THE BREAK DOWN:
I know there have been a couple articles on this already, but they didn’t give the trade the actual value the Vikings LOST.
Here is the initial break down:
The Vikings got: 29th overall pick, Cordarrelle Patterson [1 pick]
The Patriots got: pick 52 (2nd rounder), pick 83 (3rd rounder), PICK 102 (4th rounder), and pick 229 (7th rounder). [4 picks]
Total: 4 picks (52, 83, 102, 229) – 1 pick (29) = 3 picks (83, 102, 229)
- Pick 52 became pick 29, so they cancel out.
The Vikings gave up 3 picks… but let’s dig deeper.
The Tampa Bay Bucs traded LaGarrette Blount to the Pats for pick 229. The Vikings then moved back in the 6th round by trading with Tampa Bay.
The Vikings got: the 196th pick and the 229th pick (the 7th rounder they gave the Patriots).
The Bucs got: the 189th pick.
Total: 3 picks (52, 83, 102) – 1 pick (29) = 2 picks (83, 102)
THE TRUE VALUE OF PICK 102:
We all know the value of the 83rd pick, but pick 102 is fuzzy. To analyze the true value of pick 102, we need to hop in Doc Brown’s Delorean, cruse to 88, and go back to the 2012 draft.
The Vikings were sitting pretty with the number 3 overall pick. Slick Rick decided to trade with the Cleveland Browns. The Browns took the 3rd overall selection and we get the 4th overall pick and the Browns 4th Rounder, 5th rounder (139), and 7th rounder.
Fast forward to the 5th round of the 2012 draft… The Vikings have the 138th (their original pick) and 139TH pick (from the Browns). The Detroit Lions covet a young man by the name of Tahir Whitehead (Who?... – KFAN, Common Man reference), so they trade with Minnesota to get the Vikings 5th rounder, 138th overall, and select Tahir. In return the Lions give the Vikings their 2013 fourth round pick; which ended up being the 102 overall pick in 2013. This trade was easy, because we were picking next anyways. With pick 139, we got our man, Robert Blanton- we’ll see how he develops.
Pick 102, was actually a 5th rounder in 2012 (138 overall), which was given to the Lions.
NOTE: There is an unwritten rule for trading draft picks. A current year’s pick is worth a pick ONE ROUND SOONER in the following year. Example: A 4th rounder in 2013 turns into a 3rd rounder in 2014. (Speilmen and other GMs have said this many times and it is evidenced by the Lions/Vikings trade in 2012)
The Vikings actually LOST for Patterson:
2013 Pick: 83
2012 Pick: 138 (5th round pick, which was given to the Lions, and became the 102 pick in the 2013 draft)
Vikings got: 29th overall selection and Cordarrelle Patterson. The 52nd pick became the 29th pick. Pick 102 came from the Lions, which we gave up easily (in 2012) because we got extra picks from the Browns. Therefore the Vikings only “LOST” the 83rd overall selection and Pick 138, the 5th rounder from 2012.
HERE IS HOW EVERYTHING PLAYED OUT:
To Trade Up in Round 2:
In Round 2, the receivers the Vikings would have had to trade up to get:
Patterson, assuming he was still there.
49ers got: 2013 7th rounder and 2014 3rd rounder
Pick 41- Robert Woods (who I liked A LOT)
To jump up to take Woods or Hunter, or even Patterson in the early second, the Vikes would have had to give up a 3rd rounder in 2014 (basically a 4th this year, like the 102nd overall pick the Vikes gave up) and a 7th rounder this year (like the 229 overall pick the Vikes gave up).
- Not much different than what the Vikes actually gave up (the net gain would have been the 83rd pick)
- This also assumes that no team would have taken Patterson at the end of the 1st, and also assumes that the Vikes could have traded up in the second and the cost wouldn’t increase from a bidding war- to get Woods or Hunter.
To Stay-Put in Round 2:
In Round 2, the big name receivers on the board when pick 52 came in:
Rd 2, Pick 59- Aaron Dobson (who was interesting)
Rd 3, Pick 74- Terrance Williams (big play, deep threat)
Rd 3, Pick 76- Keenan Allen (I liked, but didn’t need to have)
Rd 3, Pick 78- Marquise Goodwin (good return man, maybe)
Rd 3, Pick 79 - Markus Wheaton
Long run on WRs here…
To Pick a WR at Number 83:
In Round 3, after pick 83, the big name receivers left where:
Rd 3, Pick 92 - Stedman Bailey (who I liked a lot)
Rd 4, Pick 101- Ace Sanders
Rd 4, Pick 102 - Josh Boyce (Who?... – KFAN, Common Man reference)
Rd 4, Pick 123 - Chris Harper
Rd 4, Pick 128- Quinton Patton
Here were the Vikes options:
They keep picks 52, 83, and 102 and:
a) In round 2 (pick 52), they take Dobson/Williams/Allen (for receiver) and get no return man; or
b) we take Marquise Goodwin (a returner) and then in round 3 (pick 83) we take Stedman Bailey (for receiver).
Do either of these options sound better than Patterson at 29? I’m not enthused about either of them. Also, we know where these players were taken because hindsight is always 20-20. At the time (Thursday at 10:30ish), it was unknown where these players were going to be taken. The sure thing was Patterson at 29th overall; so the Vikes took it.
I understand the “quantity” argument -more depth. But, only one player can have the ball in their hands at a time. So, we get two decent receivers, but only one can make an impact at any given moment. Maybe you keep the picks and draft one receiver and one return guy- who knows? Overall, I side with the “quality” argument here.
THEREFORE, ask yourself: Is rolling the dice on Patterson worth a 5th round pick (Pick 138 in 2012) and a 3rd round pick (Pick 83 in 2013)? I say Yes, what say you?