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Frigga Fantasy Football Friday: Week 2 vs DET

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The Daily Norseman breaks down the statistical projections for the Vikings against the Lions and what it all means for fantasy football.

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Outside of Bridgewater, Mike Wallace had the best point total in fantasy football last week.
Outside of Bridgewater, Mike Wallace had the best point total in fantasy football last week.
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Editor's Note: FanDuel is running a $1,000,000 fantasy football league in week 2. The Top 46,000 teams win cash with $100,000 paid to first place. Join now!

As an avid reader of twitter, the internet and all-things-Vikings, I've gotten my fair share of hot taeks over the years. In fact, I'm guessing that if you're reading this article right now you have too. And in the lead-up to Week 2 of the NFL season, times are never riper for hot taeks than they are right now, especially for fantasy football.  In the actual NFL there is "overreaction Monday."  In fantasy football I believe the term is something like OMGERDIHAVETOCUTALLMYSTARTERSANDSPENDALLMYFREEAGENTMONEY...or something like that.  While I certainly contributed my own piece to Overreaction Monday with regards to the Vikings, I try to keep a calm head when it comes to fantasy football. I always like to remind people, strange things can happen in a game with an oblong shaped ball.  It's best not to overreact to targets, passing attempts or reception totals after only one week. I like to save my overreacting in fantasy football for after Week 3.

In any case, we finally get to play a home game this week as we host the Detroit Lions in our first divisional matchup of the season. The Lions also started their season on the road, and will continue with yet another road game.  Like us, they traveled to the West Coast, but took on the Chargers.  And like us, they also came away with a loss. In another thread this week I asked the question: When was the last time the Vikings had a Week 1 Home Opener, and how many have they had in the last ten years?  Answer? 2012 was the last Week 1 home opener, and 8 of the last 10 seasons we've started our season on the road, with 2 of those seasons starting with back-to-back road games.  That seems a bit unfair if you ask me, but what do I know?

In any case, the Lions last year were a team with a strong defense for fantasy purposes. They were top 5 against quarterbacks and top 10 against running backs.  The Lions were merely 14th against receivers, and 15th against tight ends, which illustrates just how good their defensive line was at stopping the run and getting after the quarterback. That said, the Lions lost a lot of players on their defensive line, and so far through one week of play they fielded the 8th worst defense against fantasy quarterbacks and running backs, 9th worst against tight ends, and the 2nd worst defense against receivers.  It could be that the Chargers offense was just that good, or it could be that this Detroit defense isn't nearly as good as it was last year.  With the Vikings offense in a bit of a funk last week in San Francisco Santa Clara, getting a depleted Lions defense at home this week just might be what our offense needs.  These consensus projections come to us directly from Fantasy Pros, who compile the stats from the following sources: ESPN, CBS Sports, NumberFire, and FFToday.

Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Projections for Week 2

Vikings Player

Rush Att.

Rush Yds

Rush TDs

Rec.

Rec. Yds

Rec TDs

Pass Yds

Pass TDs

Pass INTs

Total Points

Season

Average

QB Teddy Bridgewater

3.1

14.1

0.1

n/a

n/a

n/a

241

1.5

1.0

15.2

8.8

RB Adrian Peterson

17.5

71.4

0.6

3.0

23.0

0.1

n/a

n/a

n/a

13.4

5.2

WR Charles Johnson

0.1

0.2

0.0

3.6

52.2

0.2

n/a

n/a

n/a

6.5

2.7

WR Mike Wallace

0.0

-0.1

0.0

4.2

60.8

0.5

n/a

n/a

n/a

9.2

6.3

WR Jarius Wright

0.1

0.8

0.0

2.5

31.6

0.1

n/a

n/a

n/a

4.1

2.7

TE Kyle Rudolph

n/a

n/a

n/a

3.8

39.5

0.5

n/a

n/a

n/a

6.7

5.3


There's not a lot to say about Teddy's performance last week.  He actually hit his projection right on the money, with the exception of 0 passing TDs compared to a projection of 1.5 passing TDs.  Check out this quick comparison of his projected stat line from last week, and his actual stat line:

Week 1 Stat Comparison

Rush Att.

Rush Yds

Rush TDs

Pass Yds

Pass TDs

Pass INTs

Total Points

Bridgewater Projected Stats

2.5

12.6

0.1

233.2

1.5

1.1

14.7

Bridgewater Actual Stats

3.0

16

0.0

231.0

0.0

1.0

8.8


Again, aside from the lack of passing touchdowns, it was scary accurate.  I'd like to think that if the refs had gotten that pass interference call right, and the Vikings had been setup at the 1-yard line, that would have greatly increased the odds for Bridgewater to tack on a passing touchdown to his total.  But otherwise, the running game just could not get on track and the offense on the whole couldn't sustain drives.  Bridgewater is projected for a very slight uptick in performance compared to last week, but I still wouldn't be starting him.  I was sure his projection of 14.7 last week was his statistical floor, but with our depleted offensive line that was obviously an over-projection.  Until I see Teddy consistently find the endzone (something he struggled with last year), I can't recommend him as a starter in anything but the deepest of leagues.

And speaking of the running game, was that a disappointment from Adrian Peterson or what?  His expectation of double-digit fantasy points....was not met, to say the least.  I'm not in full-on panic mode regarding Peterson, but if he has a few more poor showings this week and next, I'd begin to worry.  The offensive line was not able to open many holes last Monday, and if that doesn't get fixed, Peterson will find no room to run.  I found it odd that he only got 36 out of a possible 56 offensive snaps, but that said, he got 10 out of a possible 14 carries.  So what little work there was in the run game, he got the vast majority of it.  Still, the running backs last week generated only 55 yards on 14 carries combined, good enough for a paltry 3.9 yards per carry.  Teddy's 16 yards on 3 carries improves the overall team rate to 4.2 yards per carry, modestly better.  Peterson gets a bit of a downgrade in the projections this week compared to last week, but for the time being you're starting him and hoping for the best.

While the offense did struggle, Teddy threw for 231 yards and there were fantasy points to be had in the receiving game, despite no touchdowns.  Mike Wallace and Kyle Rudolph both saw 7 targets each, notched 63 and 52 total yards respectively.  If they can muster up a few fantasy points in what was otherwise an abysmal showing by the offense, they should be worth a start most weeks.  Think of this as their fantasy floor.  That said, Charles Johnson had a very disappointing fantasy week, only garnering 2 receptions on 3 targets for 27 yards.  Jarius Wright got 1 more target than Johnson and Johnson tied with Peterson for targets.  I'll be tracking the target distribution very carefully over the next few games to try to spot any trends, but for now it appears that maybe Mike Wallace has a bit more value than I initially thought. I think myself (and a lot of others!) put too much stock into the Preseason target distribution.  It's also noteworthy that Wallace sees a higher projection this week than last week.

The Vikings D/ST had a middle of the road unit for fantasy football last week, but hopefully didn't cost too many people their matchups since they put a few points on the board.  But if you can find a better option this week, I would try to upgrade.  It will only get more challenging for them over the next few weeks as they face Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning after this week and then have a BYE in week 5.  Blair Walsh should not be on any rosters at this point.  He made 1 of 2 field goals for a measly 2 points. Zimmer mentioned his concerns in Monday's press conference, so until Walsh gets the mental side of place kicking figured out, stay away.

As mentioned last week, I've created a new segment in the Frigga Fantasy Football articles. I'm going to highlight one player I think will outscore their consensus projection by giving them the "Well Played" designation, and then also highlight one player I think will fall short of their projection by giving them the "Oops" designation.  Here are my picks for this week:

Well Played of the Week

Well Played

RB Danny Woodhead vs CIN

While Melvin Gordon is the "starter" in San Diego and got the majority of the carries last week, it is Danny Woodhead who might hold the most fantasy value.  While Gordon got 14 carries, Woodhead got 12, including all of the red zone carries.  In addition he was second on the team in passing targets with seven, and he hauled in four of those targets for 20 receiving yards.  This is a guy that Philip Rivers trusts in the red zone and has the best hands of any receiver on the team.  I really like him in a PPR league going forward, but with all of that work in the red-zone (a carry-over trend of previous seasons), he'll be worth a start in standard leagues.  He is projected for a criminally low 7.2 fantasy points this week against an average Bengals defense that just gave up 149 total yards to Oakland running backs, 94 of which were receiving yards.

Oops of the Week

Oops Award

RB Eddie Lacy vs SEA

The Green Bay offense looked great last week and Eddie Lacy churned out 85 yards on 19 carries (4.5 yards per carry) and a touchdown.  But that was against a terrible Chicago Bears defense.  This week he gets the Seahawks who just held St. Louis to 48 yards on 18 carries to their running backs combined (2.6 yards per carry) last week.  In two games last year against Seattle, Eddie Lacy combined for 107 yards on 33 carries (3.2 yards per carry).  Lacy is projected for 13.6 fantasy points in week two, but I think he fails to meet that projection against a stout Seattle defense.  Green Bay was also 0-2 in those two games last year with their offense being held to their 2nd and 3rd lowest yardage totals of the year.

HELP ME FRIGGA

I got a few early questions this week via twitter, and while the one below may have already been resolved, it made for a good discussion regarding trade value.  So this week I chose the following question from @clockworkOj

As I said at the top of the article, Week 2 is a great week to make trades and waiver wire pickups, because so many team owners are jittery.  Everyone overreacts to what they just saw in week 1, and the sample size is way too small to discern any real trends.  In the trade proposal above you've got a solid #1 running back in Marshawn Lynch paired with a FLEX/backup receiver in Golden Tate.  Lynch has a lot of value on one side of the coin.  On the other side of the equation you've got a #2 running back in DeMarco Murray with question marks about usage, the 2nd best tight end in the league and an injured #1 receiver in Dez Bryant.  The real question here is, how long will Dez Bryant be out?  The current estimates have him missing anywhere from 6-12 weeks, with a more likely scenario being 8-12 weeks.  That puts him back in the mix at Week 9 at the earliest, or Week 13 at the latest.  At this point, he's a roster stash for an end of the year or playoff push.  That means you won't have Dez Bryant for the majority of the fantasy season, which puts his value pretty low.  Without knowing the details of the respective rosters, it's tough to make a call on whether this trade is fair, or which side wins out.  But in a vacuum, you have to decide if Murray and Graham are worth the same as Lynch, because Dez and Tate kind of cancel each other out.   If the Lynch owner is really weak at tight end, then this trade could be worth it as he takes a hit at running back downgrading Lynch for Murray, but improves the tight end position in return.  The Dez owner on the other hand is likely in panic mode. He just saw Murray lay an egg on Monday Night Football in terms of usage and yardage totals, and just lost Dez Bryant for most of the year (both were probably his top two picks).  His only other real fantasy asset is probably Jimmy Graham, and if he can secure a solid replacement, he's looking to swing Graham and Murray for an upgrade at RB to hopefully off-set the loss of Bryant.  Adding Golden Tate just helps shore up some depth.

In the end, I think the trade is pretty fair, but again, it really depends on the two rosters and how the trade helps or hurts each one.  When making a trade proposal, the best ones are a "win-win" for both teams.  If you have depth at a particular position and weakness at another, seek out a trade partner who has the opposite strengths and weaknesses at those same positions so that a trade can benefit both teams.  I recently traded Delanie Walker for Vincent Jackson in a standard 12-team league.  While Walker is a starting tight end, I'm also the Rob Gronkowski owner, and Gronk and Walker share the same BYE week. That makes Walker expendable, especially since I can easily add Kyle Rudolph to backup Gronk.  Meanwhile, Vincent Jackson is a #2/#3 receiver that was heavily targeted last week.  It remains to be seen if Winston can get him the ball, and the targets will surely decrease once Mike Evans returns, but if I had to start Walker or Jackson in the FLEX position, I'd take Jackson and his TD potential over the volume potential of Walker, since this is a standard league. My trade partner was especially weak at TE and had Vincent Jackson on his bench, so it was a win-win for both of us.

Daily Norseman Fantasy League

Last week I somehow found a way to win despite facing Rob Gronkowski and Jeremy Hill.  I got lucky as my opponent, Jackson McIntire, also got a grand total of 15.7 fantasy points combined from DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith, Doug Martin, Stephen Gostowski and the Houston Defense.  I'll take the win.  But here are the current standings:

Rank

Team

W-L-T

Pts For

Pts Against

Streak

Division 1

2

MarkSP18 - Jules Winnfield

1-0-0

161.72

144.04

W-1

6

vikingarmy - Zim Reaper

1-0-0

95.42

91.26

W-1

7

Christpher Gates - Joe Webb Still Sucks

0-1-0

144.04

161.72

L-1

12

Typically Lazy - The Blair Walsh Project

0-1-0

91.26

95.42

L-1

Division 2

3

TINO24 - Heath Miller Time (formerly Yankey Doodle Dandy)

1-0-0

147.82

103.04

W-1

4

Eric Thompson - 2 Glovez

1-0-0

145.5

113.5

W-1

8

Arif Hasan - We're Ball Wittenses

0-1-0

113.5

145.5

L-1

10

Viketoryordeath - MayTheNorseBeWithYou

0-1-0

103.04

147.82

L-1

Division 3

1

RedHat16 - CrisCarters FallGuys

1-0-0

174.64

95.2

W-1

5

CCNorseman - Diggs Darklighter

1-0-0

143.12

108.94

W-1

9

Jackson McIntire - Jackson's Team

0-1-0

108.94

143.12

L-1

11

DADAIR25 - HitmanHarry

0-1-0

95.2

174.64

L-1

If you're interested in joining my Week 2 Fanduel League, join here!  Unfortunately the league last week did not fill as we only got 13 of 20 participants.  So this week, I've lowered the total to 12 spots.  It's still a $2 entry fee and the top 4 finishers will earn a payout.  And lastly, if you're interested in fantasy advice, tweet at me with the hashtag #HelpMeFrigga with your question and it might be featured in the next article. Feel free to leave your sit/start questions in the comments below for myself and others to chime in.