Frigga's Fantasy Football Fridays: Week 3

After last week's article all about optimism, I have to laugh out loud about how ridiculous that sounds now.  It's amazing how quickly things have turned from a season of hope, to what could be described as a season of inevitable, soul-crushing ineptitude.  I'd love to have some kind of "theme" this week, but due to a distinct lack of enthusiasm, I'll be treating this in the most Joe Friday way I can: just the facts ma'am.

The Vikings travel to New Orleans this week to face the Saints on the road in the vaunted Super Dome.  One could talk all about the Vikings need for revenge for 2009, or discuss the former Saints players who have joined Purple since that fateful year, like Remi Ayodele or Tom Johnson.  But no, let's just stick to the facts.  After 2 weeks, we still don't quite have enough information on each NFL team to tell the story of their offense or defense trends, but the picture is getting clearer.  Last year the Saints allowed the 4^th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs (allowing an average of only 14.2 points per game).  But this year, after their defense lost some key starters, the Saints have slipped to allowing the MOST fantasy points to QBs through the first two weeks (21.8 points per game).   This could bode well for Matt Cassel if he can figure out what color jerseys his teammates are wearing.  Last year the Saints also had a strong run defense, allowing the 10^th fewest fantasy points to opposing runners (16.5 points per game), but again, their defense looks like it has taken a step backwards as it is currently allows the 7^th most points per game through the first two weeks of 2014 (25.4 points per game).  This could bode well for Matt Asiata and company.  Things look just as enticing for the Vikings WR and TE as the Saints are allowing massive points to them as well.  The Saints have faced one strong offense in Atlanta, and one weak offense in Cleveland so far this year so there is some hope here that the Vikings could put up some fantasy points, even in garbage time, against the Saints.  It remains to be seen if these first two weeks are an aberration and the Saints will return to having a dominant defense for fantasy purposes, or if they will continue to represent a good matchup.  I suppose they are 0-2 after all.

There were not a lot of fantasy points to be had last week for our Minnesota Vikings, outside of Matt Asiata (who scored most of his points on a single play).  Never-the-less, I'll break it all down for you anyway using Fantasypros projections for week 3, which take into account 6 different sources, including ESPN, CBS, and Pro Football Focus (among others) in their consensus:

One of the biggest questions for fantasy owners is: what should I do with Adrian Peterson and Matt Asiata?  Well, if you have the luxury of an IR spot, or have a deep enough bench (more than 5 spots deep) it would probably be wise to hold onto Peterson until at least Oct. 8^th (his first court date) until you get a better sense of how his legal situation might unfold.  But if you don't have that luxury, then dropping him is a safe move.   At a minimum he will miss 3 games (the amount of time until his court date), and at a maximum he will miss the rest of this year and maybe more.  I think the odds that he returns to the field this year are low, but anything is possible.  So if you have the room to stash him for awhile, then do it.  Otherwise look for a replacement.  If you were a Peterson owner and are looking for more long-term options that might still be on your waiver wire, look no further than Bernard Pierce, Ahmad Bradshaw or Shonne Greene who are all backs getting heavy workloads and who should be in line for a lionshare of the work this year.  In the short term, check out Khiry Robinson against our Vikings, Danny Woodhead out in San Diego, or Knile Davis who are all filling in while the starters ahead of them nurse injuries.

As for Matt Asiata, I think last week's fantasy total of 14+ is about as good as can be expected.  Last season when he filled in for Peterson (and Gerhart), he was kind of a mixed bag.  He had one great game, and two kind of so-so ones.  As a pure runner, he was pretty dreadful last week, averaging only 2.8 yards per carry.  But he was involved in the passing game as Cassel dumped off to him 5 times, and he rumbled down the field for a long receiving touchdown on another dump-off pass.  All told he accumulated 84 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.  So, he will be involved in the offense.  He reminds me a little of a poor man's Mike Tolbert when Tolbert was in San Diego with Norv Turner.  Tolbert was a big, plodding fullback (like Asiata) who had great hands and was an asset in the passing game and around the goal line.  I don't think Asiata is as athletically gifted as Tolbert, but in 2010 and 2011 Tolbert received a lot of work in the San Diego offense averaging just over 10 fantasy points per game.  I think that's a best-case expectation for Asiata.  I would not expect him to get you 20+ points with regularity like Peterson, but the volume and workload should be there for consistent double-digit carries and something like 7-10 fantasy points per week as long as he remains the starter.  But don't take my word for it, check out this incredibly detailed breakdown of Matt Asiata's college production and what that could mean for his NFL production.

Matt Cassel had a terrible game last week.  If you missed it from Arif on twitter, Cassel's passer rating would have actually improved slightly if had simply not completed a single pass while also not throwing any interceptions.  It was bad.  Aside from the picks though, he was right on projection in yards and TDs.  If Cassel can improve his decision making and remember to avoid throwing it to the guys in Gold and Black this week, he could have a bounce-back game.  This is Mr. Inconsistent 2.0 (he has stolen that title from Ponder IMO) and he's already had one good game and one bad one.  Perhaps the wheel of inconsistency will continue and offer up a good game this week.  Who knows.  As you'll see below, I'm actually not that optimistic this week for the Vikings passing attack despite the good matchup on paper for Cassel.

At this point, it is a crap-shoot with the Vikings receivers.  Like I mentioned above, they have a great matchup.  Jennings had a great game week 1, but followed that up with 1 catch for 4 yards on 4 targets in week 2 against a strong New England secondary led by the mythical Darrelle Revis.  The targets through the first two weeks have been pretty evenly split between Patterson and Rudolph (both tied at 12 targets each) and Jennings (11 targets).  There doesn't seem to be a "favorite" target emerging yet, although these three are clearly the only options in the passing game that are worth having on a fantasy roster.  Aside from these three guys, no other receiver or tight end has more than 3 targets.  Unfortunately, with only three viable receiving targets, opposing defenses should find it easy to shut down the Vikings passing attack.

For what it's worth, Kyle Rudolph has been the most consistent scorer in fantasy through the first two weeks.  While he's not the highest scoring player on the team by any means, he's got a pretty high floor.  Whether it's catching 5 passes, or scoring a touchdown, his production so far has been reliable.  It's only a matter of time before he puts it all together and has a break-out game for 70+ yards and a score.  I don't think that it will happen this week as the Saints have only allowed 6.25 points to tight ends through the first two weeks, but it will happen sooner rather than later.

After a dominating performance against the Rams, the Vikings D/ST fell back to earth recording only one sack, and allowing 30 points (although that was generally because of the short field they had to defend after Cassel threw 4 interceptions).  Still, I would not feel comfortable starting them against Drew Brees and the high-octane Saints offense.  Blair Walsh did not have many opportunities last week, and his only field goal attempt was blocked.  If you started Cassel and Walsh together hoping one would act as insurance for the other, well that strategy kind of falls apart when your QB throws so many picks.

In any case, after two weeks I am now 9-7 overall in my 8 fantasy leagues after a couple of heart-breaking losses.  I don't know about you but I was hit pretty hard by the injury bug.  I had the following guys scattered throughout my teams who all went out in the first quarter of their games: Jamaal Charles, A.J. Green, and Ryan Mathews among others.   As I have mentioned before, one of those leagues happens to be the Daily Norseman Writers Only 6-team league!  Just like every week, here are the updated standings for that league (for the record, I was robbed out of a win thanks to 9 of my players falling short of projections and losing to Kyle by less than 8 points):

Lastly, if Fantasy advice is what you seek, look no further.  Last week, Frigga offered 11 more bits of sit/start advice in the comments for week 2 and was a little bit more accurate than last week, getting 59% of the sit/start calls right.  That increases the season total of 21 bits of advice to 55% accurate.  Frigga is only slightly better than a 50-50 guess so far this year through the first two weeks, although hopefully that accuracy improves as we learn more about each team.  Never-the-less, post your questions below in the comments section and Frigga's wisdom shall be yours.