2014 Draft: Consensus Rankings v0.5

For those of you that have followed some of my fanposts over the years, you know that putting together consensus draft rankings is something that I've been very interested in over the past several years.  For those of you that are new to this, let me explain why it's so cool!  First off, most of the major online draft resources compile various "Big Boards" and positional rankings, but almost none of them are anywhere close to the same.  So it can be very difficult to gauge player value because of these vast differences.  What the consensus ranking attempts to do is to average together as many sources as possible in order to come to a...consensus.  In my opinion, most of the folks responsible for ranking all the college players have their own biases built in and they're all looking for slightly different things when they rank draft prospects.  But by averaging their rankings together, consensus can be drawn as the averaging process attempts to take all the variables into account (or at least, as many as is reasonably possible).  This year, I'll be averaging together 10 of the most popular online draft sources: NFL.com, ESPN, CBS, Drafttek, National Football Post, SB Nation, Draft Countdown, Walterfootball, Optimum Scouting and Scout on MSN.

Tomorrow is a big day as far as the draft is concerned, because it is the deadline for college players to officially declare for the draft.  The East-West Shrine Game, coming up this weekend, marks the first major pre-draft scouting event.  So this first iteration of the Consensus Draft Ranking is very much a preliminary ranking.  In some sense it only takes into account the information gleaned from the actual college season (and therefore, some of you may put the most stock into this ranking as it avoids all the pre-draft hype).  But players will rise and fall in the rankings from now until the draft in May as more information comes to light in various all-star games, the scouting combine, pro days and interviews.  So, I will release updated versions periodically from now until draft day.  This first version doesn't even get a full 1.0, because two of the major sources I like to use have not released a full "Big Board" ranking yet: NFL.com and National Football Post.  On top of that, several of the sources only list seniors, and some haven't been updated in months (I'm looking at you Dan Kadar of SB Nation).  So this is an incomplete version, and it's still very early in the draft scouting process.  But I felt it was important enough to release now as it will give us something to look back on in a few months once more of the online sources update their rankings.  And it gives us something to talk about now!

I have decided to break this up into positional groups that I feel are the biggest "needs" of the Minnesota Vikings.  Those position groups are (in no particular order): quarterback, defensive tackle, linebacker and cornerback.  A lot of the draft needs will depend on what kind of system the new defensive coordinator will install, as well as what the team does in free agency this March.  If we switch to a 3-4 scheme, then that will impact what kind of defensive tackles and linebackers we need, and the same is true if we stay with a 4-3 scheme.  So, these rankings will group all defensive tackles together, regardless of scheme fit.  However, I decided to break-up the linebackers into "inside" linebackers and "outside" linebackers, which will give us 5 total positional groups to look at.  I have included any player that appeared in the top 10 positional ranking of any particular source.  In other words, if a player was a top 10 guy at their position on at least one source, then they were included in the ranking.  So, let's get to it!

Quarterbacks

Player Name	School	Avg. Positional Rank	Avg. Overall Rank
1. Teddy Bridgewater	Louisville	1	4.5
2. Derek Carr	Fresno State	3.125	23.71429
3. Johnny Manziel	Texas A&M	3.2857143	17.66667
4. Blake Bortles	UCF	3.3333333	28
5. Zach Mettenberger	LSU	5.4285714	65
6. AJ McCarron	Alabama	6.375	64
7. Tajh Boyd	Clemson	6.875	54.66667
8. Jimmy Garoppolo	Eastern Illinois	7.5	94.75
9. Brett Smith	Wyoming	8.8	119.6667
10. David Fales	San Jose State	9.25	103.75
11. Stephen Morris	Miami (FL)	9.625	120.3333
12. Logan Thomas	Virginia Tech	9.75	123.2
13. Aaron Murray	Georgia	10.125	117.8333
14. Bryn Renner	North Carolina	15.428571	263.3333

According to the overall average ranking, there are only four QBs that garner a first round grade: Bridgewater, Carr, Manziel and Bortles.  And only Bridgewater would hold enough value to be drafted with the 8^th overall pick.  I fully expect the average overall rankings to change as QBs tend to get hyped up and slightly over-valued by the time the draft rolls around.  But right now, picking anyone but Bridgewater with the 8^th pick could be viewed as a slight reach.  Interestingly, while Tajh Boyd falls all the way to 7^th on the positional ranking, he is the only QB that garners a mid-second round grade (AJ McCarron technically gets the last 2^nd round spot).  This is not a very deep draft class as only 7 QBs have a grade in the first three rounds of the draft, and only 14 total quarterbacks were ranked 10^th or better among all sources' positional rankings.  Because of this lack of depth, it's possible that teams will reach a bit in the first round, especially those teams that are in desperate need of a quarterback.

In any case, the discrepancy between the positional ranks and the overall ranks can be explained by the fact that the sources are very inconsistent in how they handle their overall rankings.  Some sources only rank the "Top 100"; some only do 150 while others rank all the way into the 600 or 900 range.  And also, if one source is really high on a particular prospect (much more than the other sources) that will naturally raise the overall ranking average more dramatically than the positional ranking average.  For example, while Derek Carr just edges out Johnny Manziel in the positional rankings due to the fact that more sources have him ranked ahead of Manziel, Manziel beats Carr in the overall rankings mainly because those few sources that had Manziel ahead of Carr have him ahead by a larger margin.  Their average positional ranking is nearly identical anyway, and even Blake Bortles is not far behind.  If you're interested in the nitty-gritty of how each source ranked the prospects, just click the image below to embiggen the QB spreadsheet.

Defensive Tackles

Player Name and Position	School	Avg. Positional Rank	Avg. Overall Rank
1. Louis Nix III	Notre Dame	2	14
2. Ra'Shede Hageman	Minnesota	2.75	23.5
3. Stephen Tuitt DT/DE	Notre Dame	3.1428571	20.57143
4. Timmy Jernigan	Florida State	4.7142857	36.14286
5. Aaron Donald	Pittsburgh	6.1428571	44.85714
6. Ego Ferguson	LSU	6.5	49.83333
7. Will Sutton	Arizona State	6.5	49
8. Dominique Easley DT/DE	Florida	7.375	57.875
9. Anthony Johnson	LSU	7.4285714	58.71429
10. Daquan Jones	Penn State	8.875	67.5
11. Kelcy Quarles	South Carolina	9.4	73.4
12. Daniel McCullers	Tennessee	10.428571	87.28571
13. Taylor Hart DT/DE	Oregon	13	116.2
14. Calvin Barnett	Oklahoma St.	13.666667	107.75
15. DeAndre Coleman	California	13.8	115.75
16. Caraun Reid	Princeton	14	129.5
17. George Uko	USC	14.2	137.4
18. Demonte McAllister	Florida State	16	213.5

The defensive tackle position is much deeper than quarterback.  It's worth pointing out that it is also a bit more complicated as the ranking sources are very inconsistent in how the prospects are listed.  Some ranked these players as defensive tackles, while others listed them as defensive ends.  So players made the ranking as long as they were listed as a defensive tackle on at least one source, and I noted which players were listed as both and therefore could have positional flexibility.

While there isn't a ton of elite talent at the top of the list, there is a LOT of 2^nd round value to be had (6 players grade out as 2^nd round picks).  If we were to take the top prospect with the 8^th pick, it could be viewed as a little bit of a reach.  But taking Louis Nix III would not be too bad of a selection.  Assuming we don't trade our 2^nd round pick though, there is a lot of good value to be had in this draft in the 2^nd round and I would advocate taking a defensive tackle there if possible.  Click the image below to embiggen the defensive tackle spreadsheet.

Inside Linebackers

Player Name and Position	School	Avg. Positional Rank	Avg. Overall Rank
1. CJ Mosley ILB/OLB	Alabama	1	8.571429
2. Christian Jones ILB/OLB	Florida State	3	64.25
3. Shayne Skov ILB/OLB	Stanford	3.25	63.375
4. Yawin Smallwood ILB/OLB	Connecticut	4.2857143	79.28571
5. Telvin Smith ILB/OLB	Florida State	4.3333333	73.5
6. Chris Borland	Wisconsin	6	77
7. Max Bullough	Michigan St.	6.8571429	105.1667
8. Trey DePriest	Alabama	7.25	125
9. Lamin Barrow ILB/OLB	LSU	8.5714286	109.5
10. Andrew Jackson	Western Kentucky	9.7142857	131.4
11. Preston Brown	Louisville	11.333333	204
12. Greg Blair	Cincinatti	12.5	286
13. Glenn Carson	Penn State	13.333333	251
15. Avery Williamson	Kentucky	14	238.3333
16. DeDe Lattimore	South Florida	14.166667	217

Like defensive tackle, there was almost no consistency what-so-ever in the listing of inside vs outside linebacker among the many sources I consulted.  So those prospects with position flexibility are clearly labeled.  But right away something should jump out at you: there is CJ Mosely, and then not much else.  The depth for inside linebackers in this draft is terrible and there are only three players that garner a 1^st or 2^nd round grade: Mosely, Jones and Skov, and none of them are pure middle linebacker prospects.  All that said, CJ Mosely grades out perfect for us with the 8^th overall pick and could fill an important need for us as well at potentially both linebacker positions.  This would be a very interesting selection.  Click the image below to embiggen the inside linebacker spreadsheet.

Outside Linebackers

Player Name and Position	School	Avg. Positional Rank	Avg. Overall Rank
1. Anthony Barr	UCLA	1.25	4
2. Khalil Mack	Buffalo	2.375	11
3. CJ Mosley OLB/ILB	Alabama	2.8571429	8.428571
4. Trent Murphy OLB/DE	Stanford	4.7142857	24.85714
5. Ryan Shazier	Ohio State	5	28.28571
6. Vic Beasley OLB/DE	Clemson	6.4285714	35.28571
7. Kyle Van Noy	Brigham Young	6.75	36.875
8. Trevor Reilly OLB/DE	Utah	8	43.5
9. Christian Jones OLB/ILB	Florida State	9.25	64.25
10. Shayne Skov ILB/OLB	Stanford	10.125	63.375
11. Jeremiah Attaochu	Georgia Tech	10.571429	67.85714
12. Adrian Hubbard	Alabama	11.166667	80.5
13. Yawin Smallwood OLB/ILB	Connecticut	11.428571	79.28571
14. Telvin Smith OLB/ILB	Florida State	11.5	73.83333
15. Dee Ford OLB/DE	Auburn	12	77
16. DeMarcus Lawerence OLB/DE	Boise State	13.5	94

If the inside linebackers were confusing, the outside linebackers were even worse.  Not only do some players fit into an inside vs outside role, some fit into an outside vs defensive end role too, especially in a 3-4 scheme.  Again, I've noted when a player has position flexibility and those linebackers listed as a DE, would definitely be better picks if we were to make the switch to a 3-4 scheme.  But regardless, anyone here could potentially be drafted to fulfill some kind of outside linebacker role.  And it's possible the Vikings will need to fill two OLB positions this year if they part ways with Chad Greenway and his enormous cap hit, as well as Erin Henderson due to his legal issues.

But the good news is there are a lot more elite players at this position than any others so far with a whopping 10 players receiving a 1^st or 2^nd round grade, half of which are 1^st round grades.  We probably won't have a shot at Anthony Barr, but Khalil Mack would represent some decent value with the 8^th overall selection too.  CJ Mosely appears on the list again, but falls to #3 on the positional ranking as he's a slightly better fit at inside linebacker than outside linebacker and has more competition in the rankings.  We could also look for a player like Kyle Van Noy near the top of the 2^nd round too.  Outside linebacker is deep in this year's draft and the top 15 players at the position all grade out in the 3^rd round or better. Click the image below to embiggen the Outside Linebacker spreadsheet.

Cornerback

Player Name	School	Avg. Positional Rank	Avg. Overall Rank
1. Darqueze Dennard	Michigan St.	2.375	20.625
2. Justin Gilbert	Oklahoma St.	3.25	32.125
3. Jason Verrett	TCU	3.5	29.25
4. Bradley Roby	Ohio St.	4.2857143	39.57143
5. Marcus Roberson	Florida	5.3333333	38
6. Kyle Fuller	Virginia Tech	6	59.85714
7. Loucheiz Purifoy	Florida	6.6666667	58.2
8. Lamarcus Joyner	Florida St.	7	61.16667
9. Aaron Colvin	Oklahoma	8.375	77.625
10. Terrance Mitchell	Oregon	9	85
11. Deshazor Everett	Texas A&M	9.6666667	72
12. Keith McGill	Utah	11	92.75
13. E.J. Gaines	Missouri	12.571429	71
14. Vic Hampton	South Carolina	12.75	81.66667
15. Rashaad Reynolds	Oregon St.	16.25	139.25
16. Pierre Desir	Lindenwood	16.4	118.6667
17. Carrington Byndom	Texas	16.571429	154.4
18. Stanley Jean-Baptiste	Nebraska	17.4	155.5
19. Deion Belue	Alabama	19.5	125.3333
20. Andre Hal	Vanderbilt	20.666667	148.2

If you notice, there isn't much elite talent at the top of the rankings, but this is by far the longest and deepest of the positions.  A full 20 players appeared in the top 10 of at least 1 ranking source and the vast majority grade out in the 4^th round or better.  Based on the overall value of this position in the draft, we would be wise to avoid drafting a cornerback with the 8^th overall selection as there wouldn't be much value in doing so.  But waiting and grabbing a corner at the top of the 2^nd or even 3^rd round would get us a solid prospect.  Based on what I see here, I think we're better off trying to get a starting caliber cornerback in free agency, because there just isn't a sure-fire Top 10 overall talent in this draft class.  Click the image below to embiggen the Cornerback spreadsheet.

Overall there were other positions I considered including in this article, like guard, defensive end, and even safety.  We need a lot of help on the defensive side of the ball.  But I decided to focus in on DT, LB and CB for now.  I assume we'll resign either Everson Griffen or Jared Allen and be just fine at defensive end, and I can live with our current roster of safeties for another season.  I do think we need an upgrade at guard, and if one of the positions above is addressed in free agency, then I'll swap in the guard position later on but generally speaking the offensive line was a strength of the team last year and upgrading the guard position is more of a luxury pick in my opinion.

Tackling the Draft

So armed with this new consensus information, how should the Vikings attack the draft?  Well, there are multiple angles to take, but in trying to line up our draft picks with the best value (and assuming any prospect with an overall ranking higher than our draft pick is taken), I would probably approach it this way:

Value Half-Mock

Round 1, pick #8: ILB C.J. Mosley, Alabama (8.5 overall grade)
Round 2, pick #40: QB Tahj Boyd, Clemson (54.6 overall grade)
Round 3, pick #72: DT Daniel McCullers, Tennessee (87.3 overall grade)
Round 3, pick #92 (ish): CB Keith McGill, Utah (92.75 overall grade)
Rounds 4-7: Best Player Available

I know the Manziel Zealots will hate this approach, and it's possible I waited too long to address cornerback and defensive tackle.  But, assuming we can keep Matt Cassel in the fold and have him start most of the 2014 season (if not all of it) that will let Tahj Boyd (a poor man's Teddy Bridgewater who also compares to Russell Wilson) develop and not be rushed into action.  I really love getting a potential "quarterback of the defense" in C.J. Mosley with the #8 pick.  While some may think Audie Cole and/or Michael Mauti are ready to take up the middle linebacker torch, I'm not so sure.

So, for those who are in the "draft a QB in the 1^st round or bust" mentality, here is another mock...following largely the same principle as above, but sacrificing a bit of value in the 1^st round to address a glaring need.

Needs Half-Mock

Round 1, pick #8: QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M (17.7 overall grade)
Round 2, pick #40: CB Bradley Roby, Ohio State (39.6 overall grade)
Round 3, pick #72: ILB Telvin Smith, Florida State (73.5 overall grade)
Round 3, pick #96 (ish): DT Calvin Barnett, Oklahoma State (107.8 overall grade)
Rounds 4-7: Best Player Available

Again, taking Manziel #8 would be a bit of a reach based on his average overall ranking, and we're missing out on a bit of value with our late 3^rd round pick as well.  But getting Bradley Roby in the 2^nd and Telvin Smith in the 3^rd would be great consolation prizes.  And just because this exercise is fun, here's another half-mock with yet another possibility:

Random Half-Mock

Round 1, pick #8: DT Louis Nix III, Notre Dame (14 overall grade)
Round 2, pick #40: CB Bradley Roby, Ohio State (39.6 overall grade)
Round 3, pick #72: LB Telvin Smith, Florida State (73.5 overall grade)
Round 3, pick #96 (ish): QB David Fales, San Jose State (103.8 overall grade)
Rounds 4-7: Best Player Available

There are so many different position orders to explore and they would all net us good value, but the hardest draft slot to get right is the first one, at #8.  The interesting thing is that based on the average overall rankings of these "need positions" there are really only 4-5 players that would represent good value AND address a severe team need with the #8 pick: Teddy Bridgewater, CJ Mosely, Anthony Barr, Khalil Mack, and maybe Louis Nix III.  Everyone else is arguably a "reach" based on these preliminary cumulative rankings, and of those five names there's a very good chance that all of them are gone by the time we pick.  In short, at this very early stage, I really don't like our draft position relative to our team needs.  I think it would be wise to either trade up for a talent like Teddy Bridgewater, or trade down to acquire more picks and get better value at a lower position.

In any case there will be many potential mock drafts between now and May 8^th and the rankings will change dramatically between now and then.  But the point of this kind of exercise is to encourage draftniks to seek out alternative scouting reports.  Take a look at other rankings and see what lots of different folks are saying about these prospects.  Just because one source is down on a particular player doesn't mean much.  If multiple sources are down on a player, then that carries a bit more weight, and if all of the sources are down on a player then that is very likely the truth.  So be sure to check back often for updated versions of the Consensus Ranking, and with each update I'll include how far each player has risen or fallen compared to the last version.  I'll be providing an update after the Senior Bowl as most of the major sources will have a lot more information after the next couple weeks' worth of college All Star games.  There will also be an update following the Scouting Combine in February, and then another update a few weeks prior to the draft.  So stay tuned!