Vikings A More Attractive Trade Partner Than Rams?
by Christopher Gates on Feb 8, 2012 1:40 PM CST
in 2012 NFL Draft
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PrintMy apologies for my personal lack of activity over the past couple of days, ladies and gentlemen. Let me attempt to rectify that.
Mark Craig from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune makes a pretty good point about teams that could potentially be looking to move up in the 2012 NFL Draft. He points out that, if a team wanted to move up in the draft this year that the Minnesota Vikings would be a much more attractive potential trade partner at #3 than the St. Louis Rams would be at #2.
With the way the draft has fallen, the Indianapolis Colts are likely going to dump Peyton Manning in the near future here and take Andrew Luck. That still leaves Baylor's Robert Griffin III available for teams that might want to move up. Now, the most likely team to grab a quarterback after that is the Cleveland Browns at #4. That's because everybody knows that the Vikings aren't taking a quarterback at #3. . .and more importantly, in this case, everybody knows that the Rams aren't taking a quarterback at #2.
With that being the case, it would be cheaper to move up to the #3 overall pick than it would be to move up to #2. How much cheaper? Well, if we go to the almighty chart. . .and I know not everybody loves the chart, but it gives us something tangible to measure this with. . .we can see what the difference would be. According to the chart, the #2 overall pick is worth 2,600 "points," while the #3 pick is worth 2,200 points.
So say you're the Washington Redskins, one of the teams that has been rumored to be interested in a quarterback like RGIII. Their first three picks are at #6, #39, and #70. Those three picks are worth 2,350 points (1,600 + 510 + 240). In order to move up to the #2 pick, they might have to throw in even more. . .in order to get to #3, they might be able to work out a deal even if they substitute a lower pick (a fourth or fifth-rounder) for that third-round selection.
Think about that. . .it's like if you're going down to the corner store for a Mountain Dew or something. Store A will sell you that Mountain Dew for $1.50. . .Store B will sell it to you for $1.25. More often than not, you're going to hit up Store B, aren't you?
If a team wants to get ahead of Cleveland for the chance to draft RGIII, then the Minnesota Vikings are a much better choice for them than the Rams would be. It will be interesting to see if that comes to fruition on draft day.
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Been beating this drum for a while. Just don’t understand why so many think the Rams are the logical landing spot for a trade down.
Mocking the Draft - Writer
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Me too...
… and throw in the fact that if the Browns aren’t the trade partner – and I think they would be equally happy to grab Trent Richardson to give them the RB they missed out on by not grabbing Peterson when they had the chance and were projected to – then the Redskins would be the logical choice. They would have to consider this though: Cam Newton had arguably the best year for a rookie QB, and yet the Panthers are still picking in the top 10 of the draft. If the Skins have to give this year’s #6, this year’s 2nd round pick, and next year’s 1st round pick – then that is potentially 2 top 10 picks plus a 2nd round pick for a QB that may not be a star. I think that price is too high for a team which if it fails, will be looking to rebuild under a new head coach next year.
by blowfishes on Feb 8, 2012 2:05 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah but...
This is the Skins we’re talking about. Danny Boy Snyder will give up ANYTHING in order to get someone he wants. And then he’ll add a Subway sandwich on top of it.
Seriously, I live in DC, he is the worst thing to happen to the Redskins. And the best thing to happen to every other team looking to get the house for something minimal. The majority of Skins fans hate this guy because he has no long term vision and doesn’t let his coaches build anything. He’s Al Davis 2.0.
"I bang sloots off the field, and I bang dudes on the field."
"I don't give a sh!t what your name is, as long as your initials are DTF."
Thad Castle
Sounds like what he wants more than anything might be Peyton. Still think he would trade up if Manning can still play and signs in DC?
Mocking the Draft - Writer
MTD's Prospect Library - http://www.youtube.com/user/JoshMTD
Nope
But weirder things have happened. Maybe he would REALLY want that kid Zeitler and wants to make sure no one else gets him though and trades us anyways.
:) Just kidding… Or am I? Danny is crazy like a fox…
(In case anyone was wondering, I know he’s not going to go that high.)
"I bang sloots off the field, and I bang dudes on the field."
"I don't give a sh!t what your name is, as long as your initials are DTF."
Thad Castle
Add in the fact that STL would be content to “settle” for taking Kalil and the difference increases even more.
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-Roberto
by blackjackfishtaco on Feb 8, 2012 1:55 PM CST reply actions
FEAR!!
I think some people are afraid that another team might move up to the 2nd spot and therefore they jump and trade with St. Louis themselves and then not losing their franchise QB..
Does it make sence? :b
Vikings should be the one trying to trade their pick
instead of the Rams getting it. We need as many draft picks as possible.
Does anyone else think STL is taking Blackmon? Blackmon/Lloyd/Amendola with Steven Jackson and Bradford puts STL in the right direction and increases their fan interest which seems to be more important if they want their team to stay in STL.
RIP FirstRowSports - Always Stolen But Never Forgotten
I don't see the Rams...
… selecting Blackmon at #2. If they trade down then it’s possible they’ll take him later, but if they stay pat, then they’ll go for LT Kalil or CB Clairbourne.
Now if the Rams do trade down with Cleveland so the Browns can select Griffin III, then there is a possibility that another team may offer a good deal to the Vikings for the chance to select Kalil or Blackmon. That may seriously put a spanner in the works for the Rams.
by blowfishes on Feb 8, 2012 2:12 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Lloyd is a FA
And has said he wanted to go where McDaniels went. So if this is the case the Pats will get Lloyd, which would mean the Rams might even be more interested in Blackmon.
As for the Vikings being the better trade option, say team A wants to trade with the Vikings for a better deal however there is a team B that also want RGIII. If they think a team is ready to trade with the Vikings then all they have to do is make an offer to the Rams to get RGIII. If this team B happened to be the Browns they might not have to give up full trade value to move up to 2 if the Rams want Blackmon and figure the Vikings will take Kalil at 3.
by VikesFanInTulsa on Feb 8, 2012 2:18 PM CST up reply actions
But once FA is over, how many teams are going to need to trade up for a QB? Here are a list of QBs that should find a home before RGIII: (1)Peyton Manning, (2)Matt Flynn, (3)Kyle Orton, and (4) Andrew Luck. Here are the teams looking for a QB: (1)Browns, (2)Redskins, (3)Dolphins, (4)Seahawks, and (5)Indy.
Thats 5 teams looking for QBs and 4 QBs that are likely to be on teams before RGIII is BPA. That could mean that there are no teams that would be looking to move ahead of the Browns and draft RGIII or at the very least only 1 team that would be willing to do so.
The point I am trying to go for here, is that once FA is over, there may not be so many teams trying to claw over themselves to move up and draft RGIII and the bidding war between multiple teams to one up each other in draft trades is not likely to happen.
Mocking the Draft - Writer
MTD's Prospect Library - http://www.youtube.com/user/JoshMTD
Worst Case Scenario
Agree with Josh_D
IMO, worst case scenario is that the Dolphins and Redskins acquire QBs before the draft (Flynn and Manning). At that point, the Browns would be unlikely to trade up with either the Rams or Vikes as they would know that neither team would take RGIII or trade down out of the top 10. Then the Rams would probably take Kalil and the Vikes would be stuck “reaching” for Martin or Reiff or taking BPA.
Once FA is over
I would put a few more teams in the mix. If Orton signs elsewhere the Chiefs. Manning has be linked to a few teams you didn’t mention as well. (49ers, Cardinals) And then there are the Broncos. While they won’t be in the Orton or Manning sweepstakes Flynn makes sense for them.
Being a QB driven league Flynn is going to be the main player come FA. Mannings health question and age should scare off most teams unless your just a QB away from the SB.
I could see Manning (if healthy) going to the 49ers, Cardinals, Jets in that order. Flynn going to either the Seahawks or Dolphins. So this would leave quite a few teams vying for the #2 or #3 spots. And if no team moves up I’d take RGIII at #3 and let the bidding begin for either his or Ponders services maybe even Webb. And take the best offer during the draft as long as a Martin of Reiff was still on the board.
Best case scenario would be to draft RGIII and trade back in the top 10-15 using Ponder and picks to get the LT everyone seems to covet.
by VikesFanInTulsa on Feb 9, 2012 6:53 AM CST up reply actions
Don’t agree with that assessment. Even if the Chiefs lose Orton in FA, they have enough money invested in Cassel (his injury is the only reason they claimed Orton) that they more likely than not be looking to trade up for a QB. The 49ers and Cardinals may have interest in Peyton, but that doesn’t mean they are going to sell out their drafts to get RGIII. The 49ers are at the bottom of the round and would have to trade way too much to even sniff the top 15 let alone the #3 overall pick. The Cardinals have invested heavily in Kolb and doubt they are going to make a move that would essential mean they were wrong to trade their best young CB (at the time) and a 2nd round pick for nothing.
Even if you remove Peyton off the list in the future (assuming he ends up not playing again) there are enough FA QBs to go around that only a couple of teams will be looking at QB early in the draft and as long as one of those teams is the Browns, there won’t be a ton of teams looking to mortgage their draft to move up and grab one.
Best case scenario would be to draft RGIII and trade back in the top 10-15 using Ponder
Here is another meme I just don’t see the logic in. So a rookie QB with no offseason, no OL, virtually no offensive weapons struggles in his first season and the remedy for this is to use another high draft pick on a QB and put them in the same situation? Makes no sense at all. Rick Spielman (the man who makes all the personnel decisions) has gone on public record with his belief in Ponder several times. Ponder is the first time he has ever taken a QB in with a first round pick. The Vikings aren’t going to replace or trade Ponder. I guess people are more than welcome to keep believing the opposite, but you are just setting yourself up for disappointment/anger in something completely out of their control.
Mocking the Draft - Writer
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First off
With regards to Manning, I listed t he 49ers and Cards as possible landing spots to counter him taking one of the teams needy of a QB. I never put the 49ers or Cards as one of the teams looking to trade up for RGIII.
As for the being enough QBs to go around, sure as long as you are only looking for an average or stopgap QB. I would think most teams would like to find their QBOTF and RGIII fits that bill.
As for your 3rd point I guess you’re satisfied like many others here are with what looks like will be an average QB to lead the Vikings into the future. Thats fine I guess. I just think the QB is the most important position on the team and IF you are unlucky enough to find yourself in the position to draft one and don’t do it because you just took a QB the previous year, you’re not looking at the long range future of the team.
Sure the teams needs OL help NOW, but once the line gets taken care of that AVG QB will be the position on the team holding it back from competing for a SB.
by VikesFanInTulsa on Feb 10, 2012 12:26 PM CST up reply actions
So Matt Flynn and Andrew Luck don’t count as QBOTF? The only “average or stop gap QB” outside of Manning is Orton and he would immediately help either the Dolphins or the Seahawks into playoff consideration. There is a learning curve for every QB that enters the league and no guarantee that RGIII will be anything more than a stop gap. Heck, according to you, the Vikings first round pick last year is nothing more than a stop gap, so why wouldn’t teams looking for QBs look more at guys who have experience in the NFL?
Even if we are assuming that Ponder can never be more than average, continuing to draft QBs with their first pick over and over again will do even more to prevent them from getting to the Super Bowl and does nothing for the long range future of the team. One of the reasons the Vikings have so many needs, especially at OL, is because they have neglected using earlier draft picks at the position. If a QB is average with the complete disaster that is the Vikings OL and WRs outside of Harvin, I would gladly give it a year or two to build those positions up to see what the QB was like with actual talent around him then constantly putting it at the feet of a rookie QB. Otherwise every QB you spent a high draft pick on is going into the same shitty situation over and over again while expecting different results. Considering they need to replace three, if not four OL over the next two years, it would be much more beneficial to focus resources there than feeding rookies to the grinder at QB because if they don’t, they will never “get it taken care of” and it won’t matter who is playing QB.
Mocking the Draft - Writer
MTD's Prospect Library - http://www.youtube.com/user/JoshMTD
Luck sure, Flynn maybe not so much. Flynn could end up being another Cassell, Feeley, or Kolb.
There are IMO 2 QBOTF available and they are Luck and RGIII.
You yourself listed 5 teams that need QB and I added a few more.
This thread has drifted from the original. The bottom line is the demand for quality QB outweighs the availability so the Rams or Vikings pick is very valuable. Where we differ is I and a growing number of others think the Vikings would be making a huge mistake if they don’t at least look at the possibility of taking RGIII themselves if he is available at #3.
by VikesFanInTulsa on Feb 10, 2012 2:40 PM CST up reply actions
Rg3 goes #2 most likely
If Luck and RG3 are as advertised, I find it hard to believe they won’t go 1 and 2 respectively. Which would be cool because I hate the idea of the vikes trading down anyway. If they don’t pick RG3 themselves (they should if they can) or kahlil I’ll be pretty disappointed.
I just don’t have faith that speilman and frazier can turn a boatload of later draft picks into starters. Bill belichick they definitely are not.
Not the biggest fan of moving out of # 3
If the Rams remain and select Kalil then I think its in our best interest to look to trade down with the skins but not with anyone out of the top 10. My opinion we have to draft an O-linemen with our first pick. It would certainly make our recievers better drafting blackmon and make our secondary better with claiborne. However, there are LT prospects that can solidify a great position for years to come and it will help out Peterson and our passing game. Offensive linemen are much harder to come by and I believe we are better off going that route.
Its not the sexy pick, but I’ll be dissapointed if we don’t come out of this draft with a sure starter at LT.
by PurpleJesuZ on Feb 8, 2012 2:46 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
the thing is...
…if the rams don’t make a trade and pass on kalil it’s a no brainer to trade down with either cleveland or washington. cleveland will take rg3 and then we take kalil and have extra picks, if washington is the trade partner i believe cleveland will take richardson and then we still get kalil and extra picks. everything is just conjecture until the rams either trade the pick or draft a player.
Timing is the biggest issue I see with us trading down
The Vikings cannot realistically make a deal with another team until they know that the Rams have already selected their player. If Washington were to make a trade today and move up to #3, well that gives the Browns or someone else plenty of time to then swap with the Rams (if they wanted).
Certainly they can make a handshake agreement in principle that would only go into effect once the Vikings are on the clock. But those things don’t usually stay quiet enough. The Rams are still a realistic trade partner for others because then getting RGIII is a sure thing.
If I’m going to save 0.25 by going to store B, but I’m not sure the Mt. Dew will even be there. I might go to store A because it is a sure thing.
what you say here can, and will, be used against you The Daily Gopher
You cant trade your pick until you are on the clock
Nobody (other than fans) is talking draft trades right now because it is so far away. Right now Teams are busy reviewing scouting reports of draft eligble players and potential free agents.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
Are you sure?
Because I seem to remember a lot of trades with draft picks attached. If trading up was that important, wouldn’t you think that you trade someone from your practice squad for draft picks?
Technically you can, I suppose
But it never happens. Draft picks don’t get traded until draft day, and usually not until a team is on the clock. But in the case of veteran players being traded for draft picks, I suppose that is more likely to happen at anytime. But the Vikings will not be trading out of #3 until they are on the clock. They will be listening to offers well before that, but won’t pull the trigger until the pick #2 is in.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
You can trade your pick at any time
There isn’t any advantage trading it before you’re on the clock as you or the team trading with you aren’t sure of the players available. This is pretty much the reason you only see the first overall pick up for grabs before the draft. Although if the Colts get a contract in place with Luck the Rams could start the auction on the #2 pick.
by VikesFanInTulsa on Feb 9, 2012 6:31 AM CST up reply actions
At any time during the draft, yes
I meant that no one is trading picks 3 months away. It makes no sense.
Shouldn’t have written “can’t trade picks” or at least I should have used a different font.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
This is wrong
A team could trade all their pick away today if they wanted. If the Colts wanted to trade the #1 for another teams entire draft today they could do it.
by VikesFanInTulsa on Feb 9, 2012 2:07 PM CST up reply actions
He isn’t suggesting teams CAN’T do it, but that they WON’T do it. Makes no sense to trade this years draft picks with the draft still so far out. The season just ended and teams are just starting to compile all their scouting info and while they may have an idea about what positions they are looking for, the in-house debates over how to address them will last well into draft weekend. While you can trade picks now, there is no advantage to doing so and in turn, no team is going to.
Mocking the Draft - Writer
MTD's Prospect Library - http://www.youtube.com/user/JoshMTD
Take a close look at the title
At any time during the draft, yes This is the statement I say is wrong as you’re allowed to trade your picks at anytime. Are we going to trade our pick #3 3 months prior to the draft? Probably not, however if some team offers up a boatload of picks today, we could do it.
by VikesFanInTulsa on Feb 10, 2012 12:28 PM CST up reply actions
I thought we were talking about the Vikings and the #3 pick?
It’s never happened before that I am aware of, for a team to trade the #3 pick 3 months in advance.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
Draft day conference call
I touched on this in a previous fanpost. Spielman is clearly posturing that he’s eager to field offers for the 3rd pick. I’m worried a bit that teams like the browns and redskins will try and negotiate with both the vikes and rams in hopes of reducing what they will need to give up. This is a somewhat unusual situation whereby there are at least 2 teams who want to move up and 2 teams interested in moving down.
It may come down to which GM has the best poker face, especially if they’re all on a videoconference call together- here’s hoping that Spielman starts playing weekly Texas Hold ’em…
I don't understand why MN is the better option.
If Cleveland were to trade up with MN, Washington or another team could easily leapfrog them. If a team waits to see what StL does, they could lose out. The only way to guarantee one of the top two quarterbacks, is to move up to the 2 spot.
because it is cheaper to do so and because the Rams will not draft a QB for themselves.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
True however
The Rams more than likely won’t take a QB although if a team WANTS a QB they better e willing to make a trade with the Rams or they might just find themselves without said QB. Example…. The Redskins really want RGIII but are thinking the way you are so they talk to the Vikings to move in front of the Browns. Well the Browns are talking to the Rams because the Vikings want more than what the Browns feel is fair value (both 1sts) to move up one slot, so they talk to the Rams who might just be targeting Blackmon all along so they are willing to do a better deal( #4 and 2nd and 3rd)knowing they will still get the player they want @4 and get extra pick(s).
by VikesFanInTulsa on Feb 9, 2012 1:21 PM CST up reply actions
The Rams will not seek less for their #2 pick than the Vikings would for #3
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
You really don't know this
I’m using a hypothetical situation of course. However IF they know they can get the player they want @4 they very well might be willing to less than the trade chart value in order to trade down. They hold the power to make it a deal with them or lose out situation if they want.
by VikesFanInTulsa on Feb 9, 2012 2:05 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not using a hypothetical situation to arrive at my conclusion
Since the Rams have a lot invested in Sam Bradford, it is a given that the #1 player on their board is not a QB. Which means that when they are on the clock at #2, their #1 player will still be on the board. Lurking at #3 is the Minnesota Vikings (a team with very similar needs), who most likely is targeting the same player (Kalil). With that set of facts, not only would it be bad business to be the lowest bidder in a trade-down scenario, it is also a risky situation for the Rams to trade out of #2 because the Vikings will be right there to snatch up the best player available.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
It could happen
Stranger things have, but it would be a dumb move on the part of the Rams IMO.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
I think
If I want RG3 I play both the Vikings and the Rams, knowing that my competitors are doing the same. I think the Rams and the Vikings would also play off of each other in order to secure the best deal for themselves.
It will be a decision that will be made on draft day
If I really want RG3 the sure thing is to trade with the rams, I understand that with us it will be cheaper, but someone could jump them and make the trade with the Rams and they lose the player they want.
we will have to wait until draft day
I do not believe that we are a better option than the Rams
"knowing that my competitors are doing the same"
A team team never knows what their competitors are doing.
"That's because everybody knows that the Vikings aren't taking a quarterback at #3"
And why is that statement true? Because Spielman told Ponder he’d be the starter going into pre-season? I don’t know. That doesn’t say to me that we’re absolutely not going to draft RG3. Also, I think Spielman is very comfortable communicating one thing and then heading in the complete opposite direction. Remember all the talk in 2009 about not drafting players with character issues and that list of names axed from the Vikings draft board? Reading between the lines many assumed they were saying that the Vikings wouldn’t consider Harvin because he failed his drug test at the Combine. Well, as we know, they picked him anyway. Spielman is all about the misdirections and keeping people guessing.
I think there’s a chance, albeit a small one, that the Vikings grab RG3 if he’s there and Kalil is already gone. The truth is that if they don’t get offered a nutty amount of picks, I think they should take RG3.
"Men are creatures with two legs and eight hands. - Jayne Mansfield
Vey small chance
Like 5% or less. It’s just too big a risk, with too small an upside.
As others have said above
I think the biggest danger to this is the ‘bidding war’ possibility. The Browns hear the Redskins are trading up with the Vikings to nap RGIII, and so the Browns negotiate with the Rams.
Maybe, maybe not. Predicting the draft is… fun… LOL. Mark, where are you?!
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So what?
As I see it, we’re in a great spot regardless.
If the Rams trade away their #2 spot, whoever takes it will nab RG3 leaving us the awesome Kalil (or Blackmon or Clairborne). We get a known good thing. Fine by me.
If the Rams don’t trade away their #2 and take Kalil instead of RG3, then we get a buttload of picks and that can’t really hurt either (hopefully).
I prefer option #1 where we get Kalil or Blackmon or Clairborne.
Rams hold ALL the cards
The truth is that the Rams sit in a very enviable position. In fact, if I were on their management team, I’d be leaking rumors that the Vikings are thinking about taking RGIII — get that thought into the public consciousness and let it simmer a bit. The way I see it, the ONLY way the Rams pick at #2 is if they want Kalil. That’s it. If they decide that they’d rather pick up a wide receiver (there are a few that will go top 20) they will trade down and load up on picks. They’d be crazy to take Blackmon at #2,(IMHO). A WR at #2 is a reach in any draft year unless you’re getting Jerry Fricken Rice and NONE of the predicted top 10 receivers in the draft have blazing speed (Blackmon runs a 4.55 forty; and the fastest is Kendall Wright at 4.40; for comparison, Harvin has been clocked at 4.32). If they remain top 10 they’ll still get a shot at a good receiver. I just don’t see where the Vikings are in a very enviable position as far as trading is concerned.
We’re in a great spot to get a great player. Take Kalil if he’s available, if not, take Reiff and move on.
idk...
You gotta factor in how the Rams ARE picking first though. What’s that mean trading up to the Vikings pick at #3 would do nothing if another QB needy team traded up to #2 and picked RG3 before the team trading with the Vikings even has a chance to.
I gotta believe there will be more than two teams that are battling to move up for RG3 come draft day. If that’s the case at least one of those teams will try to jump the gun and skip Minnesota’s cheaper route and deal with the Rams to be the one to get RG3.
Besides the Vikings won’t want to trade down unless Kalil is gone so I doubt they’ll be talking trades before their pick is on the clock.. and they know if Kalil is on or off the board.
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