FanPost

MN_Norseman Breaks Down the Vikings 2014 Schedule

Hello there, so it seems I have a lot of free time at work this week, I think I will put it to good use breaking down the Vikings 2014 schedule, a little fantasy, and adding my two cents on each game.

Let's get started!

DISCLAIMER: I have an odd sense of humor, so take this with a grain of salt, please. I'm just bored and having fun expressing my personal thoughts about the Vikings upcoming season.

Week 1 - @ Rams

In my book, this should be a win for the Vikings. With Shaun Hill at QB, their passing attack is diminished and the Vikings are looking very good against the run this year. Those of you drafting RB Zac Stacy in your fantasy leagues, I don't recommend playing him Week 1.

I'm forseeing lots of blitzes in our future...The Rams offensive line was god awful last year allowing 53 sacks over the course of the 2013 season. For you non-math wiz types - that's 3.3 sacks/game. CORRECTION: I was looking at the wrong sack stat on NFL.com - They only allowed 36 sacks last year.

On the other side of the ball, week 1 will be our first chance to see our brand new offense go up against, what many people consider, a top 5 defense. For that, I am VERY excited. Forget this preseason nonsense, let's see how we hold up drive for drive against the Rams. It should give us a great idea of where we are at in the league offensively. The defense of the Rams has their main strength in their pass rush, so it's up to our offensive line to keep us on the field in this one.

Prediction - Vikings Win (1-0) - It may end up being a struggle to move the ball at times, but I believe in the end our defense will carry us through. (crazy thought, I know, I know.)

Chance of Vikings Victory: 75%

  • RESULTS: SKOL! Vikings Win! (1-0) Turns out my stat analysis was a bit misguided, but somehow my conclusions were correct anyway. (I'll take it.) AP had a less-amazing day than he is used to, and the offense sputtered and died a couple times. BUT - my prediction was that the defense would carry us through and they did exactly that.
  • 5 Sacks, 8 QB hits, 2 INT, and 1 TD - That, ladies and gentleman is exactly what our stat-line SHOULD look like when facing 2nd or 3rd string QB's.

------------------------------------------------------------

Week 2 - Home vs Patriots

Phew, here we go. This marks the beginning of the toughest portion of our schedule but there is a silver lining!

Week 2 is still early enough that even teams and quarterbacks as prolific as Tom Brady with the Patriots might still have growing pains. Are you ready to be encouraged? Both Geno Smith and Josh Freeman actually out yardaged (it's a word, I swear...ok, probably not) Tom Brady in weeks 2 & 3 in the 2013 season. Tom Brady actually went 19/39 (48.7%) for only 185 yards and a single touchdown week 2. That's not to say it was entirely Tom Brady's fault, it wasn't, the receivers were dropping balls left and right, also it was raining. But it does show that even the top QB's have to rely on receivers to make plays - receivers learning new systems, such as Brandon LaFell and Brian Tyms - who may not be the top receivers for NE, but will almost definitely see the field. We can only hope they are not completely comfortable with the new system yet.

The scariest part - The Gronk is back. Are we going to have to see Greenway covering the likes of Rob Gronkowski? Because that isn't a matchup I'm confident in, actually you can include almost any linebacker we have in that situation and I'll take Gronkowski every time.

Not only that, but with the recent addition of Darrelle Revis in their secondary, some might say they've stiffened their pass defense. (Others might disagree)

The Silver Lining I mentioned earlier? The Patriots allowed an average of 134 rush yards/game in 2013 which was 30th overall. This would be a fantastic opportunity for NORV! to show off how well he can control a game clock. I'm thinking AP, and probably CP, are going to be called upon early and often. Another upside, we get home field advantage, hopefully it will help!

There are two ways this game could go:

1 - Zimmer brings the pain. Our pass rush is successful and Brady is feeling the pressure. AP takes the game over and leads the Vikings to victory.

or

2 - Brady has been well prepared for the blitz, gets the ball out quickly and efficiently. The Vikings are outmatched in the secondary, Gronk goes nuts, and Although the Vikings have a good day on the field. The Patriots offense is just too much.

Prediction - Vikings Loss (1-1) - Since as a team the Patriots allowed just 3 sacks in the first 3 weeks of Preseason, I'm going with option 2. I definitely think the Vikings have the potential to win this game, but I would consider it an upset.

Chance of Vikings Victory: 25%

  • RESULTS: Vikings Lose. (1-1) - Yup, they are who we thought they were.
  • Really nothing positive to say about this game. Their running game ran right through us giving Brady the balance he needs to pick apart a defense.
  • ------------------------------------------------------------

    Week 3 - @ Saints

    Ugh...really? We have to do this again? BS ensues. Shut up, just shut up, Saints fans. You know what the worst part is? The official Vikings bar here in NYC (Bar None) is also somehow an official Saints bar...AND I tried to go there to watch the 4th preseason game and was told they were only showing the Saints game...what gives?

    Our best bet - the Pass rush. The Saints finished 29th in the league for sacks allowed last season at 49. Unfortunately, it seems like most of the time Drew Brees only needs about 2-3 playes to score on you...so, there's that.

    Prediction - Vikings Loss (1-2) - (...what's that I hear...there's a faint song beating in the hearts of the Viking underground...bu-buh, bu-buh)

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 35%

  • RESULTS: Vikings Lose. (1-2) - Sucks to be right all the time... Well, I was wrong about one thing, Teddy made his appearance much earlier than expected. And while he wasn't perfect, he played with poise and confidence, something I haven't seen in MN since #4 was at the helm in 2009.
  • We fought back from a 14-0 deficit and for a little while it looked like TB might pull out an upset a la Week 3 preseason. But alas, no deal. But, clearly these losses were to be expected.
  • ------------------------------------------------------------

    Week 4 - Home vs Falcons

    Alright! This game is totally win-able.

    Not only are we back home, woo! Believe it or not, the Falcons were even worse than the Patriots vs the Rush allowing 135 yards/game - that's 31st in the NFL in 2013. (The only team that was worse? :D We'll get there, don't worry.) On top of that, the Falcon's D landed at 29th for Passing TD's allowed. After being battle tested against the Rams, Pats, and Saints? This should be a breeze for our now razor sharp offense.

    Defense? Not so much - with the likes of Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Harry Douglas - Matt Ryan is going to have plenty of targets. Once again it's going to come down to the pass rush. (broken record? yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, y- sorry.) MAN, AM I GLAD Zimmer invested heavily in pass rush because that s#*t is gonna come up KEY this season. It's almost as if he's been an extremely successful D-Coordinator for years.

    Prediction - Vikings Win (2-2) - have the Falcons improved from last year? Yes. Have the Vikings improved more? Hell yes.

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 60%

  • RESULTS: SKOL! VIKINGS WIN!. (2-2) - Here we are, 25% of the way through the season and so far I've been 100% right. :D
  • "And while he wasn't perfect, he played with poise and confidence, something I haven't seen in MN since #4 was at the helm in 2009." is what I said about Teddy Bridgewater after last week's performance. This week, it gets even better. TB and the Vikings offense put on a performance that was stat-wise easily comparable to the 2009 season.
  • One of my key points was that the Falcons run defense gives up an average of 135 rush yards per game. And they gave up that much - to Jerrick McKinnon alone. Asiata also had a fairly solid game, but McKinnon looked like a whole different player from what we saw last week shredding the ATL defense.
  • This was a shoot-out in every sense of the word - however if you take away the two AWFUL mistakes made by the Vikings secondary, it starts to look more like a blow out. Once ZimZam slams those CB's around in practice, I expect those issues will be resolved.
  • ------------------------------------------------------------

    Week 5 - @ Packers

    Omg, I think I can see light at the end of the tunnel. Oh wait, it's just a freight train comin' our way - and his name is Aaron Rodgers.

    Owch, facing (a presumably healthy) Rodgers in Lambeau is never a good thing. Here's hoping NORV! throws them for a loop and ZIMZAM flams Rodgers all over the turf.

    Even though I know this is a stupid thing to do.

    Prediction - VIKINGS WIN BAHAHA! EAT ZIMORV! NORMMER! ZIMFLAMMERZAMMER! FACE! (3-2) - What. You think I'm actually gonna give GB a win? You clearly don't know me very well.

    fine. FINE! reality kicks in... Vikings Lose (2-3) - (I hear that beat getting stronger and stronger - almost as if...are those words?)

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 40%

  • RESULTS: Vikings Lose. (2-3) - Yup. yup. That happened.
  • Christian Ponder.
  • ------------------------------------------------------------

    Week 6 - Home vs Lions

    Well, well, we meet again. It's the Lions. Do I really need to say more? Reggie Bush is probably going to have a field day running screens. But let's be honest, it's week 6 and Matthew Stafford is most likely already suffering from some sort of ailment.

    Assuming he's healthy this Lions team has potential. With the addition of Golden Tate to compliment Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew, they have a pretty decent 1-2-3 punch in the passing game. However, Xavier Rhodes has a knack for shutting down Calvin Johnson, so you never know.

    The biggest question for me? How does our offense stack up. And - I believe - this will be the game that Matt Cassel either lives or dies on. In front of a home crowd, versus a division opponent...if we are heading towards 2-4 that faint beat I heard earlier is going to turn into a VERY audible chant... ted-dy, ted-dy, Ted-dy, Ted-dy TED-DY TEDDY! TEDDY! TEDDY!

    On the other hand, if Matt Cassel goes Toe to Toe with Stafford and kills the Lions, or even gives the fans a decent game, he will probably cement his spot as a starter for the rest of the season. (unless the season takes a complete tank or barring injury)

    It's the Lions at home, I gotta be optimistic. I'm gonna say Cassel has a great game. Everything goes well and this game marks the beginning of a great mid-season run.

    Prediction - Vikings Win (3-3) - C'mon, it's the Lions. >.>

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 100%

    ------------------------------------------------------------

    Week 7 - @ Bills

    The Bills... well, they got that guy Sammy Watkins and those other guys CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. But alas, the QB situation doesn't look good. (And when you find yourself signing kickers off the waiver-wire the week before the season starts because "We’re trying to make sure that we have a guy as a kickoff guy" - your fans, heck everyone, might be *face-palming* a little bit.)

    This leads me to believe they are going to spend a good chunk of time attempting to run the ball. And if there's anything I'm pretty confident our defense can handle? it's the run. Once again, (forever-ever, ever-ever?) Vikings pass rush will be key! A couple of sacks should rattle EJ Manuel up nicely.

    Prediction - Vikings Win (4-3) - Mario Williams and Brandon Spikes might give Cassel and AP a couple of fits, but I'm sure NORV! will adjust and the Vikings offense will pull through.

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 65%

    ------------------------------------------------------------

    Week 8 - @ Buccaneers

    Hey, I know that guy over there! That's Leslie Frazier! I know that other guy too! It's Lovie Smith! And I vaguely recall this guy named Josh McCown too... NFC NORTH REUNION TIME!

    But there's a party crasher here by the name of Jeff Tedford - who? exactly. He's the new Tampa Bay OC and it's his first year as an NFL coach in any capacity. Previously he coached college ball with Cal where he was considered a QB whisperer coaching the likes of Trent Dilfer, David Carr, Kyle Boller, and Aaron Rodgers.

    Because of this wildcard it's hard to say what's gonna happen with TB this year. Does McCown have potential? Yes, I believe he does. He arguably outperformed Cutler on the Bears when he stepped in last year. And he went 20/27 this preseason landing him with a very respectable 74% completion rate, although he only averaged 6.6 yards/pass.

    By far the most worrisome players on Tampa's offense are Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson. Martin is a deceptively fast, elusive RB who is no stranger to contact. Frankly, he scares me. And Jackson...well, he's just awesome. On top of those two Vets there is rookie WR Mike Evans. I could see the Buccs going back and forth between stretching the field against the Vikes and tossing RB dump-offs and screens. It's going to come down to our secondary and our LB core in this one...unfortunately.

    Prediction - Vikings Loss (4-4) - Despite having McCown as QB, I think the combination of talent on offense, solid defensive play, and adding in home field advantage is going to give TB the W on this one. Or is it?

    PREDICTION REVERSAL! VIKINGS WIN (5-3) - In the last two minutes of the game our crazy amazing and WAY MORE TALENTED offense dominates the TB defense who, for some reason, have started playing Prevent while the Vikings march 80 yards down the field for a game winning TD. In all seriousness, I doubt that the TB defense can handle the sheer number of weapons and mismatches we are able to create. Mark this as a win for the Vikes!

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 50%

    ------------------------------------------------------------

    Week 9 - Home vs The Nameless Ones.

    After 2 weeks on the road we are finally back in MN! And it's starting to get chilly out there.

    Alright, alright, alright.

    Redskins - yeesh - these guys are always a tough call. They always look decent on paper, I mean they picked up DeSean Jackson on top of that they have Pierre Garcon and Santana Moss as well...all in all a WR core anyone could be proud of. And with Alfred Morris in the backfield this offense poses a huge complicated hornet's nest of possibilities.

    But of the last 5 seasons only one had a winning record and that was RG3's rookie season. They made the playoffs but lost in the first round to the Seahawks. TBH Griffen has not looked like the same QB since. His run game has been hampered significantly and without it he becomes one dimensional and fairly predictable.

    - From 2012 to 2013 his completion % dropped from 65.6% to 60.1%.

    - He passed for almost exactly the same number of yards (3200) but it took him an extra 60+ passes to do so.

    - His TD:INT ratio went from 4:1 to 4:3 and

    - His rushing TD's plummeted from 7 to 0 (owch)

    Still, with Jay Gruden at the helm, and all the targets mentioned above? They're in decent shape. All RG3 needs to do is get the ball into the hands of his stacked offense a few times and they will do the rest.

    Let's look at Defense. They who shall not be named's defense ranked 30th in points allowed last season. (2 spots above the Vikings) That's pretty bad. So what changes did they make in the off-season? Signed a veteran safety Ryan Clark and a slew of LB's and DE's to pick and choose from - but all in all? Nothing of note that I'm aware of.

    Where-as the Vikings have made vast defensive improvements in the off season.

    IMO - Get excited for this game. This could end up being a massive shootout.

    Prediction - Vikings Win (6-3) - It's almost a coin flip, but I believe the Vikings have a slight edge for two reasons - Our new coaching staff and home field advantage. I think Zimmer is going to put the Fear of God in RG3 while NORV! and the Vikings (at the very least) will be able to go toe to toe with the Redskins Offense.

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 55%

    ------------------------------------------------------------

    Week 10 - BYE

    You'd think there wouldn't be much to say here. But you would be wrong.

    Over the last several years I have learned to dread the Vikings Bye-Week. Because I have to go a whole week without Vikings football? Yes, and it's agony.

    But I learned to dread this week for an entirely different reason as well. Every other team in the NFL seems to take their bye-week to recuperate, re-strategize, and prepare themselves for the remainder of the season.

    Every team except the Vikings, who seem to come back sluggish and unprepared.

    But not this year. This year I'm hoping Zimmer puts his foot down and demands that his players stay focused and ready to go. Because YOU DON"T FLIMFLAM THE ZIMZAM!

    Prediction - A healthy Vikings Team that is ready to rock'n'roll the second half of the season.

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 100%

    ------------------------------------------------------------

    Week 11 - @ Da Bears

    Like Stafford, Cutler is most definitely prone to injury, by the time week 11 comes around? Anything could happen.

    But let's assume he's healthy as a horse, shall we?

    Oofta - Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte - the Bears are a friggin Fantasy Free-for-all.

    But remember way back in Week 4 against the Falcons, where I mentioned there was one team even worse against the Rush?

    Ladies and Gentlemen - landing dead last in yards allowed vs the run in 2013 - DA BEARS. (and it's not a close competition.) The rush yards allowed per game stat moves pretty gradually from 84 (ARI) to 135 (ATL) - and then there's the Bears, dead last with a whopping 161 yds/game! Here's a nifty little graph I made, because I feel this deserves a visual representation.

    Untitledcopy_medium

    The Orange line represents an extrapolated rank based off the general curve of the stat. I mean really, they were so bad I had to include imaginary ranks just to accurately describe it. They finished 43rd.

    So, now we know the Bears struggle against the run, and we ALL know we have the BEST running back in the NFL.

    And wow does he like to remind the Bears of that.

    Here's the thing, the Bears haven't done that much to address defending the run. A lot of people around here would actually consider the addition of Jared Allen to be a step in the opposite direction. The guy is great for pass rush...but stopping the run isn't exactly his Forte. Heh heh. See what I did there?

    Prediction - Vikings Win (7-3) - Call me overly optimistic - that's totally valid - but I'm hoping coming off a Bye helps the Vikings win this game. With our players well rested and and extra week of game planning? I think winning this game is well within the realm of possibilities.

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 50%


    ------------------------------------------------------------

    Week 12 - Home vs Packers

    Well, well, once more into the breach. Except this time, we're at home. Actually the next two games are at home, as well. This is a great opportunity for the Vikings to make their playoff push. Let's see if it happens.

    If we were in the Dome I'd predict Vikings win with no hesitation. But we are outdoors, the Packer's are completely used to this. And if they are having a good season, who knows how many Packer fans will show up?

    Home Field Advantage? not so much, unfortunately.

    At this point I'm putting my faith solidly in the hands of our coaching staff. I believe NORV! and Zimmer will learn from the first game in Lambeau and put together a game plan that blows GB out of the water.

    Prediction - Vikings Win (8-3) - We aren't gonna shut down Aaron Rodgers, let's face it. But that Packers defense has a lot of holes. And we're gonna find them sooner or later.

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 60%


    ------------------------------------------------------------

    Week 13 - Home vs The Panthers

    It's late November in Minnesota now, and if our nice cold weather helps us at all this year - it's gonna happen against the Panthers. Coming from N Carolina where it's probably a good 30 degrees warmer in November, and the average low each year is right around freezing temp. Hopefully the Panthers feel the chill of sub-freezing temperatures in their bones.

    So we have that going for us, as well as a solid home crowd. Which is good because the Vikings are gonna need all the help they can get against a very good team.

    I'm not gonna lie folks, this one is gonna be tough. The Panther's defense is no joke. And while their offense may not be clicking 100% in the pre-season - you can bet by week 13 they will have it together.

    The Panthers Defense finished last season 2nd overall in both Yards/Game Allowed and Total Points Allowed.

    Are we dynamic enough to break through one of the toughest defenses in the NFL? I'd like to think so, but in all likelihood they will keep us from moving the ball effectively for most of the game.

    After losing Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell, they drafted Kelvin Benjamin and picked up vet Jerricho Cotchery as replacements. As far as this year is concerned I'd say they broke even on talent, for less money, and a much better future. Benjamin has looked pretty impressive so far and once he and Newton are on the same page they will be a pretty scary matchup for any defense to worry about.

    I could see the Vikings D doing a pretty decent job of keeping the Panthers offense from running amuck. But with a QB as mobile as Cam Newton it's hard to keep him contained.

    Prediction - Vikings Loss (8-4) - despite putting up a valiant effort, I think the Panthers have a pretty good shot at coming out on top in this one.

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 40%


    ------------------------------------------------------------


    Week 14 - Home vs The Jets
    Geno Smith or Michael Vick? Which QB will we face? I don't know, nobody knows.
    Prediction - Vikings Win (9-4) - What? >.>

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 70%

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    Ok fine. Yes, they have the Chris's in the backfield adding Chris Johnson to Chris Ivory makes it a lethal combination rush attack. True.

    I don't care, I made my decision and it's final.

    Prediction - Vikings Win (9-4)

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 70%

    ------------------------------------------------------------

    Week 15 - @ Lions

    Here we are, late in the NFL season watching the Lions crumble yet again.

    The Vikings see a chance to secure a playoff spot vs a division opponent. Zimmer will accept nothing less than success in this game.

    Prediction - Vikings Win (10-4) - The Vikings are gonna head up to Detroit and put the nail in the coffin.

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 65%

    ------------------------------------------------------------


    Week 16 - @ Dolphins
    What? We get to go to Florida? In the middle of December? I know I'd be excited.
    The Dolphins are a half decent team. But their schedule is pretty brutal this year. (I mean c'mon they have to face the NFC North, amirite?) And we are the last of the North teams to face them. By this point in the year it's quite possible we will be facing a Dolphins team that is broken and demoralized.
    NE x2, KC, GB, CHI, SD, DET, DEN, BAL, BUFx2 - and then MN - owch.
    I know Knowshon (hehe) Moreno did well last year, but that was with the complimentary passing attack of Peyton Manning that opens up defenses as much as you're ever gonna get in this league. Can Ryan Tannehill do the same thing with Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace? No, no they cannot.
    Prediction - Vikings Win (11-4) - At this point the Dolphins have very little reason to play and the Vikes are moving with a head of steam.

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 75%

    ------------------------------------------------------------


    Week 17 - Home vs Da Bears (the rematch)
    Back in TCF stadium against the Bears. I'm just glad Corey Wootton is on our team this time around. I'm gonna be at this game!!! Very excited!!!
    I'm just hoping for a great game. And to avoid injuries as we head into the playoffs.
    Prediction - Vikings Loss (11-5) - Mostly because I feel we are gonna go 1-1 with the Bears and I already gave us a win Week 11. But who cares? We're in the playoffs! Woohoo!

    Chance of Vikings Victory: 50%

    ------------------------------------------------------------

    Synopsis:
    @STL - W
    NE - L
    @NO - L
    ATL - W
    @GB - L
    DET - W
    @BUF - W
    @TB - W
    WAS - W
    BYE
    @CHI - W
    GB - W
    CAR - L
    NYJ - W
    @DET - W
    @MIA - W
    CHI - L


    So there it is. An incredibly optimistic 11-5 season for the Vikings in 2014.
    I'd say that's about as good as it could possibly get for us.
    My pessimistic version? about 5-11
    Realistic? let's just split the difference and go 8-8...but that's boring.

    11-5! WOOOOOOOO! GO VIKES!

    This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.