A more statistical look at Johnny football

This is my first post on this site so keep that in mind and thanks for reading.

I will start with the basics. Last year Johnny Manziel attempted 434 passes and completed 295. This is a 68% average which would be spectacular by itself in any NFL uniform. This year so far Manziel has attempted 276 passes and completed 200 for a 72% completion percentage. Last year he threw for 3706 yards and this year so far he has thrown for 2867. I believe he has three games left not counting a bowl game.

The next season stat is very important for those who want to look at Johnny football as a running college quarterback. Last year Johnny had 201 rushes for 1410 yards at an average of 7 yards a carry. This year he has 95 attempts for 553 yards and 5.8 percentage average. To me this is a sign that he is more mature and looking down the field more when he leaves the pocket. He is not looking to run at the first sign of pressure. It can also mean that teams are keeping an extra linebacker to spy on him and take away the run attempts. If Johnny plays in the NFL he must make them pay for doing this and in college he has been able to do that.

The splits also show an interesting trend although he has played more home games than away games he has completed 70 percent of his passes at home and a whopping 78 percent on the road. A 78 percent completion percentage is remarkable in any league.

Since this has come up Mike Evans has 52 receptions for 1147 yards this year. Last year he had 82 receptions for 1105 yards. He is clearly a good receiver. Is it the receiver who makes the quarterback? I thought why not find a comparable receiver we could all agree made his QB’s better and look at his stats. In Calvin Johnsons last year of college his QB’s completed 170 passes, of those 76 went to Calvin Johnson. They threw for 2343 yards and of those 1202 of those were to Calvin Johnson. So simple math tells us that 44.7 percent of their completions went to Calvin Johnson and a whopping 51.3 percent of their total yards went to Calvin Johnson. To my knowledge neither Qb is in the NFL but I might be wrong.

Now for Mr. Evans, who clearly is a top notch receiver, but many scouts question his top end speed. In the NFL he is projected as more of a possession receiver, but that could change depending on his 40 times. This year Mike Evans has accounted for 26% of Johnny footballs completions, this number is nowhere even close to Calvin Johnsons. A more telling number is that he accounts for 40% of Johnnys total yards. However there should be an asterisk here because 274 of Evans yards came in one game.

No matter how you cut the numbers Calvin Johnsons QB’s only completed around 100 passes all year to a receiver other than him, and that was likely on check downs. What is clear is that Evans is Johnny’s bailout guy. This is likely because he knows what to do when his QB leaves the pocket. A skill I’m not sure Vikings receivers possess.

There is one other thing that when you watch the tape on Manziel that stands out. He will attempt to throw the ball into some tight windows. I see this as a positive as the windows in the NFL are much smaller than they are in college.

Now to compare him to the other two QBs, Marcus Mariotta has a 63% completion percentage and a very impressive 22 TD’s to 0 interceptions. His completion percentage is down 5 points from last year although he has thrown fewer interceptions and fewer yards by about 200 than Johnny football. I will also note that in his most important game of the year he completed barely more than 50 percent of his passes. It was not an impressive performance when compared to Johnny’s performance against Alabama. Both teams lost both games.

Bridgewater’s numbers are very impressive a 71.4 percent completion percentage and 2845 yards. However it is worth noting that his level of competition is much different than the SEC. In fact to me that is what separates the quarterbacks and why I would select Johnny football. He has done his incredible feats by going against the best teams in college football. The level of completion between the three QB’s as well as their performance in big games leads me to choose Johnny football first amongst the three.

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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