Attempting To Gauge Jared Allen's Shot At The NFL's All-Time Sack Record

If Allen averages 15 sacks a year for the next three years, he’d need to average 6.25 sacks per year from age 33 to age 40 to tie Smith (or 10 sacks per year if he only plays through age 37).

If Allen averages 12 sacks a year for the next three years, he’d need to average 7.4 sacks per year from age 33 to age 40 (or 11.8 sacks per year through age 37).

If Allen averages just 10 sacks a year for the next three years, he’d need to average 8.5 sacks per year from age 33 to age 40 (or 13 sacks per year through age 37).

If he stays healthy and productive and maintains his speed, I think he can do it. But how great he is over the next three or four years will be integral to his chances.

If you look at the numbers from ages 30-36 (36, since that’s when Strahan retired), it looks VERY good for Jared Allen. Two guys average sack total per year actually improved after the age of 30, while the other two guys saw minimal drop-off.

Smith 11.3 (drop off of 0.2)
White 11.6 age (drop off of 4.2)
Doleman 10.4 (improvement of 1.3)
Strahan 11.4 (improvement of 3.6)

That means, of these 4 guys, their average rate of change is actually an improvement overall after the age of 30 of 0.13 sacks per year. That means, that Allen’s sack total by the time he reaches 36 (assuming his career numbers mimic these 4 guys) could be as high as 197. If he plays even a few more years after the age of 36, he has a very real shot at breaking 200.

I think he’s the kind of guy that’s going to age well.

However, Reggie White is easily the greatest pass rusher of all-time. Holy moly, those numbers are ridiculous.

Then Allen will surpass… btw, who is number 3?

A few seasons back, Drew Brees came VERY close to beating Dan Marino’s passing yardage record. After breaking it this year and being asked about that, he admitted he never thought he would get close again after that, and that it had been his best shot.

30 is not that old for a guy like Jared Allen. He’s had one noteable injury his entire career and it hasn’t slowed him down one iota. He’s a guy who plays 40% physical and 60% technique, which usually bodes well for a player’s longevity. And hell, just one year after posting such ‘terrible’ numbers and ‘being totally washed up’, look how he responded. He’s one of those rare football players with freakish athleticism, but the intelligence, work ethic, and willpower to NOT need to rely upon it.

I say, upon Vikings’ kickoff 2012, Jared Allen Sack Record Watch Part 2 begins. Teams might be ‘more on the watch’ for him, but if Brian Robison picks his game back up some, and our secondary improves and doesn’t allow QBs to throw at will (like I posted above), that might be easier said than done. All things considered, Allen got this close this season really despite all odds- rarely playing with a lead, no secondary to speak of, and relatively minimal pash rush support (although KWill’s resurgence certainly helped, I would imagine). Just imagine, with a better team, what he might yet accomplish.

I’m not done rooting for the single-season record folks!

I hope the that a new DC doesn’t negatively affect Jared’s effectiveness.