Frigga Fantasy Football Friday: Week 9 vs STL

This week my job is eating my free time like an over-weight step-child gorging on Halloween candy.  So it will be a short one!  Let's get right to the stats:

The Rams field an elite defense for fantasy purposes.  There isn't a single skill position on offense that matches up well against the Rams.  That said, this would be another good week to play the Vikings D/ST and even Blair Walsh is a consideration here, as the Rams give up 26^th and 25^th most points to defenses and kickers respectively.  As always the consensus projections come to us from the good folks at Fantasy Pros, who compile their stats from the following five sources: ESPN, CBS, NumberFire, Stats.com and FFToday.

Teddy fell well short of his projection last week, despite the positive matchup.  Against the Rams, I would not even consider starting Teddy in any format.  And with Diggs banged up and potentially not 100% on Sunday, I would not feel confident rolling him out there.  His projection is significantly lower this week compared to last week as well.

Peterson also fell short of his projection, despite a great matchup.  It wasn't that he had a poor day, he got 22 touches and went over 100 total yards which is always great for a running back.  But he did not score a touchdown, despite the high projection for one (essentially a 70% chance for one last week).  Like Teddy, his projection is lower this week compared to last week, but he's still an every week starter, even in a bad matchup.  He has such a high floor, that you can expect 5-10 points even in the worst weeks.

At this point, I don't know if I can recommend any Vikings receiver not named Stefon Diggs.  He got three times as many targets as the next most-targeted player and has single-handedly turned around the Vikings passing offense.  Unfortunately, he's not 100% and missed practice Wednesday and was limited Thursday.  If he can't go, Mike Wallace is the next best option in the passing game, but even then I'm not sure I would recommend starting him as he literally did nothing with his four targets last week.  Eight different players were targeted by Teddy last week too, so if Diggs sits, he'll likely spread the ball around to whoever is open.  But, because of the poor matchup, if you have better options than Diggs or Wallace, roll with those.

Rudolph is basically off the fantasy radar until further notice.  MyCole Pruitt actually got one more target than Rudolph last week, but neither was a focal point in the offense.

I like the Vikings D/ST unit this week against a suspect Rams passing offense.  Gurley presents a challenge on the ground, but it should be a low scoring game, so start ‘em up.  Blair Walsh might actually have worked his way out of the doghouse.  If I let his extra point miss from two weeks ago slide, then he has completed his 3 games in a row without a missed field goal metric I setup for him early in the season.  Since the BYE week Walsh has averaged 15 fantasy points per game and is now the 8^th best kicker in the league for fantasy purposes.  He's got a plus matchup this week, so I would tentatively consider starting him...don't make me look like a fool Blair.

It's onto my league-wide picks!  I like to highlight one player that I think will outscore their consensus projection by giving them the "Well Played" designation, and then also highlight one player I think will fall short of their projection by giving them the "Oops" designation.  Here are my picks for this week:

Well Played of the Week

Heath Miller vs OAK

If you're looking for a cheap, under-the-radar option at tight end, look no further than Heath Miller this week.  Oakland being bad against tight ends is still a thing this year.  Ignoring the weird game where no Denver tight ends caught a pass against Oakland, they've allowed a touchdown to tight ends in every other game this year.  With LeVeon Bell out for the year, and Big Ben presumably one week healthier, it make sense that the Steelers might leave a little more heavy on the pass.  If you didn't notice, Miller caught 10 passes for 105 yards last week, and now gets the best matchup on paper for tight ends.  It's true that he's old, and generally has a low ceiling, but this is the week to start him.  Fantasy Pros only has him projected for 5.8 points this week, but I think he'll beat that.

Oops of the Week

Donte Moncrief vs DEN

If we learned anything about Denver's defense last week against Green Bay, it's that they are elite, and the best defense in the NFL right now.  They are tough at every level, and I want nothing to do with any players that will face them in fantasy.  That means this week I'm sitting all the Colts, and especially Donte Moncrief who looked dreadful last week.  Yes T.Y. Hilton may not play, but that just makes it worse as then Denver can double-team their only other competent receiver.  Fantasy Pros has Moncrief projected for 8.5 fantasy points, and I would be shocked to see him meet or exceed that number against Denver.

Last Week: 1-1, Season so far: 10-6

Daily Norseman Fantasy League

No Help Me Frigga this week...I just didn't have time to twitter fish for questions.  Also, I've left the table out for this week's DN League update as there have been no major changes.  But this is still a big week as the top two teams face off!  My Diggs Darklighter (7-1) faces DJ's Heath Miller Time (7-1) for a winner take all mid-season battle.

As always leave us your fantasy questions in the comments below and help each other out with feedback!