FanPost

The Decline of the Packers


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Thursday's opening game between the Seahawks and Packers was only one game in a 256 game regular season. The Packers were playing on the road in the most unfriendly place for an opposing team to win these days. And they played against the reigning Super Bowl champions, who did not lose much in the off-season, as can often happen. So there are excuses. But the Packers looked bad. Fundamentally bad. They couldn't block (-5.3 on pass blocking, -2.5 run blocking) or tackle (-13.4 run defense, -5.1 pass rush) judging from their PFF stats.

I've long since taken the Packers off my list of serious Super Bowl contenders, as their defense makes them far from a complete team, but the Packers may well be on their way out as a perennial playoff team too- if that is possible with arguably the best quarterback in a quarterback-driven league.

It hasn't happened overnight. But let's take a look at how the Viking's top rival has "become just another fart in the wind" to quote former Packer GM Ron Wolf, since winning the Super Bowl in 2010.

Training Camp Injuries

Perhaps no other team in the last several years has been hit harder with injuries- and major injuries- in training camp than the Green Bay Packers. Every year. Despite new programs meant to curb camp injuries, the Packers continue to suffer major injuries in training camp every year. This year was no exception. It's not just bad luck. Bob McGinn, who has covered the Packers for the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel for many years, outlined in August 2013 the Packers injury woes- and perhaps the need to practice more tackling to avoid injuries. From the Packers opening performance this year, and once again the plague of injuries they suffered this year in training camp, that advice has clearly gone unheeded.

Top Draft Pick Busts

Ted Thompson, the Packers current GM and genius to the Packer faithful, has been anything but the last few years.

The Packers top 2010 draft pick, Brian Bulaga, started badly (-17.5 overall PFF for 2010) before rebounding in 2011 (+19.0), but then was lost to injury mid-way through a mediocre 2012 campaign, then injured again for the entire 2013 season, and suffered an injury again last night to the same knee he tore an ACL in training camp last year. Obviously Bulaga will have major durability concerns for the foreseeable future, whatever that holds for him.

2nd round pick that year Mike Neal has been a disappointment, with last year being his worst.

Of the ten draft picks the Packers made in 2011, only 2nd round pick Randall Cobb has proven a success. First round pick Derek Sherrod (now a 3rd string OT) was a bust. The rest of the picks are either no longer with the team or never had much of an impact.

Of the 2012 picks, 1st round pick Nick Perry started out missing most of his first year to injury, and has been average since- not what you want out of a 1st round pick. 2nd round pick Jerel Worthy, recently cut, was a bust. The next two picks, Casey Hayward and Mike Daniels have been good so far, but Hayward also missed most of last year to injury, and the rest have been non-factors.

It's too early to judge the 2013 draft, but once again the Packers first-round pick, Datone Jones (-7.7 overall last year) hasn't wowed anyone so far. 2nd round pick Eddie Lacy was offensive rookie of the year, despite averaging only 4.0 YPC. He has also suffered his 3rd concussion since entering the league last year, which should be a concern going forward.

Overall, Ted Thompson has spent six 1st or 2nd round picks on offensive or defensive lineman over the past four years (not including 2014), and all of them have either been busts, or have failed to have a significant impact. As a result, both offensive and defensive line (along with interior LBs) remain a significant weakness for the Packers.

Not Physical Enough

Bob McGinn also somewhat famously lambasted the Packers as too soft following the 2011 season, which he repeated again after the 2012-13 season and again after last year. Packers head coach Mike McCarthy has always blown off that criticism, but it is well founded- and isn't going away after getting whacked around by Seattle to start the year.

One of the more obvious examples of the Packers lack of physicality is their ability to stop the run. The last four years under Dom Capers, the Packers have ranked 28th, 26th, 26th, and 29th in the league in yards per rushing attempt allowed. Given their opening performance this year, and the fact that they have Letroy Guion, Brad Jones and AJ Hawk occupying the (very soft) middle of their defense this year- more trouble lies ahead.

It's interesting that one of the best defensive coordinators over the past several years- Mike Zimmer- has always preached being a tough, physical team, with first priority of stopping the run on defense.

The other example is the offensive line, which routinely fails to win the battle in the trenches. Last night was an example. I could tell the Packers were going to lose that game mid-way through the 2nd quarter, the way they were getting pushed around at the line of scrimmage. While it's true that both TJ Lang and Josh Sitton have been stalwarts for the Packers at either guard position, both tackles and now center have been weak spots in the Packers offensive line, particularly in run-blocking. But it also can't come as much of a surprise to see Aaron Rodgers get injured last year, given the number of sacks and pressure the Packers offensive line has given up over the past few years.

Dom Capers Defensive Scheme Doesn't Fit

The essence of Dom Capers' defensive scheme is a 3-4 alignment with zone blitzes designed primarily to stop the short, quick passing of a West Coast offense. Trouble is, the Packers increasingly don't have the right players for the scheme, and more teams are moving away from the West Coast principles the defense was designed to stop- particularly when they play the Packers.

First, for any 3-4 alignment to be successful, a good NT is essential. The Packers don't have one. Raji was getting worse every year before getting injured for the year, and Letroy Guion, um, was never good. Secondly, you need a dynamic linebacker corps. Dynamic in the sense of both being able to cover, and to zone-blitz effectively. While Clay Matthews fits the bill, the rest of the Packer linebackers leave much to be desired- both as blitzers and in coverage.

Secondly, more teams are game-planning to run the ball against the Packers (don't expect that to change anytime soon) in part because they don't defend the run well, and in part because the scheme isn't design with that as a priority. Seattle did it last night, the 49ers (both RB and QB), and NFC North opponents are increasingly more likely to run through or throw over the Packers front seven.

Receiver Talent Eroding

Over the past few years, the receiver talent on the Packers has been in decline. It hasn't been dramatic, but it is noticeable, and this year may bring another decline. First, Jordy Nelson, good as he is, is also getting older, and less of a threat to take the lid off of a defense. Randall Cobb seems to have the talent, but has also been injured, and has yet to really be a consistently big threat. Tight End talent has been in decline. As Jermichael Finley proved first inconsistent and is now presumably done, there really hasn't been anyone of equal or better caliber to replace him. James Jones was in decline before getting let go, and Greg Jennings of course was lost to the Vikings. Jarrett Boykin has yet to distinguish himself. The West Coast offense that Green Bay has run for years under Aaron Rodgers is designed to better utilize more pedestrian receiver talent, but as the talent level erodes, it puts greater pressure on the QB, and timing and rhythm, to be effective.

Overall

It's hard to count a team with Aaron Rodgers at QB as a non-contender. But increasingly he seems to be falling victim to the flaws and inadequacies across the entirety of the Packers team. It may be that as those flaws and inadequacies have grown, the Packers may grow to resemble the Lions or Bears of recent years- still good offense, but poor defense- but overall not good enough to make the playoffs.

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.