Frigga's Fantasy Football Fridays: Week 4

Here we are with three weeks completed into the 2014 NFL season.  And you know what that means?  Trends are emerging!  Just as it takes at least three numbers to determine the mathematical pattern in a series of numbers, we can begin to see patterns and trends emerging in the NFL statistical landscape after the first three weeks.  What kinds of trends are we seeing with our Minnesota Vikings?  Well, here are some fun facts for you:

Offensive Facts

• Minnesota ranks 29^th in Yards/Game with 273 (leader is the Falcons with 455)
• Minnesota ranks 30^th in Plays/Game with 172 (leader is the Redskins with 220)
• Minnesota ranks 28^th in Points/Game with 16.7 (leader is the Falcons with 34.3)
• Minnesota ranks 27^th in Time of Possession at 27:43 (leader is the Lions at 34:59)
• Minnesota ranks 31^st in Passing Yards/Game at 173.7 (leader is the Falcons at 333.7)
• Minnesota ranks 24^th in Rushing Yards/Game at 99.3 (leader is the Steelers at 163.3)

Defensive Facts

• Minnesota ranks 11^th in Yards Allowed/Game with 335.3 (leader is Lions at 244.3)
• Minnesota ranks 16^th in Plays Allowed/Game with 190 (leader is the Rams at 161)
• Minnesota ranks 9^th in Points Allowed/Game with 18.7 (leader is the Bengals at 11)
• Minnesota ranks 25^th in Time/Possession at 32:17 (leader is the Lions with 25:01)
• Minnesota ranks 13^th in Passing Yards Allowed at 225.3 (leader is Patriots at 168.7)
• Minnesota ranks 8^th in Rush Average Allowed at 3.6 yds/carry (leader is Lions at 2.8)

What do these trends and rankings tell us?  Well it tells us that we have had a pretty anemic offense compared to the rest of the league, ranked near the bottom in every efficiency statistic that matters.  We have also faced three pretty good defenses though, and this week we'll be down four starters on offense compared to week 1.  Our offense could find it pretty tough to get things going once again.  On the upside, Atlanta's defense hasn't been great, so perhaps the Vikings can break these early season offensive trends and outperform their rankings.  On the other hand, our defense looks decent, despite losing the Time of Possession battle pretty significantly.  I can't help but wonder if these high rankings are partly skewed due to us facing quarterbacks Shaun Hill and Austin Davis in week 1, and what was a mostly dysfunctional Rams offense.  I would expect our defensive rankings to slip a little bit as the season goes on.  But this team has done a near 180-swap compared to last year.  Last year we had a top 15 offense and a bottom of the barrel defense, and so far we have pretty much the opposite.  I would say that Mike Zimmer has been leaving his mark on the defense.  Norv Turner's offense is a complicated one that takes time and a lot of patience/timing to learn, and that will only be compounded as we keep losing starters each and every week, not to mention the loss of former MVP Adrian Peterson.

So, what does this mean for fantasy football when the Vikings take on the Atlanta Falcons?  Well, hopefully good things for the Vikings players!  Atlanta is a plus matchup for our running backs and receivers as the Falcons are ranked 30^th and 19^th respectively, allowing 25 fantasy points to opposing runners and 20 points to opposing receivers.  However, against quarterbacks and tight ends they are a bit stingier, ranked 9^th and 8^th best against each respectively.  The Falcons only allow an average of 12.7 points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks and 4.7 to opposing tight ends.  It feels like the Vikings will be starting an unusually high number of 2^nd stringers at the major skill positions (Bridgewater, Asiata and Rhett Ellison), but I'll break it all down for you anyway.  So, without further ado, let's take a look at the Fantasypros projections for week 4, which take into account 6 different sources, including ESPN, CBS, and Pro Football Focus (among others) in their consensus:

The burning question is (and has been): How's Teddy Look?  Err...how's he going to look?  That's a tough one to predict.  The fantasy prognosticators don't expect him to do any better than Matt Cassel, and I think that's a safe bet in the short term.  From what little I saw at Training Camp, and then in the Preseason, Teddy looked to be the equal of Matt Cassel.  They were nearly twins in throwing drills at training camp, and he arguably performed on par with Cassel in the Preseason.  So, projecting Bridgewater for a nearly identical kind of stat line as Cassel in the first two weeks of the year is probably about right.  That said there are over 40 passing yards missing from the combined list of receiving yards compared to Bridgewater's projected passing yards.   So, either one of the pass catchers above is under projected...or perhaps there is a missing player (which I'll discuss below).

Before we get to that missing player, let's talk about Matt Asiata.  He gets to face a Falcons defense that is terrible defending the run.  How bad are they?  Well, the Saints dropped 119 rushing yards on them with a mix of Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas.  The Bengals dropped 164 yards on them with Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill.  Granted, the Bucs could only muster 45 rushing yards against the Falcons...but come on...it's the Bucs.  They had no-namers like Bobby Rainey and Mike James trying to run the ball behind a terrible offensive line.  Oh crap...that sort of sounds like us with Matt Asiata and an o-line that lost Fusco for the year.  Well, I would expect something between what the Bucs and Saints managed.  So, Asiata's projection of 60 rushing yards sounds about right.  He'll get plenty of looks in the passing game though, and should pad those rushing yards nicely for his standard "80-yards-from-scrimmage-with-a-very-good-chance-to-score" stat line.  Asiata is the perfect FLEX play, or even low end #2 RB with a bunch of guys on BYE this week.

At receiver, I had my doubts about Patterson being much more than a #3/FLEX play with boom/bust potential, and so far I've been proven right.  Unfortunately with Peterson out, defenses are able to double-team Patterson to take him out of the game-plan.  Hopefully Turner can manufacture some more touches for Patterson as he seems to be touching the ball far less frequently than he should.  At this point, Greg Jennings has received just a few more passing targets than Patterson on the year.  But with this anemic offense there just isn't enough production to make any Vikings receiver worth starting.  Still, the Falcons have allowed a healthy total to opposing receivers, so if you're willing to give Patterson another chance this week, go for it in the FLEX.  Jennings is just too much of a risk in anything other than the deepest of leagues.

So, do you remember that missing player I hinted at above?  That missing player is tight end Chase Ford.  He's not really registering on the fantasy radar right now as I think most analysts assume he's on the IR or something.  He was dealing with a broken foot during training camp, but he's fully healed and back practicing with the team as a full member of the roster.  In fact, Fantasypros has recent free agent signing (and former QB) Marquis Gray projected for the same fantasy total as Rhett Ellison (and both more than Chase Ford).  I fully expect Ellison to retain his blocking "H-Back" role in the offense with Chase Ford taking over the pass catching role with Rudolph on short-term IR.  This is what happened last year, and Chase Ford filled in admirably.  I would be shocked to see anything other than that scenario again this year as Norv Turner spoke about how important Ford was to the roster during camp.  The fact is, Ellison was only projected for 2.1 points this week anyway, pretty much on par with his season production thus far.  It's worth mentioning that I overheard Norv Turner berating Rhett Ellison for his route-running while I was covering training camp saying, "You always do that!", which to me implies that perhaps Turner doesn't really trust Rhett Ellison as a primary pass catching tight end.  And he's not really built that way anyway.  So, remember those missing 40 passing yards from Bridgewater?  We might as well set those aside for Chase Ford.  That doesn't mean I think he's worth a start, but keep your eye on which tight end emerges in Rudolph's absence over the next couple of weeks.

Last week Blair Walsh was the highest scoring Viking player in fantasy (which is never good), putting up 10 points going 3 of 3 on field goals, including one from 40+ yards.  But, kickers don't tend to do well against the Falcons and his 0 point day back in week 2 still looms large in my mind.  So I'd be sitting both Blair Walsh and the Vikings D/ST this week.  Blair is only ranked 15^th in the consensus projections (7.8 points) and the Vikings D/ST is facing one of the most prolific offenses in the league this year.  They are ranked 24^th out of 26 this week.  Ick.

So, after three weeks I am now 13-11 overall in my 8 fantasy leagues.  As always here are the updated standings for the 6-team DN Writers League (as you can see in the most frustrating fashion, I have the 3^rd most points, yet sit in 4^th):

Lastly, if Fantasy advice is what you seek, look no further.  Last week, Frigga offered 6 more bits of sit/start advice for week 3 and continued increasing my accuracy, getting 67% of the sit/start calls right.  That increases the season total of 27 bits of advice to 59% accurate.  Post your questions below in the comments section and Frigga's wisdom shall be yours.