FanPost

QB Primer: Who Should the Vikings be Looking at in April?

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Hint: Not these guys. a.espncdn.com

Hello again everyone! Hope you all had a great Christmas and a fun and safe new year. As I'm on vacation at my dads house, where he managed to be gone the whole time, so I had a quiet and fairly boring holiday break. I mostly sat around and played Madden and watched football. And since we clearly need a QB in next years draft, I thought I'd do some research into QBs and write a long winded article that never ends preview article on them. To be clear, this won't be like one of Arif's articles, where he breaks down their strengths and weaknesses. I will be focusing on their numbers, both raw and some more advanced stats. Both methods have their uses, and compliment each other well. Without further ado, lets get to it.

Raw Numbers

This is by far the easiest set of data to understand, although perhaps the most overrated, if raw numbers can be overrated. The reason that people tend to overrate raw numbers is that there are often times little to no context given with them. This came into play somewhat in my recent article on Cordarrelle Patterson. For Wide Receivers, I use a concept called market share to help equalize different receivers production. Unfortunately, there just isn't a relatively simple, easily available metric to use for QBs. So raw numbers are given more weight when QBs are graded. Lets take a look at the top ten QBs on walterfootball.com's prospect list.

#1 Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville

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via walterfootball.com

Bridgewater seems to be the consensus #1 QB right now, and is in contention to go #1 overall in the draft. His raw numbers are fantastic across the board, and his consistent excellency from year to year is incredible. His 2011, 2012, and 2013 numbers are in the table below.

Year Age % of games with multi-TD passes Comp% TDs INTs Yards Y/A AYA
2011 19 14% 64.2% 14 12 2129 7.19 5.4
2012 20 71% 70.7% 27 8 3718 8.87 9.3
2013 21 80% 70.6% 31 4 3970 9.3 9.7

As you can see from the table, his last two years have been over-the-top ridiculously good. Having back-to-back seasons of 70+ completion % puts him in rarified territory, and his AYA of 9.3 and 9.7 from 2012 and 2013 is downright incredible. For context, here is Andrew Lucks table of raw stats.

Year Age % of games with multi-TD passes Comp% TDs INTs Yards Y/A AYA
2009 20 42% 56.3% 13 4 2575 8.9 9.2
2010 21 77% 70.7% 32 8 3338 9.0 9.7
2011 22 100% 71.3% 37 10 3517 8.7 9.4

Some people think that Bridgewater shouldn't be in the same conversation as Luck or even RGIII. I think that's nonsense. Unless someone much, much more qualified than me can go through and pick out some defect of his on tape, I don't see how you can say that Bridgewater isn't the next elite QB of the NFL. Of course, this is probably a moot point, as the chances of him dropping to us at #8 seem essentially zero, but who knows: Floyd was supposed to be a top five pick, and we drafted him in the 20's. So anything is possible, but for those that are holding their breath for Bridgewater, don't count on it.

#2 Blake Bortles, Central Florida

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Blake Bortles doesn't seem to be getting quite as much hype as some of the other passers in this draft, although his raw numbers are pretty damn good. They're not Teddy Bridgewater good, but still pretty good nonetheless. He had decent numbers-albeit with a small sample size-in 2011, ok numbers in 2012 and very good numbers so far in 2013. As i'm writing this article he is playing Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, and not playing particularly well thus far, although it is still very early in the game and UCF is winning. Anyway, here are his three year college stats. Although he is currently 22, he played the majority of his seasons at the indicated age.

Year Age % of games with multi-TD passes Comp% TDs INTs Yards Y/A AYA
2011 19 22%* 68.2% 6 3 958 8.7 8.6
2012 20 77% 62.9% 25 7 3059 7.7 8.1
2013 21 62% 68.1% 22 7 3280 9.4 9.7

*Bortles was only a part-time player in 2011.

Three things immediately jump out at me when looking at Bortles stats: one, even his "bad" first full year was still solid, two, he definitely isn't in the same caliber of Teddy Bridgewater, and three, he has shown growth across his career, which is something I like to see, as it indicates a player is still improving. If he was to plateau across two different seasons, then that might be an indication that he has stopped improving and has reached his ceiling. Bortles doesn't do that. And while canny observers just scrolled back up and are asking themselves why I didn't point out that Luck and Bridgewater both plateaued, yet are still considered top prospects, its because their first seasons were so unbelievably good its just not realistic to expect them to improve upon that, so they can be given a pass for that.

So what is the final word on Bortles? He just turned in a very good season and seems to be poised to be a first round pick, if not a top 10 pick. Although he has yet to declare, he has recently stated that if he received a first round grade he would declare, and it seems he will definitely receive that grade. Although he is a name to keep in mind, it is again unlikely we will see Bortles drop to us at 8. For context, a recent bleacherreport.com mock draft has him going #3 to the Jags. Two down, eight to go. Onwards and upwards!

#3 Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M

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I'm sure many of you were waiting for this one, as he seems to be a personal favorite of not just many people here on the DN, but in general across the internets. He's just finished up his sophomore year, and has put together a very impressive 2nd year, improving in nearly every category across the board. Here are his two year college stats. Like Bortles, Manziel is now a year older, but played the majority of his seasons a year younger than when he finished them.

Year Age % of games with multi-TD passes Comp% TDs INTs Yards Y/A AYA
2012 19 69.2% 68% 26 9 3706 8.54 8.8
2013 20 69.2% 70% 37 13 4114 9.59 10.0

So, what can we glean from Manziels stats? Well, for one thing, his raw numbers are downright fantastic, and these are just his passing numbers. His rushing numbers are equally prolific, although they took a definite downturn this year, as he didn't rush quite as much. Although he shows up as the number three QB on walterfootball.com's list, purely going off his raw numbers he appears to be the number 2 QB, or even possibly the 1B to Teddy's 1A.

Why isn't he the 1A and Teddy the 1B? Well, for one, he threw interceptions a bit too often for my liking. Second, he beat up on some ridiculously weak opponents, which is what is expected, but wasn't as consistent across this last season as good ol' Teddy was. There are other reasons as well, but i'll discuss them later on when we look at more in depth stats. Spoiler alert, no, its not his off the field issues, although those certainly don't help.

#4 Brett Hundley, UCLA

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Brett Hundley hasn't decided if he is going to declare or not, but it seems that he is leaning toward going pro. Regardless, he has put up some pretty healthy stats in his career, and Matt Miller at Bleacher Report has predicted that he could go as high as #5 to the Raiders. It should be noted though that Hundley is considered raw and unpolished, and that he would need some work in order to be NFL ready. That being said, he has exceptional athletic ability and once he learns the pro game could very well end up an excellent QB. Lets take a look at his stats so far through college.

Year Age % of games with multi-TD passes Comp% TDs INTs Yards Y/A AYA
2012 19 69.2% 66.6% 29 11 3745 7.82 8.0
2013 20 69.2% 67.2% 24 9 3071 8.32 8.5

This is precisely why I like to include a stat like AYA when evaluating a QB. On the surface, he threw for less TDs and less yards. However, he attempted about 100 less passes this year than in 2012, completed a (slightly) higher percentage, and increased his Y/A. So what do these numbers tell us? He is indeed raw, as indicated. Although it may be hard to tell at first glance, his INT rate increased from 2012 to 2013 (from 1 every 43 passes to 1 every 41 passes). His TD rate did increase, as did his Y/A and his AYA, but they are all relatively low and indicate to me that he could do with one more year in college to get some further seasoning. If he does stay in school and progress as a player, he could potentially be vying with Marcus Mariota as the top QB in the draft. As it is, if he declares now, a team will get a talented but not-quite-NFL ready QB.

#5 Derek Carr, Fresno State

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via media.fresnobee.com

Derek Carr is mocked to the Vikings seemingly everywhere I look, so here is where the list really starts to get interesting, as it is here where we see players who have a realistic shot at falling to the Vikings. So lets get started. First up, lets get the bad news out of the way. Yes, Derek Carr is indeed the younger brother of former #1 overall pick, bust extraordinaire, David Carr. Beyond that, read through Derek Carr's bio. See if this sounds familiar at all:

Of course, if that's Derek Carr, they shouldn't complain. Carr may fall on draft day due to his last name—he's the younger brother of David Carr—and because his footwork in the pocket isn't the picture of consistency. But Carr has a pro-style arm, body and IQ. He's been productive while executing two very different offenses at Fresno and comes with the most pro-ready game in the draft outside of Bridgewater.

That quote was taken from the same mock draft article by Matt Miller that I referenced above. Besides the stuff about David Carr, which I already mentioned, is just me or does a lot of that sound VERY familiar to what was said about Ponder coming out of college? Granted, Carr seemingly has a much stronger arm, so maybe the comparisons aren't fair. It just worries me seeing a weakness of his being footwork-its a problem Ponder never seemed to really fix. Anyway, lets take a look at his college numbers.

Year Age % of games with multi-TD passes Comp% TDs INTs Yards Y/A AYA
2009 18 0% 71.4% 0 0 112 7.71 7.7
2010 19 - - - - - - -
2011 20 61.5% 62.6% 26 9 3544 7.95 8.2
2012 21 69.2% 67.3% 37 7 4104 8.03 8.9
2013 22 100% 68.7% 50 8 5082 7.71 8.7

Well, i'll say this about Derek Carr: he can certainly pile up the stats. He's the last potential first round QB I remember throwing 50 TDs since Sam Bradford did it and went #1 overall afterwards. That's just off the top of my head, so I could be mistaken, but still. While the raw numbers are quite good (5000 yards and 50 TDs? Holy shit) he seemingly plateaued between his junior and senior year. Yes, the TDs went up and the INTs stayed close to the same, but besides his INT rate (from once every 73 passes to once every 82 passes) every other stat mostly stayed close to the same. Don't get me wrong, he obviously increases his TDs and his yardage, but he threw 140 more passes between his junior and senior year. And he threw a ridiculous 511 passes his junior year. He attempted over 650 passes as a senior, which is why his AYA actually drops. His TD rate essentially flatlines-from one every 13.2 passes to one every 13.8 passes.

And while it is sometimes OK for a player to plateau if they are already in elite territory before they plateau, was Derek Carr's 2012 season something you would consider elite? Very good yes, but I don't know if i'd put it in the elite category, and his 2013 season didn't really improve upon his 2012 season. Now, there could be other factors which prevented Carr from improving in 2013, who knows. The fact that he didn't improve doesn't necessarily guarantee him to be a bust; he very well could still become a successful NFL QB. It is just a red flag in his resume is all. Another knock against Carr is that he piled up these impressive stats against mostly crappy opponents, with Oregon being the notable exception in 2012 (in which he "only" had 234 yards and 1 TD). Looking at his 2013 schedule, the only team that jumps off the screen at me in his game log is the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl game in which he played USC, and once again had a down game. In that game he attempted a Matt Stafford-esque 54 passes but only completed 29 of them for 216 yards, two TDs and one INT. His AYA for that game was only 3.9, which is freaking pathetic. Definitely not how he imagined ending his college career i'm guessing. Regardless, barring a trade (up or down from the Vikings) it seems many people are expecting us to end up with Carr. Of course, anything could change between now and the draft, so stay tuned.

#6 Tajh Boyd, Clemson

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Tajh Boyd is "only" 6'1", which will surely be held against him come draft weekend. Beyond that, he's had a very solid senior season for Clemson. Truthfully, up until I sat down to write this article, I didn't know a whole lot about Boyd to be honest. Looking over some published information about him, he could go as high as middle first round, or as low as the 2nd round, which means if the Vikings feel he is the QB they want, they could either trade down (if they can), wait till their second round pick and hope he is still there, or even trade back up into the 1st round like they did this past draft. Hopefully they don't fall in love with him and then get stuck picking him at #8 because no one would trade back with them again. Lets take a look at this raw stats and see what they can tell us.

Year Age % of games with multi-TD passes Comp% TDs INTs Yards Y/A AYA
2010 20 28.5% 52.4% 4 3 329 5.22 4.3
2011 21 69.2% 59.7% 33 12 3828 7.67 7.9
2012 22 76.9% 67.2% 36 13 3896 9.12 9.4
2013 23 53.9% 67.6% 29 9 3473 9.31 9.8

Where to start with Boyd's stats? Well, he has improved his Y/A and his AYA every single year he's played, which is fantastic to see. His % of games with multiple TD passes regressed, but he threw somewhat less in 2013 than 2012 (373 and 427 respectively). Still, even with the drop in attempts, his TD rate was slightly worse in 2013 than 2012 (1:12 in 2012, 1:13 in 2013), but his INT rate was much better (1:33 in 2012, 1:41 in 2013). So we have a QB that improves in almost every statistic from his junior to his senior year. Truthfully, I am intrigued with Boyd as a prospect. His height will definitely cause him to fall, but for now he appears to be a prospect with some promise. At least, that is what I thought initially until I dug deeper. They are more advanced stats, so I'll get into them later, but suffice it to say he doesn't come out looking quite as good after all is said and done.

#7 Zach Mettenberger

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via sicollegefootball.files.wordpress.com

I knew that Mettenberger tore his ACL. I knew that it was causing people to drop him fairly dramatically on their draft boards. What I didn't know was if he warranted a relatively high place on draft boards before the injury. After looking at his stats my answer is a resounding maybe. Not helpful, to be sure, but lets take a look at the stats and you can see what I am talking about.

Year Age % of games with multi-TD passes Comp% TDs INTs Yards Y/A AYA
2011 20 0.0% 72.7% 1 0 92 8.36 10.2
2012 21 23.1% 58.8% 12 7 2609 7.41 7.2
2013 22 46.2% 64.9% 22 8 3082 10.41 10.7

The one thing that jumps out at me looking at Mettenberger's stats is his meteoric rise in efficiency from 2012 to 2013-his AYA jumps 3 and half freaking points in one year! Outside of players who go from part time players to full time, I can't remember the last time i've seen a jump that high from one year to the next. His TDs increase and his TD rate improves dramatically, from 1:29 in 2012 to 1:14 in 2013. Damn. However, his INT rate dramatically increases, from 1:50 in 2012 to 1:37 in 2013. This could perhaps be explained away by observing that, because his AYA and Y/A dramatically increased (indicating he was throwing downfield more, thus attempting more difficult passes) it is natural to assume that his INT rate may increase somewhat. As it is, 1:37 is still a decent rate.

On the downside, his completion % is never all that high, although its nice to see it go up even while his AYA and Y/A improves. Still, ~65% is nothing to write home about when you are playing college ball. It is good, to be sure, but it isn't in elite territory. Then again, he plays in the SEC, which has some very good defenses. All in all, Mettenberger is a conundrum for me. Hell, even with the more advanced stats, which we will get to in a bit, show that he is up and down. Definitely a hard prospect to place. On the one hand, we have a massive improvement almost across the board from 2012 to 2013; on the other hand some important statistics worsen, and to top it all off the dude is coming off an ACL surgery, and will thus be unable to work out for teams pre-draft. All that being said, I am intrigued with Mettenberger, and wouldn't be upset if the VIkings draft him with a mid round pick, perhaps a 3rd or 4th if he falls. However, if the Vikings do go that route, Mettenberger almost certainly wouldn't open the season as the starter, as he would spend all of OTAs, minicamps and most of training camp rehabbing. There would be no way he would be ready to start until probably after the bye week at the earliest (assuming its not a really early one again like we had this year). So we will see about Mettenberger; the book is hardly closed on him.

#8 A.J. McCarron, Alabama

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A.J. McCarron is somewhat of an enigma: his stats are sterling, yet they come with a giant asterisk. That asterisk is the fact that the team surrounding him has some of the best talent top to bottom in the the entirety of college football. From the dominant rushing attack to focus on, to the nigh-impenetrable offensive line, McCarron is set up for success. His statistics back this up, but how much should they influence us? Its important to note that Alabama lost three high-round offensive lineman in last years draft, as well as Eddie Lacy in the 2nd round. So he did lose some of the surrounding talent. Lets take a look at the stats and then discuss what they could mean for McCarron and a team that drafts him.

Year Age % of games with multi-TD passes Comp% TDs INTs Yards Y/A AYA
2010 19 0.0% 62.5% 3 0 389 8.10 9.4
2011 21 30.8% 66.8% 16 5 2634 8.03 8.3
2012 22 61.5% 67.2% 30 3 2933 9.34 10.8
2013 23 61.5% 67.6% 26 5 2676 8.75 9.7

Now, these stats are not complete, as McCarron still has a Sugar Bowl to play in. Still, they are a good barometer of who he is as a QB. The thing is, even if he has a flawless game, say 30 attempts, 300 yards and 3 TDs, his AYA stays close to the same. With that hypothetical stat line, it would go from a 9.7 to a 9.9. Unless he does something unheard of, he will have regressed from his stellar 2012 campaign. Don't get me wrong, 9.7 is still a phenomenal AYA, but regression is not something we like to see, and the excuse that he lost talent around him doesn't play well because every college player is dealing with that every year. Don't get me wrong, in McCarrons case it may be more pronounced, but the fact remains it should not be an excuse. If anything, having a team that isn't quite as strong should have caused McCarron to throw the ball more, but he didn't; his attempts have slowly but surely moved downward from their high of 328 in 2011 to 306 in 2013. Not a big drop, really mostly consistent, but even though the teams have changed, even though he has supposedly grown as a passer, he has not thrown the ball more. While this isn't necessarily a bad thing, it makes me wonder why. I wonder that because, assuming McCarron was growing as a passer, Saban (or whoever calls the offensive plays in Alabama) would be letting him take more risks with the football as he got older. Instead, his Y/A dropped, his AYA dropped, his attempts slightly dropped, his TD rate (very slightly) dropped (from 1:11 in 2012 to 1:12) his INT rate worsened (from an admittedly unsustainable 1:105 to a still stellar 1:61). At least the drop in INT rate can be attributed to reversion to the mean; it is statistically near-impossible to keep that sort of rate up. (Just watch me play Madden sometime, I make McCarron look like Peyton freaking Manning). The TD rate drop was very small as well.

What worries me most is the drop in AYA and the dramatic drop in Y/A. This is because, generally speaking, as you decrease something you tend to increase its efficiency. Its why you see Stafford Throw for 5000 yards on something like 2000 pass attempts. Or something like that. Yes, the raw numbers are great, but how he gets there is generally inefficient, outside of Calvin Johnson. There was an article written last year about Stafford in that regard. It showed that, if you take away Megatron, Stafford career efficiency is right in line with Sam Bradfords. Seriously, they are almost identical, minus the massive amount of attempts. Anyways, back to the matter at hand.

Generally speaking, as you increase the number of times you do something, like passing against a defense, you decrease that efficiency. The best players around the NFL are those that are able to keep an elite or at least an above average level of efficiency while they increase the amount of repetitions they receive. There is actually an arguement to made that many teams criminally underuse certain players because they are so much more efficient than their teammates. It isn't hard to figure out who these players are; Calvin Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, Josh Gordon, etc. I haven't crunched the numbers yet, but i'm willing to wager a fairly substantial amount of money (or, you know, substantial for a poor college student) that Greg Jennings had amazing efficiency this season, but was ridiculously underused. On the flip side, even though he is an explosive threat any time he touches the ball, I have a feeling that Cordarrelle Patterson was, at best, average in his efficiency compared to other receiving threats on his team. Note that this is looking at receiving only, which does Patterson a disservice as he is a very talented multi-dimensional threat. But that is neither here nor there. Lets get back to McCarron.

So, what do we make of these up and down numbers from the Alabama QB? Well, truthfully, even though his numbers are strong, he just doesn't seem like that strong of a prospect. He regressed, his role in the offense seemingly didn't grow (although again, to be fair, why throw the ball when you are consistently beating teams by 20+ points) and his numbers regressed even though he received a similar number of attempts. We will look further at McCarron a bit later on, and he does fairly well in some advanced metrics, but I have a hard time trusting him as a prospect.

#9 Kevin Hogan, Stanford

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via 57vje3fqw032jqgx93yq531jak.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com

Poor Kevin Hogan. I actually feel somewhat bad for him, as following in the footsteps of Andrew Luck couldn't have been easy. That being said, he did himself no favors by regressing in almost every category from last year. Admittedly, this is his first full year as the starter, and by all accounts he is returning to school in 2014, which is by far the smart thing to do. You'll see why once we peruse his stats.

Year Age % of games with multi-TD passes Comp% TDs INTs Yards Y/A AYA
2012 20 25.0% 71.7% 9 3 1096 7.21 7.5
2013 21 38.5% 61.4% 20 9 2487 8.98 9.0

The odd thing about Hogan is that some efficiency metrics jump, while others plummet. The obvious ones first: his completion percentage plummets, but his Y/A and AYA both dramatically increase. This is good, as it shows two things. One, he was seemingly throwing downfield more in 2013, and doing so with success. Two, he was throwing TDs at a better clip, as evidenced by his improved TD rate (1:17 in 2012 vs 1:14 in 2013). However, his INT rate worsened, from 1:51 in 2012 to 1:31 in 2013. While 1:31 seems decent enough, it is basically one a game and puts you on pace for 16 INTs in the NFL. Drew Brees can survive throwing that many INTs, but not many others can. As mentioned in the McCarron portion of the article, it is good to see him mostly increase his efficiency while increasing attempts. However, his staggering drop in completion % is troubling. His (possible) saving grace is that he had a relatively small sample size of games in 2012. By all accounts he his going back to school in 2014, and he should improve further. The thing that gives me hope for him is that his AYA was fantastic even with a poor completion %. If he can increase that completion percentage to about 67% or so, while improving his INT rate, he will come out of 2014 in prime position to be a solid mid-to-high round draft pick. For now, there is not much more to say about Hogan. Hopefully by the time he is coming out of school we won't need to worry about drafting a QB.

#10 Stephen Morris, Miami

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At this point, with all due respect to Mr. Morris, we are at a point where anyone drafted here or later will be a project QB. The Vikings don't need a project QB, we need a QBOTF, and soon. As it is, lets take a quick look at Morris' stats.

Year Age % of games with multi-TD passes Comp% TDs INTs Yards Y/A AYA
2010 19* 33.0% 53.6% 7 9 1240 8.11 6.4
2011 20* 0.0% 70.3% 0 2 283 7.65 5.2
2012 21* 50.0% 58.2% 21 7 3345 7.95 8.2
2013 22* 61.5% 57.6% 21 12 3028 8.80 6.0

*It pisses me off to admit this, but I couldn't find his age nor his birthday. I'm sure the first comment will be a link to it lol.

Looking at his stats, we can see a QB who had a very good junior year but regressed in a big way his senior year. There is a QB on our roster who has already done that. Morris' completion % never passes 60% as a full time starter, and his INT rate worsens dramatically between his junior to senior year (1:60 in 2012, 1:29 in 2013). Its nice to see his % of games with multi-TD passes increase year to year, but the rest of his stats are mostly poor, so there isn't much else we can take from them. Its too bad too; after his junior year he looked like a solid prospect who needed to work on his accuracy. Now, he looks like a shitty prospect who needs to work on accuracy and hope he sticks on with a team in the NFL at some point. I realize this sounds a bit harsh, and I'm not meaning to be, but the numbers speak for themselves, unfortunately.

Now that we have gotten that giant 4800 word report out of the way, lets move on to a few more advanced metrics. I promise its not going to be near as long as the first part!

Z Scores, and What They Mean For this QB Class

For those of you who don't know what Z scores are, I will briefly describe them for you. Z scores, to put it simply, are normalized scores that show us if a score is at, below or above the mean. They are considered "normalized" when they are converted to a Z score and the mean of that group of data is 0. If you are below 0, you are below the mean; if you are above 0, you are above the mean. So in the case of our QBs, the higher above 0 they are, the better they are.

Now that you understand what the Z Scores mean, i'll describe to you how I arrived at them and what they're measuring. But first, I must point out, that while I was searching/thinking of a way to measure QBs performance, I read an article in which the author had used Z scores to measure QB performance relative to their peers. What is ironic is that I was planning on testing to see if Z scores could be used, and he went ahead and did it. So, it saves me the trouble of compiling all the data across this seasons college football QB stats, but on the flip side its not my original work. I just wanted to make that abundantly clear; i'm not trying to steal anyones credit. It was in fact Matthew Freedman who, to the best of my knowledge, came up with using Z scores to measure a QBs performance. His work can be found over at rotoviz.com, and you can follow him on twitter @MattFtheOracle.

Anyway, lets take a look what they can tell us about the QBs. The first four Z-Scores are just what they appear to be: normalized scores for certain passing metrics. The last two columns are just basic averages of the different normalized metrics. The first one is the average of completion % and AYA, while the second one is completion %, Y/A and TD/INT ratio. The first table is organized from highest to lowest on the first average, while the second table is ranked on average of the second metric.

Year Player

Z-Score

Completion %

Z-Score

Y/A

Z-Score

AYA

Z-Score

TD/INT

Avg Z-Score

Comp. %-AYA

Avg Z-Score

Comp. %-Y/A-TD/INT

2013

Teddy Bridgewater 1.85 1.87 2.05 2.8 1.95 2.17

2013

Johnny Manziel 1.51 2.06 1.67 0.09 1.59 1.22
2013 Zach Mettenberger 0.76 2.91 2.31 0.2 1.54 1.29
2013 Blake Bortles 1.33 1.87 1.67 0.4 1.50 1.20
2013 Tajh Boyd 1.24 1.87 1.73 0.45 1.49 1.19
2013 Derek Carr 1.69 0.74 1.23 2.3 1.46 1.58
2013 A.J. McCarron 1.24 1.3 1.66 1.47 1.45 1.34
2013 Marcus Mariota 0.44 2.06 2.25 2.67 1.35 1.72
2013 Keith Price 0.89 1.21 1.28 0.85 1.09 0.98
2013 Brett Hundley 1.28 0.93 0.83 0.04 1.06 0.75
2013 Aaron Murray 0.74 1.5 1.34 0.27 1.04 0.84
2013 David Fales 0.62 1.21 1.08 0.09 0.85 0.64

This second table is arranged by the second average, on the far right.

Year Player

Z-Score

Completion %

Z-Score

Y/A

Z-Score

AYA

Z-Score

TD/INT

Avg Z-Score

Comp. %-AYA

Avg Z-Score

Comp. %-Y/A-TD/INT

2013

Teddy Bridgewater 1.85 1.87 2.05 2.8 1.95 2.17

2013

Marcus Mariota 0.44 2.06 2.25 2.67 1.35 1.72
2013 Derek Carr 1.69 0.74 1.23 2.3 1.46 1.58
2013 A.J. McCarron 1.24 1.3 1.66 1.47 1.45 1.34
2013 Johnny Manziel 1.51 2.44 1.92 0.04 1.72 1.33
2013 Zach Mettenberger 0.76 2.91 2.31 0.2 1.54 1.29
2013 Blake Bortles 1.33 1.87 1.73 0.45 1.49 1.20
2013 Tajh Boyd 1.24 1.87 1.73 0.45 1.49 1.19
2013 Keith Price 0.89 1.21 1.28 0.85 1.09 0.98
2013 Brendon Kay 1.42 1.3 0.89 -0.19 1.16 0.84
2013 Aaron Murray 0.74 1.5 1.34 0.27 1.04 0.84
2013 Brent Hundley 1.28 0.93 0.83 0.04 1.06 0.75


So what do these tables tell us? Well, firstly, it tells us that Teddy Bridgewater is far and away the best QB prospect in this draft. His normalized averages lead by a sizeable amount in both categories; he should be the first QB off the board and their shouldn't be consideration about it. That being said, this table shows us how good everyone is in relation to each other, which is an important distinction. It just tells us good the QBs are compared to the nations average; it doesn't tell us that Bridgewater or any others will definitely be good. However, by comparing their stats to earlier prospects (which I did when I showed the table of Bridgewaters stats next to Lucks) we can start to get an idea of what type of prospect he is. Bridgewater not only is the best QB in this class, but he is a comparable prospect to Andrew Luck. Unless the Texans just absolutely fall in love with Jadeveon Clowney, Bridgewater has to be their pick at #1 overall.

So we know that Bridgewater is the #1 QB in the class. What can we get from the rest of the table? Well, we can use other prospects in relation to Bridgewater and each other to get an idea of what some realistic ranges for their career might look like. If we look at the first table, it shows us that Manziel could very well end up as the second best QB from this class, with a very good career. However, if we look the second table, Manziel is toward the bottom of the second tier. Not the bottom of the table of course, just the second grouping of players after Bridgewater. This shows us the bottom range of his possible career outcomes: just one of many QBs from this class that will fail to live up to the hype.

Looking at some of the other QBs, we see that Derek Carr falls into the same type of classification as Manziel; possible #2 QB of this draft with a very good career, or just another bust who failed to live up to the hype. Now, obviously all QBs are capable of busting, but what this table is showing us is hard data that Carr could end up around the 6th best QB from this class. How often is a class deep enough where the 6th best QB is something to write home about? Not the 6th drafted, but the 6th best in the class? Not very often. On the flip side, it is also saying he could end up the #2 QB in this draft. Probably not quite RGIII to Bridgewaters Luck (2012 RGIII, not snickers eating RGIII). This "thought experiment" can be performed with almost all the names we looked at on this list. Some, like Hogan, aren't on here because they aren't considered serious QBs in this draft class. Some just more than likely weren't good enough (looking at you Stephen Morris).

Anyway, you made it through this monstrosity, congrats and thanks for your patience! With all the numbers crunched and the data laid out, who do you think we should go with in the draft? Stay put at 8 and hope for Carr? Try and trade up for Bridgewater (probably not going to happen, I doubt Houston is trading that pick), or trade up for another QB? Or trade back and take a chance on someone like Mettenberger? On the first table he is just below Manziel in potential outcomes, so who knows? One thing is for certain, it'll be an interesting offseason and draft. Thanks again!

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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