FanPost

What DO the Numbers Say About Rodgers, Packers and Referees

Rodgers Complaining

After the Atlanta Falcons punched their ticket to Super Bowl LI by beating the Green Bay Packers, in an interview with USA Today, Atlanta Falcons Defensive Tackle Grady Jarrett made headlines when he claimed that the Packers get away "with a lot of stuff as far as holding calls and everything. So, when the thing isn’t going his way, when the game’s played fairly, it tends to be a problem."

Fans all across the NFC North collectively rolled their eyes. No $&!%, Sherlock. We've all seen it. We've been bitten by that snake too many times not to recognize the rattle.

We all watched as Aaron Rodgers benefited from the phantom facemask call against Detroit last December, allowing another "Rodgers Miracle". We watched Dez Bryant make a sensational catch, turn and leap to the end zone against the boys from Acme - only to have the refs decide that it wasn't enough of a catch to be a catch. Micah Hyde mauls Golden Tate for the interception, with no flag thrown. Tre Waynes and Terrance Newman get flagged repeatedly, and only an interception from Waynes saves the Vikings from defeat at the hands of Rodgers and his personal Twelfth Man, referee Walt Anderson. Again and again, like a tired WWE gag, the refs seem to be watching like hawks when the "good guys" are making close plays, and have their heads turned when the men in Green and Gold grab the folding chair. Packer fans will cry foul to this theory. They'll point to the Packers/Seahawks "Fail Mary" game back in 2012 and tell us that "it happens to all of us", and claim that complaining about it is just sour grapes.

Well, is it just sour grapes?

First, there's this article, from the good folks at Pride of Detroit, which contends that Packers players seem to "get away with" holding, as Jarrett contends. But what do the statistics tell us? Well, thanks to this awesome website, we can check the facts. Upon first look, however everything seems to be on the up-and-up. All four NFC North teams seem to be relatively close to the middle in terms of total penalties. Relatively straightforward, nothing-to-see-here stuff. In fact, it would almost be easy to argue that the Packers are not, in fact, helped by the officiating, rather they are hurt by it.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look.

For this example, I used three teams: The Pack, the Miami Dolphins, and the New York Giants. I used Miami because both the Dolphins and the Packers finished the season with an identical 10-6 record. I used the Giants because their record was similar, at 11-5, and they had many common opponents. All three teams started off slow, then benefited from a mid season surge. Ryan Tannehill took the majority of the Dolphins snaps at quarterback, while Eli Manning ran the Giants offense. Tannehill, of course, is still a fairly raw quarterback at this point in his career, and Manning - while certainly not in the same class as Aaron Rodgers - has been, statistically, fairly consistent.

Green Bay Packers offensive and defensive penalties by game

Packers Penalties By Game

Miami Dolphins offensive and defensive penalties per game

Dolphins Penalties per game

New York Giants offensive and defensive penalties per game

Giants penalties per game

Everything looks to be fairly similar here. None of the teams have glaring penalty issues, and the penalties didn't seem to affect whether they won or lost. But did you ever have that feeling that what you see is not necessarily telling the whole story, though?

Belushi

It's like Teddy Roosevelt said, right after the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics." In the NFL, of course, not all penalties are created equal, and - as we'll see - not all teams benefit from these penalties the same way.

If an offense is having difficulty moving the ball, a well-timed automatic first down penalty can make the difference between a stalled drive and points on the board. There are six defensive penalties which, when called, can grant the offense an automatic, drive-extending first down. And in some cases the penalty can also get the Super-Size treatment which comes with large chunks of yardage, as well. These penalties are:

  • Defensive Holding
  • Defensive Pass Interference
  • Illegal Contact
  • Illegal Use of Hands
  • Roughing the Passer
  • Unnecessary Roughness (15 yard penalty, which usually results in a first down)

And these penalties (along with the uncalled holding penalties that our friends at Pride of Detroit point out) are the ones that make opposing teams' fans furious when their team is playing against Green Bay.

So, what do the charts say?

Well, the evidence against Green Bay is pretty damning. Using the same three teams, I compared the number of these penalties that were called in 2016. I also broke down the calls by down. Consider one fact when comparing these numbers: League wide - without exception - more plays are run on first down than second, more plays are run on second down than third, and more plays are run on third down than fourth. Logically, the number of calls on each down should follow the same sort of curve - barring some sort of statistical fluke.

DHold

DPI

Illegal Contact

Ill Use of Hands

Roughing Passer

Rouhgness

TotalAutoFirsts

Are you kidding me?

No. Not a bit. Fifty-one automatic first-down penalties. More than the other two teams combined. And the number of times that it happened on third or fourth down? That's simply ridiculous! Again, consider that there are more first downs than seconds, and so on. The fact that the Packers benefited from an automatic first-down penalty an astonishing nineteen times on third and fourth down is out of the realm of logic.

But I'm still not ready to believe that the ref's are skewing games towards the Packers simply because they love the Packers. Call me gullible if you will, but I still can't do it. From a talent standpoint, the 2016 Packers offense was certainly not what they were in years past. Sure, Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson are up there with the best QB/WR combiations in the league. And Randall Cobb is a dynamic, though inconsistent, player. And Davante Adams had a helluva year. But Jared Cook has never been confused for a top Tight End. And the Packers running game was pretty awful all year, outside of a couple games from RB convert Ty Montgomery. The only conclusion that passes the eye test is that Aaron Rodgers specifically has an ability to either goad the referees into making close calls favor the Packers or an ability to see contact happening, and throw the ball towards that contact, hoping for a call.

Rodgers Smirk

The Rodgers Effect

In order to try and make sense of the nonsensical numbers, I needed to take a look at the quarterback position. Obviously Eli Manning and Ryan Tannehill aren't even in the same conversation as Aaron Rodgers when it comes to playing the quarterback position. So I ran the numbers for Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. All are Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. All thrived during the "Quarterback Era". And all have undoubtedly punched their tickets to Canton. While I would put Rodgers ahead of Brees in the "QB smarts" category, I'm not ready to put him ahead of either Brady or Manning. And while Tom Brady can certainly throw the ball better than most NFL quarterbacks, I'm not ready to put him ahead of Rodgers, Brees or Manning in the arm department. Surely these three quarterbacks have enough grey matter between their ears to out-think opposing defenses and play to the referee's tendencies. Surely they can manipulate the rule book to their favor - all deflated balls jokes aside. For this, I tried to find a season for each QB since 2009 that was most similar to the 2016 version of the Packers and Aaron Rodgers (4428 YDS, 40 TD's, 7 INT, 10-6 record).

I looked at:

Tom Brady and the Patriots 2015 season (4770 YDS, 36 TD's, 7 INT, 12-4 record)

Drew Brees and the Saints 2013 season (5162 YDS, 39 TD's 12 INT, 11-5 record)

Peyton Manning and the Broncos 2012 season (4659 YDS, 37 TD's, 11 INT, 13-3 record)

Without going into total detail about the number of penalties each team had, I will simply skip to the stats that I care about at this point.

Total number of drive-extending, automatic first-down penalties, by down.

Brady Brees Manning

In this chart, the discrepancy between Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Manning is significant. All four quarterbacks were fairly similar in record, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions, yet there's Rodgers - again - far ahead of the others in automatic first down penalties. Brees did, however, have significantly fewer snaps during the '13 season than the other three quarterbacks had in their seasons, so I'm not entirely ready to say he wouldn't have been higher, given equal offensive plays.

A disturbing trend

Rodgers' 2016 season was no fluke. In fact, the numbers themselves show that he has either figured out how to manipulate the refs, or - as I'm sure most Vikings, Lions, or Bears fans would prefer to think - the refs are simply handing him the keys to the Cadillac. With the exception of 2012, his numbers are increasing year-to-year. This does not bode well for any opposing defenses.

Rodgers Totals

Maybe it's Rodgers ability to extend the play using his legs

Rodgers stands out far above the others in one category - the ability to scramble and keep a play alive. Logically, the longer the quarterback has the ball in his hands, the more time his receivers are downfield, and the more time there is for a penalty to occur. Brady, Brees, Tannehill and both of the Manning brothers have never been accused of being overly mobile. In fact, the Manning brothers may be two of the least mobile quarterbacks of the Super Bowl era.

OK, none of them can scramble. What about the ones who can?

What do the numbers say for more mobile or elusive quarterbacks, such as Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton? All have put up passing numbers similar to Rodgers' 2016 stats. All have made deep postseason runs. For this, I took these three players' best seasons and compared the numbers. Again, outside of 2014 Andrew Luck (who benefited from eleven Illegal use of hands calls - on first down!), the numbers just don't add up.

Luck Newton Wilson

All three quarterbacks are as mobile as Rodgers. All three have - by nearly any measure - put up excellent passing numbers. All three have played their way into at least a conference championship game. All three can at least be considered among the next wave of "elite" NFL quarterbacks. And yet, none comes close to Rodgers' record of extending drives through penalty.

So... what does all of this mean?

I believe that the evidence shows fairly clear cut bias in favor of the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. More Automatic First-Down penalties awarded on third and fourth down than any of the other future Hall of Fame quarterbacks had on first down? More than any of the other play-extending scrambling quarterbacks had in their best seasons? Neither can be logically explained away, in my opinion. Big-play offenses. Balanced offenses. Rodgers and the Packers out-draw all of them when it comes to this particular set of game-changing penalties.

But, I'm still (!) not ready to say the simple bias of the referees is causing this phenomenon. I don't think Roger Goodell has it in for the rest of the league and wants the Packers to win. What I am willing to say, however, is that the refs - perhaps due to Aaron Rodgers style of quarterbacking, Mike McCarthy's play-calling, or some mystical force from beyond - give the Green Bay Packers more than three fresh sets of downs each and every game - that they do not give to any other team or quarterback. It absolutely happens. As a football fan, it is frustrating to watch. As a Vikings fan, it infuriates me.

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.