FanPost

Frigga's Fantasy Football: Week 2 at Chicago

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Frigga Logo (via ccnorsemen)

So, how did your fantasy team do last week? Mine were a little hit or miss, as is usually the case in week 1. Hopefully with a bit more information we'll glean over the next couple weeks, everyone's fantasy teams will be back on track. So, here we are for week 2, and just like last week, Frigga's Fantasy Football will take a look at the scoring projections from the four most popular fantasy football websites on the web in an attempt to find consensus. Sitting or starting depends totally on your own roster and what other options you might have available. Frigga will only consider Vikings players projected for at least 5 fantasy points or more. At this point it probably goes without saying, but the point totals included here assume a standard, 10-team league. NFL.com was called out in the comments of last week's article for being highly unreliable in their projections, and since they couldn't even get their projections released in a timely manner anyway, they have been dropped from the list. I decided to go with the next most popular free fantasy football host, which IMO is Fleaflicker. Check the end of the article for each source's accuracy ratings. So, let's get to it!

Christian Ponder

Week 2 Projections

Passing

Yards

Passing

TDs

INTs

Rush Yards

Rush TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

189

1

1

18

0

10

Yahoo!

207

1

1

17.5

0

12.48

CBS

205

0.7

1.3

12

0

10.6

Fleaflicker

268

1

3

15

0

10.22

Average

217.3

0.93

1.6

15.6

0

10.8

Last week, the fantasy point total projections were pretty much spot on for Christian Ponder, albeit with totally different stat lines. Ponder beat the best passing yardage projection by at least 15 yards and connected for a passing TD, but his 3 INTs completely negated that advantage. ESPN had the most accurate projection for Ponder last week. Interestingly, pretty much every source is nearly identical again for Week 2.

Looking at history, Ponder has not fared particularly well against Chicago. He's only played two complete games against the Bears (came in relief of McNabb in 2011, and then was injured for the 2nd game in 2011), where he scored an average of 8 fantasy points in those games last year. That said, the Bears just allowed 282 passing yards and 2 TDs to Andy Dalton last week for 15 fantasy points, so they aren't sporting a shut-down passing defense at this stage in the season, but nor are they terrible.

Frigga Says: Ponder is still definitely not worth starting, and the above projections seem reasonable until he can prove otherwise. He should still be sitting on your waiver wire.

Adrian Peterson

Week 2 Projections

Rushing Yards

Rushing TDs

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

110

1

17

0

18

Yahoo!

89.5

0.7

20.2

0

14.81

CBS

110.3

1.3

23

0

20.8

Fleaflicker

111

1

18

1

24.9

Average

105.2

1

19.6

0.25

19.98

There is much more consensus this week in the projections for AD than last week. While he underperformed his projections in terms of yardage, he more than made up for it with scores, and more than doubled his lowest scoring projection total (from NFL.com).

Frigga Says: Start him. Done.

Jerome Simpson

Week 2 Projections

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Rushing Yards

Rushing TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

52

0

0

0

5

Yahoo!

32.8

0.1

0

0

4.04

CBS

61

0

0

0

6

Fleaflicker

112

0

0

0

11.2

Average

64.5

0.03

0

0

6.7

Imagine that, we had a Jerome Simpson sighting last week as he scored 14 points! I wrote a blurb last week that he or Wright could end up having a big game, as there were 90+ passing yards unaccounted for in Ponder's Week 1 projection, and as it turns out, Ponder exceeded those yardage projections and put all the leftovers into Jerome Simpson's hands. Simpson also had the most receiving targets of any Vikings player last week. We'll see if that trend continues in Chicago, but Ponder said in his presser that targeting Simpson wasn't by design...Simpson was "just getting open". Jennings only had 1 less target, so he was still clearly in the mix for Ponder. All of the fantasy sources have upped their projections for Jerome Simpson in Week 2, and if he can repeat his performance he'll be a mighty popular waiver wire add for Week 3 (he's already on most people's radars now after last week).

Chicago allowed 28 fantasy points to the Bengals' wide receivers last week, so if Ponder and Simpson can remain in synch once again, there could be plenty of fantasy points to be had.

Frigga Says: Jump ahead of the hype if you have the bench space and grab him now on the cheap, but don't start him just yet. We need to see him do it again before we trust him in our fantasy starting lineups.

Greg Jennings

Week 2 Projections

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Rushing Yards

Rushing TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

47

0

0

0

4

Yahoo!

53.8

0.3

0

0

6.88

CBS

51.3

0

0

0

5

Fleaflicker

66

0

0

0

6.6

Average

54.5

0.08

0

0

5.9

Jennings only hauled in 3 of his 7 targets last week in Detroit, so Ponder was clearly trying to feed him the ball. Unfortunately for Jennings, most of the passes were off target. Jennings had a pretty conservative projection last week, and he failed to meet it. With Jerome Simpson catching 7 of his 8 targets, it's possible he'll be the go-to deep threat in the offense, which could limit Jennings value going forward. It's worth pointing out too that every source has Simpson projected for more points than Jennings this week. But as I mentioned in an earlier post/comment/what-have-you, it may take a few more weeks for Ponder and Jennings to get on the same page as they've never played together. Ponder already has some chemistry with Simpson from working together last season, so it might take some time for Jennings and Ponder to develop that same level of trust and chemistry (something they both mentioned repeatedly during the off-season).

Frigga Says: Keep Jennings on your bench, but don't give up on him yet. He's too talented to be sitting on your league's waiver wire.

Kyle Rudolph

Week 2 Projections

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Rushing Yards

Rushing TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

32

1

0

0

9

Yahoo!

37.7

0.3

0

0

5.4

CBS

24

0.7

0

0

6.2

Fleaflicker

51

0

0

0

5.1

Average

36.2

0.5

0

0

6.6

It's safe to call Kyle Rudolph's Week 1 performance a disappointment, but surprising it should not be. We saw the roller-coaster that was Rudolph's fantasy season last year, and the fact is, if he isn't finding the end-zone, then he as very little value. Here's a fun fact: Kyle Rudolph never had more than 67 yards receiving in a game last year, and he topped 55 yards only twice. Yeah, he scored 9 TDs, and that helped out fantasy owners a lot, but if the Vikings wide receivers continue to emerge, it will only hurt Rudolph's fantasy chances.

Chicago allowed 10 receptions for 83 yards to the Bengals tight ends last week, so that is encouraging, however Rudolph had the following stat lines in two games against the Bears last year: 55 yards and a TD in the first game, and 0 for 0 in the 2nd. It's probably not a coincidence that all of these projections are essentially splitting the difference between those two point totals. You'll be rolling the dice with Rudolph, but aren't you always?

Frigga Says: Keep starting Rudolph for the TD potential, but don't be afraid to bench him for a better option if he can't seem to find the end zone. If Julius Thomas, Kellen Winslow or Dallas Clark are still on your waiver wire, then it would be smart to grab them now for insurance.

Week 2 Projections

Vikings Defense/Special Teams

Blair Walsh

ESPN

7

8

Yahoo!

7.65

8.22

CBS

8.2

9.8

Fleaflicker

14

5

Average

9.2

7.8

As always, if there is one position for which projections are nearly meaningless, it's D/ST and Kicker. But hey, our defense gets to play Jay Cutler this week, and he likes to throw interceptions (he threw one to the Bengals last week even!). I'm sure we all tried to draft the Vikings D/ST and/or Blair Walsh on our fantasy teams, because let's face it, many of us are homers, so there's not much to say here that might convince you otherwise to start or sit.

Frigga Says: Start both with confidence, until we learn more about their trends.

Final Thoughts

Based on the targets we saw for Jarius Wright and Cordarrelle Patterson (2 and 1 respectively), it's probably safe to drop them in all but dynasty/keeper leagues. Feel free to hold onto them for another week or two just in case their usage changes, but it was pretty clear last Sunday that Ponder was trying to get the ball to Jennings and Simpson down the field. The Vikings defense should rebound a bit this week with the return of Kevin Williams, and I would never shy away from starting them against Jay Cutler. I'm hopeful that the entire team can rebound after a dismal showing in the season opener last week.

Oh, and based on the results of the poll from last week's article, Christian Ponder got the most votes for having the least correct projection, but unfortunately his was the most accurate. The least accurate projection would have been Adrian Peterson who far exceeded his projection totals, although Kyle Rudolph was a close 2nd for falling short by about 6 points.

Below I will begin to show you the weekly accuracy ratings for each of the sources I've consulted. The percentages below show how much each source was off for all of the combined scores I included in last week's write-up. I considered breaking it down by position, but that's just too much work and this article is long enough already!

Accuracy Ratings

Total Predicted Points for Week 1

Total Actual Points for Week 1

Week 1 Accuracy Percentage

ESPN

58.4

46

+27% Incorrect

Yahoo!

59.6

56.7

+5.1% Incorrect

CBS

66.8

54

+23.7% Incorrect

NFL.com

49.7

53.74

-7.5% Incorrect

Cumulative Average

58.6

52.61

+11.4% Incorrect

Looking at how far off the projections were last week, Yahoo! had the closest overall prediction of fantasy points for our Minnesota Vikings, while NFL.com was a close second. As I mentioned above, there was some calling out of NFL.com's projections in the comments section of last week's article, and I would have just kept them in the list of sources...except they apparently can't be bothered to publish their weekly projections in a timely manner. So, we'll move on from NFL.com and use Fleaflicker instead. ESPN (who I've largely learned to distrust over the years) had the worst showing, not surprisingly. We'll see how this changes as the season goes along.

And it is here at the end the article that we thank Frigga for her inspiration. If you take my advice, and it doesn't work out...don't blame me. Blame Frigga, and feel free to use her moniker in your swearing and curse word arsenal...it's kinda fun. FRIGGA!!!!!!!

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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