FanPost

Frigga's Fantasy Football: Week 3 vs Cleveland

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0-2. Hopefully your fantasy team is in better shape than our very own Minnesota Vikings. I'm in 7 fantasy leagues this season and after 2 weeks I'm a combined 5-9. Three of my fantasy teams sit at 0-2 with a big uphill battle ahead to make the playoffs. Sometimes draft pick investments don't work out (Cam Newton, cough, cough), and sometimes they far exceed your expectations (Darren McFadden!). Either way, if you find yourself 0-2 and stuck with a bunch of Vikings players on your roster you have no one to blame but yourself (or maybe Frigga).

Like last week, Frigga's Fantasy Football will take a look at the Week 3 scoring projections from the four most popular fantasy football websites on the web in an attempt to find consensus. Sitting or starting depends totally on your own roster and what other options you might have available. Frigga will only consider Vikings players projected for at least 5 fantasy points or more. At this point it probably goes without saying, but the point totals included here assume a standard, 10-team league. Check the end of the article for each source's accuracy ratings. So, let's get to it!

Christian Ponder

Passing

Yards

Passing

TDs

INTs

Rush Yards

Rush TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

179

1

1

16

0

10

Yahoo!

194

1

0.7

19.9

0.1

12.82

CBS

196.7

1.3

1

12

0

13.8

Fleaflicker

246

1

2

15

0

14

Average

203.9

1.08

1.2

15.7

0.03

11.8

Cleveland has a pretty good secondary, led by CB Joe Haden. They have held Ryan Tannehill and Joe Flacco to under 300 yards and 1 passing TD, or roughly 12 fantasy points apiece, which is basically what Ponder has done for the past 2 weeks as well. The projections have been spot on for Christian Ponder thus far, but this week there's a bit more variability with a range of 10-14. While Ponder managed to double his fantasy point totals from Week 1 to Week 2, that's not saying much. Based on his performance the past 2 weeks, and the Cleveland defense, there's really nothing to get excited about this week with Christian Ponder.

Frigga Says: Keep Ponder on your waiver wire.

Adrian Peterson

Rushing Yards

Rushing TDs

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

106

1

13

1

23

Yahoo!

96.7

0.8

18.9

0.1

16.17

CBS

99.3

1

19.3

0

16

Fleaflicker

109

1

15

0

18

Average

102.8

0.95

16.55

0.3

19.4

Analysis, words, words.

Frigga Says: Start him. Done.

Greg Jennings

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Rushing Yards

Rushing TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

49

0

0

0

4

Yahoo!

48.9

0.3

0

0

6.39

CBS

49

0

0

0

4

Fleaflicker

88

0

0

0

9

Average

58.7

0.08

0

0

6.3

It was great to see Jennings finally get on the same page as Christian Ponder last week, as he was targeted 6 times and caught 5 of those targets for 84 yards. After two games, Ponder has targeted Jennings 13 times (same as Simpson). While this is certainly encouraging, 6 targets per game is still not a lot of opportunity for fantasy production. After 2 weeks, Ponder is ranked 27th in passing attempts ahead of only Freeman, Pryor, Wilson, Locker and Gabbert/Henne. The Vikings are still a run-first team whose offense runs through Adrian Peterson, and that will cap any Vikings receiver's production. All that said, despite the presence of CB Joe Haden, the Browns fantasy defense against WR is merely average, allowing a total of 23 fantasy points to opposing teams WR. There's a very good chance that Jennings hits his average projection this week, or even tops it.

Frigga Says: Keep him on the bench unless you're hurting at WR, but he'll be useful as a FLEX play when the BYE weeks hit.

Jerome Simpson

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Rushing Yards

Rushing TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

58

0

0

0

5

Yahoo!

36.9

0.2

0

0

4.67

CBS

62.3

0.3

0

0

7.8

Fleaflicker

45

0

0

0

5

Average

50.6

0.13

0

0

5.8

Simpson is still involved in the offense, although he only caught 2 of his 5 targets last week. He came back down to earth after an unbelievable Week 1. Week 2 was the more typical Jerome Simpson that we're used to seeing. He is the Vikings deep threat, and he will bring down a few long bombs in our West Coast style offense from time to time. But, he's just not someone you can rely on week in and week out. In a deep league, or one that gives long reception bonuses, he's worth a look. In the meantime, keep monitoring the target distribution between Jennings and Simpson to gauge who Ponder is favoring.

Frigga Says: Jerome Simpson should remain on the waiver wire for now, but might be worth a pick-up if he can start to show some consistency.

Kyle Rudolph

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Rushing Yards

Rushing TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

31

1

0

0

9

Yahoo!

34.6

0.3

0

0

5.19

CBS

24

1

0

0

7.4

Fleaflicker

65

1

0

0

13

Average

38.7

0.83

0

0

8.9

Fantasy owners rejoiced when Rudolph found the end zone last week, although almost no one who wasn't actually at the game got to see it. If it hadn't been for the TD though, Rudolph would have disappointed once again, catching only 3 total passes for 31 yards (plus the TD). He's a TD dependent tight end, and we all know that by now. It's worth pointing out that the Browns are very good against the tight end so far this season, allowing an average of only 3 points to the position. That said, they were up against some pretty mediocre tight ends the past two weeks as well: Miami and Baltimore. Rudolph is likely to get you either 3 points, or 9 if he scores, with very little in between.

Frigga Says: Start him if you have to, bench him if you can.

Fantasy Points

Vikings Defense/Special Teams

Blair Walsh

ESPN

8

11

Yahoo!

8.3

8.32

CBS

11.7

11.1

Fleaflicker

14

5

Average

10.5

8.9

The Vikings D/ST took advantage of their matchup against Jay Cutler like I thought they might, and in some formats topped the league for D/ST fantasy performance. They ended up picking off Cutler twice, collecting two fumbles and scored two TDs (thanks Robison and Patterson!). Knowing that Patterson has the ability to take it to the house on any given kickoff return, and knowing we have Jared Allen to rack up a sack or two should make the Vikings D/ST a viable play most weeks. I love them again this week against the backup QB Brian Hoyer, and now that Trent Richardson has been traded I love this matchup even more. Blair Walsh is Mr. Automatic at this point, so hopefully he gets his opportunities (impossible to predict).

Frigga Says: Start both with confidence.

Final Thoughts

Not only do I expect the Vikings to notch their first win of the season in their home opener, I expect the Browns defense to wear down in the fourth quarter. As I've mentioned the Browns are starting 4th year journeyman Brian Hoyer, who was previously their 3rd string QB, in place of the injured Brandon Weedon. And I just learned that Trent Richardson has been traded to the Colts. I would expect Hoyer to struggle to keep the Browns offense on the field (even more so without a viable running game), meaning the Browns defense could be on the field a bit more than usual. The Vikings may not jump out to an early lead or anything, but I expect the Vikings ground game to wear down an otherwise good Browns run defense (they have allowed an average of only 10 fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this year).

Lastly, based on usage the past 2 weeks, Jarius Wright and Cordarrelle Patterson are not worth owning right now. Despite the coaching staff wanting to up Patterson's snap count from 5 or 6 snaps per game, and despite the fact that he's a threat to score as a kickoff returner any given week (and put up 7 total fantasy points last week) I wouldn't believe anything until I see it with regards to Patterson's snap count. And until he can get on the field the opportunities just aren't there. It's too bad Wright bobbled a pass that could have gone for a TD, because that kind of play won't inspire confidence from your QB. Jennings and Simpson's snap counts are essentially double that of Wright, and based on Ponder's low passing attempt totals to begin with, there just simply isn't enough opportunity for any other Vikings receivers to make an impact in fantasy on a regular basis.

Accuracy Ratings

Week 2 Predicted Points

Week 2 Actual Points

Week 2 Accuracy Percentage

Season Predicted Points

Season Actual Points

Season Accuracy Percentage

ESPN

61

71

-14.1%

119.4

117

+2.1%

Yahoo!

59.48

67.08

-11.4%

119.08

123.8

-3.8%

CBS

66.6

77

-13.5%

133.4

131

+1.8%

Fleaflicker

77.02

85

-9.4%

77.02

85

-9.4%

Cumulative Average

66.025

75.02

-12%

124.625

127.63

-2.4%

Fleaflicker had the most accurate total projections last week; however CBS closed the gap on the season total accuracy. It will be interesting to see how these accuracy ratings play out by year's end.

And it is here at the end the article that we thank Frigga for her inspiration. If you take my advice, and it doesn't work out...don't blame me. Blame Frigga, and feel free to use her moniker in your swearing and curse word arsenal...it's kinda fun. FRIGGA!!!!!!!

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a <em>community</em>, that view is no less important.

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