The good folks at the SB Nation mothership have put out their latest 2012 NFL Mock Draft, and it details what I personally feel would be one of the ideal scenarios for our Minnesota Vikings.

One of the two best possible scenarios would be for USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil to land in Minnesota's lap at #3. However, since the mock is written by Ryan van Bibber, who happens to run our St. Louis Rams blog Turf Show Times (and is, therefore, incredibly and unbelievably biased), he has Kalil going to the Rams at #2.

I'm just kidding. . .RVB isn't biased. Even if he was, Kalil would be a great pick for the Rams, too, so I can't get too bent out of shape over that whole scenario.

So that leaves the other ideal scenario. . .the one where the Vikings hold an auction for whoever wants to move up and draft Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III with the third overall selection. As of now, RGIII falls all the way to the Washington Redskins at #6. . .but with the way things stand now, that's not happening. If the Redskins want Griffin, they're going to have to move up for him and/or outbid some other teams (the Miami Dolphins come to mind).

Now, if the team to move up did turn out to be Washington, it isn't inconceivable that the Vikings could get a pretty decent haul for the third overall pick. According to the good old Value Chart, the third overall pick is worth 2,200 "points," while the sixth pick is worth 1600. (If you go by this particular scale.) In order to make up that difference, the Redskins would have to give up their second round pick (the 39th overall selection). . .or, in a scenario the Vikings might like more, their first round choice in 2013, as a current second round choice is generally given the same value as a future first rounder.

Of course, if the Vikings can manage to start a bidding war, the Value Chart would likely go out the window. . .and the Vikings would get a whole lot more for their pick. Of course, the Rams could end up being the team that holds the auction for the rights to RGIII, in which case we're back to the Vikings taking Kalil third overall.

It's a little more than three months before the 2012 NFL Draft. . .we're going to have a lot of time to mull over these sorts of things, ladies and gentlemen.

Thanks to our friends at Stampede Blue for getting to this first.

The top 18 picks in the 2012 National Football League Draft are all set. To borrow an old line from Steven Wright, it doesn't look something like this. . .it looks exactly like this.

1) Indianapolis Colts (2-14)
2) St. Louis Rams (2-14)
3) Minnesota Vikings (3-13)
4) Cleveland Browns (4-12)
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
6) Washington Redskins (5-11)
7) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
8/9) Carolina Panthers (6-10)*
8/9) Miami Dolphins (6-10)*
10) Buffalo Bills (6-10)
11/12) Seattle Seahawks (7-9)**
11/12) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)**
13) Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
14) Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
15) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)
16) New York Jets (8-8)
17) Oakland Raiders (8-8) (This pick will go to the Cincinnati Bengals as part of the Carson Palmer trade)
18) San Diego Chargers (8-8)
19) Chicago Bears (8-8)
20) Tennessee Titans (9-7)

* - Pick will be decided by a coin flip between Carolina and Miami
** - Pick will be decided by a coin flip between Arizona and Kansas City

Picks 21 through 32 are based on playoff seedings. The four teams that lose in the wild card round will select 21-24, the four teams that lose in the divisional round select 25-28, the two teams that lose in the conference championship games pick at 29 and 30, the Super Bowl loser selects at 31, and the Super Bowl winner picks 32nd. Of those teams in the playoffs, two of them are playing for the draft positioning of other teams, however. . .the New Orleans Saints' first-round pick goes to the New England Patriots, and the Atlanta Falcons' first-round choice this year belongs to the Cleveland Browns.

Two main scenarios I see for the Vikings at this point?

1) Andrew Luck goes #1 to. . .well, somebody (probably Indianapolis), Matt Kalil goes #2 to St. Louis, and the Vikings auction off the third pick to whoever wants to move up and draft Robert Griffin III
2) Luck goes first, someone else trades up to St. Louis' spot to take Griffin III, and the Vikings take Kalil to plug into the left tackle spot for the next decade

Personally, I'd be happy with either one. . .but there's going to be plenty of time to talk about that.

The "compensatory pick" portion of the National Football League draft has always been a bit of a mystery. The compensatory picks are usually given out about a month before the draft, and the somewhat nebulous rules governing them simply state that

Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a club is covered by this formula.

The number of compensatory picks given out always equals 32, and compensatory picks can't be traded. Compensatory picks are no higher than third-rounders, and after those have been given out, picks are simply added to the end of the seventh round, based on draft order, until the number of compensatory picks equals 32. There were 21 picks given out in the 2011 Draft based on the free agency rules, so 11 more were added to the end of the seventh round. (Of course, the Vikings selected 12th in 2011, which means they just barely missed out on receiving an extra draft pick and getting the chance to draft Mr. Irrelevant.)

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We already know that the Minnesota Vikings can no longer get the top overall selection in the 2012 NFL Draft. They took that possibility off of the table with their victory over the Washington Redskins on Saturday afternoon. However, depending on what happens on New Year's Day, the Vikings could have a bit of a swing in where they do actually select.

Right now, there are six teams in the National Football League that have four wins or fewer. Those teams are the Indianapolis Colts (two wins), St. Louis Rams (two wins), the Vikings (three wins), Cleveland Browns (four wins), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (four wins), and Jacksonville Jaguars (four wins). Those are the teams that the Vikings are jockeying for draft position with.

Obviously, if the Vikings lose on Sunday to the Chicago Bears, they can select no worse than third. If the Rams win and the Vikings lose, then it would appear that the Vikings would leapfrog the Rams based on strength of schedule and wind up with the second spot. However, the Rams are going to be facing a San Francisco 49ers team that is still fighting for the second overall seed in the NFC and a first-round playoff bye, so that's a pretty tall order. With all due respect to our friends at Turf Show Times, I wouldn't anticipate a St. Louis victory on Sunday.

With a Vikings' win, they'll be battling with the Browns, Buccaneers, and Jaguars. According to our friends at the Great Blue North Draft Report, those three teams all currently have a lower strength of schedule than the Vikings do. That means that, as things stand now, a Vikings' victory over the Bears on Sunday afternoon could drop the Vikings all the way down to the #6 overall pick in the draft.

Taking a look at those three teams, the Buccaneers are pretty much a dead team walking, as Coach Raheem Morris is probably coaching his last game when Tampa travels to the Georgia Dome on Sunday to take on the Atlanta Falcons. Jacksonville is going to be hosting the Colts, but they've been so atrocious lately that the Colts might even be favored in that one. The Browns finish the season by hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that is still battling for a first-round bye in the AFC.

Looking at those three games, the only one of those three teams I would even remotely expect a victory from would be Jacksonville. And, as I've said, they've been awful lately.

One other thing to keep in mind is that head-to-head match-ups, apparently, do not have any role in breaking ties between teams when it comes to the draft order. So, Tampa Bay's Week 2 victory over the Vikings doesn't mean anything. . .if both the Vikings and the Buccaneers end up 4-12 and Tampa has the lower strength of schedule, then they'll get a higher selection than the Vikings do.

So, to recap, if the Vikings lose to Chicago, they're guaranteed no worse than the third overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft (and no better than the second overall pick, because the Colts beat them in any strength of schedule tiebreaker). If the Vikings beat the Bears to end the season, they can still draft third, but don't be surprised if they drop as far as sixth.

Man, if some of you are pissed off that the Vikings missed out on #1 overall, you're going to be downright homicidal if they drop out of the top five.

So, the past couple of days have largely been spent debating the merits of taking Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Of course, the right to select Luck would be contingent on the Vikings getting that pick, which is currently held by the 1-13 Indianapolis Colts.

Well, one of the sports guys from an Indianapolis radio station has run the numbers a bit more extensively than I have, and it appears that the only way the Colts are going to fall out of the number one spot in the draft is if they win both of their final two games. The Colts play tomorrow night against Houston, and finish the season with a trip to Jacksonville. Derek Schultz has played out what is the "worst case" for Indianapolis and the "best case" for both Minnesota and St. Louis, and finds that if all three teams were to finish 2-14, it looks like the Colts would stay at #1, while the Vikings would pick second and St. Louis would end up in third.

(Hat tip to our friends at Stampede Blue for that link.)

It could end up getting even less complicated if the Colts should lose to the Texans tomorrow night, according to NFL.com. If Indy ends up losing tomorrow night, it would push the Rams out of the running for the top selection, leaving the race down to the Colts and the Vikings. And even then, it's going to be a pretty tall order for the Vikings to end up with the top selection.

If the Colts lose to the Texans, the best their strength of schedule could be at the end of the season is .5469.

If the Vikings lose their final two games, the worst their strength of schedule could be also is .5469.

The Rams' strength of schedule could be at worst .5586, so they cannot land the No. 1 pick if the Colts lose a 14th game because Indy's best strength of schedule would be lower than the worst possible for St. Louis.

The only other tiebreakers for draft order apply to teams in the same division or conference, which the Colts and Vikings are not. What this means is if any of the Colts' unique opponents (teams who didn't also play the Vikings) lose or any of the Vikings' unique opponents win, then Indy will lock up the No. 1 pick. It will just take one loss by a Colts unique opponents or one win by a Vikings unique opponent.

And if all those things were to fall into place, even then we'd still be looking at a coin flip with the Colts for the #1 overall pick.

Seriously, what the hell chance do you suppose this franchise would have in a coin flip situation?

I guess what I'm trying to say is that nobody should get too attached to the idea of picking first overall in the draft, unless the Colts can go on a mini-run at the end of the year here.

The Minnesota Vikings selected defensive end/linebacker Chris Doleman with the fourth overall pick in the 1985 NFL Draft, following a 1984 season where they went 3-13. In the 26 drafts that have followed, the Vikings have never selected higher than #7 overall.

That will change this season, unfortunately. The Vikings can not get more than four wins for the season, and after yesterday's results, 26 NFL teams have at least five wins, which means the Vikings' selection will be in the top six of the 2012 NFL Draft. One more loss will clinch a top three selection for the Vikings, which seems like a given at this point, as sad as that is.

In addition, with the Indianapolis Colts getting their first win of the season on Sunday and moving to 1-13 on the year, the top overall pick is back in play again. That would be another bit of dubious history for the Vikings, as they have never actually earned the top overall pick because of their play on the field. Yes, the Vikings have had the first overall pick in the draft twice in their history. . .however, the first time was in 1961 as an expansion team before they had ever taken the field, and the second time was in 1968 with a pick they acquired from the New York Giants as part of the Fran Tarkenton trade.

Now, as we've discussed, any ties in the draft order are broken by strength of schedule, with the team with the weaker strength of schedule being given the higher pick. So, to put it simply, in order to get the highest pick possible it would be beneficial if the teams that have appeared on their schedule this season to lose (making the Vikings' strength of schedule lower) and teams that appear on the schedules of both the Colts and the St. Louis Rams to win, thereby making their strength of schedule higher.

As far as strength of schedule, a lot of people have asked about it thus far, so I've broken down the final two weeks of NFL match-ups. Bear in mind, I'm not advocating cheering for the Vikings to lose, and I'm sure as hell not cheering for the Vikings to lose. However, if we want the Vikings to win any potential tiebreakers with other teams at the top of the draft, after the jump will follow the results we would be looking for and why.

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When you're 2-10 with four games left to go in the season, the tendency is to keep one eye on the draft and one eye on the season, and we have been no exception over here. As of now, barring a miracle run at the end of their season, the Indianapolis Colts are going to have the first overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, and as far as we're concerned, the real race is for the second overall pick between our Minnesota Vikings and the St. Louis Rams.

Now, different websites are projecting different things as far as who has the second overall selection between us and the Rams, who also sit at 2-10 with four games remaining. When two teams are tied for a particular draft spot, the first tiebreaker that gets looked at is strength of schedule. The team with the weaker strength of schedule gets the higher selection, presumably because if you get a bad record against bad teams, you need more help than a team that has a bad record against good teams. . .or something like that.

Based on that, if the season were to end today. . .after 12 games. . .the Rams would, indeed, hold the second overall pick in the draft. The schedules thus far break down as follows:

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With the Indianapolis Colts having the top overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft seemingly on lockdown already, the battle is ongoing for the right to draft the first non-Andrew Luck player on the board this April. If the season were to end today, the Vikings would, indeed, have the second overall pick in the draft.

It has widely been assumed that the Vikings would grab USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil with that high first round selection. . .which makes it a bit disappointing that rumors are swirling that the 6'6", 295-pound junior is planning on returning to Southern Cal for his senior season. It's not a move that would make a lot of sense to me, personally. . .if Kalil declares for the draft, he's a top three selection and an instant millionaire, but I'm not Matt Kalil, so I don't know what else he's taking into consideration.

Now, we've been saying all year that the Vikings have three major need areas going into the 2012 draft: offensive line, wide receiver, and secondary. The consensus, as of now (and I realize a lot can change between now and the combine) is that there is one uber-elite prospect at each of those positions. Kalil is the consensus best offensive lineman in the draft, the top wide receiver on the board is Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon, and the best cornerback on the board appears to be LSU's Morris Claiborne. There are a couple of solid offensive line prospects in Stanford's Jonathan Martin and Iowa's Riley Reiff. . .but you don't take "solid" at #2 overall. You're looking for spectacular.

One thing that could help the Vikings is the fact that, depending on who declares, this could be a very heavy quarterback-heavy top of the draft. CBS Sports, who is the source of the Kalil rumor linked above, has three quarterbacks in the top six on their "big board". Luck is the consensus #1 overall pick, and we've known that for a long time, but Kalil's USC teammate, Matt Barkley, and the amazing Robert Griffin III from Baylor are also in the top six, to say nothing of guys like Oklahoma's Landry Jones, Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill, and Christian Ponder's successor at Florida State, E.J. Manuel. All six of those quarterbacks appear in the top 50 on CBS' big board, and a good combine or pro day performance could jump them up the board as well.

Oh, and of those six guys, only Tannehill is a senior. . .the rest of them are juniors. Again, it depends on who decides they're coming out. But if enough of them come out and the Vikings can find themselves a trading partner that is crazy for one of those quarterbacks, they could trade down for extra picks and get one of the two offensive tackles I mentioned earlier.

Kalil is the easy pick for the Vikings if they end up at #2 overall and he decides he's entering the draft after all. But if he's not there, what do you suppose the Vikings should do?