Frigga's Fantasy Football Fridays - Week 11

Welcome to another edition of Frigga's Fantasy Football Fridays where you can read up about our Minnesota's Vikings chances in fantasy football every week. As always, using Frigga’s inspiration and guidance, I will be checking back on this thread periodically to provide sit/start and trading or general roster advice in the comments section, should you wish to seek it. And others should feel free to chime in as well. Think of this as a weekly open thread dedicated to all things fantasy football. As a general rule, the stats provided here assume a standard 10-team league, such as those found at Yahoo! Sports or ESPN.

So, what's your narrative? Each one of my fantasy teams seems to have a narrative that has defined them this year. My "main" league, the standard league I setup 4 years ago with a bunch of friends, co-workers and old college buddies, has been one of my most disappointing. The narrative this year is "I can't catch a break." It started with 2 out of my top 3 draft picks turning out to be busts (Trent Richardson and Roddy White), and then continued when I put up over 100 standard fantasy points in both of the first two weeks and still lost to open the year 0-2. Later I lost by 3 points against an opponent who left in Drew Brees on a BYE, because Trent Richardson couldn't muster more than 37 yards and a fumble on 14 carries and Doug Martin went down after only 11 carries for 47 yards and 5 measly little fantasy points. I had two first round pick running backs produce less than 7 combined fantasy points that week. Later on I was up against Megatron the week he put up over 300 yards and a score, and I lost despite putting up a respectable point total. I followed that up the next week by having to face Andre Johnson when he put up over 200 yards and 3 TDs and again lost. I've grabbed the following players on waivers only to have them get injured or suspended: James Starks, Justin Blackmon and Kyle Rudolph. I made blockbuster trades for the following guys that were either injured or didn't pan out: Montee Ball, Doug Martin, and Mike James. This is a team that, no matter what I do on the waiver wire or via trades, I just can't catch a break. This team is 3-7, but has not been mathematically eliminated yet. We're 3 games back with 4 games yet to play (including one against the division leader). Anything is possible, but with the way things have gone, winning the division just wouldn't fit the narrative. Just as I'm writing this I see that Donald Brown has scored his 2^nd touchdown on Thursday Night Football and now has over 21 points so far, nearly double his best game this season. Guess who's playing against him? That's right, me. I Can't. Catch. A. Break.

So, this week our Minnesota Vikings travel on the road (shouldn't we change that to "through the air", who drives anymore?) to face the Seattle Seahawks. And unlike last week, they have a very good defense, and one that is even better at home. Yes the Seattle defense is a little banged up, but their depth is so good that it likely won't matter for fantasy purposes. If you want to save yourself some reading, just know that I'm pretty much down on everyone not named Adrian Peterson this week. But never-the-less, here are your cumulative fantasy stats for Week 11!

Christian Ponder	Passing Yards	TDs	INTs	Rush Yards	Rush TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Yahoo!	221	0.9	1.3	22.4	0.2	13.29
CBS	195.3	0	1.7	23.3	0.3	7.4
Fleaflicker	261	1	3	15	0	13
Average	225.766667	0.633333	2	20.23333	0.166667	11.23

Ponder was having a great game last week, but couldn't finish and so his point total wasn't quite as good as the previous week against Dallas. But none of that matters, because the Seattle defense is elite against QBs in fantasy, allowing an average of only 10.1 points to the position. Ponder will be in for a rough night. It's too bad that ESPN didn't update their projections as they have Matt Cassel as the projected starter (giving him 181 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT for 9 fantasy points if you're curious). So factor that into the cumulative projections if you must. Ponder has traditionally been an ok QB in fantasy against good matchups, and dreadful in bad ones.

Frigga Says: A banged up Ponder against an elite defense is plenty of reason to leave Ponder on your bench/waiver wire.

Adrian Peterson	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	114	1	16	0	18
Yahoo!	94.6	0.8	20.5	0	16.21
CBS	85.3	1	17.7	0	15
Fleaflicker	113	1	33	0	17
Average	101.725	0.95	21.8	0	16.5525

It would appear that Peterson is back to his old self, averaging 18.7 fantasy points per game the past 3 weeks. However, he's also had cake-walk matchups. It would be safe to assume a bit of a drop-off against a Seattle defense allowing an average of only 13.2 points to opposing running backs. But hey, it's still Adrian "Freaking" Peterson we're talking about here.

Frigga Says: If he plays, you always start him.

Greg Jennings	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	44	0	0	0	4
Yahoo!	44.9	0.2	0	0	5.63
CBS	32	0	0	0	3
Fleaflicker	53	0	0	0	5
Average	43.475	0.05	0	0	4.4075

Jennings days of double-digit projections are finally over. Even ESPN's historically over-projected totals have adjusted to reality. Jennings saw a slight uptick in targets in the recent past, but Simpson has continued to overtake him as the primary target and #1 receiver in the offense. That's not saying much, but the bottom line is Jennings just isn't going to produce this year, since he's averaging just under 6.6 targets per game. Ponder spreads the ball around too much, and doesn't pass often enough. Add in the fact that he's banged up this week with an Achilles injury (limited in practice Thursday), and this just looks like a bad week since the Seahawks only allow an average of 13.9 points to wide receivers.

Frigga Says: Jennings failed to take advantage of his best matchup last week, and therefore he belongs on your bench or waiver wire.

Jerome Simpson	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	52	0	0	0	5
Yahoo!	30.4	0.1	0	0	3.48
CBS	35.7	0	0	0	3
Fleaflicker	45	0	0	0	5
Average	40.775	0.025	0	0	4.12

As the old saying goes, "You can't fix stupid." Jerome Simpson was given the opportunity of a life-time and a real second chance with the Vikings, and it sure seems like he might have thrown that all away. It remains to be seen what consequences he'll have to face as a result of his poor choices, but there's a decent chance he'll still be on the field for this week at least. There are rumors abounding that he won't start, but even if he does, 7 targets per game just won't do it for fantasy football. Maybe Cordarrelle Patterson will get the start and see added snaps, but who knows. Despite being the #1 receiver on the team in yards and catches, it has amounted to being only the 62^nd best wide receiver in fantasy, and he has yet to catch a touchdown (see, I just tried to reverse jinx it there...you can thank me later).

Frigga Says: Keep Simpson on your bench or waiver wire.

John Carlson	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	34	0	0	0	3
Yahoo!	39.9	0.2	0	0	5.39
CBS	48	0	0	0	4
Fleaflicker	67	1	0	0	13
Average	47.225	0.3	0	0	6.3475

I love that I was wrong about John Carlson last week. I think he surprised just about everyone in the NFL with 98 yards and a TD. It certainly helped that he was playing such a bad defense, but he caught every ball thrown his way displaying excellent route running, soft hands and some real chemistry with Christian Ponder. But we'll need to temper our expectations against Seattle, who only allow 5.9 points to tight ends this season. Still, there are really no other TEs that Ponder will throw it to, so there should be some opportunities, and I always like players going up against their former teams.

Frigga Says: If you're desperate at TE, you could do worse than John Carlson this week.

Fantasy Points	Vikings Defense/Special Teams	Blair Walsh
ESPN	2	8
Yahoo!	6.21	6.79
CBS	2	5.2
Fleaflicker	12	5
Average	5.5525	6.2475

Blair Walsh had a great game last week, connecting on 2 field goals and 4 extra points. It's so hard to predict what kickers will do, but the projections don't look good. Seattle only allows 6 points to kickers, for whatever that is worth (but it's gone as high as 13 and as low as 1). The Vikings D/ST has looked dreadful the last three weeks, due to all the injuries (yeah, that's what it is...). But we do get a few starters back this week (Cook, Sanford, Guion and maybe Evans). But the Seattle Seahawks allow an average of 5.6 points to fantasy defenses so they're going to have another tough go of it (that feels weird to write that, because technically it's the Seattle offense that is allowing points to the fantasy defense...huh?).

Frigga Says: Continue to find better options on the waiver wire if you can.

Fantasy Over Achiever/Under Achiever

Like always, each week I'm going to pick a non-obvious player that I think will significantly outscore and underscore their weekly average based on opportunity, matchup or both. Don't think of this as sit/start advice necessarily, but rather to upgrade or lower your expectations.

Last week I went 2 of 2 in my predictions. While I wanted a pass due to injury the week before that, I didn't award myself the pass, and this week it pays off, because I get the benefit of being right due to the injury to Vernon Davis who went down after only 1 fantasy point. While Doug Baldwin overachieved his weekly average by over 30% (7.6 points against an average of 5.8), it was actually Jermaine Kearse who went off even more. I backed the wrong guy! In any case, here are my picks for this week:

Overachiever: TE Scott Chandler, Buffalo Bills

Scott Chandler is averaging only 5.1 fantasy points per game and has been pretty disappointing the last four weeks. However, he's got a great matchup facing the 28^th ranked fantasy defense against TEs in the New York Jets. He managed to put up 79 yards and a score against them in Week 3, and it will only help that EJ Manuel is back in the lineup and getting healthier. I will admit that I feel less confident about this pick than some of my previous ones, but I like the fact that he's done well against the Jets already this year.

Underachiever: TE Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos

Did I really just pick two tight ends? Yes. Yes I did. Julius Thomas is averaging an insane 12.1 fantasy points per game, ranked as the 2^nd best tight end in fantasy (having Peyton Manning throwing you the ball will do that for you). But, he is facing the #1 fantasy defense against the TE in the Kansas City Chiefs. They allow an average of 3.5 points per game to tight ends. Something has to give here, and in my opinion that something will be Thomas. When you factor in that Peyton Manning is dealing with a high ankle sprain, I just don't like the potential outcome. This game will be a HUGE test for the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and their vaunted defense, but they've had 2 weeks to prepare for this matchup. I expect some aspect of the Broncos passing game to suffer and I'm drawing my line in the sand with TE Julius Thomas.

Last Week 2-0, Season So Far: 3-1

P.S. Congrats are in order to Grime for winning the coveted Burger King Crown! His caption of the Josh Freeman photo from the "Why Josh Freeman Won't Start in 2013" thread received the most recs. His caption

Man, I could be playing for Green Bay right now.

received 4 recs. Way to go Grime! The paper crown is practically falling apart right now, but it's yours! So, cherish it.