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Kevin Williams

#93 / Defensive Tackle / Minnesota Vikings

6-5

311

Aug 16, 1980

Oklahoma State

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Gonzo Reads Magazines - Pro Football Weekly NFL Preview

Well, it's the last day of May, and you know what that means.  Obviously, it means that the first NFL preview issues of the season are hitting a newsstand near you!  Honestly, I keep joking about this happening earlier every single year, and yet every single year. . .it keeps happening earlier.  But hey, it gives us something to discuss, so let's do that.

The first two magazines of the year are Lindy's Pro Football Preview, which I'll look at in a future post, and our subject for this discussion, the Pro Football Weekly NFL Preview issue.  PFW grades each team in eight different categories, giving each position a letter grade on the school-style "A through F" scale.  Let's take a look at where they've ranked the different units of the NFC North teams.

Chicago Detroit Green Bay Minnesota
Quarterbacks C- C- C D+
Running Backs C- D B A
Receivers C- B+ A- C-
Offensive Line C- D+ B- B
Defensive Line B C B A
Linebackers A- C- B B
Defensive Backs B- C B C
Special Teams A B B B
Predicted 2008 Record 7-9 5-11 9-7 8-8
Odds to Win Super Bowl 15-1 60-1 20-1 15-1

Honestly, I'm not sure if it's some sort of typo or what, but I'm not sure how PFW has the Vikings AND Bears listed with better odds to win the Super Bowl than Green Bay, yet still have Green Bay winning the division.

As you can see, when looking at the individual units, the Beloved Purple come out on top in 3 of the 8 categories, the Packers come out on top in 3 of the 8 categories, and the Bears take the other 2. . .sorry, Detroit.  Overall, the only one of the rankings above that I can really argue with is the quarterback category.  I discussed this with The Sports Guru and BigBlueShoe this past Tuesday on the SBNation Football Frenzy, and it still boggles my mind that so many football "experts" can be so completely sold on Aaron Rodgers and so completely convinced that Tarvaris Jackson will never be anything better than awful.  On top of that, if we're looking at depth charts as a whole, I don't know how you can grade Green Bay's QBs any higher than Minnesota's.

For starters, comparing the two offenses, Green Bay's offense is much more dependent on the pass than Minnesota's is.  Hell, Minnesota's offense isn't just a run-first offense. . .it's the run-first offense.  Say what you will about Brett Favre. . .and I hate the guy as much as anybody. . .but Green Bay's running game got absolutely destroyed for the first half of 2007, and he carried that team during that time.  Apparently, based on one whole half of football in a game against Dallas where he entered the game with his team losing by 17 points, some people think that Aaron Rodgers is capable of exactly the same thing.  I, on the other hand, would beg to differ.  Ryan Grant better hope he gets that big new contract here soon, because he's going to take a serious thumping in 2008.

As far as the rest of the depth chart. . .Aaron Rodgers has no NFL starting experience, and has played against largely prevent defenses in the games he has played.  If he goes out and throws a boneheaded pass, he gets to go back to the bench, as most quarterbacks do, and discuss it with his backup.  Oh, his backup just happens to be a rookie that's never seen an NFL defense before.  And the guy that's backing up THAT rookie?  Also a rookie.  But, apparently, having three guys with a combined zero NFL starts and about 7 quarters of NFL game experience gives you a better quarterback situation than a team with guy that actually has 16 games of starting experience in the NFL and a 15-year NFL vet backing him up.  Please.  The Vikings might not have the best QB situation in the NFC North or anything, but it's certainly no worse than the team that, according to these rankings, has the best one.

Outside of that, as I said, the rankings appear to be pretty solid.  Still scratching my head over the "Odds to Win the Super Bowl" stuff as it relates to record, but it's not my magazine.  I'm just relaying what the nice people at PFW are printing.

PFW also has a feature that ranks the top players at each position, including a list of the Top 50 NFL players regardless of position.  The ratings go on a 1.0 to 5.0 scale.  Here are the NFC North players that are featured on the list and where they're ranked:

5) Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota - 4.55
16) Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota - 4.3
23) Brian Urlacher, MLB, Chicago - 4.2
25) Kevin Williams, DT, Minnesota - 4.2
46) Devin Hester, RS, Chicago - 4.0
47) Tommie Harris, DT, Chicago - 4.0

Allen is the highest-rated defensive player on the list. . .the four players ranked ahead of him are a few guys named Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Randy Moss (in that order).  Pretty good stuff, I'd say.

As far as the individual positions, here's where NFC North players are ranked on the lists:

Quarterbacks - Jon Kitna #26, Rex Grossman #27, Tarvaris Jackson listed among "Top Veteran Prospects"
Running Backs - Adrian Peterson #3, Ryan Grant #20, Chester Taylor #29
Tight Ends - Greg Olsen #13, Donald Lee #16
Wide Receivers - Donald Driver #12, Roy Williams #17, Greg Jennings #22, Bernard Berrian #24, Calvin Johnson listed among "Top Veteran Prospects"
Centers - Olin Kreutz #3, Matt Birk #4 (huh?), Dominic Raiola #19
Guards - Steve Hutchinson #3, Daryn Colledge listed among "Top Veteran Prospects"
Tackles - Bryant McKinnie #7, Chad Clifton #9, John Tait #16, Mark Tauscher #17, Jeff Backus #24

Defensive Ends - Jared Allen #1, Aaron Kampman #6, Adewale Ogunleye #19, Dewayne White #28, Mark Anderson and Cullen Jenkins listed among "Top Veteran Prospects"
Defensive Tackles - Kevin Williams #2, Tommie Harris #3, Pat Williams #4, Cory Redding #19, Ryan Pickett #21, Johnny Jolly listed among "Top Veteran Prospects"
Inside Linebackers - Brian Urlacher #1, Nick Barnett #11, E.J. Henderson #19
Outside Linebackers - Lance Briggs #6, Ernie Sims #11, A.J. Hawk #16, Chad Greenway listed among "Top Veteran Prospects"
Cornerbacks - Antoine Winfield #10, Charles Woodson #11, Al Harris #12 (suck it, Woodson and Harris), Charles Tillman #18
Safeties - Darren Sharper #7, Madieu Williams #14, Atari Bigby #23, Dwight Smith #24, Gerald Alexander, Nick Collins, and Danieal Manning listed among "Top Veteran Prospects

Return Specialists - Devin Hester #1
Kicker - No NFCN players listed
Punter - No NFCN players listed

That's the inside scoop on what the NFC North looks like according to the good folks at Pro Football Weekly.  Feel free to use the comment section to discuss these rankings, any agreements or disagreements, and just generally looking at the NFC North.

Not sure if there will be anything later on today or not. . .Mrs. Gonzo and I have plans for this afternoon, but I could possibly get something up here later on today.  If not, be sure to check back tomorrow.  Enjoy your Saturday, ladies and gentlemen!

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Ray Edwards Loves Him Some Him

No matter what walk of life it is that you find yourself in, it's always important that you have goals for yourself.  It's also important that you keep those goals at least partially grounded in reality.

Which brings us to Ray Edwards, who right now is the fourth Musketeer alongside of Jared Allen, the Irresistible Force, and the Immovable Object.  He has a goal for himself for the 2008 season.  That goal?  Oh, nothing major. . .just taking down Michael Strahan's record of 22.5 sacks in a season.

Edwards isn't chasing boxing titles, but he is stalking the NFL sack record, held by NY Giants star end Michael Strahan. "I look up to Strahan. I learned a lot from him watching and studying his film." Then Edwards threw in another eye-popping statement: "This year I definitely plan on going out here and breaking Strahan's record of 22 and 1/2 sacks this year."

Wow. Edwards didn't mince words. But it was spoken with confidence, not arrogance. And don't forget, Jared Allen is on the other side, who had 15.5 sacks as a Pro Bowl end in Kansas City. The Vikings paid Allen millions to leave the Chiefs. That's heady company that Edwards keeps.

"You want to be the best, you have to go after the best so that's what I want to do. I want to be the best that ever played this game so you got to go after it."

Well, then. . .so much for that whole "reality" thing.

Don't get me wrong. . .I like Ray Edwards as a player quite a bit.  I love the committment he's shown since being shown the door for the last 4 games of the season last year, where he (arguably) could have made a difference.  And, quite frankly, the guy probably won't see a double-team all season long. . .not with the other guys on the D-line for Minnesota that teams are going to have to worry about.  As I've mentioned before, Al Noga managed to rack up 11.5 sacks one year when he played next to Chris Doleman, Henry Thomas, and Keith Millard.  Edwards has the physical ability to be at least that good.

But let's not get carried away. . .the Vikings haven't had a player rack up double-digit sacks since Kevin Williams put up 10.5 in 2004.  I fully expect that to change this year, and I'd love nothing more than to see more than one Viking reach that level.  But 23 sacks in a season?  Particularly when there's no Brett Favre out there to take a dive so you can have a gimme?  That's a pretty tall order.  We'll just have to see how things develop.

EDITORS NOTE:  Thanks to the folks at Vikings Message Board for pointing out my error.  I initially had John Randle as part of that D-line, but it was Keith Millard that was there instead.  This is what happens when you start typing faster than you think.  (-:

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Honest-to-God News from the Vikings' OTAs

The Vikings' official website has a blog now, and it's currently being used to document some stuff from the Vikings Organized Team Activities (OTAs).  There's not a heck of a lot there at the moment, but damn it, it's better than nothing.

A couple of particularly encouraging passages:

The last play of highlight-caliber also came from Jackson, only this time he hooked up with second-year receiver Sidney Rice. On the play, Jackson dropped back and looked at a few different options, only to find all of them were covered by defenders. Finally he looked down the middle of the field and noticed a streaking Rice, hitting him almost in stride for what would’ve been a touchdown. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell was so excited he nearly jumped out of his shoes and then gave Jackson a big high-five on his way back to the huddle.

I asked Jackson after practice what was going on with all the excitement following that play, and here was his response:

“Last year we didn’t make that throw,” Jackson said. “We didn’t even bother to make that read. It was an alert, so we (Jackson and Rice) were on the same page and we knew that he (Rice) would have a legitimate chance to make that play. We didn’t make that throw last year and it’s been a big emphasis this offseason to make that read and make that throw. We got what we wanted out of the coverage, and we were able to make the throw and the catch.”

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. . .anyone that feels compelled to just write Tarvaris Jackson off is going to end up looking really stupid, and they'll end up looking that way sooner rather than later.

And this second one:

Allen’s physical presence is imposing and it would’ve been interesting to see the results had today’s practice been a typical training camp workout. Several times during full-team drills, Allen found his way through or around the offensive line and in the backfield, either flushing the quarterback out or ending a running play prematurely.

With personalities like Allen, Pat Williams and Brian Robison, there was always plenty of chatter coming from the defensive line. But often times the lineman weren’t chastising players in other positions, they were giving each other a hard time, in a joking manner.

“It’s a great group of guys and we just have fun out there,” Allen said. “It’s football, and if you can’t have fun then you shouldn’t be playing.”

Yeah. . .I look forward to seeing Jared and Pat and Kevin having a lot of fun this year, starting on 9 September when they take turns planting Aaron Rodgers like a tulip bulb.  Nice to seeing the best pass-rushing DE in the game picking up right where he left off last season.

Man, is it August yet?  It needs to be here very soon. . .I hate this waiting garbage.

That's all for tonight, folks. . .enjoy the rest of your Monday, and we'll see you back here again tomorrow!

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Vikings News: It Must Be Mid-May

Because the national coverage and/or perception of the Vikings has been overwhelmingly positive over the course of the past few days.  Don't worry. . .as we get closer to the start of the season and the media remembers who we open the season with, I'm sure the positive coverage will come to a screeching halt.  But I'm sure as heck going to enjoy it while it lasts!

We'll start out with a little tidbit from the Sporting News, in which they gathered a consensus as to which team in the NFC has the best safeties. . .and you'll never believe what team came out on top:

1. Minnesota Vikings

Darren Sharper and Madieu Williams are strong playmakers. Williams adds sticky coverage skills. Michael Boulware provides experienced depth, and rookie Tyrell Johnson could get time in the nickel package.

Boy. . .for a guy that, according to "fans" from the other side of the border, has been washed up for. . .let's see. . .exactly three years, two months, and three days, ol' #42 sure seems to be getting along okay.  I guess that Pro Bowl berth he earned last year wasn't just based on past merits after all.

The article also goes on to name Sharper as the best safety in the NFC.  Note how none of the other NFC North teams can even crack the top half of the list.  With the improved pass rush that we'll be seeing this season, it would be silly not to project another Pro Bowl berth for Sharper at this point.

The next bit of praise comes from Fox Sports' John Czarnecki, who sites five teams that he feels have made enough improvement to contend for the Super Bowl. . .and, boy howdy, you'll never guess who made this list, too!

Vikings

By spending more than $70 million on new talent, Vikings owner Zygi Wilf is telling Coach Brad Childress that his third season better include a playoff berth. Unless Tavaris Jackson doesn't improve a lick, the Vikings have the team to beat in the NFC North. If Jackson continues to make strides along with runner Adrian Peterson, Minnesota will be better equipped to control every game's tempo because their defensive pass rush should be the NFL's best. Yes, ex-Chief Jared Allen is that good, plus he's being teamed with Kevin and Pat Williams, already the game's best duo at defensive tackle.

The quarterback position has been upgraded with the arrival of veteran Gus Frerotte, who can win in a reserve role, and with USC rookie John David Booty who played on college's biggest stage with the Trojans. Ex-Bear Bernard Berrian gives Childress a bonafide deep threat opposite Sidney Rice. The defense is a lot more than Allen, too, because E.J. Henderson and Chad Greenway are above-average linebackers and ex-Bengal safety Madieu Williams is a lot better player and more reliable than the departed Dwight Smith. With the retirement of Brett Favre, the Packers won't be favored to repeat as division champions. The Vikings have two big tests this season — home to Peyton Manning and the Colts and at Jacksonville in late November. If they win one of those, watch out!

That highlighted part of the first paragraph is the key there.  See, Jackson doesn't have to turn into Peyton Manning or Tom Brady or anything like that. . .he simply needs to become more consistent.  You really can't argue with the fact that he went 8-4 as a starter last year. . .and should have been 9-3 (screw you very much, Troy Williamson). . .and the fact that he was throwing to what might have been the worst WR corps in the NFL couldn't have helped his development, either.  Don't tell me that he "didn't have anything to do with the victories," either.  It's the NFL. . .every player on the team contributes to every victory, and every player on the team contributes to every loss.

But yes. . .quite frankly, the Vikings are the team to beat in the NFC North in 2008.  If you have issues with my assessment. . .well, that's a you problem, not a me problem.

Speaking of young Mr. Jackson. . .no less an authority than former NFL MVP Rich Gannon says that he's expecting some pretty big things from the Vikings' QB in 2008:

"I'm excited. I got a chance to go out there a little bit, and I watched -- really, I wanted to look at Tarvaris and see where he has come in just the one short year -- and I got a chance to watch some film and sit down with [coach Brad] Childress and really look at him, and talk about him, and evaluate him," said Gannon.

"I think he's made great strides. I think he's a very athletic guy, very gifted, and the big thing for him this year is just consistency."

...

"He's got to play 16 games, he only finished 12 games a year ago, he needs to play 16 games," Gannon said. "He needs to be more efficient and more consistent. And if he can do those two things -- with the running game they have, the offensive line, they've upgraded their receivers, they're going to be better defensively -- there's no reason why that team cannot win the NFC North."

Yep. . .it's all about consistency for #7 this year.  And, hopefully, having a more consistent WR corps with the addition of Bernard Berrian, the maturation of Sidney Rice, and the steadiness of Bobby Wade (particularly now that he's the real #3 guy and not a #3 masquerading as a #1) will be a big part of that.

I think it's kind of funny that there are so many "experts" out there that have made the determination that the Vikings should be looking to abandon Jackson after 14 career NFL starts because they've already drawn the conclusion that he isn't ready.  How many QBs in NFL history have looked like garbage in their first 14 NFL starts?  Now, if Jackson goes out THIS season and stinks up the joint, the team should start looking in another direction. . .and I'm sure they will be, because if Jackson is terrible in 2008, Brad Childress will be looking for a job.

The other funny thing as it relates to the NFC North is that so many of these same "experts" that declare Tarvaris Jackson to be useless are completely sold on Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers.  So, apparently, a guy that goes 8-4 in his first full year as a starter while throwing to an awful receiving corps doesn't impress some people. . .but a guy who, in three NFL seasons, has as many trips to IR as he does TD passes while playing exclusively garbage time football is, somehow, the second coming.

Honestly, you couldn't make that up if you tried.

Like I said, folks. . .enjoy it while it lasts.  I can't guarantee how much longer that will be or anything, but it's nice to see for a little bit, anyway.

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The Myth of Jared Allen's Fourth Quarter Sack Production

As I read the comments in the fanpost over on the side connected to the Jared Allen interview posted by FSU Viking, I said I'd be curious to see a breakdown of the number of run plays and pass plays used by KC opponents in the games that Jared Allen played in last season.

Well, curiosity killed the. . .something or other. So, I set about breaking this down myself.  Keeping in mind that Allen missed the Chiefs' first two games last season, here's how the fourth quarters of the 14 games the Chiefs played in 2007 looked like.

Opponent Score after 3 Opp. Pass Plays Opp. Run Plays Final Score
MIN MIN 10, KC 6 12 3 KC 13, MIN 10
@ SD KC 16, SD 16 12 2 KC 30, SD 16
JAC JAC 10, KC 0 9 11 JAC 17, KC 7
CIN KC 20, CIN 7 21 2 KC 27, CIN 20
@ OAK OAK 7, KC 6 8 4 KC 12, OAK 10
GB GB 13, KC 7 6 5 GB 33, KC 22
DEN DEN 20, KC 11 5 13 DEN 27, KC 11
@ IND KC 10, IND 10 9 7 IND 13, KC 10
OAK KC 17, OAK 13 5 6 OAK 20, KC 17
SD SD 17, KC 10 4 11 SD 24, KC 10
@ DEN DEN 41, KC 7 3 4 DEN 41, KC 7
TEN TEN 20, KC 17 1 15 TEN 26, KC 17
@ DET DET 22, KC 14 6 11 DET 25, KC 20
@ NYJ NYJ 10, KC 3 7 17 NYJ 13, KC 10 (OT)

By my count, that's 108 pass plays and 111 run plays faced by the Chiefs' defense in the 14 games that Jared Allen participated in.  However, if you look at the games that they lost, those numbers change to 55 pass plays and 100 run plays, a nearly 2:1 ratio in favor of the run.  It's relatively tough to get sacks when the other team isn't. . .you know. . .throwing the football.  Looking at the play-by-play stuff I sifted through in order to put that table together, I didn't see a lot of other Kansas City Chiefs racking up sacks in the fourth quarters of ball games either, and we know that Allen was the only guy on that line that was worthy of being double-teamed.

In addition, there's more to Allen's pass-rushing than just sacks.  Last season, he also had 24 quarterback hurries, which is a pretty significant number.  To put that in perspective, Minnesota's leader in that department. . .Kenechi Udeze. . .had 15.  E.J. Henderson was next in line with 11.  So Allen had almost as many quarterback hurries in 2007. . .in two fewer games, mind you. . .than the Vikings' top two players in that category combined.  And, again, he did it on a defensive line that didn't have a whole lot else.  Tamba Hali is a nice player, but with Allen out of the picture, I expect to see him getting more of those double teams until Glenn Dorsey can establish himself in the middle.

I expect Allen to be in a much different situation with the Vikings this season.  As the Vikings' offense prepares to take another step forward in its development, I expect them to have the lead going into the fourth quarter on many, many occasions in 2008.  Since he'll be lining up next to the Irresistible Force and the Immovable Object on the Vikings' defensive line, he'll also be seeing. . .and destroying. . .more one-on-one blocking.  There have been a couple of places I've seen predicting a possible 20-sack season for Allen.  Honestly?  I'd love to see it.  I don't know if I'd predict as many as 20, what with there no longer being any spineless QBs in the NFC North that might be willing to take a dive for him, but he should get a significant number of sacks in 2008. . .and plenty in the fourth quarter, too.

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