via nflhumor.comSo back to it: what does the formula look like? g
Methodology (Warning: Extreme nerdliness lies below) I will once again give credit to AdamJT13 for his blog, adamjt13.blogspot.com, which provides the most comprehensive guide to comp pick rules available. Without his work, these predictions would not be possible. If you are unfamiliar with the basic rules that affect comp picks, they are: 1. Lost players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs do not qualify. 2. Lost players that were picked up during the season the year before do not qualify. 3. Signed players that are released before midseason do not qualify. 4. Players earning low minimum salaries do not qualify. 5. Each player signed cancels out one player lost. 6. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts. It should be noted that although the NFL admits publicly the basic rules above, NFL teams do not know the exact picks that they will be awarded. They have to make assumptions based upon past history, just as I have done. This is the first year I can report that I was able to find all contract values. Yay internet! This incorporates two new items that we learned last year; that the rights to comp picks accompany the trade of a qualifying player, and that the system under the new CBA will continue to qualify players at lower salaries than it had previously done. This year I will hopefully learn another new piece to the puzzle. If a team loses four guys with 7th round value, but signs three guys with 7th round value, for which player is the comp pick awarded? This situation happened in a few cases this year, and with no reference point to work from, I assumed that the comp pick would be awarded for the lowest lost player’s salary. An error in this assumption would have the greatest potential effect on Pittsburgh, which could jump ten places in the 7th round if the highest-salaried lost player is used. The order of picks in each round is based upon contract amount and playing time (number of snaps). AdamJT13 came up with a playing time equation, but he did not make it public, so I am just guessing here based upon recent history. I claim no accuracy on draft order within each round. I awarded 36 normal comp picks this year. This is the most picks awarded in a long time, reflecting a lot of player movement, which may be a result of teams unable to sign their own free agents due to salary cap restrictions. Isaac Sopoaga, who was signed from San Francisco by Philadelphia, and then traded to New England, affected the San Francisco and New England calculations. This was based upon how Drew Stanton (signed by the Jets from the Lions, and then traded to the Colts) was treated last year by the NFL. Last year Phillip Wheeler was a qualifying player on his $715,000 salary after playing more than 1,000 snaps. This year I counted all players in the $700k-$800k range that played a significant number of snaps. The players I am least certain on are Mike Pollak, who was signed for $780,000 and played 68 snaps, and Luke McCown, who was signed for $840,000 and played 16 snaps. I used Washington's signing of Keyaron Fox in 2011 as the relevant history in this instance to count McCown. Atlanta also has two players with “voidable” contracts so their predictions could turn into a complete mess; more detail is provided later. Four teams were given the maximum number of four comp picks: Atlanta, Jets, Baltimore, and St. Louis. None of them would have had a fifth pick if it was allowed. Third round picks are fairly rare, therefore the cut-off point for them is not easily decipherable. There is a possibility Green Bay’s comp pick for losing Greg Jennings will be a 4th rounder. I awarded 2 net value picks at the end (value difference between players lost and signed when the number of players in both categories is equal). Buffalo lost Andy Levitre to a large contract from Tennessee. Oakland lost and signed a large number of players, but the only large contract went to Desmond Bryant, who was signed away by Cleveland. Usually after the net value picks there are a few picks left. The NFL awards a minimum of 32 comp picks each year. Following the net value picks, the NFL will award picks to teams as if there were an 8th round, until the minimum of 32 has been reached. That did not happen this year because 38 picks were awarded through the normal methods. Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/red_zone/2014-NFL-compensatory-pick-projections.html#gmBtj5ki2rkFbvTD.99Uh, okay so who gets picks based off that?
Various team explanations For the purpose of not making this exercise longer than it already is, there are no explanations for teams that did not get projected comp picks. Atlanta Lost: Grimes ($5.5m), V. Walker ($2m), Svitek ($1m), Owens ($1m), L. McCown ($840k), Sidbury ($780k – IR no snaps)* Signed: Umenyiora ($4.25m)*, S. Jackson ($4m) Baltimore Lost: Kruger ($8.1m), Ellerbe ($7m), C. Williams ($5.7m), Reed ($5m) Signed: None Buffalo Lost: Levitre ($7.8m), Rinehart ($1.75m) Signed: Lawson ($3m), Branch ($3m) Cincinnati Lost: Lawson ($3m), Skuta ($1.5m), Sims ($1.5m), Gradkowski ($1.3m), J. Brown ($930k)* Signed: Alex Smith ($880k), Mike Pollak ($780k – 68 snaps)* Dallas Lost: J. Phillips ($1.75m), Jenkins ($1.5m), Butler ($1.5m), Ogletree ($1.3m)*, Coleman ($1 million - IR) Signed: Durant ($1.2m), Allen ($905k)* Detroit Lost: Cherilus ($6.9m), Avril ($6.5m), S. Hill ($3.8m), Durant ($1.2m) Signed: Quin ($4.7m), Bush ($4m), J. Jones ($3.2m) Green Bay Lost: Jennings ($9.5m), Walden ($4m) Signed: None Houston Lost: Barwin ($6m), Casey ($4.8m), Quin ($4.7m), Forsett ($1m), Ball ($1m), D. Jones ($905k) Signed: Reed ($5m), Lechler ($1.8m), G. Jones ($1m) New England Lost: Welker ($6m), Thomas ($3.5m), Chung ($3m), Woodhead ($1.8m) Signed: Amendola ($5.5m), Sopoanga ($3.7m), Svitek ($1m) New York Giant Lost: Bennett ($5.1m), Umenyiora ($4.25m)*, Hixon ($1.2m), Blackburn ($1m) Signed: Myers ($3.6m), J. Brown ($930k)*, Mundy ($780k), Murphy ($715k – 100 snaps)* New York Jets Lost: Landry ($6m), Keller ($4.3m), DeVito ($4.2m), Greene ($3.3m), Bell ($905k), Slauson ($815k) Signed: Goodson ($2.3m), Barnes ($1.3m) Oakland Lost: Bryant ($6.8m), Wheeler ($5.2m), Myers ($3.6m), Goodson ($2.3m), Lechler ($1.8m), Shaughnessy ($1m), Mitchell ($725k) Signed: Roach ($3.25m), Maiava ($2m), Walker ($2m), Sims ($1.5m), Jenkins ($1.5m), Porter ($1.2m), Hunter ($840k), Jennings ($630k)* Pittsburgh Lost: Wallace ($12m), K. Lewis ($5.1m), Mendenhall ($2.5m), Allen ($905k)*, Mundy ($780k) Signed: Gradkowski ($1.3m) St. Louis Lost: Amendola ($5.5m), S. Jackson ($4m), Gibson ($3.25m), Fletcher ($2.6m), Dahl ($1.75m), Turner ($1.5m) Signed: Long ($8.5m), Cook ($7.0m) San Diego Lost: Vasquez ($5.9m), Cason ($2m), V. Martin ($2m), Barnes ($1.3m), Jammer ($1.1m), A. Franklin ($1.1m), S. Phillips ($1m) Signed: Cox ($5m), Freeney ($4.4m - IR), Dunlap ($2m), Woodhead ($1.8m), J. Phillips ($1.75m), Rinehart ($1.75m), Ohrnberger ($675k)* San Francisco Lost: Goldson ($8.25m), Jean-Francois ($5.5m), Walker ($4.4m), Sopoaga ($3.7m), Ginn ($1m) Signed: Dorsey ($3m), Dawson ($2.4m), Dahl ($1.75m), Skuta ($1.5m) Tampa Bay Lost: Bennett ($4.8m), Miller ($2.25m), Biggers ($1.5m), Hayes ($1m) Signed: Goldson ($8.25m), Landri ($1.6m), Casillas ($1.4m), Ogletree ($1.3m)* More details Last year all players on full-season IR were counted. I followed that rule again this year, even though AdamJT13 noted that this was not always the case in the past. The following players were listed above but were not counted in compensatory pick equations for the listed reasons: • Mike Pollak, IND to CIN, low salary, too few snaps • Josh Brown, CIN to NYG, did not play full season for CIN in prior year • Kevin Ogletree, DAL to TB, cut before midseason • Will Allen, PIT to DAL, cut before midseason, signed back with PIT • Rich Ohrnberger, BUF to SD, low salary, too few snaps • Lawrence Sidbury, ATL to IND, low salary, no snaps (full season IR) • Rashad Jennings, JAC to OAK, low salary Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/red_zone/2014-NFL-compensatory-pick-projections.html#gmBtj5ki2rkFbvTD.99What the........ okay tons of info and that results in draft picks for?
Compensatory Picks Awarded (round – team – player lost) 3 – Pittsburgh – Mike Wallace 3 – Green Bay – Greg Jennings 4 – San Francisco – Dashon Goldson 4 – Baltimore – Paul Kruger 4 – Detroit – Gosder Cherilus 4 – Baltimore – Dannell Ellerbe 5 – Houston – Connor Barwin 5 – New York Jets – LaRon Landry 5 – Baltimore – Cary Williams 5 – Atlanta – Brent Grimes 5 – Pittsburgh – Keenan Lewis 5 – New York Giants – Martellus Bennett 5 – Baltimore – Ed Reed 5 – Houston – Glover Quin 6 – New York Jets – Mike DeVito 6 – Green Bay – Erik Walden 6 – New York Jets – Dustin Keller 6 – New England – Patrick Chung 6 – Cincinnati – Manny Lawson 6 – St. Louis – Brandon Gibson 6 – New York Jets – Shonn Greene 7 – St. Louis – Bradley Fletcher 7 – Dallas – Mike Jenkins 7 – Cincinnati – Pat Sims 7 – St. Louis – Craig Dahl 7 – St. Louis – Rob Turner 7 – Dallas – Victor Butler 7 – Cincinnati – Bruce Gradkowski 7 – Tampa Bay – Geno Hayes 7 – Atlanta – Will Svitek 7 – Atlanta – Christopher Owens 7 – San Diego – Shaun Phillips 7 – Dallas – Kenyon Coleman 7 – Houston – Donnie Jones 7 – Atlanta – Luke McCown 7 – Pittsburgh – Ryan Mundy 7 – Buffalo – net value 7 – Oakland – net value Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/red_zone/2014-NFL-compensatory-pick-projections.html#gmBtj5ki2rkFbvTD.99 and after all that the division winner gets some rather high draft picks' and the lowest team in the division gets none. K and now back to some advertising i