Frigga's Fantasy Football Fridays: Week 12

Welcome to another edition of Frigga's Fantasy Football Fridays where you can read up about our Minnesota's Vikings chances in fantasy football every week. As always, using Norse Goddess Frigga’s inspiration and guidance, I will be checking back on this thread periodically to provide sit/start and trading or general roster advice in the comments section, should you wish to seek it. And others should feel free to chime in as well. Think of this as a weekly open thread dedicated to all things fantasy football. As a general rule, the stats provided here assume a standard 10-team league, such as those found at Yahoo! Sports or ESPN.

Why do you play fantasy football? When I think about this question I'm never really sure how to answer it. On the one hand, I really like looking at stats, and on the other hand there is a thrill in trying to guess which players will have big games...it's sort of a little like gambling in that respect. Except that it isn't considered gambling for legal purposes since it's a game of "skill." And there-in lies the hook for me. I devour NFL news every day, keep tabs on player statuses and injury reports, and track statistical usage on a weekly basis. It's fun for me to check out weekly target trends, catch rates, running back carries and matchups. Using rankings and cumulative projections as a guide, figuring out who to start and who to put on my bench is just a small thrill that makes it fun. Some weeks I look like a genius, and other weeks I look like a dope. But I relish the thrill of victory, especially when a risky call pans out. It's just fun, and fantasy football has given me a much greater appreciation for the NFL as a whole. Before fantasy football I cared only about the Vikings, the rest of the league be damned. But, I've learned a heck of a lot more about the NFL through all my research in fantasy football and I care about so many other games now that I never used to care about. Ultimately, it gives me something else to talk about with friends and co-workers, including some I might not hang out with much otherwise. We can all get together on Monday Night and enjoy the same game even if no one is a fan, because some of us are bound to have fantasy players involved. What about you? Why do you play?

So, this week our Minnesota Vikings are on the road again, this time traveling to Lambeau to take on the Packers. The Green Bay defense this year has not been great, and they've been a pretty soft matchup for fantasy purposes. They will of course be without Aaron Rodgers, but they have been banged up on defense all year. They will likely be without Casey Hayward, Johnny Jolly, Nick Perry and Sam Shields once again, although Clay Mathews and Ryan Pickett both look like they will play. This presents a pretty good opportunity for our offense to score some points and make the game at least competitive. We have our own injury issues to deal with though as Kyle Rudolph is still out, and John Sullivan hasn't passed his concussion tests yet. Greg Jennings is hopeful to play this week, but we all thought the same thing last week! With Ponder being named the starter once again, let's take a look at some cumulative projections for our Minnesota Vikings.

Christian Ponder	Passing Yards	TDs	INTs	Rush Yards	Rush TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	214	1	1	11	0	11
Yahoo!	207	1.2	0.8	18.7	0.2	13.83
CBS	235.3	1	1.3	22	0	14.4
Fleaflicker	225	1	2	15	0	13
Average	220.325	1.05	1.275	16.675	0.05	13.0575

Ponder was abysmal last week, putting up only 3 fantasy points before being benched in favor of Matt Cassel in the 4^th quarter. His three turnovers amounted to -6 fantasy points on what was already a below average day yardage-wise. While the Green Bay defense presents a much better matchup than Seattle, I still wouldn't touch Ponder with a 10-foot pole. He has not been very good in two career games in Lambeau, and even though the Packers are allowing an average of 17.6 points to the position, I still wouldn't feel comfortable with Ponder. The risk for interceptions and fumbles is much too great. While it's true he managed 14 fantasy points against Green Bay just a few weeks ago, most of that came on the ground. Since then he's thrown 4 picks and fumbled twice in the last 3 games, he is not a fantasy quarterback to rely on.

Frigga Says: Ponder shouldn't be anywhere near your lineup in Week 12.

Adrian Peterson	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	80	1	18	0	15
Yahoo!	92.3	1	18.3	0.1	17.26
CBS	88	1	18.7	0	15
Fleaflicker	98	1	0	0	16
Average	89.575	1	13.75	0.025	15.815

Peterson had a pretty bad game last week as he was dealing with a groin injury and facing one of the best defenses in the league. Still, he scored more points than Frank Gore, Trent Richardson, Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush, so it could have been worse I suppose. This week he gets a Packers defense that has allowed an average of 14.9 fantasy points to opposing running backs. This is technically below the league average, but they have been getting torched on the ground the last four weeks, giving up an average of 19.5, and Peterson scored 80 total yards and a score against them earlier this year. The groin injury could limit him some this week, but I expect similar production in round 2 (and so do the cumulative projections).

Frigga Says: If he plays, you always start him.

Greg Jennings	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	42	0	0	0	4
Yahoo!	42.6	0.3	0	0	6
CBS	30	0	0	0	3
Fleaflicker	61	0	0	0	6
Average	43.9	0.075	0	0	4.75

Jennings was a surprise scratch last week and didn't suit up against the Seahawks. He claims he's ready to go against his former team, but I'm not that optimistic. He only managed 1 catch for 9 yards the last time around and he's not 100% this week. The Packers do allow the 23^rd most fantasy points to wide receivers though: 24.1 points per week. So, the matchup is a good one. I just don't trust Ponder to get him the ball.

Frigga Says: Keep him on your waiver wire.

Jarius Wright	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	27	1	0	0	8
Yahoo!	22.6	0.1	0	0	5.78
CBS	40	0	0	0	4
Fleaflicker	56	0	0	0	5
Average	36.4	0.275	0	0	5.695

My reverse jinx of Jerome Simpson didn't work last week as not only did he fail to catch a touchdown, he only managed 1 measly little catch for 1 yard. Whoopidty Freaking Do! So sorry Jerome, you're being dropped from the projections (also because his cumulative point total for the week comes in at only 2 points). Meanwhile, Jarius Wright had another little coming out party with Greg Jennings inactive. He went off to the tune of 69 yards and 2 TDs. Wright has caught a pass in every game but 2 this season: 1 of them being the previous Green Bay game. It remains to be seen how the team will utilize their wide-outs this week, but with Simpson in the doghouse, Jennings not 100% and Patterson still trying to learn how to run routes, Wright might be the best option in the passing game. At the very least, he's got the highest cumulative projected total of any Vikings wide receiver this week, so he's got that going for him, which is nice.

Frigga Says: Wright is worth a speculative waiver claim, but only start him if you're desperate.

Cordarrelle Patterson	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	35	0	0	0	3
Yahoo!	36.6	0.2	1.3	0	5.78
CBS	39	0.3	0	0	4.2
Fleaflicker	34	0	0	0	3
Average	36.15	0.125	0.325	0	3.995

I put Patterson here for two reasons, despite his low cumulative projected total: he received the most targets of any receiving option last week with a total of 9, and his snap counts have never gone down from one week to the next. The Vikings seem committed to very slowly and gradually increasing Patterson's workload each and every week. In fact, last week with Jennings side-lined he saw a season high 45 snaps. I don't think Patterson will get much work though (perhaps even seeing his first decline in workload), especially if Jennings plays, but if Ponder can actually get the ball to him this week, there is some potential. Of the 6 targets Patterson didn't catch, 1 was an INT, one was a PI penalty and another was caught, just out of bounds. So his production could have been much, much better if his quarterback had been better. We'll see what happens in Lambeau this week.

Frigga Says: Keep Patterson on your bench, but snatch him up in dynasty leagues if you haven't already.

John Carlson	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	41	0	0	0	4
Yahoo!	42	0.3	0	0	5.82
CBS	60.3	0	0	0	6
Fleaflicker	65	1	0	0	13
Average	52.075	0.325	0	0	7.205

Carlson put up some pretty steady numbers last week catching 5 of his 7 targets for 69 yards. Green Bay allows an average of 7.7 fantasy points per game, so the cumulative projections here seem pretty much spot on.

Frigga Says: Feel free to start Carlson as a BYE week or injury replacement option, but there should be better starting options out there.

Fantasy Points	Vikings Defense/Special Teams	Blair Walsh
ESPN	0	11
Yahoo!	5.49	7.72
CBS	4	7.1
Fleaflicker	8	5
Average	4.3725	7.705

Hopefully you didn't have the Vikings D/ST last week as they scored in the negative, but Blair Walsh was worth a start hitting two field goals and a pair of extra points. Scott Tolzien just threw 3 picks to the Giants last week, including a pick-six giving the Giants D/ST 14 points. So there could be something in the matchup against the Packers 3rd string quarterback (or is he 2nd string now with Flynn assuming the role of 3rd string?). In any case, the Packers offensive line is still banged up a bit so there is added potential for some sacks too. I hate talking about kickers, so I won't. I think you could do better, but the projections look pretty good.

Frigga Says: Continue to find better options on the waiver wire if you can.

Fantasy Over Achiever/Under Achiever

Like always, each week I'm going to pick a non-obvious player that I think will significantly outscore and underscore their weekly average based on opportunity, matchup or both. Don't think of this as sit/start advice necessarily, but rather to upgrade or lower your expectations.

Last week I went 0 of 2 in my predictions. Scott Chandler was not able to take advantage of his cushy matchup, scoring only 4 fantasy points. Julius Thomas had a bit of a down week with only 49 receiving yards, but a touchdown early on during the 1^st quarter saved his fantasy day. It was under his weekly average, but only by 17%, not enough to qualify as "significant".

Overachiever: RB Chris Ogbonnaya, Cleveland

You remember the Browns, right? The team that traded Trent "I can't run anymore" Richardson to the Colts and signed Willis McGahee off the street to replace him has another running back on the roster that has started to see an uptick in usage: Chris Ogbonnaya. He racked up 99 total yards and a fumble on 14 touches last week against a banged up Cincinnati defense, and could be in line for more work this week. He faces a Steelers defense ranked 23^rd against the run in fantasy, allowing an average of 20 points to running backs, including 6 touchdowns the past 4 weeks. Ogbonnaya has averaged a mere 5.1 fantasy points per game this season, but I think he's a great candidate to significantly overachieve this week.

Underachiever: TE Jordan Cameron, Cleveland

I really hate to dip into the same team well twice with my picks, but this one is too good to pass up. Cameron's total season average is 9.9 fantasy points per game, however teams are finally starting to figure out that he's a go-to option in the Browns passing game. I watched him get double-teamed pretty much the entire game against the Bengals last week and he only managed 29 yards on 6 receptions as Jason Campbell could only get him the ball on short, dump-off passes. He was a non-factor in the red zone and stayed home to block. I really liked Cameron early in the year, and especially when Brian Hoyer took over. But that ship has sailed. Even worse, he faces the Steelers defense which is stingy against the tight end, allowing an average of 7.2 fantasy points per game. The fact that Cameron has only found the end zone once since week 5, and has had more than 64 receiving yards only once since week 4 has me souring on him as a reliable fantasy option going forward. He'll fall significantly short of his weekly average this week.

Last Week 0-2, Season So Far: 3-3