Frigga's Fantasy Football Fridays: Week 13, Turkey Hangover Edition

If you're like me, then your stomach is feeling the after effects of cramming too much turkey, mashed potatoes, stuffing and all manner of pies into it.  Yesterday was a wonderful day of feasting, football and spending time with family.  I'm certainly thankful to be at a point in my life where I can simply sit back and enjoy all that.  And while Thanksgiving is technically over, there is still enough of a turkey hangover to consider the question: what are you thankful for in fantasy football?  I'm thankful that all of my first round draft picks have panned out for me in various fantasy redraft leagues: Matt Forte (drafted him in 3 of my 6 redraft leagues), Jamaal Charles (2 of my 6 redraft leagues), and Drew Brees.  It's always the worst when your 1^st round pick ends up a bust, and since I put a lot of my eggs into the same basket, I'm extra thankful it worked out for me.

While the Vikings weren't able to pull off a win last week, from a fantasy football perspective they far exceeded expectations.  Bridgewater performed like a bona-fide fantasy starter and both Greg Jennings and Charles Johnson put up starters points as well.  This week the Vikings get another "plus" matchup as the Carolina Panthers come to town.  The Panthers defense is how-shall-we-say...not good.  They are ranked 19^th or worse against every fantasy position except tight end (where they are ranked 12^th).  The Panthers allow 21.7 points per game to running backs, 18.4 points to quarterbacks, 25.6 points to wide receivers and 8 points to kickers.  They only allow an average of 6.7 points to tight ends, but otherwise this is a defense that just gives away fantasy points most every week.  They tend to be a little stingier at home than on the road, so that bodes well for our Vikings. What follows are the Fantasypros consensus projections for Week 13, which take into account 7 different sources including CBS, ESPN and Pro Football Focus among others.  It's worth pointing out that the "Season Average" stat is their average fantasy points per start (or game where they played the majority of the snaps).

Teddy Bridgewater scored 19 standard fantasy points last week, his second highest total of the year and the third time he's gone over 16 fantasy points this year.  He put up over 200 passing yards and got his first multi-touchdown performance as a pro; and against the 13^th best fantasy defense in points allowed to quarterbacks to boot.  It's worth pointing out that all three of his best fantasy outputs have been in home games against Atlanta, Washington and Green Bay (none of them power-house defenses).  So it bodes well for his fantasy prospects that he gets another bad defense at home with the Carolina Panthers.  At this point in the season, with BYE weeks finished, there is no reason to start Bridgewater in standard leagues (unless you're absolutely desperate), but he makes for a sneaky, under-the-radar start in 2-quarterback leagues or super deep leagues.  For example, in a standard league I'd much rather start the following guys over Bridgewater (who might be available in your league): Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger or Andy Dalton.  But I would start Bridgewater ahead of these guys: Kyle Orton, Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez and Josh McCown.

All the hand-wringing about how Ben Tate might impact Jerick Mckinnon's fantasy value last week was all for naught, because he didn't play a single snap.  I would imagine that he might find a role in the offense eventually, but he'll need to learn the playbook and prove that he can execute in practice first.  In the meantime, Mckinnon should continue to start, although his fantasy results leave something to be desired.  It's not because of a lack of talent, but more due to lack of opportunity.  He has averaged only 13 carries the past 4 weeks combined as Norv Turner continues to lean on the passing game.  When you factor in that his back injury has limited his practice reps, and the fact that his lack of carries has resulted in an average of only 6 fantasy points per game over the past 4 weeks, I have a hard time recommending him for a fantasy start.  Yes, he has a fantastic matchup this week, but he has also had fantastic matchups the past 4 weeks in a row and has failed to produce.  I would look elsewhere if possible.

Charles Johnson has really impressed me the past 2 weeks, and I hope he continues to gain chemistry with Bridgewater and can build on his production going forward.  He's certainly being projected like a #1 wide receiver, so expectations are high for him this week.  We'll see if he can deliver in a great matchup.  If you ignore the Chicago game where Jennings injured his ribs and missed about 30% of the offensive snaps, he's had some excellent games the past 5 weeks.   He is averaging 8 fantasy points per game as he has put up either 70+ yards or a touchdown in those non-Chicago games.  He could be worth a flex play this week.  As I said last week, it's well past time to cut Cordarrelle Patterson.  He saw his snaps trimmed significantly last week (even before his injury), and other than the Tampa Bay game (which is looking more and more like a fluke), he hasn't put up more than 4 catches or 61 receiving yards in a game this year.  He's banged up obviously (and didn't practice Wednesday), but even without the injury there is just no way I'd have Patterson anywhere near a fantasy roster.

Kyle Rudolph seems to be getting healthy after playing almost all of the 69 offensive snaps last week and catching 3 passes for 50 yards.  Chase Ford and Rhett Ellison were still in the mix though, catching a combined 3 passes for 24 yards last week, although they weren't on the field nearly as much (30 snaps for Ellison and only 6 for Ford).  This isn't a great matchup for Rudolph, but he seems to have reclaimed his full-time starter role.  If it were me, I'd wait another week in "wait and see mode" before starting Rudolph, because he'll have a tasty matchup next week against the Jets.

Blair Walsh had another excellent outing hitting 2 of 2 field goals, including another 50+ yarder and tacked on an extra point for 9 fantasy points.  He has jumped up to 14^th overall in fantasy points among kickers.  With Carolina's poor defense, he should have plenty of opportunities.  It looks like it will be pretty cold on Sunday, which could limit his chances for long field goals with a dead ball, but as a Viking fan you've got to start him up!  If you took my advice and avoided the Vikings D/ST last week, then you dodged a bullet as they scored a big fat 0.  That was the 2^nd week in a row of poor fantasy production for our D/ST unit, but this week they should rebound.  I would expect a couple sacks for our team as our defensive line looks over-matched against the Panther's weak offensive line.  I also expect Cam Newton to struggle on the road against a top 10 passing defense, so there is a very good chance for an interception.  Start ‘em up!

So, after 12 weeks I am now 56-40 overall in my 8 fantasy leagues, missing out on what would have been my second perfect 8-0 fantasy week of the year by 1.1 points (I lost 90-91 in my work league).  As always here are the updated standings for the 6-team DN Writers League.  My little win streak has increased to 3 games, but I'm still stuck in 4^th place.  This is the last week of the regular season in our league, and I would say that 2^nd place is still up for grabs, but it's really not.  I face off against Fearless Leader, while Eric faces off against Arif (leaving Mark to take on Kyle).  I think it's pretty much a given that Eric will notch a win against Arif, while Mark should be able to beat Kyle easily.  It would appear that Chris and I are fighting for the 3^rd place seed, and it's entirely possible that we'll see each other again next week in the first round of the playoffs regardless of the results of the game this week.

Lastly, if Fantasy advice is what you seek, look no further.  I've stopped keeping track of the accuracy of Frigga's advice, but just know I tend to be slightly better than a 50/50 shot in the dark...slightly.  In any case, post your questions below in the comments section and Frigga's inspiration and wisdom shall be yours.