Frigga’s Fantasy Football: Vikings 2015 Draft Guide

The Norse goddess Frigg, or Frigga, was the wife of Odin and most known for her ability to see the future.  The Goddess of Atmosphere has been the perfect muse to inspire fantasy football articles the past few years here at the Daily Norseman. So we, the fantasy football fans of the Minnesota Vikings, call on you Frigga to help us in our draft rooms this year, to make wise choices that rain down points on our respective teams.

So what can you expect to get out of this Vikings draft guide?  It will give you a detailed breakdown of average draft position, average rankings, statistical projections and draft round targets for all of the fantasy relevant Vikings players.  One thing to keep in mind, this fantasy guide will be geared towards re-draft leagues, and I am basing all my numbers on ESPN 10-team standard leagues.  So Frigga, take us through it player-by-player, starting with the quarterback position.

Quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater

There is a lot of hype surrounding Teddy Bridgewater this year, but not necessarily in fantasy football.  In real life, NFL analysts are impressed with Bridgewater's end of the year push last year, and expecting him to make a jump in year two.  And why not?  He's got a lot more weapons surrounding him this year, and has a year of development in Norv Turner's offense.  Consider the upgrade in weapons:

Position	2014	2015
Running Back #1	Matt Asiata/Jerrick McKinnon	Adrian Peterson
Receiver #1	Greg Jennings	Charles Johnson
Receiver #2	Cordarrelle Patterson	Mike Wallace
Receiver #3	Charles Johnson	Jarius Wright
Tight End #1	Chase Ford	Kyle Rudolph

To make a long story short, Teddy gets, essentially, only one skill player back from last year: Charles Johnson.  Jarius Wright could arguably be on the list from 2014, and he will return as well, but the main point is that the additions of Peterson, Wallace and Rudolph are all pretty significant.  So if Teddy found success with the skill position players he had last year (arguably lesser talent), imagine what he could do with an upgrade in talent around him this year?

Now, when you look at the average performance Teddy had during the final 4 games of the year as the starter compared to his first 8 games as a starter, there is a pretty stark difference:

2014 Season	Avg. Yards	Avg. TDs	Avg. INTs	Avg. FP (ESPN Standard)
First 8 Starts	209.6	1.0	0.88	12.8
Last 4 Starts	273.0	1.3	1.25	16.2
All 12 Starts	230.8	1.2	1.0	13.9

Generally speaking, when analysts make projections for the year, they take into account a player's entire body of work from the previous season.  But for Teddy Bridgewater, this may not be relevant based on the progress and development he displayed as his rookie season went along.  I took an early stab at projecting Bridgewater back in May, going with a conservative projection based on historical stats of quarterbacks in Norv Turner's offense of 14 fantasy points per game.  But if I had to re-do that projection, I'd probably shoot for something closer to 15 or 16 average fantasy points per game based on the newer rules that favor passing in the NFL in today's game, and the aforementioned uptick in skill position talent.  What do the experts think?  Well, the following table shows the consensus projection on Fantasy Pros from the following five sources: CBS, ESPN, Number Fire, Pro Football Focus and FF Today.

2015 Projection	Passing Yards	Passing TDs	Interceptions	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Fumbles	Fantasy Points
Teddy Bridgewater	3,742.2	22.2	15.0	274.7	1.8	3.6	239.8 (14.9 p/g)

I think it's safe to say that Bridgewater should average somewhere in the neighborhood of 14-16 fantasy points per game in 2015, making him a viable backup quarterback.  He's probably not a starter in a 10-team league, but he could be a great bye week or injury fill-in.  With your #1 quarterback in a standard 10-team league you want a guy who will average 18-22 points per game.  Last year Teddy hit that mark only twice in 12 starts (and only once in his last 4 games).  Even with improvement from last year it could be difficult for him to reach that mark consistently.  If you look at his preseason numbers so far, he has played in almost four quarters of football and attempted 28 passes (4 less than his average per game last year).  He's gone 22 of 28 for 219 yards and 1 touchdown with 10 rushing yards this Preseason.  It's very efficient quarterbacking, and excellent in real life NFL, but a little disappointing in fantasy.  Even with the rushing thrown in, it amounts to 13.8 fantasy points (nearly identical to his season average by start last year).  Admittedly, it's an extremely small sample size based on a vanilla Preseason offense.  But my point is, while we're seeing a more confident and efficient Teddy Bridgewater this offseason, it likely won't amount to too many more fantasy points.  Not unless they start taking the top off of defenses with Mike Wallace routinely (something we've not really seen yet).

So, where should we draft Teddy Bridgewater?  Well, again, turning to Fantasy Pros, their consensus data is superb.  Starting with their Overall Rankings, Bridgewater's consensus ranking from 105 experts is 111 overall (highest rank was 63^rd, lowest was 190^th).  If I filter it down to the 20 most accurate rankers from last year he climbs a little to 104 overall (highest rank was 82^nd, lowest was 160^th).  So the more expert, experts are a little higher on Teddy Bridgewater with less variation.  The Average Draft Position (ADP) tracker combines six popular drafting sites data into one ranking, from sources like ESPN, CBS, Yahoo!, NFL.com, Fantasy Football Calculator and Fantrax.  They have Bridgewater as the 15^th highest drafted quarterback in live fantasy drafts (as of the publishing of this article) with an ADP of 124.8 (the 115^th ranked player overall by ADP).  Based on his overall ranking and ADP information, in a ten-team league, that makes Bridgewater roughly a 13^th round pick on average (or 12^th rounder by ranking).  His highest ADP was 116 and his lowest was 135.  So if you're targeting Bridgewater shoot for rounds 11-14, or maybe a round sooner if you're drafting with a bunch of Vikings fans.  I would not draft him any earlier than the 10^th round, even as a Viking homer.  If someone else wants to spend an 8^th or 9^th round pick on Bridgewater after they've filled in their starting skill positions, by all means let them!  But he's being projected and drafted like a mid-range, backup quarterback.  And barring injury that is exactly what I think he'll be in 2015.

Frigga's Bold Prediction: Teddy Bridgewater will score above 20 fantasy points five times or less this season.

Running Back Adrian Peterson

So, at this point the question isn't: Is Adrian Peterson worth a 1^st round pick?  The answer is obviously yes.  But instead the real question is: Is Adrian Peterson worth the #1 overall pick?  My short answer is simply: no.  My longer answer, with reasons, is that if I'm taking a player #1 overall, I don't want any question marks at all. I want a rock solid player that I know without a doubt will return my investment.  With Peterson there are the following questions that we won't know the answer to until January of 2016:

1.       Will Peterson show a decline in performance at age 30 and with over 2,000 carries under his belt?

2.       What impact will a year off from football have on his production?

3.       Which Adrian Peterson are we going to get?  The early years Peterson that averaged 5.0 yards per carry during his first 1,754 carries, or the later years Peterson that averaged 4.47 yards per carry on his last 300 carries?

4.       Can Peterson stay healthy for a full 16 games at age 30 playing a position that suffers injuries at nearly twice the rate of any other position?

5.       Is there any risk of further suspension from the NFL Personal Conduct Policy?

If you think the answers to #1 and #2 are "no" and "none" respectively (and there could be good reason to believe that), then your only real worries are the injury risk, personal conduct risk and the eternal question of statistical projection.  If you don't buy the notion that 30-year old running backs with a history of injuries have no further injury risk (and Peterson appears to have at least less than a 65% risk of injury this season), and that Peterson will be safe from further league punishment off the field, then I suppose the only question left for you is: what kind of statistical production will he have given no decline or injuries?  If your purple lenses are so thick that you can see past all those question marks, then let's get down to the nitty gritty and talk projections.

When projecting a running back the two most important things are opportunity (ie, number of carries and receptions) and how efficient that player is with those touches (ie, yards per carry, and yards per reception).  Peterson has averaged nearly 20 carries/game his entire career (or roughly 316 carries per year).  If we remove his incomplete 2008, 2011 and 2014 seasons from the equation where he started 12 or less games, then as a percentage of his team's carries, Peterson typically has averaged about 68% of the team's total rushing carries.  Last year, the first in Turner's scheme, the Vikings had the fewest rushing attempts since Peterson has been a Viking, totaling only 413 team carries (all half backs combined for 332 carries).  Using that 413 total, and Peterson's career average of 316 carries per year, that means he would have gotten 77% of the team's total carries last year, a pretty significant uptick in rushing share.  Now, an argument could be made that with Peterson on the field the offense would have been better all-around, and that might have led to more total team carries.  And over Peterson's career (again excluding the incomplete seasons) the Vikings have averaged 467 team carries, so there could be truth to that rumor.  Let's go ahead and split the difference then from the Vikings average team carries with Peterson, and the number of carries in Turner's offense last year, and project the team for 440 total rushing carries.  If Peterson gets 68% of those carries (his career average), then he could realistically be in line for 299 carries, or let's just round up to 300 to make it nice and neat.

Now comes the hard part: what will his efficiency be as a runner?  Peterson's career yards per carry mark is 5.0.  But if we want to use his most recent games as a barometer for future production, keep in mind that Peterson has averaged 4.47 yards per carry on his most recent 300 carries, a downtick from his career average.  I think it would be pretty difficult for Peterson to maintain 5.0 yards per carry this year, especially when you consider how special his 2012 season was and how much it has propped up his career average.  So, a projection that is somewhere around 4.5 yards per carry seems totally reasonable for Peterson this year, assuming none of the question marks above bear fruit.  Peterson's worst season average was 2009, where he averaged 4.4 yards per carry, and I have a hard time seeing him average much less than that, and certainly no lower than 4.0 yards per carry.  So that gives us the ballpark for his opportunity and efficiency.  So, going with 300 carries, and 4.5 yards per carry, I'd project Peterson for about 1,350 rushing yards this season.  Touchdowns are so totally random, but he usually scores 10-12 a year with 18 being his ceiling and 0 being his floor.  So, let's mark him down for 10 TDs.

Receiving is where it gets really interesting.  Vikings running backs last year caught 82 combined passes for 527 yards and a touchdown.  It's very possible that Mckinnon or Asiata get some additional work on third down and catch some of those passes, but projecting Peterson for 50 receptions is a pretty easy thing to do.  The one year he has had with a good quarterback (2009) he caught 43 passes, so a slight uptick to 50 seems totally reasonable.  Vikings running backs averaged 6.4 yards per reception last year, so 50 receptions projects him for another 320 yards.  That means I give Peterson 1,670 total yards and 10 touchdowns, or 227 fantasy points (14.1 points per game) with added value in PPR leagues.  What do the experts think?  Well, again turning to Fantasy Pros, their consensus projections (the same five sources as quarterbacks) have him projected as follows:

2015 Projection	Att.	Rush Yards	TDs	Rec.	Rec. Yards	Rec. TDs	Fumb.	FP
Adrian Peterson	283.7	1,325.20	9.8	43.6	329.8	1.5	3.4	226.4

This projection has him as the 4^th best running back (just ahead of LeVeon Bell), and it's like we're on the same wave-length.  The consensus projection for Peterson is almost identical to what I've spelled out above in terms of fantasy points, yardage totals and touchdowns.  They're getting the same production, but a different mix of attempts and receptions.  While he is projected as the 4^th best running back, his consensus ranking for "value" is #1 overall. So I feel really good about this projection...assuming that none of the issues mentioned at the beginning hold any water.  If they do...well...take this whole thing with a grain of salt.

So, where should you target Peterson in your drafts then?  Well if you follow the value rankings then you'd take him #1 overall.  But If I were you, I would not spend the #1 overall pick to find out the answers to those earlier questions, especially considering the projection information.  There is almost a 5-way tie for running back projections on Fantasy Pros with Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch, LeVeon Bell and Adrian Peterson all projected within 12 total fantasy points of each other.  And some of those guys don't have nearly the question marks that Peterson has (also remember that Bell will nearly equal Peterson's projection with 2 missed games!).  So, no, I wouldn't spend the #1 pick on Adrian Peterson.  But I would spend a top 5 pick on Peterson, because he is still in line to be the workhorse running back in a scheme that is extremely friendly to running backs.  Again, in fantasy football you want to find the perfect combination of talent and opportunity, and Peterson has both in spades.  Now, having said all that, Peterson is currently the #1 overall player being drafted based on consensus ADP.   So clearly most fantasy drafters and expert rankers think Peterson is worth the #1 overall pick.  So I guess that puts me in the minority.

Frigga's Bold Prediction: Despite being drafted and ranked #1 overall, Adrian Peterson will not lead the league in rushing in 2015.

WR Charles Johnson

First of all, it sure helps that we have a projection for Teddy Bridgewater.  I didn't include it in the table above, but Bridgewater is projected for 321 passing completions (almost identical to the number all Vikings quarterbacks completed last year).  Somebody is going to have to catch all those passes.  But did you know that last year of the 322 completions from Vikings quarterbacks, only 173 were caught by wide receivers (53.7%).  There are going to be primarily three receivers catching passes in the Vikings offense this year: Charles Johnson, Mike Wallace and Jarius Wright.  The big question is, how will those completions be divided up?  Johnson took over the starting X receiver position during the final 7 games last year, and he averaged 3.5 receptions per game.  That average would total about 57 receptions over 16 games (2 less than the total Greg Jennings had last year).  If we believe the hype that Johnson has made big strides this off-season, and there is reason to believe that he has since he has already caught 5 passes so far this Preseason (in what has amounted to about one game's worth of action so far), it seems safe to project him for about 4-5 receptions per game (or just 4.5 for math's sake).  That gives him 72 receptions this year.  His yards per reception average last year during the final 7 games as the starting X receiver was 16.6, a very respectable number.  So taking that average along with his 72 catches projection gives him 1,195 receiving yards.  He caught 2 touchdowns in 7 games last year, and already has 1 this Preseason, so projecting him for 4-6 touchdowns seems reasonable as well.  That all adds up to roughly 150 fantasy points (9.3 per game).  What do the experts project him for in 2015?  Well, let's take a look at the Fantasy Pros consensus numbers!

2015 Projection	Rec.	Rec. Yards	TDs	Fumb.	FP
Charles Johnson	58.6	849.7	5.2	0.5	115.2 (7.2)

Well the expert projections are not nearly as high on Charles Johnson as I am.  They are projecting Charles Johnson for a similar season to what Greg Jennings had last year: 59 catches, 742 yards, 6 TDs.  I think this is a mistake, since Jennings played with a mixture of Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder at the beginning of the year, and then fell out of favor with Bridgewater towards the end of the year.  During the first 9 games of the year (before Johnson became a starter with some Cassel/Ponder starts), Jennings averaged 51 yards per game, and had four games with at least 70 receiving yards.  In the final 7 games (after Johnson became a starter, and Teddy got hot), Jennings averaged 40 receiving yards per game and didn't have a single game with more than 56 receiving yards.  So, projecting Charles Johnson to essentially "replace" Greg Jennings seems misguided.  Even if you decided that Johnson hasn't progressed and would just equal his production as a starter last year, projecting his final 7 games last year over an entire 16-game season would give you the following stat line: 57 catches, 949 yards, 4.5 touchdowns, or 122 total fantasy points.  So I have a hard time believing that Charles Johnson would actually do worse than last year's average as a starter.  In short, this is a low-ball projection in my opinion.

So, if you want to draft Charles Johnson, where should you be looking?  The consensus value ranking from Fantasy Pros has him ranked as the 38^th best wide receiver, or 85^th overall.  His ADP however is 97^th overall, meaning that most fantasy drafters are buying into his low-ball projection.  Long story short, in most drafts Charles Johnson is being taken in the 9^th or 10^th round as a backup wide receiver.  I put him more as a FLEX option, or #3 wide receiver that is worthy of a 6^th-7^th round pick.  At the very least, if you're in a draft full of Vikings fans you'll have to draft him there, but I'd even feel comfortable taking him there in a regular league too.

Frigga's Bold Prediction: Charles Johnson will have the most receptions and receiving yards of any Viking's receiver.

WR Mike Wallace

So if we go with my projection for Johnson of 72 catches, then there are only 101 projected completions to receivers from Teddy Bridgewater unaccounted for.  No, I don't think Wallace will get all of them, because Jarius Wright is still in the picture and so are the depth receivers like Patterson, Diggs and maybe Thielen.  While Wright has seen a steady uptick in receptions from 22 to 26 and last year 42 (very quietly catching the 2^nd most receiving yards on the team), I find it difficult for him to find much more of a role than the 3^rd receiving option and slot guy.  I'd project Wright for roughly the same production as last year (maybe less honestly if Johnson emerges like we think he will).  If we go with 40 receptions for Wright, that leaves roughly 61 receptions on the table for Wallace and everybody else.  Patterson had 33 receptions last year, but 25 of them came in the first 8 games of the year when he was still sort of a "starter."   In the final 8 games of the year he had a total of 8 catches, or 1 per game.  So, if chalk up 15 catches or so for Patterson and maybe 10 more for Diggs and Thielen that leaves Wallace with only 36 catches, assuming Bridgewater's projection is accurate and the share of receptions to receivers stays the same as last year.  That would be pretty disappointing, but I have to say, so far in the Preseason Teddy has not really been looking for Mike Wallace.  He'll be playing primarily the Z receiver role, which is what Greg Jennings played last year.  Jennings averaged 14.6 yards per reception in that role last year, while Wallace has a career receiving average of 15.6.  If we split the difference to 15.1, and for projection purposes go with 36 receptions, that gives him 543.6 yards.  That seems really, really low, but if we're high on Charles Johnson (and we are), then there's just not much left in the pie for Wallace.  One other thing to keep in mind though is that Wallace has averaged 7.8 touchdowns per season for his career, and Jennings found the endzone 6 times last year, so there is some definite scoring potential there.  Again, if we split the difference, that projects him for roughly 7 touchdowns.  That has me projecting him for 96.4 fantasy points (or roughly 6 points per game).  What do the consensus experts at Fantasy Pros think?

2015 Projection	Rec.	Rec. Yards	TDs	Fumb.	FP
Mike Wallace	59.7	885.3	5.6	0.9	121.3 (7.6)

This projection is very similar to the one they had for Charles Johnson, with the main difference being an extra touchdown.  But they are clearly much higher on Wallace than I am.  I guess am down on Mike Wallace because he hasn't demonstrated much rapport with Teddy yet this Preseason and has a history of being malcontent when he doesn't get the ball.  I could see his relationship with Teddy and the Vikings souring pretty quickly this season if Charles Johnson becomes the go-to guy (and I think he will) and they feed Peterson a ton (which I think they will also).  So in a nutshell, I believe the Fantasy Pros projection on Johnson is a little too low, and the projection on Wallace is too high.

If you're looking to draft Mike Wallace, and you also believe in Fantasy Pros projections, then shoot for the 8th or 9th round.  He's ranked as the 86th player overall, but is being drafted as the 77th player overall. In my opinion people are over-paying for his name recognition more than his projection or ranking.

Frigga's Bold Prediction: Mike Wallace will not lead the team in receptions, yards or touchdowns.

TE Kyle Rudolph

So if we continue our look into reception share, last year all Vikings tight ends combined for 69 receptions, or 21% of the total completions.  Would you believe that despite Rudolph starting 8 games last year, Chase Ford actually had the most receiving yards and receiving average of all tight ends?  Using last year's tight end stats to project Rudolph is tough, because there wasn't a clear-cut replacement.  Yes, Chase Ford was basically it, but he only started 5 games and missed 1 game with an injury.  Rhett Ellison saw the most action of any tight end last year, but he was primarily a blocking tight end.  So if I had to spit-ball a reception total for Rudolph, the best way to do it would be to combine his and Ford's numbers, and then siphon off a small portion of Ellison's total as well.  That leads me to a projection of about 50 receptions for Rudolph and about 19 left over for guys like Pruitt and Ellison.

Rudolph has a career receiving average of only 9.7 yards per reception.  2012 was his only season to start a full 16-game slate and he caught 53 passes that year, so a projection of 50 receptions for 485 yards seems about right.  He is quite a red-zone threat, averaging 0.425 touchdowns per start over his career, which would project to about 7 touchdowns on the year.  That gives him a total of 90.5 fantasy points on the year, or 5.7 fantasy points per game.  Now unless Rudolph can significantly improve his receiving average and start catching passes a lot further down the field (and with his mediocre 40-yard dash time, I'm skeptical), this modest projection feels pretty good at first blush.  So what do the Fantasy Pros experts think?

2015 Projection	Rec.	Rec. Yards	Rec. TDs	Fumb.	FP
Kyle Rudolph	52.7	579.1	4.7	0.3	85.4

Their projection is very similar to mine, but with a few more receiving yards and a few less touchdowns, which results in just a hair less fantasy points.  But this gives us a pretty good ballpark for Rudolph.  I know some might be expecting a bit more from Rudolph because of Norv Turner's history with amazing tight end production in fantasy football, and the fact that Teddy does seem to be looking his way often so far this Preseason.  But it really depends on the player, and guys like Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron are great football players.  When Jordan Cameron missed week 15 in 2013, does anyone remember who took his place?  No, no one remembers, because it was somebody named Gary Barnidge who caught 2 passes for 23 yards.  There are plenty of examples of mediocre tight ends who have filled in for starters in Norv's offense who haven't produced anything.  I may be in the minority, but I think Kyle Rudolph is a bit overrated as a tight end.  He's a good, starting quality tight end, but he's not an all-pro type like Antonio Gates in his prime.  And with a 5.7 point average per game in fantasy, his projection makes him barely worth drafting in my opinion, and trust me I've owned Rudolph in at least one fantasy league every year for the past three years...and I've been disappointed every year.

So how is Rudolph being ranked and drafted by the experts?  He's ranked as the 13^th tight end on the board, behind Zach Ertz, Tyler Eifert and Dwayne Allen, but ahead of Antonio Gates and Owen Daniels.  His ADP has him being drafted as the 15^th tight end off the board, and the 155^th player off the board overall.  This makes him a 16^th round draft pick, and in many leagues that might only draft one tight end it makes him barely draftable.  I have concerns about his speed and ability to get open deep down the field which will limit his yards, and there is the obvious injury risk with him having only completed 1 full 16-game season out his 4 so far in the NFL.  There is certainly upside thanks to the scheme, but in all of last year Vikings tight ends combined to produce 60 yards or more in only three games (Rudolph only had one of them in eight starts), and scored only 4 combined touchdowns.

It's worth also pointing out that the coaches are very high on rookie 5^th round draft pick MyCole Pruitt, so if Kyle Rudolph does find himself getting injured again, or regresses for some reason, Pruitt could be a super-deep sleeper.  Pruitt is built like a tank, has incredible speed and hands, and had it not been for his height (6'2") he might have been drafted in the 1^st or 2^nd round.  His measureables are very good and rumor has it that Norv was pounding the table to draft this kid.  So, put Pruitt on your radar.

Frigga's Bold Prediction: Kyle Rudolph will not start all 16 games this season.

Before we get to the special teams players, I thought it would be fun to add up all the skill position player's receiving projections and compare that to Bridgewater's projections.  If Fantasy Pros projections are any good, they should sort of match, right?  Sure we're leaving off a little bit of production for backups, but let's see what it looks like.

Fantasy Pros Receiving Projections
Name	Rec.	Rec. Yards	Rec. TDs
Adrian Peterson	43.6	329.8	1.5
Charles Johnson	58.6	849.7	5.2
Mike Wallace	59.7	885.3	5.6
Kyle Rudolph	52.7	579.1	4.7
Totals	214.6	2,643.9	17
Bridgewater Projection	321	3,742.2	22.2
Remainder	106.4	1,098.3	5.2

I don't know about you, but that remainder is huge.  There is something missing there.  Sure, Jarius Wright, Stephon Diggs, Adam Thielen, MyCole Pruitt, Rhett Ellison, Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata are not included.  And it's possible that those seven players will combine for over 100 receptions and 1,000 yards (do you think they could each catch 14 passes for 140 yards next year?).  But even if you do account for them, it feels like either Bridgewater is over-projected, or somebody on the table above is under-projected.  In my mind, that someone is Charles Johnson.

Vikings D/ST

One of these years I'll finally get around to writing about IDP.  But this year is not one of those years. There's not much to say here, because the top 5 fantasy D/ST are almost never the same from one year to the next.  The Vikings D/ST was quite good in real life last year, and should be even better this year.  For fantasy purposes, they finished as the 12^th best unit last year.  They could very well be a top 10 unit in fantasy this year, so I would absolutely spend a 2^nd to last round draft pick to get them (maybe a 3^rd to last in a league full of Vikings fans if I really wanted them that badly).  But no defense (even Seattle) is worth spending more than a 2^nd to last round pick.  Seattle was the #1 fantasy defense drafted last year by ADP, and many spent a mid-round pick on them, but guess what, they finished 5^th overall.  Don't waste your picks on a D/ST.

Fantasy  Pros has the Vikings D/ST ranked 19^th overall, and their ADP is 15^th overall.  So they are not a popular pick in fantasy right now.  But I'd spend a flier on them even as a streaming defense, especially since they play San Francisco to start the year, and they're kind of a hot mess right now.  I like this defense a lot in year two under Zimmer.

Frigga's Bold Prediction: The Vikings D/ST unit will finish in the top 10 in overall fantasy points.

K Blair Walsh

First off, don't draft a kicker before the final round of your draft.  Blair Walsh finished as the 20^th best kicker in fantasy last year, and has looked a little...off...in Preseason so far.  I'm not worried yet for the season, but the same kind of rule applies to kickers as applied to D/ST above.  While you can almost guarantee that Stephen Gostowski will lead all kickers at the end of the year, after that it really is a crap shoot.  Draft Walsh if you want to, just not before the final round.

Frigga's Bold Prediction: Blair Walsh will finish outside the top 10.

So I thought I'd take a look back at some of the bold predictions from last year and laugh about how wrong I was.  Let's review!

1.       Matt Cassel starts at least 8 games in 2014 and is a top 15 fantasy QB during at least the first 4 weeks of the season.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA, nope.  Although, to be fair, Cassel missed the season due to injury.  It's tough to say what might have happened if Cassel hadn't been injured.

2.       Teddy Bridgewater starts fewer than 4 games in 2014, with the exception of injury replacement.

Well, I'm sort of right there, but only because of the injury replacement thing.

3.       Adrian Peterson scores at least 3 receiving touchdowns in 2014, which would be a career high.

HAHAHAHAHAHA, nope.  Although again, there were extenuating legal circumstances.  It's very possible this turns out to be true this year though.

4.       Greg Jennings leads all Vikings receivers in reception totals for the 2^nd straight year.

Remember when everyone was all aboard the Patterson hype train last year?  I was one of the few that wasn't.  I'd say I nailed that one.

5.       Patterson will collect the most yards from scrimmage of any Vikings receiver, but will not have the most receptions.

Well, I was kind of half right and half wrong.  I figured he's reprise his swiss-army knife role, but he was just flat out benched for the 2^nd half of the year.

6.       Kyle Rudolph has at least 800 receiving yards and 6 TDs in 2014 for at least 116 fantasy points on the year.

Lots of people were high on Rudolph last year, myself included.  Alas the injury bug got him.  But even if we project his 8-game stat line from last year over 16 games, he doesn't even come close to this.  And that's partly why I'm so down on him this year.

7.       The Vikings Special Teams unit fails to score a TD in 2014.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOPE.  They actually scored TWO touchdowns last year.

So by my count I went 2.5 of 7, pretty terrible.  But hey, they were BOLD predictions.  In any case, if you're looking for a nice, neat summary here are the Vikings fantasy relevant players and which rounds to target them in standard 10-team league drafts:

Draft Round Targets for Vikings Players
Name	Consensus Ranking	Consensus ADP
Teddy Bridgewater	12th Round (111th)	12th Round (116th)
Adrian Peterson	1st Round (1st)	1st Round (1st)
Charles Johnson	9th Round (85th)	10th Round (97th)
Mike Wallace	9th Round (86th)	8th Round (77th)
Kyle Rudolph	13th Round (123rd)	16th Round (155th)
Vikings D/ST	29th Round (286th)	22nd Round (212th)
Blair Walsh	32nd Round (313th)	24th Round (236th)