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Frigga Fantasy Football Friday: Week 7 vs DET

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The Daily Norseman breaks down the statistical production of the Vikings as they take on the Lions in week seven.

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Stefon Diggs was the highest scoring player in fantasy last week with 12.9 standard points.
Stefon Diggs was the highest scoring player in fantasy last week with 12.9 standard points.
Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

This week, I hate to say it, but I'm phoning it in.  Work has been insanely busy, and I'm surprised I even found a couple hours to sit down and crank this week's article out!  But no matter, the Vikings face Detroit for the second time this season, and like Buffy the Vampire Slayer, let's wrangle the troops for another song and dance.  We'll battle Detroit, Once more, With feeling.

Detroit's defense is terrible in every way.  They rank 21st or worse against every single position in fantasy football, and that includes D/ST and Kickers.  Clean all the things! Start all the Vikings!

Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Projections for Week 7

Vikings Player

Rush Att.

Rush Yds

Rush TDs

Rec.

Rec. Yds

Rec TDs

Pass Yds

Pass TDs

Pass INTs

Total Points

Per Game

Average

QB Teddy Bridgewater

3.3

16.1

0.1

n/a

n/a

n/a

227.4

1.2

0.9

14.0

11.1

RB Adrian Peterson

21.2

88.2

0.7

2.5

18.7

0.1

n/a

n/a

n/a

15.1

13.6

WR Mike Wallace

0.0

0.2

0.0

4.2

56.2

0.5

n/a

n/a

n/a

8.5

6.3

WR Stefon Diggs

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.9

48.5

0.2

n/a

n/a

n/a

6.0

10.8

TE Kyle Rudolph

n/a

n/a

n/a

3.1

32.1

0.2

n/a

n/a

n/a

4.5

4.7


As it turns out, Bridgewater's yardage and TD projection was pretty much spot on last week, meaning he should have nearly met his projection of 15 points.  But a pair of interceptions and some kneel-downs killed his prospects.  I expected better things from Teddy against a very week Kansas City defense.  He's got another juicy matchup this week and it's worth pointing out that he had his best fantasy week of the year so far in Week 2 against Detroit.  He's on the road this time, but if you're looking for a desperation dart due to injuries and BYE weeks, there are a lot worse options than Teddy this week.  If he can keep the interceptions at bay, he could pan out.  I picked him up in a league where I have Tyrod Taylor and Ben Roethlisberger as an emergency option (and as of Thursday night, it's looking like I'm going to need him).

My first impression of Peterson from last week is shock and surprise.  The game script was perfect for Peterson to have a dominant game, because the Vikings held a lead most of the game and Peterson got fed with 27 total touches.  At first blush I was scratching my head why it panned out so poorly with him being completely neutralized.  I think we underestimated the Kansas City defense, and overestimated how much of an impact our depleted offensive line would have.  According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings are ranked 18th overall in Adjusted Line Yards, 22nd in stuff percentage and 19th in "2nd level yards".  On the flipside, Kansas City is ranked 5th in adjusted line yards allowed, 6th in power blocking, and 3rd in stuffs.  In hindsight it was a terrible matchup in the trenches for us.  In general, there just aren't a lot of holes being opened up in the run game, and we saw this earlier in the season too.  That said, Peterson had a great game against Detroit back in Week 2, and the Detroit defensive line is just middle of the pack against the run, so the matchup should be much better.  I expect a bounce-back game for Peterson this week.

Well that marks two games in a row for Stefon Diggs, how about that?  I tweeted out right before the game to get him in your DFS lineups with Charles Johnson ruled out, and he paid off, especially in PPR leagues because he caught 7 passes.  He failed to find the end-zone again, but Diggs has looked like the real deal, both against one of the best pass defenses in the league, and one of the worst.  We'll have to see how the snaps and targets get distributed this week with the likely return of Charles Johnson, but I have a feeling that Diggs will continue to see a heavy amount of snaps and targets after two dominant performances.  It's worth pointing out though that Mike Wallace is still heavily involved in the passing game, getting the same number of targets last week as Stefon Diggs.  Unfortunately he only pulled down only 2 of 9 targets for 23 yards.  I wouldn't have the stones to start either receiver this week, but if you're in a tight spot with BYE weeks or injuries, feel free to roll the dice on either one in a great matchup.  If I had to pick one, I'd take Diggs for the upside, but truthfully I don't like either one all that much.  Neither is projected for more than 6-8 fantasy points.

Even with the touchdown catch last week, Rudolph got you 6.9 points...not even enough to reach your goal of 7 for the position in a standard league.  Rudolph is not worth starting.  He hasn't caught more than 5 passes and 53 yards in a single game.  While he does seem to get some red zone targets and has a pair of touchdowns, his only value is in those fluky scores.  He did score in week 2 against Detroit, but there's no guarantee he will again.  I'm staying away, even in a good matchup where he landed 9 fantasy points in Week 2.

I like the Vikings D/ST this season, although I'd lower expectations on the road against a Detroit offense that might be getting it's groove back.  Shariff Floyd is questionable to play as well, so monitor that.  I think Tom Johnson is not much of a drop-off from Floyd, but it will hurt their usual rotation on the D-line if Floyd is out.  Shamar Stephen also just went on IR, so those are lots of reasons to be wary of them.  Thanks to a bunch of turnovers in week 2 (2 fumbles and a pick) the Vikings D/ST scored 8 fantasy points against Detroit, so there is a decent floor here, but if you have better options I'd consider using them.  Chances are you don't, so start them with low expectations.

It's onto to my league-wide picks!  I like to highlight one player that I think will outscore their consensus projection by giving them the "Well Played" designation, and then also highlight one player I think will fall short of their projection by giving them the "Oops" designation.  Here are my picks for this week:

Well Played of the Week

Well Played

QB Blake Bortles vs BUF

Did you know that Blake Bortles is currently the 5th best quarterback in fantasy football?  I know, right?  He's averaging 19.7 fantasy points through the first six weeks of the season.  I think most of this is due to game script, in that the Jags are down and forced to throw all the time.  In fact, Bortles has the 3rd most passing attempts of all quarterbacks in the league, aka, prime opportunity.  While the Bills have a very good real-life defense, in fantasy football they can be thrown on.  They are only the 21st best pass defense allowing an average of 18.6 fantasy points per game.  With Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins both out, the Bills offense may struggle to consistently move the ball, giving the Jags plenty of opportunities.  I think Bortles should be good to meet his per-game average, but for some reason Fantasy Pros has him projected for only 16.1 fantasy points this week.  I think he'll beat that.

Oops of the Week

Oops Award

WR Julian Edelman vs NYJ

A lot of the big-name wide receivers are on a BYE this week, so the pickings are slim.  But Edelman is one guy I'm staying away from this week.  He's projected as a top 5 receiver, but he draws Darrelle Revis and the Jets dominant secondary this week.  The Jets are ranked 6th in the league allowing an average of only 19.1 to opposing team's wide receivers.  If you split that pie in three amongst Edelman, Amendola and Martin, you can begin to see how few points there are to go around.  While Edelman doesn't appear on the injury report, there were shots of his gimpy finger during last week's game and it didn't look good.  He had an unusually high number of drops immediately following the injury, and in the second half of the game only got 1 target.  Fantasy Pros has him projected for 11.9 fantasy points in standard leagues, but I'm staying away this week.

Last Week: 2-0, Season so far: 8-4

HELP ME FRIGGA

This week's question comes from Ryan Mosch, who you can follow @ryanmosch.  He asks:


First off, both players are nothing but FLEX plays.  But keep your eye on Ben Roethlisberger's health.  If he starts, I would put Bryant in without hesitation.  He even had a good game last week with Landry Jones, so there is some upside there regardless.  With the question mark surrounding the usage of Charles Johnson returning to the lineup, I have a hard time believing in Diggs after only two games (both with Johnson out of the lineup).  There seems to be a little more risk with Diggs simply from an opportunity standpoint.  Both are risky plays regardless, but I suppose I'd lean towards Martavis Bryant generally speaking, and definitely if Big Ben plays.

Daily Norseman Fantasy League

Last week I said one of the undefeated teams would fall, and surprisingly both of them did!  We now have a four-way tie at the top with a bunch of 5-1 teams.  I narrowly lost out to Eric's "2 Glovez" with his Calvin Johnson finally going off (which should have never happened thanks to the refs) and his Torrey Smith having an uncharacteristically awesome day.  On the flipside my Antonio Brown has been killing my point totals lately, and Sam Bradford put up a huge dud in what should have been a great matchup.  I lost by 8 points as a result.  We haven't had much parity in this league so far, but it's still early and therefore, it's anyone's game.  Typically Lazy's "BlairWalshProject" is still looking for its first win, but if his username is any indication, I think we might have a 2008 Detroit Lions situation on our hands.  Unfortunately he has been "that guy" in our league with 0 waiver/roster moves, and having players on a BYE in his lineup the last two weeks. C'mon man, I'm publicly calling you out, especially since so many people would have loved to have your spot in our league.

Rank

Team

W-L-T

Div

Pts For

Pts Agnst

Streak

Division 1

1

MarkSP18 - Jules Winnfield

5-1-0

3-0-0

1010.94

814.76

W-2

6

Christopher Gates - Joe Webb Still Sucks

3-3-0

1-2-0

653.12

648.34

W-2

8

vikingarmy - Zim Reaper

2-4-0

2-1-0

697.14

798.98

L-2

12

Typically Lazy - TheBlairWalshProject

0-6-0

0-3-0

558.34

751.78

L-6

Division 2

2

TINO24 - Heath Miller Time

5-1-0

2-0-0

895.8

716.64

L-1

4

Eric Thompson - 2 Glovez

5-1-0

2-0-0

783.24

694.16

W-3

7

Viketoryordeath - MayTheNorseBeWithYou

2-4-0

0-3-0

744.06

740.52

L-3

11

Arif Hasan - We're Ball Wittenses

2-4-0

1-2-0

646.78

769.06

W-2

Division 3

3

CCNorseman - Diggs Darklighter

5-1-0

3-0-0

855.22

641.62

L-1

5

RedHat16 - CrisCarters FallGuys

3-3-0

2-1-0

769.26

739.98

W-1

9

Jackson McIntire - Jackson's Team

2-4-0

0-3-0

671.42

759.5

W-1

10

DADAIR25 - HitmanHarry

2-4-0

1-2-0

649.88

859.86

L-2

If you're interested in joining my Week 7 Fanduel League, join here!  Unfortunately the league last week didn't fill last week.  We were literally one player short, which is just as well because my lineups were not good.    Because I have to hustle so hard on twitter to fill this league, I've reduced it to 10 teams, and if it doesn't make again, then I'm going to cancel it for the rest of the season, because "aint nobody got time for that."  This time, it's only a 10-team league and still a $2 entry fee with the top 3 finishers earning a payout.  Don't forget if you want to see your fantasy football question featured here in the Frigga Fantasy Football series, hit me up on twitter @CCNorseman with the hashtag: #helpmefrigga on Wednesdays or Thursdays.  Feel free to leave your sit/start questions in the comments below for myself and others to chime in.