First of all, I'd like to say the idea of "Reaching" for a QB is stupid. Teams don't reach for QB's. They have their own draft big boards and have their QB's ranked how they feel they will work out. The failure by the teams is that they had their QB ranked incorrectly not that they reached for them. The draft analysis on TV never have the same order/rankings GMs do. Like in one guys comment on a previous fanpost kylek037, pointed out these stats:
Tom Brady’s college numbers: Jr: 61.9%, 2427, 7.5 Y/A, 14 TD 10 INT, Sr: 61%, 2217, 7.5 Y/A, 16 TD 6 INT
Joe Montana college numbers: Jr: 52.4%, 1604, 8.5 Y/A, 11 TD 8 INT, Sr: 54.2%, 2010, 6.9 Y/A, 10 TD 9 INT
Brandon Weeden college numbers: Jr: 66.9%, 4277, 8.4 Y/A, 34 TD, 13 INT, Sr: 72.4%, 4727, 8.4 Y/A, 37 TD 13 INT
Danny Wuerffel college numbers: Jr: 64.6% 3266, 10.0 Y/A, 35 TD, 10 INT, Sr: 57.5%, 3625, 10.1 Y/A, 39 TD 13 INT
Tim Couch college numbers: Jr: 66.4% 3884, 7.1 Y/A, 37 TD, 19 INT, Sr: 72.3% 4275, 7.7 Y/A, 36 TD 15 INT
These really show you can't tell by stats or by success which QB's will thrive and become franchise QB's. Theres a level of competitive nature, along with intangibles that sometimes work out and sometimes don't. Pretty much my point is, each team covets different QBs more than others thinking they have the intangibles they see fit to become their guy and would work in their system. We see it each year when QB's get drafted in a totally different order than expected.
Alright now back to Jimmy Garoppolo; his situation is going to be an especially difficult one. There already is talk about him slipping into the 1st. Before there was talk about him slipping into the 2nd. As we get closer to the draft assuming he performs well in the Senior Bowl and does well enough in the Combine that talk and his grade will only increase. Now the problem comes up, even if Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater all get drafted we still won't be the only team that will be looking for a new QB. There are are 6 other teams that will atleast be looking very hard at this QB class: Texans, Jaguars, Browns, Raiders, Titans, and Cardinals. Many of those are obvious but some have been forgotten. The Cardinals signed Carson Palmer as a band-aid but that band-aids career as a starter is just about over and its time to start for them to find a pupil to follow him with a clip board. Ken Whisenhunt just became the Titans new coach as we all know and despite Lockers promise he is too often injured and doesn't show enough promise to make them not look for a new QB to groom. He's no Sam Bradford. Actually hell theres a chance the Rams look for another QB too. Sam Bradfords very good but how often is that guy injured, they may start to look at him as damaged goods. Maybe even the Giants see a guy they want and roll the dice. Who knows. We never seem too. Now the problem with all of that, even after Teddy, Johnny and Blake get drafted theres so many variables that come into play with waiting on our guy. After we pick at #8 the Titans pick right after us, and down the yellow brick road of the first round the Cardinals pick and the Browns pick again (if they don't pick one of the QBs with their 4th pick). Say Minnesota feels Jimmy G or hell even for my point Derek Carr is their guy but feel the #8 pick is too high for them and go in another direction with that pick, theyre then forced to sit there hoping the 3 other teams don't see him as a franchise QB. That or trade back into the 1st to try and get him, but then like last year we're left with very few picks. Now trading also comes into the picture and adds a million more variables. Even if say you risked waiting, planning to trade ahead of the other QB needy teams in the beginning of the 2nd. How do you know that if you don't pick that QB with your first pick that they don't trade up before you get the chance and take them.
Now there is a very good chance one or even two of the top 3 QB's drop to us but then again theres also the very likely chance everyone starts grabbing QB's while they can. So if they feel Jimmy G or Derek Carr IS their guy and the future franchise QB, even if he grades as a bottom of the 1st or early 2nd round pick is it better to just pick him up at #8 and have the position "settled" or sit their crossing our fingers for 32 more picks hoping nobody else somehow sees their value? We all know how hard it is to find a franchise QB.. So what do you do?
So much drama goes with being the 5th QB needy team in the draft order right??