How Spielman gets his 10 picks in the 2014 NFL Draft

1 - If Houston goes QB instead of BPA the draft breaks in an interesting way to the Vikings' benefit.

The Texans traded away Schaub. They take Bridgewater, like everyone said all season long. Teddy's play all season vindicated that assessment. Combine and Pro Day aside, nothing since the season ended should have changed that opinion.

The Texans were close to the top a year before, their window isn't going to stay open forever and while it would be an amazing pairing to have Watt & Clowney, there is solid proof that winning with mediocre QB play in the NFL is hit and miss. Bridgewater is the only QB in this draft ready to step in and run a pro-set offense. Houston takes Teddy Bridgewater.

2 - The Rams at #2 will take Clowney and be forced to trade up to get their LT. Maybe to #8.. . . They take Clowney because they know that if they get the best defensive player on the board and one of the 3 LTs that is worth a top 10 pick, they will have had a very successful draft.

3 - Jacksonville might take a QB, but let's say they take BPA and need. Henne isn't terrible and if they totally bottom out they'll get a shot at a better QB next year so the Jaguars take Khalil Mack, though an argument can be made for Watkins or Robinson. But, Mack.

4 - Cleveland gets its choice of QBs - indications are they want Manziel. Good for them. Bad for the NFL marketing arm. Cleveland. Where quarterbacks go to die. Years from now we'll be watching a Whatever Happened To? episode and it'll be "Oh gosh, Johnny Manziel. I totally forgot about him. The poor guy landed in Cleveland, right? What a mess that was. How many coaches and coordinators did he end up having?"

After the Browns it gets interesting.

5 - Oakland is not a wild card. After botching and only barely recovering in free agency, they have no real choice here - BPA is their only option. Sammy Watkins or Robinson. They go LT, the more solid bet.

6 - F is for Falcons. They wanted Clowney but the Rams weren't going to pass up that gift from the Redskins for lesser players. They wanted Robinson, and he's gone. Same deal here as for Oakland - Watkins or an LT. They could try to trade down but the Rams don't need to trade this high - there are 2 LTs out there, Matthews and Lewan. And while it is possible that the Falcons take Watkins, that isn't what they need to win. They have receivers - Julio Jones will come back, their receiving corp will be fine. They take one of the LTs, probably Matthews, but it could just as easily be Lewan.

There is also a possibility that the Falcons trade down, but they won't come anywhere close to a stud LT if they trade down. They hold onto their pick.

7 - Tampa Bay in the Lovie Smith era needs an identity. And it can't be a reach on defense because the studs are taken, and it for sure cannot be a reach for a QB. They signed McCown, they have Glennon, they have Vincent Jackson - they take Sammy Watkins and have no complaints how the draft broke. And Lovie Smith ends up with Tampa Bay on the flip-side of the Tony Dungy era - all offense and a "hang on, boys" defense.

8 - Purple on the clock. If they love Bortles, he's available. However, two of the 3 top LTs are gone with no chance whoever is left whether it is Lewan or Matthews sees 13 where the Rams sit, or even #10 with the Bills licking their chops at #9. The Vikings are in the catbird seat with 2 teams that want an LT and only 1 left on the board. With several QBs out there, none of them sure things, the Vikings hold off on committing to a QB in the top 10 - Cassel is their insurance policy for competent play this season, with the rookie holding the clipboard.

Normally you would have to give up less to move up from 9 to 8 than you would from 13 to 8, but in this case the Vikes are able to squeeze a pair of teams that are in need of the same BPA at the same position. The Purple trade down.


And that's how Spielman gets his 10 picks. Based on other deals calculated against the trade-value chart (without doing any figuring here; working from memory from other posts in this site) it looks like the Vikes give up 8 and 96 or 104 for 4 picks - a 1st, 2nd, 4th, and something later. Or something like that.

At 9 the Vikes could try to trade down again - maybe there'll be a market for Evans, or for Bortles, though that seems less likely. If nothing substantial is offered for #9 they can still cash in on QBOTF or BPA on D. At 13 or later they take the best defensive player on the board - Barr or Gilbert or Dennard or whoever the scouting tells you looks like the best fit for the defense the Purple are going to bring. If D early then in the 2nd you grab a pure prospect QB and an upgrade at OG somewhere along the way.

Most of the draft go heavy on the defensive side - 8 picks on that side, at least a couple at every level of the defense and trust your scouting to find a few studs.

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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