how Allen’s contract will affect free agency. Don’t remember the exact numbers, but when the Vikings tried to trade for Vincent Jackson (who I think they will go hard after this offseason), they were offering up picks and WR#1 money. Jackson had accepted the offer, however Chargers GM A.J. Smith decided to veto because he could (bitter). Outside of Jackson, I wouldn’t expect any big time FA signings, even if there is a defensive system change. Its a matter of cap space, as you point out, but also not the MO of Vikings to have an Eagles-like free agent signings (how did that work out for them?), but instead build through the draft.
I see that most people are thinking that a team will trade with the Rams to get RGIII, but I don’t think that makes much sense. If the point of trading up is to get ahead of the Browns, why would teams spend more to get the 2nd pick then they would to get the 3rd? The Vikings have already said they are looking to move down, or at least very open to doing it, so I think when it comes down to it, trading up to the 3rd overall pick will be cheaper than moving up to the 2nd overall pick. Advantage Vikings. Could definitely see them moving down and grabbing a extra 2012 pick or two on top of a high 2013 pick. Heck, I worked out a trade with a Chiefs fan that sent CB Brandon Carr, 2012 3rd, and 2013 1st to the Vikings for the 3rd overall pick. You could easily replace Carr with their 2012 1st and that is still a trade I will take and bet the real life Vikings could get something better.
Mocking the Draft - Writer
MTD's Prospect Library - http://www.youtube.com/user/JoshMTD
Yes, that was a stipulation of the trade haha. A pipe dream of course.
Mocking the Draft - Writer
MTD's Prospect Library - http://www.youtube.com/user/JoshMTD
by Josh_D on Jan 14, 2012 9:14 AM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
You are making the argument for a 4-3!
The vikes could just sprinkle this modified 3-4 in on some second and third downs to mix it up without drafting or committing to it. It just takes 1 guy that can double as a decent OLB with basic cover skills. Of course, as weak at LB as they are, EGriff might be the experimental guy and that is probably not the best idea.
I am just making the argument that wholesale changes aren’t necessary for the switch to a 3-4. There are some key personnel that would need to be upgraded, as NMVike points out NT, but it doesn’t mean that the roster has to be blown up and most likely won’t be. I would personally like a defense that is more multiple in nature than be cemented to a particular style. Being able to adapt to the talent on hand and the offenses it will see from week to week is more important to me than running a true 4-3 or 3-4.
Mocking the Draft - Writer
MTD's Prospect Library - http://www.youtube.com/user/JoshMTD
That is true.
Pulling that off takes the quality of coaching we don’t have the luxury of at this point, however. We’ve got guys lost in the simple schemes we run now. Adding complexity only works with intelligent players that are well coached. Otherwise, you have more guys out of position. For now, I would rather see us do the things we are capable of doing well.
Over 3-4, Under 4-3
It doesn’t matter. You still need a NT that demands a double team so the LB’s are free to make plays. That’s where philosophy of the 3-4 begins. You put one more athlete (LB) on the field to make plays. But if the NT isn’t attracting a double team, the guards and/or center has free release to the LBs and it’s gonna be a long day for your defense. I’m not sure Soliai fits that description. Ayodele certainly does not.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
by NMVike on Jan 13, 2012 9:48 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
He is doing it now in Miami
6-4 355 is not a NT. He is already one of the best run stuffers in the league according to some sites. He certainly could not hurt in that capacity. There will always be a search for that player though. Maybe I should have selected Dontari Poe instead of Barron at #35?
Maybe it's wrong to compare
But Soliai doesn’t come close to the effectiveness of a Pat Williams. Soliai’s career best for tackles is 39. Pat Williams has had two 80+ tackle seasons, two 60+ tackle seasons and two 50+ tackle seasons.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
How many do?
Vince Wilfork? No
Antonio Garay? No
Kelly Gregg? No
Ahtyba Rubin? Yes if Cleveland played in the 3-4 in 2010 otherwise no because they are in the 4-3 now.
Pat Williams was a rare player. You are going to be hard pressed to find the next one. But you need to get someone. Soliai is starting to blossom in the nose tackle position. He is occupying blockers which is the most important part.
I like him. I know you do not. We will never agree.
I'm not saying I don't like him
I’m just saying that we need to upgrade the NT position, especially if we are even to consider switching to the 3-4.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
Nice piece of work.
I enjoyed the piece and the ensuing discussion. Very interesting.
I don’t think the trades will play out. I’m a pessimist that way.
I like the idea of looking into trades for Allen and Williams and seeing what comes back.
At the end of the day though, I will be satisfied with this draft if we get Kalil, and I will be disappointed in the draft if we don’t. I hate to be single threaded on one player like this, but in my heart of hearts I think that’s where I’m at.
"Man invented language to satisfy his deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
couple things
The Vikings have very few players that would work in a 3-4. One of the ones that would is Kevin Williams, he might be aging but his size and skill (even if it’s diminishing) is almost a prototype for a 3-4 defensive end. Allen would have to go, but you are selling really really low on him, I was thinking the Vikings could get 2 firsts or a first, second, and third for him. Robison would have to go because he doesn’t fit in the 3-4, Ballard might make it as an d-end, there isn’t much on the team that would make a good DT in the 3-4 and all the LBs except Greenway would have to go.
Finding OLBs that can rush the passer 75% of the time and do it well is harder said than done, because they have to drop back in pass coverage more than it would appear they can’t be a liability in coverage. You’re right about the secondary needing a complete overhaul, even if they keep Winfield you can’t expect anything out of him.
There’s just too much that needs to change and the Vikings don’t exactly have the best record with drafting deeply. They might hit on the obvious first rounder… but anything after that is a crap shoot.
The other thing is, you have them cutting 20 people and freeing up 41 million, if you sign a guy like Carr who gets 8mill a year, you’re going to end up with a lot of bad players filling those remain 19 spots simply because of no money. This doesn’t even count how much money it costs to have the #3 pick every round (granted, not as much as it used to)
REPORTER: What do you think is happening to the team?
MICHAEL RAY RICHARDSON: The ship be sinking.
REPORTER: How far can it sink?
MICHAEL RAY RICHARDSON: Sky's the limit.
Is it not more likely
We make the trade with Wash get there 2nd and 3rd, they take Griff and the Browns take Blackmon, with the Rams taking Kalil. From I think its 7 we can pick the Bpa, say Claiborn and have a additional two picks in high rounds to either trade back into the first or draft needs, with more chance of hitting on 2/4 than 2/2.
by mns51 on Jan 13, 2012 6:51 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Trade JA?
No Thanks. I will give up my season tickets(no kidding!) if they trade JA.
3-4 switch? Allen has already done it.
Jared Allen’s play this year has already demonstrated the advantages of a 3-4 set for the Vikings. Allen’s mobility and versatility, even covering passes, has shown that the Vikings play their best D in a 3-4 formation. In fact, if the Vikings do make the switch officially, that would make Everson Griffin the perfect guy to replace Allen on the right side as a rushing linebacker, should they decide to trade the sack leader for a first rounder.
Thanks to everyone for the great input
Imagine if I would have included the part where the Vikings select RG3 and trade Ponder at the same time as switching to the 3-4? Wow! This post may have been banned. :)
I am disappointed in one thing though.
Throughout all these posts I have not seen anyone give up some love for the Peoples’ Champion!
What’s up with that?
Did anyone pour a little bit out?
You know you will be missing him next year when Shuler or Reisner try to make that block like JK did.
He will be missed
Got to love the Peoples Champ! Not that he can be replaced or anything, but be sure to check out Georgia FB/TE Bruce Figgins. Dude is 6’3 272 athlete (sound familiar) and probably lasts late into the draft if drafted. He will be playing in the Shrine game this weekend, so give it a watch. Another 3rd Day guy to watch, in that vein, is Evan Rodriguez out of Temple. Compact H-Back/FB that does it all out of motion or lined up in the backfield.
Mocking the Draft - Writer
MTD's Prospect Library - http://www.youtube.com/user/JoshMTD
Yup and I really like him in the later rounds like you do too. He reminds me of Stanley Havili out of USC last year. Great in the passing game, but needs work on blocking. Could develop nicely in the K-Sauce/FB role.
Mocking the Draft - Writer
MTD's Prospect Library - http://www.youtube.com/user/JoshMTD
Pretty good analysis.
I would trade Kevin Williams to Philadelphia for pick #45
I would trade Chris Cook and a 2013 5th round pick to the Rams for pick #66
I dunno, most teams wouldn’t trade for Chris Cook IMO [unless his legal situation is worked out].
And, a second round pick is quite a bit for an older defensive lineman. And not to Philly, they’re stacked at DL.
I do admire the work you put into your draft analysis, though. The Vikings moving to a 3-4 might not be a bad idea… If you do trade Allen, though, I think you would want more than what you got from Seattle. Plus, it would add a need for a premium pass rusher, and you would likely have to pick one in this draft or find one in free agency if you did indeed trade Allen. I don’t really know of any off the top of my head, but I’d say that would be the number 1 priority for the D.
15-1
Back on track to Super Bowl XLVI!
MattFlynn4StartingQB
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