As we get closer to Thursday's NFL Draft. . .this Thursday, not two Thursdays from now or anything like that (unless Roger Goodell gets any more bright ideas). . .the mock drafts are going to be coming faster and more furiously. Our friends at the SB Nation mothership are no exception, as their latest mock draft has hit the interwebs, and it shows the Minnesota Vikings making a couple of pretty significant moves.
When you first scroll through the mock to Minnesota's spot at #8, rather than seeing "Minnesota Vikings," you see the words "San Francisco 49ers." The Niners would seem to be an unlikely draft-day trade partner for the Vikings, because. . .well, they're waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay down the board in the first round. Number 30, to be precise. Such a deal would require the Niners to give up a whole lot to move up. But we'll get to that in a moment. The Niners move to that spot to draft LSU wide receiver Odell Beckham, but that's not that important to us.
Virtual Rick Spielman wasn't done with the deals in this particular first round, as he moves the Vikings from the #30 pick he traded for in the deal with the Niners in order to move up to the Miami Dolphins' spot at #19. That trade allowed them to select quarterback Blake Bortles as the second quarterback off the board (the Jacksonville Jaguars snag Johnny Manziel at #6 after a trade with the Atlanta Falcons).
So, let's examine what the Vikings would wind up with from this trading down and back up. Well, as it stands now, the Vikings have the following picks:
#96 (from Seattle)
According to ye olde draft pick value chart, the #8 overall pick is worth 1,400 "points." The #30 pick is worth 620 points. That means that, in order to make the jump from #30 to #8, the Niners would have to make up 780 points if we go by this chart. (Yes, I know it's guidance and not gospel, but it's what we have to work with.) The Niners have a boatload of picks, and their next pick would come at #56 in Round 2. That's worth 340 "points," leaving a 440 point deficit. They also have another second-round pick at #61 overall, which is worth 292 points. The Niners could offer up their first-round pick in 2015 as well if they wouldn't want to part with both of their second rounders, and they might even have to throw in a little more.
But let's say, for the sake of argument, they do give up both of those second rounders. That would leave the Vikings with the following:
#30, #40, #56, #61, #72, #96, #108, #148, #184, #223
Five of the first 72 picks would be nice for Rick Spielman to have, because it gives him more ammunition to work with. So, what would he be able to do at that point to move back up?
Well, the amount of capital needed to move from #30 to #19 (where the Dolphins are) isn't nearly as great. The 19th pick is worth 875 points, while #30 is worth 620. That's a mere 255 point deficit to make up, which could be almost completely bridged by giving up the #72 overall pick (235 points) and the Vikings' sixth-rounder at #184 overall.
If that turned out to be the case, the Vikings would end up with the following:
#19 (Blake Bortles), #40, #56, #61, #96, #108, #148, #223
What do you think of all these scenarios, folks?