FanPost

Frigga's Fantasy Football: Week 1 at Detroit

9418612892_67ffb1263c_medium

Frigga Logo (via ccnorsemen)

Fantasy Football is back! And I couldn't be more excited about it. If you're like me, then you've had your fantasy draft already (or seven) and have been scouring your league's waiver wires to make last minute roster adjustments, and have been agonizing already about who to start and who to sit on your bench for week 1. And since all we really care about around here are the Minnesota Vikings (let's just be honest about that), this season I'll be writing only about them. If you followed Frigga's draft advice, or got some of Frigga's fantasy roster feedback then you know what Frigga's Fantasy Football is all about. But for any newcomers, let me catch you up to speed. Frigga is a Norse goddess, and wife of Odin. Along with being the most famous mother in Norse mythology, she also is the goddess of love and marriage and is known for her prophetic ways. Therefore, she makes for the perfect muse to inspire a series of articles aimed at forecasting the fantasy prospects of our Minnesota Vikings. Don't think of this as just another Sit/Start resource, but as more of a one-stop shop for all things Fantasy Football and Minnesota Vikings.

Week 1. If there is ever a more difficult week to project in fantasy football, I certainly don't know what it is. NFL Teams have updated rosters, some have new coaching staffs with new schemes and lots of what happened last year is largely irrelevant to this year, both in terms of real life "on the field" stuff, and fantasy football. Remember at this time last year when Adrian Peterson was a 2nd round draft pick (at best) and we were trying to decide how many carries Toby Gerhart might steal from Peterson during the first game? Yeah, Peterson was fine and carried 17 times for 84 yards and 2 TDs amassing over 20 fantasy points that first game. Gerhart? Ha! He carried 6 times and put up at most 2 fantasy points depending on your scoring format. So everything we think we know about this season is about to be challenged. And Week 1 is the most impossible week to predict.

As I did in the draft preview article, Frigga's Fantasy Football posts will take a look at the scoring projections from the four most popular fantasy football websites on the web in an attempt to find consensus. Sitting or starting depends totally on your own roster and what other options you have available, and Frigga will only consider players projected for at least 5 fantasy points or more. And I'll keep a running tally at the end of the post each week to track each source's projection accuracy in fantasy point totals as well. At this point it probably goes without saying, but the point totals included here assume a standard, 10-team league. So, let's get to it!

Christian Ponder

Passing

Yards

Passing

TDs

INTs

Rush Yards

Rush TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

180

1

1

12

0

10

Yahoo!

204

1.1

0.9

17.5

0

12.92

CBS

220

1

1

13

0

11.6

NFL.com

195

0

0

3

0

8.1

Average

200

0.78

0.73

11.34

0

10.7

As you can see, the powers that be are in almost complete agreement of what kind of performance Christian Ponder will have against the Detroit Lions in Week 1. While it is futile to look at 2012 stats to determine fantasy performance in 2013, we don't have anything to go on for the moment, so it will have to suffice for now. The Detroit Lions were ranked 19th in fantasy points against QBs, and allowed an average of 17.43 fantasy points per week to QBs last year. In other words, they were pretty friendly. In two games against Detroit last year, Ponder had one bad game of 4.9 fantasy points and one good game of 17.5 fantasy points. His career average in fantasy points against Detroit in three games is 10.1. That's a pretty small sample size, but the bottom line is, there's no reason to believe that Ponder should do better than the average Detroit allowed to QBs last year. And if Ponder's past performance against Detroit is any indication, then these projections seem pretty accurate.

Frigga Says: Based on what little we have to go on, unless you're in a deep league, Ponder should be sitting on your waiver wire, not on your bench.

Adrian Peterson

Rushing Yards

Rushing TDs

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

102

1

17

0

17.9

Yahoo!

99.1

0.8

19.8

0.1

16.61

CBS

116.7

1

30.7

0

20

NFL.com

84

0

43

0

12.7

Average

100.5

0.7

27.6

0.03

17.2

There is only one real discrepancy here, and that is in the amount of receiving yards. One source has Peterson projected for only 17 receiving yards while another has 43 receiving yards, for a difference of over 2 fantasy points. But guess what, it doesn't matter! Even the lowest projection on the list puts Peterson at or near the top of all running back projections. Last season Detroit did have a respectable defense against running backs, ranked 12th best allowing 16.95 combined fantasy points to opposing team's running backs. But that didn't faze Peterson last year, who ran for 273 yards and a touchdown in 2 games (caught 25 yards on top of that).

Frigga Says: You drafted Peterson #1 overall, so start him dummy!

Greg Jennings

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Rushing Yards

Rushing TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

53

0

0

0

5.3

Yahoo!

52.9

0.3

0

0

6.97

CBS

72

0

0

0

7

NFL.com

35

0

4

0

3.9

Average

53.2

0.08

1

0

5.9

The projections here are all very modest for Greg Jennings, but they are all telling a slightly different story. NFL.com for example thinks Jennings might get a token end-around play with a 4-yard rushing projection, while CBS projects him to be the leading receiver on the team with 72 yards. Even Yahoo thinks Jennings has effectively a 30% chance to score a touchdown. All of those things could happen, or none of them could. Detroit was dreadful in fantasy against wide receivers last year, ranking only 23rd best (2 spots ahead of Minnesota) and allowing an average of 24.13 combined points to opposing team's wide receivers. In the past two seasons in Green Bay Jennings has only managed to play in 2 games against Detroit for 101 combined yards. With Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, he hasn't had a great game against Detroit recently, despite their struggles to contain wide outs.

Frigga Says: Jennings was likely drafted as a backup and should probably stay on your bench until he can prove otherwise. A projection range of roughly 4-7 points is pretty bad for a WR, so start him at your own risk.

Kyle Rudolph

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Rushing Yards

Rushing TDs

Fantasy Points

ESPN

32

1

0

0

9.2

Yahoo!

37

0.3

0

0

5.55

CBS

40.3

1

0

0

10

NFL.com

10

0

0

0

1

Average

29.8

0.58

0

0

6.5

Now we get to the part where the projectionists (is that what they're called?) have no freaking clue what a player will do. Two of the four sources commit to projecting a touchdown, while another projects 1 measly little fantasy point! The range here is pretty wide, although they all have pretty conservative passing yard totals, ranging narrowly from 10-40 yards. If you're starting Kyle Rudolph, you're banking on a red-zone look and maybe a TD. Detroit was equally bad defending tight ends as they were against wide receivers last year, ranked 23rd best and allowed an average of 7.96 points to opposing tight ends. Kyle Rudolph has primarily followed Christian Ponder, as last year he had one bad game (0.8 points) and one great game (12.4 points), lining up with Ponder's games above. Rudolph's career average against Detroit in four games is only 4.3 points, including a game where he didn't catch a single pass in 2011.

Frigga Says: You likely drafted Rudolph as a low-end starter, so you should roll with him unless you've got a significantly better option. He should be a lock for some fantasy points, and the threat to score a TD makes him worth starting almost any given week.

Fantasy Points

Vikings Defense/Special Teams

Blair Walsh

ESPN

5

11

Yahoo!

8.53

9.02

CBS

6.9

11.3

NFL.com

12

12

Average

8.1

10.3

If there is one position for which projections are nearly meaningless, it's D/ST and Kicker. On the bright side, all of the sources project Walsh for a healthy fantasy point total against Detroit, and the Vikings D/ST are once again a borderline Top 10 fantasy play. If you're like me, you probably tried to draft the Vikings D/ST and/or Blair Walsh, so there's not much to say here that might convince you otherwise to start or sit either one.

Frigga Says: Start both with confidence, until we learn more about their trends.

Final Thoughts

Some of you may be wondering about Jerome Simpson, Jarius Wright or Cordarrelle Patterson. To make a long story short, none of those guys is projected for more than 3-5 fantasy points against Detroit. But if you buy all the projections above, then Peterson, Jennings and Rudolph will only account for about 110 of Ponder's 200 passing yards. There could be 90 more passing yards at least to divvy up between those three receivers (or maybe even John Carlson). If you assume most of it goes to Simpson and/or Wright, one of them could have a pretty decent day against Detroit. It's unlikely that they score, since Ponder's 1 projected passing TD will likely go to Kyle Rudolph. But in a super deep league where any fantasy points are better than none, Simpson or Wright could be worth 4-8 fantasy points this week.

And it is here at the end the article that we thank Frigga for her inspiration. If you take my advice, and it doesn't work out...don't blame me. Blame Frigga, and feel free to use her moniker in your swearing and curse word arsenal...it's kinda fun. FRIGGA!!!!!!!

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

SB Nation Featured Video
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Daily Norseman

You must be a member of Daily Norseman to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Daily Norseman. You should read them.

Join Daily Norseman

You must be a member of Daily Norseman to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Daily Norseman. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker