FanPost

Which is more likely? Vikes make playoffs? or AP breaks Dickerson's record?

OK, based on the impressive size of my brain as depicted below..this is my attempt to make some statistical sense of this question..

Homer-simpson-brain_medium

via www.footballphds.com

Based on the formula for converting spreads to percent chance of winning from this link:

The vikes are currently around a 3-pt underdog on the road at St Loo.. guess-timating that they will also be about a 7-pt dog at HOU and 4-pt dog at home vs Pack in weeks 16 and 17, that yields:

Spread Pct chance of winning
-3 .41
-7 .25
-4 .34

which multiplies out to about 3.5% chance of winning out.. But alas, we also need Dallas to lose once, Washington to lose once, and Chicago to lose once to either GB or DET (better chance of that than SEA losing twice, so we'll leave that out).

very roughly speaking , i will assume is about a 90% chance for for each of those three scenarios..which if multiplied out to about 73%..which reduces the 3.5% chance to about:

2.5% chance of vikes making playoffs.

If that wasn't unscientific enough...

What are the odds that AP eclipses 2105 yds rushing? Well, he'll need to average 168.33 yrds per game for the remaining 3 games..

ok, so what are the odds of that? here i am saying that since he broke 168 yrds in 3 out of 14 games this year, that is about 21%.. but there are extra yards in there.. so i have raised the percent chance he will break 168 yds in each game to 25% per game, which multiplies out to about:

1.5% chance of AP breaking the single season rushing record of 2,105 yds

So there you have it.. my fuzzy math says it is one percent more likely that Vikes make playoffs than AP breaking ED's record..however both seem very unlikely..

Feel free to rip holes in my logic.. if someone can produce actual scientific probabilities here, please post, i would love to see them..

Also probably much more accurate than my "math", is what DN'ers feel about the topic..

So adding poll question below to see how that compares:

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Daily Norseman

You must be a member of Daily Norseman to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Daily Norseman. You should read them.

Join Daily Norseman

You must be a member of Daily Norseman to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Daily Norseman. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker