NFL Draft 2014: Quarterbacks, Round Selected, And Success Rate

We all know the Vikings need a quarterback in the 2014 NFL Draft.  We all hope they get a guy that's a long term answer to a problem that has plagued this franchise, for the most part, since the retirement of St. Francis of Bloomington in 1978.

The only disagreement we seem to have is (well, besides who they should take) is what round they should pick said quarterback.  We've seen a lot of great stuff done on who is going to be good and who might be a bust. I've also seen and read that where in a draft a QB is selected matters, but not any hard analysis, just anecdotal stuff.

Are there great QB's that have come out of the sixth round, besides Tom Brady? Heck, what about the other rounds besides the first? Let's find out.

First off, Chris Tomassen over at the Pioneer Press let's us know that the Vikings have a pretty good history with quarterbacks taken after the first round.  Nine of the 15 Viking QB's that have gone on to the Pro Bowl were post-first round guys, for example. And while that's all well and good, the NFL is vastly different than when guys like Brad Johnson and Fran Tarkenton were drafted, and I think success needs to be looked at through a prism that has a more recent history.

I'm going as far back as the 2006 NFL Draft, for a couple reasons.  That was the draft where the Vikings selected Tarvaris Jackson in the second round, and that's far enough back to determine success or failure with a lot of these guys. There are also A LOT of QB's that are selected, and I don't want to overwhelm you with data.  So let's break this down, year by year.

NOTE: I'm going to stop after the 2012 draft, because I feel two years worth of play is enough to at least get trends on guys, one year really isn't.

2006:

Round	Player	Team	College
1	Vince Young	Titans	Texas
1	Matt Leinart	Cardinals	USC
1	Jay Cutler	Broncos	Vanderbilt
2	Kellen Clemens	Jets	Oregon
2	Tarvaris Jackson	Vikings	Alabama State
3	Charlie Whitehurst	Chargers	Clemson
3	Brodie Croyle	Chiefs	Alabama
5	Ingle Martin	Packers	Furman
5	Omar Jacobs	Steelers	Bowling Green
6	Reggie McNeal	Bengals	Texas A&M
6	Bruce Gradkowski	Buccaneers	Toledo
7	D.J. Shockley	Falcons	Georgia

This was the draft where the Vikings grabbed Jackson, and he obviously didn't pan out.  Of the three first rounders, only Jay Cutler had any modicum of success, and Vince Young is back in the NFL after a two year hiatus.  Looking past that, the only other name that jumps out at me, besides Jackson, is former sixth rounder Gradkowski, and maybe Charlie Whitehurst.  They've been backups and spot starters, but quality starters? No, although Jackson did start a 2008 playoff game for the Vikings...after he was benched and his replacement, Gus Frerotte, was injured late in the year.

2007:

Round	Player	Team	College
1	JaMarcus Russell	Raiders	Louisiana State
1	Brady Quinn	Browns	Notre Dame
2	Kevin Kolb	Eagles	Houston
2	John Beck	Dolphins	Brigham Young
2	Drew Stanton	Lions	Michigan State
3	Trent Edwards	Bills	Stanford
4	Isaiah Stanback	Cowboys	Washington
5	Jeff Rowe	Bengals	Nevada
5	Troy Smith	Ravens	Ohio State
6	Jordan Palmer	Redskins	Texas-El Paso
7	Tyler Thigpen	Vikings	Coastal Carolina

If anything, 2007 is a cautionary tale on quarterbacks.  Both first rounders were monumental busts, and second rounder Kevin Kolb, who looked promising early on, has also been a bust. Trent Edwards was a guy a lot of people liked as a third round steal...bust.

2008:

Round	Player	Team	College
1	Matt Ryan	Falcons	Boston College
1	Joe Flacco	Ravens	Delaware
2	Brian Brohm	Packers	Louisville
2	Chad Henne	Dolphins	Michigan
3	Kevin O'Connell	Patriots	San Diego State
5	John David Booty	Vikings	USC
5	Dennis Dixon	Steelers	Oregon
5	Josh Johnson	Buccaneers	San Diego
5	Erik Ainge	Jets	Tennessee
6	Colt Brennan	Redskins	Hawaii
6	Andre' Woodson	Giants	Kentucky
7	Matt Flynn	Packers	Louisiana State
7	Alex Brink	Texans	Washington State

If '07 was a QB cautionary tale for first round QB's, '08 was the opposite. Matt Ryan has been very good for the Falcons, and Joe Flacco won the Super Bowl a couple seasons ago for the Ravens.  But after that? Chad Henne is 18-32 as a starter for Miami and Jacksonville.  That's it.  Oh, wait...MATT FLYNN RAWR RAWR RAWR.  The same Matt Flynn that's played two good games in his career, and parlayed that into a fat bank account courtesy of three teams.

2009:

Round	Player	Team	College
1	Matthew Stafford	Lions	Georgia
1	Mark Sanchez	Jets	USC
1	Josh Freeman	Buccaneers	Kansas State
2	Pat White	Dolphins	West Virginia
4	Stephen McGee	Cowboys	Texas A&M
5	Rhett Bomar	Giants	Sam Houston State
5	Nate Davis	49ers	Ball State
6	Tom Brandstater	Broncos	Fresno State
6	Mike Teel	Seahawks	Rutgers
6	Keith Null	Rams	West Texas A&M
6	Curtis Painter	Colts	Purdue
7	Julian Edelman	Patriots	Kent State

Of this class, once again the track record is spotty with first round guys, much less later rounds.  I like Matthew Stafford, although he's starting to get some flak for not winning a playoff game.  Considering Detroit's dearth of playoff appearances before he got there, even getting the Lions to the post-season is a heck of an accomplishment. Mark Sanchez rode the 'game manager with a great defense' magic carpet for a couple years, but then descended into 'Butt Fumble' status, and Josh Freeman.  Oh..Josh Freeman. One really good season, and then his career unraveled in the Meadowlands with the Vikings last year.  As for the rest of the guys, Julian Edelman has been pretty good...as a running back and wide receiver.

2010:

Round	Player	Team	College
1	Sam Bradford	Rams	Oklahoma
1	Tim Tebow	Broncos	Florida
2	Jimmy Clausen	Panthers	Notre Dame
3	Colt McCoy	Browns	Texas
4	Mike Kafka	Eagles	Northwestern
5	John Skelton	Cardinals	Fordham
5	Jonathan Crompton	Chargers	Tennessee
6	Rusty Smith	Titans	Florida Atlantic
6	Dan LeFevour	Bears	Central Michigan
6	Joe Webb	Vikings	Alabama-Birmingham
6	Tony Pike	Panthers	Cincinnati
7	Levi Brown	Bills	Troy
7	Sean Canfield	Saints	Oregon State
7	Zac Robinson	Patriots	Oklahoma State

Bradford has been okay, Tebow is out of the NFL. Jimmy Clausen, who a lot of people thought was going to be a good player, has been a monumental bust. Colt McCoy has started a bit, but is 6-15 as a starter.  Joe Webb...we've talked about plenty...but is the only guy to start a playoff game from this group other than Tebow.

2011:

Round	Player	Team	School
1	Cam Newton	Panthers	Auburn
1	Jake Locker	Titans	Washington
1	Blaine Gabbert	Jaguars	Missouri
1	Christian Ponder	Vikings	Florida State
2	Andy Dalton	Bengals	Texas Christian
2	Colin Kaepernick	49ers	Nevada
3	Ryan Mallett	Patriots	Arkansas
5	Ricky Stanzi	Chiefs	Iowa
5	T.J. Yates	Texans	North Carolina
5	Nathan Enderle	Bears	Idaho
6	Tyrod Taylor	Ravens	Virginia Tech
7	Greg McElroy	Jets	Alabama
3 (S)	Terrelle Pryor	Raiders	Ohio State

This draft, right here, is why I'm writing this post. Thanks, Ponder.  Cam Newton took the Panthers to the playoffs, and he's become one of the better QB's in the NFL.  Locker, Gabbert, and Ponder have been busts to this point, yet this draft we find some second round success with Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick.  Both guys have taken previously bad teams to the post season, and Kaep almost won a Super Bowl two seasons ago. Of all the classes we've looked at so far, this is the only one where we've seen success generated from quarterbacks drafted past the first round.

2012:

1	Andrew Luck	Colts	Stanford
1	Robert Griffin III	Redskins	Baylor
1	Ryan Tannehill	Dolphins	Texas A&M
1	Brandon Weeden	Browns	Oklahoma State
2	Brock Osweiler	Broncos	Arizona State
3	Russell Wilson	Seahawks	Wisconsin
3	Nick Foles	Eagles	Arizona
4	Kirk Cousins	Redskins	Michigan State
6	Ryan Lindley	Cardinals	San Diego State
7	B.J. Coleman	Packers	Tennessee-Chattanooga
7	Chandler Harnish	Colts	Northern Illinois

This is the draft trifecta of Luck, RG III, and Russell Wilson, and the best QB class of all the ones we've looked at.  Both Luck and Griffin took their teams to the playoffs as rookies, Wilson just won a Super Bowl, and as a result they've shifted the thought process of the entire NFL.  Brandon Weedon has been horribad, but Ryan Tannehill looks like he might pan out.  He hasn't been bad, and has gone 7-9 and 8-8 as a starter.  He needs to cut down on his interceptions, but he's still got a lot more upside than downside, and improved substantially between year one and year two.  Nick Foles took over for the Eagles and lit the NFL up and took the Eagles to the playoffs. His 27/2 TD to INT ratio is ridiculous and damn impressive, but I'd like to see if Chip Kelly's offense will be a long term thing in the NFL.  It was great last year, but I still have my doubts about it long term.

So what does this data tell us?  In short, with the exception of 2011 and 2012, the chances of a team finding a long term answer at quarterback is almost slim to none.  But why has the uptick in talent extended into the second and third rounds recently? You can make one of two arguments, I think.  One is that those classes had a lot of deep QB talent and the ones previously didn't.  You could also argue that colleges are going to more sophisticated passing offenses, or are producing dual threat QB's that NFL defenses haven't caught up with yet.

This year, most experts are saying that the 2014 Draft class has a lot of talent at quarterback, and a good one can be found in the second or even third round.

Maybe, maybe not.  All I know is what I see.  And what I see is that since 2006, 66 quarterbacks by my count have been selected after the first round.  Of those 66, six have started playoff games, and two of them were because of injury to the starter (Webb and Jackson, ironically enough).  And four of them have come in the last two classes we looked at, 2011 and 2012.  So maybe we've turned a corner in being able to get good quarterback play from guys past the first round, as real recent history suggests that might be the case, if not semi-recent history.

Only time will tell.