Hi all. This is my first year playing fantasy football, and am in two leagues. Both leagues require a TE, and I'm not going to lie, I waited really late to draft one. I know consensus knowledge is if you don't get Graham or Gronk (when he's healthy) then don't waste an early pick on one. But in both of my drafts I watched Vernon Davis go around the 4th round. This made me wonder about his outlook this year, and if he warranted a pick in the first 5 rounds, where 1000 yard WRs were still aplenty. So now I will show you why I think Davis is going to underwhelm many this year.
It's hard to look at Davis without also looking at Alex Smith. Both have essentially been tied at the hip since Davis entered the league, just one year after Smith did. I won't bore you with Alex Smith's checkered past as a QB. But I do feel the need to show you that Smith used his TE quite a bit and the easiest way to illustrate this is by showing you his targets per year broken down below (stats provided by fftoday.com):
Notice that his worst year besides his rookie year is 2008? That is also the year Smith was on the IR for a broken bone in his shoulder. J.T. O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill split that year. Go on over to fftoday and sort by targets (I'll be nice and start you here). Last year he ranked 29 out of all TEs in targets. Granted he didn't play in 1 game but that one game would maybe moves him up 5 spots at best. Now go back a year and sort again-> Vernon Davis is 10. Now for fun check 2010-> He's ranked at 8 in targets. 2009 his best year he's 3 in targets. Can you tell me the difference from 2009-2011 and last year? Colin Kaepernick started half of last year. To further show this look at Davis's game log breakdown from last year:
Kaepernick took over on Game 9 and you'll notice that after game 10 his receptions severely dropped. So my suggestion is drop/avoid Davis and pick up Anthony Fasano, Smith's new TE as it appears he loves them and looks their way often. I sure did and am expecting a boom from that waiver wire move.