On numerous occasions in the past, Minnesota Vikings' general manager Rick Spielman has said that he likes having 10 picks to work with in an NFL Draft. This year is no different, and he made that clear in a press conference this afternoon.
Per our friends over at Vikings Territory, Spielman said that he's looking forward to trading out of the #11 pick, if possible, saying that there isn't a huge difference between the seventh or eighth player on their board and the twentieth.
The #11 pick could end up fetching a decent price for Spielman and company. . .not enough to get the Vikings to their desired ten picks all by itself, mind you, but it could give them a decent start. While no team has moved up to #11 in the past four drafts, there are a couple of trades that might give a gauge of approximate value.
In 2012, the Philadelphia Eagles moved up from #15 to #12 in the first round in a deal with the Seattle Seahawks. For the right to move up those three spots, the Eagles parted with a fourth-round pick and a sixth-round pick.
In 2013, the St. Louis Rams jumped up to the #8 spot from #16 in a deal with the Buffalo Bills. That move cost the Rams significantly. . .they gave up a second rounder, a third rounder, and a seventh rounder (while getting a third round pick back from the Bills). Of course, the Rams had a bunch of extra picks in their back pocket from the RGIII trade with the Redskins, so it didn't have quite as big an impact on them.
In last year's draft, we saw a couple of trade ups in the 20s. The New Orleans Saints moved from 27 to 20 in a deal with the Arizona Cardinals, and the Cleveland Browns moved from 26 to 22 in a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. To move up, the Saints and Browns both gave up third-round picks and nothing else.
Based on the infamous trade chart, if a team wanted to move up from. . .let's say pick #17 (currently held by the San Diego Chargers). . .to Minnesota's spot at 11, the Vikings should be able to net something in the neighborhood of a second round pick, or possibly a combination of some lower round picks. As I mentioned in a post the other day, moving up to #11 to get a player that was perceived as a top ten selection also gives teams the luxury of getting a players fifth-year option for a much lower price.
If Rick Spielman wants to get his extra draft picks, it probably starts with him trading down from #11, which he's more than willing to do. If I had to put a percentage on it, I'd have to guess that the odds of the Vikings actually picking at #11 is around 25% right now. Even if he's putting a giant, flashing neon sign on his desires at this point. . .and yes, I know that this is Rick Spielman. . .I just can't see the Vikings doing anything but trading down on Thursday night.