Twas The Night Before Pre-Free Agency Plan v.3.0428x

I have made several comments about AP and his contract.  I think that is what this is really all about.  The incident with his son has not helped things for sure and adds to this situation.  But to me, this was going to happen anyway because his contract is ridiculous.  He knows it. His agent knows it. The Vikings know it.  Everyone should know it.

AP is due 13 mil in 2015, 15 mil in 2016, and 17 mil in 2017.
LeSean McCoy is due 10.25 mil in 2015, 7.15 in 2017, and 7.85 in 2017.
Matt Forte is due 8.2 mil in 2015.
Arian Foster is due 6.406 in 2015 and 7 mil in 2016.
Marshawn Lynch is due 7 mil in 2015.
Jonathan Stewart is due 5.857  mil in 2015, 7.107 mil in 2016, and 7.607 mil in 2017.  Wow!
Jamaal Charles is due 7.971 mil in 2015, 6 mil in 2016, and 7 mil in 2017.

I am not sure how the Vikings can feel good about paying AP that much money. I have read the numerous comments where fans have stated that the Vikings can "afford" it so it really should not be a problem.  Well, I will forever disagree with this viewpoint so there is no use in trying.  We will have to agree to disagree.

Dare I say that the Vikings are also aware of this situation and are actively attempting to do something about it.  That could be why AP said he sees no reason that he needs to take a pay cut and his agent got into it with Brez.  Like I said above, everyone knows that his contract is out of line and that he is not going to earn all of that from the Vikings going forward.

Now there is a possibility that the idiots in Winter Park will, in fact, pay him this season's 13 mil.  Obviously I will disagree with this just like I did when they paid Jared Allen his last season's salary of 14.28 mil.  That is a waste of cap resources and whether they spend it or not they will have it to carry over.

Every time I do one of these I want to try and keep AP.  I like him as a back obviously.  Well, maybe not obvious to some but just because I think his salary is out of line does not mean I am not a fan and want him on the Vikings.  I just want something more reasonable in terms of salary going forward that will enable the Vikings do to other things if they so desire.

I am going to present a few scenarios here probably equally as stupid. :)

The first scenario is where the Vikings trade AP.  I think the trade will be with the Cardinals.  They have been making some moves to free up enough cap space to absorb AP's 13 mil via trade.  They will immediately redo his deal though and it seems that AP is willing to do this for them.  I expect something in the 8 mil per year range and a decent signing bonus so that his first year cap hit is not going to be bad at all.

The trade I envision would be their 2015 2nd round pick and Andre Ellington for Adrian Peterson.

Using Fan Speak Manage The Cap tool (MTC) http://fanspeak.com/mtc/ game the Vikings have 20.402 mil in cap space.  The trade takes the available cap space to 33.402 mil in cap space.

As I stated above three of the players that I was in favor of releasing in my first plan are gone.

That leaves Chad Greenway and Greg Jennings as the two players with the highest cap hits remaining.  I know Chad wants to stay with the Vikings and he probably will come to an agreement with the Vikings.  Not in this plan though.  It is time to say goodbye.  Con ti partiro. 

Jennings is overpaid.  I do not think he brings enough to the table to justify that salary.  I know others disagree.  That is cool. We will agree to disagree again.  I think his age is a factor and I cannot figure out a restructure that will work out good for him and the team.  I mean basically you are asking him to take a pay cut.  But the prorated signing bonus money is not going to change.  If they release him after the 2015 season they take a 4 mil cap hit.  If they release him after the 2016 season they take 2 mil cap hit.  So what kind of deal could you offer that is reasonable.  If he is willing to take 6 mil in 2015, 5 mil in 2016, and 4 mil in 2017 would that be decent?  Obviously you do not want to give him a signing bonus because it will add to the dead money cap hits later.  If he took this deal he would have cap hits of 8 mil, 7 mil, and 6 mil.  This would save the Vikings 3 mil, 4 mil, and 5 mil in cap space.  Of course he will be 32, 33, & 34 the next 3 seasons.  I just do not see it so he is not in this plan.

With these two players released that gives the Vikings 45.501 in cap space this year.  They will have to spend about 30 mil to reach the minimum and some or a lot of that could be for Harrison Smith.

Here are the players added ...

Jake Locker (QB) accepted your 5 year offer for $3,000,000 per year
Stevan Ridley (RB) accepted your 4 year offer for $2,500,000 per year
Kenny Britt (WR) accepted your 5 year offer for $3,750,000 per year
Virgil Green (TE) accepted your 5 year offer for $2,250,000 per year
Clint Boling (G) accepted your 5 year offer for $6,600,000 per year
Adrian Clayborn (DE) accepted your 4 year offer for $2,250,000 per year
Da'Quan Bowers (DT) accepted your 4 year offer for $2,250,000 per year
Rolando McClain (ILB) accepted your 6 year offer for $6,950,000 per year
Chris Culliver (CB) accepted your 5 year offer for $4,850,000 per year
Rahim Moore (S) accepted your 6 year offer for $7,200,000 per year


After these signings the available cap space remaining is 20.549 mil.

Obviously, I probably am paying too much for some of these players like Clayborn, Bowers, Britt, and Ridley.  But I expect most of the deals to be structured where the team could get out of them in a couple of years.  Clayborn and Bowers could be nice if Zimmer can coach them up.  They might be ready to bloom.

So now I go onto the draft. The roster looks like this (with some missing perhaps) ...

QB - BRIDGEWATER LOCKER DEVLIN
RB - ELLINGTON MCKINNON RIDLEY ASIATA BANYARD LINE JOSEY
WR - C. JOHNSON PATTERSON BRITT WRIGHT THIELEN
TE - RUDOLPH ELLISON GREEN FORD
OT - KALIL LOADHOLT WENTWORTH BYKOWSKI RICHARDSON
OG - FUSCO BOLING YANKEY
C - SULLIVAN
DE - GRIFFEN ROBISON CLAYBORN CRICHTON TRATTOU
DT - JOSEPH FLOYD BOWERS STEPHEN
OLB - BARR HODGES WATTS KADDU
MLB - MCCLAIN MAUTI COLE
CB - RHODES CULLIVER ROBINSON MUNNERLYN SHERELS GREENWOOOD PRICE PRATER
S - SMITH MOORE BLANTON MAYS EXUM DIXON
K - WALSH
P - LOCKE
LS - LOEFFLER

The Vikings have these picks now 1.11, 2.45, 2.55, 3.76, 4.107, 4.121, 5.129, 5.141, 7.203

I used walterfootball's mockdraft as a guide ...

1.11: Amari Cooper WR Alabama
2.45: Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE UCLA
2.55: DJ Humphries OT Florida
3.76: Stephone Anthony LB Clemson
4.107: Josh Shaw CB USC
5.129: David Cobb RB Minnesota
5.141: Darren Waller WR Georgia Tech
7.203: Derrick Lott DT Chattanooga

After the draft the roster looks like this ...

QB - BRIDGEWATER LOCKER DEVLIN
RB - ELLINGTON MCKINNON RIDLEY ASIATA *COBB BANYARD LINE JOSEY
WR - C. JOHNSON PATTERSON BRITT *COOPER WRIGHT THIELEN
TE - RUDOLPH ELLISON GREEN *WALLER FORD
OT - KALIL LOADHOLT *HUMPHRIES WENTWORTH BYKOWSKI RICHARDSON
OG - FUSCO BOLING YANKEY
C - SULLIVAN
DE - GRIFFEN ROBISON CLAYBORN CRICHTON *ODIGHIZUWA TRATTOU
DT - JOSEPH FLOYD BOWERS STEPHEN *LOTT
OLB - BARR HODGES WATTS KADDU
MLB - MCCLAIN *ANTHONY MAUTI COLE
CB - RHODES CULLIVER ROBINSON *SHAW MUNNERLYN SHERELS GREENWOOOD PRICE PRATER
S - SMITH MOORE BLANTON EXUM SENDEJO DIXON
K - WALSH
P - LOCKE
LS - LOEFFLER

* indicates a rookie

Cutting down to 53 is going to be tough but obviously the running backs and corners will have a lot of cuts.



Now here is the second plan with the Vikings keeping AP.

Here are the players added ...

Adrian Peterson (RB) accepted your 5 year offer for $8,100,000 per year
Derrick Morgan (DE) accepted your 5 year offer for $5,400,000 per year
Henry Melton (DT) accepted your 4 year offer for $4,200,000 per year
Rahim Moore (S) accepted your 6 year offer for $7,000,000 per year
Jake Locker (QB) accepted your 5 year offer for $3,100,000 per year
Sean Weatherspoon (OLB) accepted your 4 year offer for $3,950,000 per year
Mike Iupati (G) accepted your 6 year offer for $7,850,000 per year
Davon House (CB) accepted your 5 year offer for $3,500,000 per year
Virgil Green (TE) accepted your 4 year offer for $2,750,000 per year
Miles Austin (WR) accepted your 4 year offer for $2,500,000 per year

After these signings the available cap space remaining is 15.849 mil.

Now this is a pretty substantial cut for AP but it is still at the top of all running backs.

The Vikings have these picks now 1.11, 2.45, 3.76, 4.107, 5.129, 5.141, 7.203

I used walterfootball's mockdraft as a guide ...

1.11: Amari Cooper WR Alabama
2.45: Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE UCLA
3.76: Jake Fisher OT Oregon
4.107: Josh Shaw CB USC
5.129: David Cobb RB Minnesota
5.141: Leterrius Walton DT Central Michigan
7.203: Edmond Robinson LB Newberry

After the draft the roster looks like this ...

QB - BRIDGEWATER LOCKER DEVLIN
RB - PETERSON MCKINNON ASIATA *COBB BANYARD LINE JOSEY
WR - C. JOHNSON PATTERSON AUSTIN *COOPER WRIGHT THIELEN
TE - RUDOLPH ELLISON GREEN FORD
OT - KALIL LOADHOLT *FISHER WENTWORTH BYKOWSKI RICHARDSON
OG - FUSCO IUPATI YANKEY
C - SULLIVAN
DE - GRIFFEN ROBISON MORGAN CRICHTON *ODIGHIZUWA TRATTOU
DT - JOSEPH FLOYD MELTON STEPHEN *LOTT
OLB - BARR HODGES WATTS KADDU *NEWBERRY
MLB - WEATHERSPOON MAUTI COLE
CB - RHODES HOUSE ROBINSON *SHAW MUNNERLYN SHERELS GREENWOOOD PRICE PRATER
S - SMITH MOORE BLANTON EXUM SENDEJO DIXON
K - WALSH
P - LOCKE
LS - LOEFFLER

* indicates a rookie

I like this one too.  It all depends on AP.


Now this is the last plan.  This may be closer to what happens in terms of releasing players.  I only have Greenway moving on because I am not sure they are going to be able to work out a new deal (I could not get Greenway to accept less than 4 mil in this game which may be an indicator of his value - or not).

Here are the players added ...

Adrian Peterson (RB) accepted your 5 year offer for $8,100,000 per year (50%)
Jake Locker (QB) accepted your 5 year offer for $3,100,000 per year
Derrick Morgan (DE) accepted your 5 year offer for $5,400,000 per year
Perrish Cox (CB) accepted your 4 year offer for $2,750,000 per year
Tayvon Branch (S) accepted your 4 year offer for $3,250,000 per year
Brandon Mebane (DT) accepted your 5 year offer for $4,250,000 per year
Orlando Franklin (G) accepted your 6 year offer for $7,300,000 per year
Curtis Lofton (ILB) accepted your 4 year offer for $4,400,000 per year
Ryan Harris (T) accepted your 4 year offer for $2,250,000 per year

After these signings the available cap space remaining is 15.122 mil.

Now this is a pretty substantial cut for AP but it is still at the top of all running backs.

The Vikings have these picks now 1.11, 2.45, 3.76, 4.107, 5.129, 5.141, 7.203

I am using drafttek's mock draft as a guide ...

1.11: Vic Beasley LB Clemson
2.45: Sammie Coates WR Auburn
3.76: Henry Anderson DE Stanford
4.107: Byron Jones CB Connecticut
5.129: David Cobb RB Minnesota
5.141: Shane Carden QB East Carolina
7.203: Leterrius Walton DT Central Michigan

After the draft the roster looks like this ...

QB - BRIDGEWATER LOCKER *CARDEN DEVLIN
RB - PETERSON MCKINNON ASIATA *COBB BANYARD LINE JOSEY
WR - JENNINGS C. JOHNSON PATTERSON *COATES WRIGHT THIELEN
TE - RUDOLPH ELLISON FORD
OT - KALIL LOADHOLT HARRIS WENTWORTH BYKOWSKI RICHARDSON
OG - FUSCO FRNAKLIN YANKEY
C - SULLIVAN
DE - GRIFFEN ROBISON MORGAN CRICHTON *ANDERSON TRATTOU
DT - JOSEPH FLOYD MEBANE STEPHEN *WALTON
OLB - BARR HODGES WATTS KADDU *BEASLEY
MLB - LOFTON MAUTI COLE
CB - RHODES HOUSE ROBINSON *JONES MUNNERLYN SHERELS GREENWOOOD PRICE PRATER
S - SMITH BRANCH BLANTON EXUM SENDEJO DIXON
K - WALSH
P - LOCKE
LS - LOEFFLER

* indicates a rookie

It is likely that this last plan is closer in terms of players they keep. Who knows with the free agents?

I am very excited to see what happens. I am always wrong in these plans too.  Last year I thought a good contract for Linval Joseph was 5 year 50 mil.  Good thing I am not running anything no?  :)