Frigga's Fantasy Football: Vikings 2014 Draft Guide

Routine.  It's the best word that defines what I do as a professional trumpet player and teacher.  As a performer, my livelihood depends on my consistency and physical skills of playing a musical instrument.  And I can't develop that consistency and skill without a regular practice routine.  I practice for about 1-2 hours per day, six days a week, and do the same kind of warm-up/routine exercises during every practice session.  That kind of discipline and routine is what keeps me employed and playing at a high level.

What does routine have to do with fantasy football?  Well, everything.  In fantasy football we are looking for players that can consistently produce on the field week in, and week out.  We are looking for the guys that treat their Sunday performance as routine.  Peyton Manning routinely makes defenses look silly.  Adrian Peterson runs rough-shod over opposing defensive lines like it's another day at the office.  Human beings generally like routine and we are looking for that kind of consistency every week when we set our fantasy lineups.  This comprehensive Fantasy Draft Guide (inspired by Norse goddess Frigga!) will help you discover which players on the Vikings team can deliver that routinely good performance every week.  I'm going to break down every angle of average draft position, full season projections and how you can secure your coveted Vikings players while still maintaining a competitive team.  As a general note, this draft guide assumes re-draft, 10 or 12 team leagues with standard scoring so keep that in mind when evaluating the statistics. We'll go player-by-player for each fantasy relevant performer on our Minnesota Vikings team, starting off with the quarterbacks.

Quarterback Matt Cassel

Cassel will likely open the season as the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings, and to this point he's earned it.  Cassel's veteran experience has given him a leg up in the quarterback competition as his confidence and leadership was evident throughout the offseason and training camp.  He's had three pretty efficient games in the Preseason with a combined passer rating of 103.3 and 9.8 yards per attempt.  His worst performance against Kansas City was still a league average day in terms of efficiency (78.6 passer rating).  Let's hope that level of confidence and efficient performance can continue into the regular season when the team will open up the playbook and face the full complement of defensive players and plays as well.

Unfortunately for Matt Cassel, nobody is drafting him.  According to Fantasy Pros, as of this writing his current Average Draft Position (ADP) was: "not applicable."  In other words, he is not even registering on the draft meter, and in fact Teddy Bridgewater (who I'll discuss in a second) IS actually ranked, meaning most fantasy drafters either aren't paying attention, or assume that Bridgewater will become a starter over Cassel at some point.  I think anything is possible, but as long as Matt Cassel is winning and playing well, he'll continue to be the starter, and I would not hesitate to spend a late round flier on him as your backup QB (especially for Viking homers).  Here are Cassel's projected season stats for 2014 from a range of popular "expert" sources:

Matt Cassel	Passing Yards	Passing TDs	Interceptions	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	1702	11	8	102	1	106
Yahoo!	2239	12.8	8.9	98.8	0.4	139.6
CBS	775	4	3	31.5	0	39
FantasyPros	1222.4	7.6	5.8	55.5	0.2	72.4
Average	1484.6	8.9	6.4	72.0	0.4	89.3

ESPN is essentially projecting Cassel for an identical statistical year in 2014 as he had in 2013...one in which he started only 6 games and played sparingly in 3 others.  With a new coaching staff, new scheme and added competition at the QB position to push him (and with him projected as the starter at the beginning of the year) I think this is mistake on the part of ESPN.  In addition, CBS and FantasyPros are basically betting that Cassel starts a few games to open the season before Bridgewater takes over.  While it's true that Bridgewater could eventually become the starter at any point (especially if the team is losing), to project Cassel for essentially 4-6 games with the same stat line as what he was able to achieve in Bill Musgrave's offense last year is just wrong.  I expect Cassel to see a pretty big uptick in his performance as long as he's the starter.  Keep in mind that Norv Turner's offense made Brian Hoyer look like Tom Brady before his knee injury (and so far Hoyer is back to looking like Hoyer without Turner around), and even Jason Campbell looked like a serviceable fantasy player last year in limited action with Turner.  Matt Cassel is at least as talented as Hoyer and Campbell.  In short, with more competent coaches and a better scheme than last year, and a year where he has been preparing to be the starter all off-season, Matt Cassel should be a better fantasy contributor in 2014 than he was in 2013.  Here's a fun fact: Matt Cassel averaged 13.4 points per game in the final 5 games of the year where he had at least 27 attempts each game in Musgrave's offense.  If you think he will do better than last year, would you feel comfortable drafting a backup QB who will average at least 14-16 points per game?  I sure would.

Frigga's Bold Prediction: Matt Cassel starts at least 8 games in 2014 and is a top 15 fantasy QB during at least the first 4 weeks of the season.

Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy Bridgewater's prospects in fantasy football are the most unknown of any Vikings player.  He has been in competition with Matt Cassel all off-season and training camp, but so far he has been unable to beat the 9-year veteran.  Many believe it's not a question of if Teddy Bridgewater will start in 2014, but when.  I'm not so sure I would agree.  I think the thing that will matter most is if the Vikings are winning games with Matt Cassel playing well as their starting quarterback.  So far, that has been the case in the Preseason, and I see it being true for at least the short-term.  In any case, as of this writing Bridgewater had a FantasyPros consensus ADP of 220 overall and is the 27^th ranked quarterback in fantasy, making him not really draftable in standard 10 or 12 team leagues.  In anything but a dynasty league, I wouldn't draft him either.  But keep him on your free agent radar if Cassel starts to perform poorly at any point in the season.  Here are the "expert" stat projections for Bridgewater:

Teddy Bridgewater	Passing Yards	Passing TDs	Interceptions	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	1,550	10	7	61	1	98
Yahoo!	1,749	9.9	6.9	87.1	0.7	111.3
CBS	3,246.5	21	11	190	2	246
FantasyPros	2,516.9	15.8	9.4	144	1.4	163.9
Average	2265.6	14.2	8.6	120.5	1.3	154.8

CBS is the only source I looked at projecting Bridgewater for something close to a full season of stats.  I find ESPN's projection kind of perplexing since they projected Cassel for so few points as well.  If you assume that Cassel and Bridgewater are the only starters all year, their combined ESPN projections are something along the lines of: 3,252 passing yards, 21 TDs and 15 INTs.  Minnesota's QBs combined for the following stat line in Musgrave's offense last year: 3,645 passing yards, 18 TDs and 19 INTs.  In other words, ESPN is literally projecting Cassel and Bridgewater to do to worse than the Voltron-esque Minnesota QB of 2013 in terms of passing yards, and only slightly better in TD/INT ratio. That would be pretty dreadful end of the year statistics for any starting quarterback and it seems obvious that ESPN is not expecting Norv Turner to have much of an effect on the Vikings quarterbacks compared to last year (again, BIG MISTAKE ESPN!).

Frigga's Bold Prediction: Teddy Bridgewater starts fewer than 4 games in 2014, with the exception of injury replacement.

Running Back Adrian Peterson

Here are some scary facts for you.  In 2013, Peterson had the 2^nd fewest rushing yards and rushing touchdowns of his career, and that includes his shortened 2011 season.  He also had the 2^nd lowest yards per carry total of his career, and 3^rd lowest receptions and receiving yards last year as well.  Peterson turned 29 years old this past offseason, the year typically associated with a regression in fantasy performance at the running back position.  In a vacuum, logic would tell us to avoid taking a 29-year old running back who is coming off his 2^nd worst career year, and who has missed 7 games over the course of the last 4 seasons.

But logic doesn't apply to Adrian Peterson.  This is a guy who is the best running back in the NFL, and who will be looked at as one of the all-time greats at his position.  This is a player who takes impeccable care of his body and trains at elite levels.  He has otherworldly healing powers and has earned the nickname "cyborg" time and time again.  If you're going to bet that any player can overcome a statistical probability for decline, this is the player to bet on.  Even better, he has Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator this year, and Turner's scheme has produced some of the best running back performances in NFL history.  Adrian Peterson is fully healthy to start the year and won't see any Preseason action (meaning he'll start the year totally fresh), so enjoy what could be one of the last few elite fantasy seasons we will likely get from him.  His ADP is #2 overall, tied with Jamaal Charles and behind only LeSean McCoy.  Unless you have one of the top overall picks in your fantasy draft, it will be difficult to secure Adrian Peterson for fantasy purposes.  So, let's take a look at what the so-called experts have in store for Peterson this year.

Adrian Peterson	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	1,365	13	289	2	250
Yahoo!	1,265	10.5	377	1.4	230.03
CBS	1,367.5	10.5	288.5	1.5	217
FantasyPros	1,378.7	11.1	286.1	1.5	237.1
Average	1344.1	11.3	310.2	1.6	233.5

No source is expecting a return to his dominant 2008 or 2012 seasons where he ran for 1,760 and 2,097 yards respectively.  They are all pegging him for something closer to his 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2013 seasons where he averaged a consistent 1,322 yards.  2009 aside, he has scored between 10-12 rushing touchdowns every year, and his projections are right on par with his career numbers.  But his receiving yards represent the biggest uptick compared to his career averages.  Over the course of his 7-year career, Peterson has tallied, at most, 436 receiving yards and at worst 125 yards, but has averaged only 242 yards.  Every source expects a receiving total that is better than his career average, which makes sense with Norv Turner now running the show and his propensity to get running backs the ball in space via short passing.  I think Peterson's projections are right on the mark, and barring injury Peterson should continue to have another productive and reliable fantasy year.

Frigga's Bold Prediction: Adrian Peterson scores at least 3 receiving touchdowns in 2014, which would be a career high.

Wide Receiver Greg Jennings

If there is a single "forgotten man" in the Vikings offense, I don't know a better candidate than Greg Jennings.  An 8-year veteran, the 30-year old Greg Jennings had a somewhat disappointing first year with the Vikings.  He missed one game due to an Achilles injury last year, but otherwise averaged over 70 yards per game when Matt Cassel attempted at least 27 passes in those same games.  Just like I expect an uptick in production from Cassel with Norv Turner, I expect a similar uptick from Jennings.  It's clear that Cassel and Jennings formed a bond last year when they both came in as veteran free agents, and their chemistry last year was pretty clear as Jennings only averaged 52 yards per game with other QBs.  Jennings will get work at every receiving position in Turner's new offense, and was clearly the smoothest and most polished receiver I witnessed at training camp.  While Patterson (who is discussed below) is getting all the hype, don't overlook Greg Jennings as a valuable backup and bye-week fill-in at a minimum and potential flex-play if things pan out the way I think they will.

Jennings current ADP is criminally low at 154 overall and the 52^nd ranked wide receiver in fantasy.  Do you think guys like DeAndre Hopkins and Justin Hunter will outscore Greg Jennings?  They didn't last year, and yet both are ranked higher than Jennings this year.  Jennings can be drafted in the 13^th-15^th rounds of 10 or 12 team standard drafts, but I expect him to perform much better than that.  As a late round flier, I'm all aboard Greg Jennings this year.  Those of you in leagues filled with a bunch of Vikings fans may have to reach just a little bit to get him on your team, but I'm ok with that.  Let's see what the experts think.

Greg Jennings	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	752	4	0	0	99
Yahoo!	912	4.8	0	0	119.5
CBS	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	<95
FantasyPros	700.6	4.3	0	0	94.9
Average	788.2	4.4	0.0	0.0	104.5

Well, the projections aren't much better than his ADP ranking.  And it doesn't make any logical sense either.  With the Vikings circus at QB last season, and Jennings still able to come up with over 840 yards despite missing a game with injury, how can 2 of the 4 sources project him to actually do worse in 2014 now that we have a more stable QB situation and a much better coaching staff and offensive scheme?  ESPN is essentially expecting a repeat of 2013 for Jennings.  I believe we'll see an uptick in performance for Jennings, and of all the projections, Yahoo! seems to be the most accurate to me.  CBS only projected their top 50 wide receivers, with their lowest ranked receiver projected for 95 fantasy points, so they are clearly the lowest in terms of projected points, but it's unclear just how low they are on Jennings since he didn't make their cut.  This is simply a case where I think the national media are missing the boat and don't have as intimate an understanding of the Vikings players as we fans do.  Here's another fun fact for you: Through three preseason games, Greg Jennings has received only 1 less passing target than Cordarrelle Patterson.  Granted, Patterson has been able to do a lot more statistical damage with is targets than Jennings, but Jennings would be looking a lot better if not for a drop and stepping out of bounds on a deep catch.  I like Jennings more in a PPR league, but he can still be useful as a backup/bye week fill-in for standard leagues.

Frigga's Bold Prediction: Greg Jennings leads all Vikings receivers in reception totals for the 2^nd straight year.

Wide Receiver Cordarrelle Patterson

No Vikings player has been hyped up more this off-season than Cordarrelle Patterson.  And it's for good reason too.  Patterson started off his rookie year pretty slow, getting less than half of the offensive snaps during the first half of the year.  But by game 11, he finally started getting more than 50% of the offensive snaps and he averaged 12 fantasy points per game during that time-frame.  His fantasy totals were boosted significantly by scoring six total touchdowns and averaging 26 rushing yards per game over those final 5 games. He was essentially the Percy Harvin replacement in Musgrave's offense last year where he lined up all over the field.  So, I can certainly understand the hype from a fantasy perspective.  It seems that everyone is on board with Patterson this year as his ADP is 50^th overall and the 20^th ranked wide receiver.  You should be able to get Patterson in round 4-5 of standard 10-12 team leagues.

But is it possible that Patterson is being hyped too much?  He's being drafted, essentially, as a #2 WR right now, and I'm not sure he can live up to those expectations in fantasy football.  At the end of the year last year, Patterson had mustered only 469 total receiving yards and 4 total receiving touchdowns.  He scored double digit fantasy points in only 4 games last year and topped 100 yards receiving only once, which is an incredibly small sample size.  Nobody is talking about how Patterson only averaged 45 receiving yards per game during the final 5 games, and if you ignore his one massive game 13 outburst of 141 yards, that average drops significantly to a pathetic 26.4 receiving yards per game. And it's not that he was being targeted significantly less than Jennings during that time frame.  Over the last 6 games of the year, Patterson was targeted 40 times while Jennings was targeted 47 times.

Fantasy projections that expect Patterson to essentially "continue" what he did to finish 2013 will be disappointed.  Patterson will not be featured in quite the same "swiss-army-knife" way in Turner's new offense.  Yes, Patterson will get some rushes this season, but they will be primarily on reverses and not so much of him lining up in the backfield like last year (fun fact: through three preseason games Patterson has 0 rushes for 0 yards).  So far this Preseason, we have seen Patterson line-up to receive only one kickoff return (and it was booted out of the endzone for a touchback).  There have been reports out of camp that Patterson may only be used on kickoffs sparingly or in key situations to save him for his receiver duties.  This change of offensive scheme will have a huge impact on the ways the Vikings use Cordarrelle Patterson.  My guess is that Norv Turner likely wants Patterson to be the big, dominant, Vincent Jackson/Josh Gordon/Michael Irvin type that can contest for deep balls down the sideline in 1-on-1 scenarios, rather than as an "all-purpose weapon".  We've seen Patterson haul in a 47-yarder against the Raiders and a 52-yarder against the Chiefs, but he also missed a deep shot opportunity against the Cardinals.  He's also gotten some short-dump off passes with opportunities for yards after the catch, and I think that will be primarily how he'll be utilized this off-season: screens, deep bombs, slants and the like.  In short, he'll probably be very boom/bust depending on if he can connect on those deep shots, and if he doesn't he'll leave you in the dark.  Let's see what the experts think:

Cordarrelle Patterson	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	814	7	104	1	137
Yahoo!	933	6.2	69.7	0.3	142.1
CBS	947	6.5	183	1.5	146
FantasyPros	928.8	6.7	115.5	1	150.6
Average	905.7	6.6	118.1	1.0	143.9

Well, they all think Patterson will be the #1 receiver for the Vikings this year, and collect the most yards and touchdowns of any receiver on the team.  It could certainly happen and based on what we've seen in the Preseason I expect him to have some really big games.  But notice, none of the projections have him over 1,000 yards receiving and none have him for more than 7 TDs.  In terms of fantasy football, Patterson is not being projected as a #1 guy that you can rely on week in and week out.  He'll be more of a #3 WR to put in your flex that will probably win your game for you those few weeks he goes off.  Here are some names I expect to be more reliable than Patterson, and who are currently being drafted later than him: Julian Edelman, Emmanuel Sanders and Marques Colston.

Frigga's Bold Prediction: Patterson will collect the most yards from scrimmage of any Vikings receiver, but will not have the most receptions.

Tight End Kyle Rudolph

If there is any Vikings player that stands to benefit the most from a change of scheme to Turner's offense, it is Kyle Rudolph.  The tight end position has thrived under Norv Turner in recent years, from Vernon Davis in San Fran, to Antonio Gates in San Diego to Jordan Cameron in Cleveland.  They all saw a significant uptick in statistical production with Norv Turner.  There is further evidence that Turner plans to make heavy use of Rudolph in the fact that Rudolph lost some weight during this past off-season to improve his speed as a receiver down the field.  And through 3 preseason games, Rudolph has the most receiving yards of any Vikings player (granted some of that can be attributed to broken coverage on a 51-yard TD play), and the 2^nd most receptions on the team (although he's tied with Patterson for the most passing targets).  All early signs point to Rudolph having perhaps his best year in purple and he should be one of the top options in the Vikings passing attack.

Sadly, most fantasy drafters haven't bought the hype quite yet.  He's currently being drafted 86^th overall as the 10^th ranked tight end in fantasy.  In other words he's being drafted as a low end starter that can be had in the 7^th-8^th rounds of 10 or 12 team standard league drafts (team owners in Vikings fan leagues will need to reach a round or two earlier of course).  In general, fantasy players would rather draft Jordan Cameron (with no Turner) or Jordan Reed (injury concerns and all) over Kyle Rudolph.  While I am an admitted Viking homer, there's no way I would draft Cameron or Reed over Rudolph.  Let's check out his statistical projections:

Kyle Rudolph	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Fantasy Points
ESPN	576	8	0	0	105
Yahoo!	725	4.6	0	0	99.6
CBS	727.5	7	0	0	107
FantasyPros	688.7	7	0	0	110.9
Average	679.3	6.7	0.0	0.0	105.6

The good news is every source is projecting Kyle Rudolph to have the most receiving yards of his career in 2014.  The difficult thing about projecting Rudolph is that he's really only had 1 full season as the primary starter: 2012, and his QB play and offensive scheme that year were dreadful.  He amassed 493 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns that season en-route to 103 fantasy points.  Most projections have him meeting that same fantasy total, albeit with slightly more yards and slightly less touchdowns.  But if you take a look at last season (with the same scheme and arguably worse QB play as 2012) he was on pace for 636 receiving yards and 6 TDs, or what would have been 99.6 fantasy points.  This would have been an improvement in the yards department compared to 2012, and a regression to the mean in TDs.  I think it's much smarter to use his 2013 16-game projection as a starting point, rather than 2012.  And if you do that, you can see that ESPN actually projects a regression in yards, and FantasyPros projects status quo for yards and an extra TD, while Yahoo! and CBS are projecting only minimal gains.  I expect significant gains under Norv Turner and I think all of these projections are too low.  I would draft Rudolph with confidence.

Frigga's Bold Prediction: Kyle Rudolph has at least 800 receiving yards and 6 TDs in 2014 for at least 116 fantasy points on the year.

Vikings Defense/Special Teams

It's nearly impossible to predict which fantasy defenses will do well in a given season.  There is almost no consistency from one year to the next.  While the Vikings have had a pretty bad "real life" defense the past four years, their fantasy defense has ranked 20^th, 13^th, 19^th and 22^nd during that same time frame.  I expect their real life defense to be significantly better in 2014 than it has in the past, but it remains to be seen how that might translate into fantasy football.

The Vikings D/ST current ADP is 243^rd overall and as the 26^th ranked Defense.  One of the question marks I have for this unit is how the team will handle Patterson on kickoff returns.  As I mentioned above, it seems that they might not be willing to throw him back there every time, and part of the allure of owning this defense/special teams unit is the fact that they scored three touchdowns last year with Patterson and Sherels.  In any case, I would not advise drafting them this year unless you are a Vikings homer and you absolutely gotta have them on your roster (which I can certainly respect!).  Here are their ranks from the experts:

Vikings D/ST	Fantasy Points	Rank
ESPN	81	29th
Yahoo!	93.5	26th
CBS	152	14th
FantasyPros	n/a	25th
Average	n/a	24th

Different websites score fantasy defense/special teams differently so it's difficult to compare the season point projections fairly.  I've included their overall projection rank as well as a means to provide context to the point total, and it paints a pretty grim picture for our defense for fantasy.  That said; take it all with a grain of salt, because as I said above projecting fantasy defenses is extremely difficult to do.

Frigga's Bold Prediction: The Vikings Special Teams unit fails to score a TD in 2014.

Kicker Blair Walsh

Blair Walsh had a phenomenal rookie year, finishing as the 4^th best kicker in fantasy football.  Like what happens with all kickers in fantasy, he was not able to maintain the same level of play from one year to the next and finished ranked 15^th last year.  It's anyone's guess how he does in 2014, although I will say that his kicks have looked a little off-target so far this year and he will be playing home games outdoors at TCF Bank Stadium for the first time, which can have a negative impact.  I would not expect Walsh to finish in the top 10, but anything is possible.

Most people are expecting a performance that is something between his 2012 and 2013 performances, with his ADP set at 175 overall and as the 10^th best kicker on the board.  He's being drafted in the last round or two of fantasy drafts...right where a kicker should be drafted.  Don't be tempted to pay a premium for Gostowski or Prater (who was just suspended for the first 4 games), who are going nearly 8 rounds earlier.  There's no guarantee that they repeat as top 10 kickers.  And since I'm talking about kickers, I ran across a very compelling fantasy strategy regarding kickers this offseason that I thought I'd share with you.  It is essentially: draft the kicker that is on the same team as your starting quarterback.  For example, if you have Matt Cassel and he fails to connect in the end zone, who benefits the most? Blair Walsh.  Drafting the kicker of your quarterback will give you insurance.  Generally speaking your QB should be your highest scoring fantasy player week in and week out, and kicker scoring is generally variable and unreliable.  But if you pair up the kicker and quarterback, at least you'll give your QB an insurance policy so that presumably when they have a bad game, your kicker should have an awesome one to act as a counter-balance.  It's a strategy worth trying out.  Granted, you generally will want to do that with more high-octane offenses that get in the red zone a lot, because a bad offense that can't move the ball won't even get their kicker into scoring range either.  So, be smart with your kicker picks!  Let's see what the experts have in store for Blair Walsh:

Blair Walsh	Fantasy Points	Rank
ESPN	147	9th
Yahoo!	140.8	8th
CBS	112.5	21st
FantasyPros	118.1	14th
Average	129.6	13th

The projections and rankings for Blair Walsh are all over the map, as expected.  That said his averages paint him out to be almost a low-end starter, but not quite.  Generally speaking you should not draft backup kickers, but with these projections you can safely draft Blair Walsh in the late rounds and re-evaluate after a few weeks.  I know all you Vikings homers out there will draft him anyway, and that appears to be an ok choice for now.

So, in closing I'll provide you with one final table.  This is the "Draft Round Target" table based on the ADP of each Vikings player, and for each type of league.  I've got 10 and 12 team standard scoring leagues listed here, along with "Vikings Fan" leagues, and regular leagues...because you'll have to pay a premium to draft a Vikings player in a league filled with a bunch of Vikings fans.  Hopefully you've found this information useful and good luck in your fantasy drafts.  May all your picks end up as studs.

Fantasy Draft Rounds to Target Vikings Players
Player	10-Team General	10-Team Viking Fan	12-Team General	12-Team Viking Fan
QB Matt Cassel	14	12	14	12
QB Teddy Bridgewater	n/a or 15	13	n/a or 15	13
RB Adrian Peterson	1	1	1	1
WR Greg Jennings	15	13	13	11
WR Cordarrelle Patterson	5	4	4	3
TE Kyle Rudolph	8	7	7	6
Vikings D/ST	n/a or 16	14	n/a or 16	14
K Blair Walsh	17	15	17	15