Vikings 2016 Draft: Consensus Draft Rankings v2.0

With free agency a distant memory, the Vikings draft needs have begun to come into focus.  In addition, the NFL combine and college pro days are all finished as well.  With the NFL Draft just a few weeks away, now is the perfect time to update the Consensus Draft Rankings.  Due to my own commitments outside of volunteer blogging, this will be the last and only other update of the Consensus Rankings this year.  I will be comparing this second version of the rankings to the first one I did back in February to see how the combine and pro days have impacted the draft stock of various prospects.

And by the way, if you're interested, check out my fanpost from a few weeks ago that calculated the accuracy of the Consensus Draft Rankings.  To sum up the conclusion from that article, the Consensus Rankings aren't really any more accurate than any other typical draft ranking, but the value comes in capturing the "group think" element of player rankings.  Just as the mock draft database captures the group-think in mocking wide receiver Josh Doctson to the Vikings, the consensus rankings can also capture which players are likely to be available when the Vikings are on the clock at pick #23.  It also allows us to better analyze the actual draft, and make a note of when a team makes a pick that is outside of the group-think rankings (like taking a consensus 3^rd round graded player in the top 10), or when a consensus top 10 talent falls out of the first round.

With all of that said, the first version of the consensus rankings focused on the following positions: offensive tackle, offensive guard, wide receiver and safety.  Based on the most recent team needs analysis I'll be focusing the consensus draft rankings this time around to only two positions: wide receiver and safety (and of course providing the overall consensus ranking too).  I considered including defensive end, defensive tackle, offensive tackle and possibly linebacker, but due to available time I had to limit it to just the top two most glaring needs: wide receiver and safety.

This time around I tweaked the Big Boards that I used in an effort to perhaps capture a bit more accuracy.  As noted in the accuracy fanpost, the consensus rankings are only as good as the big boards that are chosen.  So this time I went with these eight big boards: NFL.com, ESPN, CBS, Draft Board Guru, Drafttek, Draft Countdown, NFL Rough Draft and Draft Ace.  This way I have captured the three "big media" rankings in NFL.com, ESPN and CBS and the other five are all within the top 25 rankings of the Huddle Report's 5-year average of "Most Accurate Top 100 Rankings" on the web (and four of those additional five fall within the six most accurate boards as well).  In order for a player to be included in the positional rankings below, they simply had to appear in the top 5 at their position on at least one big board ranking source.  So, let's start with the wide receivers, shall we?

2016 Draft - Consensus Wide Receiver Ranking
Name	School	Avg Pos.	S.D. Pos.	Avg Overall	S.D. Overall
1. Treadwell, Laquon	Mississippi	1.4	0.7	16.4	6.2
2. Coleman, Corey	Baylor	2.4	1.0	22.0	5.8
3. Doctson, Josh	TCU	2.8	0.4	26.1	4.1
4. Fuller, Will	Notre Dame	4.3	1.7	33.9	9.2
5. Thomas, Michael	Ohio State	5.9	1.6	44.9	11.2
6. Boyd, Tyler	Pittsburgh	6.5	1.0	50.5	5.6
7. Miller, Braxton	Ohio State	7.0	2.2	55.1	17.2
8. Shepard, Sterling	Oklahoma	7.4	1.5	58.3	12.6

Compared to first version of the consensus rankings (linked above) not much has changed in terms of the order of wide receivers, even after the combine and pro days.  I have to admit that I'm pretty surprised by that since a lot has been made of Laquan Treadwell's slow 40-yard dash time at his pro day.  In fact, he hasn't really moved at all in the big boards.  Right before the combine his overall average rank was 16.1, and on this one he averages out at 16.4 overall, just a minor, almost insignificant downgrade.  However, while Treadwell hasn't moved much in the rankings, Corey Coleman and Josh Doctson have been climbing.  Both were ranked 30^th and 37^th on average in version one respectively, and in version two they each climb up significantly to 22^nd and 26^th overall.  This means that both receivers have improved their draft stock from border-line 1^st/2^nd round picks to solid first round picks after the combine and pro days.

Having said all that, there are two names that end up ranking a little differently in this version: Michael Thomas and Braxton Miller.  In version 1, Thomas was the 7^th best receiver based on positional ranking averages, although his overall average should have slotted him in at 5^th.  In version 2, his overall average is actually a little lower, but he finishes where you would expect: as the 5^th receiver on the board.  That said, Thomas also has one of the higher standard deviations, meaning there is much less consensus about him in the rankings.  There is also a swap of names at the bottom of the list as Charone Peake falls off the ranking entirely, and is replaced by Sterling Shepherd.

So if the Vikings are looking for a receiver at pick #23, then they have a very good chance to land one of Treadwell, Docston or Coleman based on their overall rankings.  If all three are gone and they still want one of the other top receivers, their best bet would be to trade down to accumulate some additional draft ammo, and then try to snag Fuller, Thomas, Boyd or Miller at the bottom of the 1^st/top of the 2^nd.  There is a chance that Treadwell falls due to his slow 40-yard dash time, but if the online Big Boards aren't showing much of a drop in the rankings, chances are that NFL front offices aren't dropping him either.  Let's consider the safety class next.

2016 Draft - Consensus Safety Ranking
Name	School	Avg Pos.	SD Pos.	Avg Overall	SD Overall
1. Ramsey, Jalen S/CB	Florida State	1.0	0.0	2.3	1.2
2. Vonn, Bell	Ohio State	3.9	0.8	48.8	12.5
3. Cravens, Su'a S/OLB	USC	4.0	2.2	54.5	18.8
4. Joseph, Karl	West Virginia	4.6	1.8	50.4	14.6
5. Cash, Jeremy	Duke	5.1	1.5	65.3	21.4
6. Neal, Keanu	Florida	5.4	2.6	59.6	17.5
7. Thompson, Darian	Boise State	5.9	2.0	71.3	26.0
8. Mills, Jalen S/CB	LSU	7.1	2.1	84.9	35.7
9. Killebrew, Miles	Southern Utah	9.3	2.3	101.3	19.8
10. Simmons, Justin	Boston College	10.2	5.1	119.3	62.5

In this safety class there is Jalen Ramsey and everyone else, and Ramsey might not even play safety.  Speaking of Jalen Ramsey, not only is he the top defensive back on the board, he even improved his draft stock since the last ranking climbing from a 5.7 overall average rank to 2.3.  His draft spot is so solidified that his standard deviation is only 1.2 (even that is an improvement from the last version).  He is also the top player in the draft based on a couple of draft boards and the Vikings will have no chance what-so-ever to draft him.  But after Ramsey, the next highest ranked safety is merely 48^th overall, a downgrade from the previous consensus ranking.  In other words, this is a very weak safety class with no true blue-chip prospects.  Compared to the last ranking there has been a lot of change after Ramsey.  Vonn Bell has shot up the rankings improving from 53^rd overall to 48^th overall and jumping up from the 5^th best safety to the 2^nd best.  Darian Thompson has taken quite a tumble falling from 56^th overall in the previous version to 71^st overall in this update, and changing from the 4^th safety on the board to the 7^th.   Most of the other safeties on the board have been downgraded a few overall spots compared to the last ranking, perhaps a reflection of the perceived weakness of this safety class as a whole compared to other positions.

The upside is that with overall pick #54 in round 2, the Vikings should have a reasonable chance to draft one of the top safeties not named Jalen Ramsey.  Any of these players should be in play in the 2^nd round: Vonn Bell, Su'a Cravens, Karl Joseph, Jeremy Cash and Keanu Neal, because all of them are ranked similarly and within 17 draft slots of one another between 48^th and 65^th overall.  It's almost uncanny how the talent level lines up perfectly with our draft needs this year.

So based on the big board value and our team needs, I think it makes a ton of sense for the Vikings to target a wide receiver and the first round and a safety in the second.  But, that isn't necessarily what they will do.  Below is the overall consensus ranking to see who else might be available in the first round.  All of the players below were ranked at least 32^nd or higher on at least one big board source I considered, which lead me to a list of 53 total players that get a typical "1^st round grade" from at least one source (side note: yes I realize there are only 31 first round picks this year, but historically there are 32 picks in the first round, so for grading purposes I still used 32 as the cut-off).

2016 Draft - Overall Consensus Ranking
Name	School	Avg Overall	SD Overall
1. Tunsil, Laremy OT	Mississippi	1.9	1.6
2. Ramsey, Jalen CB	Florida State	2.3	1.2
3. Bosa, Joey DE	Ohio State	3.3	1.4
4. Jack, Myles OLB	UCLA	5.8	2.7
5. Buckner, DeForest DE	Oregon	6.6	4.1
6. Elliot, Ezekiel RB	Ohio State	6.6	2.6
7. Stanley, Ronnie OT	Notre Dame	9.1	1.6
8. Goff, Jared QB	California	10.1	4.8
9. Wentz, Carson QB	North Dakota State	13.1	10.6
10. Hargreaves, Vernon CB	Florida	14.0	6.4
11. Rankins, Sheldon DT	Louisville	15.4	8.3
12. Lawson, Shaq DE	Clemson	16.0	7.0
13. Treadwell, Laquon WR	Mississippi	16.3	6.3
14. Lee, Darron OLB	Ohio State	17.5	7.4
15. Robinson, A'Shawn DT	Alabama	17.9	6.3
16. Conklin, Jack OT	Michigan State	18.9	8.1
17. Ragland, Reggie ILB	Alabama	20.9	9.0
18. Decker, Taylor OT	Ohio State	21.1	10.7
19. Coleman, Corey WR	Baylor	22.0	5.8
20. Floyd, Leonard OLB	Georgia	23.4	10.9
21. Apple, Eli CB	Ohio State	25.3	7.3
22. Billings, Andrew NT	Baylor	25.4	6.9
23. Docston, Josh WR	TCU	26.1	4.1
24. Lynch, Paxton QB	Memphis	26.9	18.0
25. Alexander, Mckensie CB	Clemson	27.4	13.1
26. Reed, Jarran DT	Alabama	27.6	12.8
27. Dodd, Kevin DE	Clemson	28.6	7.4
28. Spence, Noah DE	Eastern Kentucky	28.8	9.9
29. Butler, Vernon DT	Louisiana Tech	28.9	8.8
30. Nkemdiche, Robert DT	Mississippi	31.1	16.3
31. Jackson, William CB	Houston	31.5	10.4
32. Fuller, Will WR	Notre Dame	33.9	9.2
33. Smith, Jaylon ILB/OLB	Notre Dame	38.4	32.2
34. Whitehair, Cody OG	Kansas State	38.5	14.1
35. Clark, Kenny DT	UCLA	39.0	6.1
36. Henry, Derrick RB	Alabama	39.4	9.3
37. Spriggs, Jason OT	Indiana	39.4	12.1
38. Ogbah, Emmanuel DE	Oklahoma State	40.3	15.2
39. Thomas, Michael WR	Ohio State	44.9	11.2
40. Kelly, Ryan C	Alabama	45.4	17.2
41. Bullard, Jonathan DE	Florida	46.0	17.4
42. Cook, Connor QB	Michigan State	46.5	15.9
43. Henry, Hunter TE	Arkansas	47.5	15.8
44. Jones, Chris DT	Mississippi State	48.1	18.9
45. Bell, Vonn S	Ohio State	48.8	12.5
46. Ifedi, Germain OT	Texas A&M	49.6	14.0
47. Joseph, Karl S	West Virginia	50.4	14.6
48. Cravens, Su'a S/LB	USC	54.5	18.8
49. Fuller, Kendall CB	Virginia Tech	55.0	13.8
50. Miller, Braxton WR	Ohio State	55.1	17.2
51. Perry, Josh LB	Ohio State	70.5	41.1
52. Thompson, Darian S	Boise State	71.3	26.0
53. Simmons, Justin S	Boston College	119.3	62.5

Would you look at that?  Josh Doctson comes in at pick #23 overall in the consensus big board ranking.  It must be fate.  Not only is he the player most commonly mocked to the Vikings at 23, his overall average value across eight different big boards has him slot in as the 23^rd player on the board too.  Granted the actual average is 26^th, but when he is ranked alongside all the other players, he comes out as the 23^rd player.  It's worth pointing out though that OLB Leonard Floyd has an average rank of 23, but his actual is a few slots higher at 20^th. Even so, if Leonard Floyd was on the board at #23, drafting him would fill a more long-term need for the team as well.  I do find it interesting that Doctson's standard deviation is so small, as if it's a foregone conclusion that he will be the 23^rd player off the board, and hence will be a Minnesota Viking.

I find it interesting that a bunch of safeties make the list towards the end of the rankings: Vonn Bell, Karl Joseph and Su'A Cravens.  That means that there is at least one source out there that views those players as 1^st round picks, despite the fact that on average they fall squarely in the 2^nd round.  Even Darian Thompson and Justin Simmons slip in as the final two players, who both average out as 3^rd and 4^th round selections.

Considering some of the other needs of the team there are other players that could be in play at #23 if the Vikings aren't enamored with Josh Doctson like everyone else in the media.  There are a pair of defensive tackles that are ranked right around #23: Andrew Billings and Jarran Reed.  They could also consider defensive ends Kevin Dodd and Noah Spence.  If the Vikings looked to beef up their defensive line, they could easily address wide receiver in the 2^nd round with a player like Braxton Miller or Tyler Boyd.  So while it may be fate for the Vikings to pick Josh Doctson in the first round, the reality is that there are many options, from taking a linebacker or defensive lineman, to trading down, or even trading up for an offensive lineman like Jack Conklin or Taylor Decker who are probably valued a little too highly to be in play at pick #23.  So below is a quick and dirty mock draft that is something OTHER than taking Josh Doctson in the first round.  In other words, if the Vikings were to take a different player, how would that impact the rest of the draft?  This mock uses parts of my consensus rankings above, Draft Board Guru's Top 100 big board and CBS to determine value (DBG is the 2^nd best rated Top 100 big board over the last five years according to the Huddle Report).

Quick and Dirty Mock Draft - No trades

Round 1, Pick #23: DT Andrew Billings, Baylor

Billings is a prototypical nose tackle, and at only age 21 he still has plenty of room for improvement, growth and development.  Already a dominating player at Baylor with All-Pro potential in the NFL, this would be a bit of a luxury pick with Linval Joseph already entrenched as the starting nose tackle.  But Billings might need to sit for a year or two to learn the NFL game.  Joseph's dead money number in 2018 (his age 29 year) is only $680K, meaning the team would be free to move on from Joseph and insert Billings into the lineup full-time and not be out much.  In the meantime Billings could rotate with Joseph for the next two years to learn the game.

Round 2, Pick #54: WR Braxton Miller, Ohio State

Miller is one of the most athletically gifted receivers in the draft, but is raw and still learning the position (sound like someone else who is already on the Vikings roster?).  If Patterson doesn't make the jump to being able to player receiver effectively and turns into "Devin Hester 2.0", I would question keeping him around.  With the NFL increasingly de-valuing kickoffs year after year it makes the position of kick returner almost irrelevant.  So if we move on from Patterson after this year, Miller would become the de-facto "raw, athletic receiver with upside" on the team.  But like Patterson, if he can learn the nuances of the game, his ceiling is sky high.

Round 3, Pick #86: OT Gerald Hawkins, LSU

Hawkins is a mammoth tackle measuring 6'6" and 305 pounds, and as a junior he likely has room to fill in and develop even more.  Hawkins was kind of the forgotten man on an excellent LSU offensive line that featured La'el Collins and Vadal Alexander in last year's draft.  He's an incredible athlete who played all four sports in high school and projects as a left tackle in the NFL.  This would be an excellent pick to stash behind Matt Kalil for developmental insurance.

Round 4, Pick #121: OLB Nick Vigil, Utah State

Vigil is another "athlete" type player (which seems to be the trend in this mock so far).  A small-school stand-out, his brother made the Dolphins roster as an undrafted free agent.  Vigil is probably more suited for a WLB role in a 4-3 alignment, and like the players above, as a junior, he might need a year of seasoning behind Chad Greenway to learn the system and the NFL game.  But his agility, speed and instincts are excellent.

Round 5, Pick #160: QB Kevin Hogan, Stanford

This might seem like a strange pick with Bridgewater and Shaun Hill already on the roster, but Hill is getting old and may not have too many years left.  The Vikings will need to start considering a better backup to Teddy.  Perhaps Heinieke can make the jump to "backup QB" status in the future, but adding competition at a difficult to find position is always smart.  Hogan scores very well in the QB Metric I developed a few years ago, and if he falls this far in the draft (CBS has him ranked at 165 overall), this would be excellent value.  He certainly has the potential to become a starting quarterback in the NFL with a rocket arm and decent accuracy, and he was the successor to Andrew Luck at Stanford.

Round 6, Pick #180 (from SF): WR Chris Moore, Cincinnati

Moore has prototypical size and speed for an NFL receiver, and excelled as a deep threat for Cincinnati.  He's not a complete receiver yet, but he's another lottery ticket at a depleted position on the roster.

Round 6, Pick #198 (from SD): SS Derrick Kindred, TCU

By going Billings in the first, and then forcing me to go Miller in the 2^nd, it's caused me to be "out of synch" with the safety position.  In other words, where the safeties are ranked on the big boards in the later rounds don't line up with our draft position at all. But finally at this point in the draft the safety position is addressed.  Kindred likely profiles as more of a special teamer at the NFL level, but he's a "tough guy" player that played through a broken collarbone all last year and still started all 13 games racking up 87 tackles, five passes defended and two interceptions.  He lacks good coverage skills, but seems like a poor man's Andrew Sendejo.

Round 7, Pick #240 (from Buffalo): FS Deon Bush, Miami

This is simply another late-round lottery ticket at a position of need.  Bush was a productive safety at Miami, and is tall with excellent athleticism with experience playing all over the field: blitzing, run support, single high coverage and in the slot.  He may turn out to be nothing but a special teams prospect, but his versatile experience and prototypical size and athleticism could lead him to develop into a decent NFL safety.

Round 7, Pick #244: OG/C Darrell Greene, San Diego State

Greene was thought of as a top offensive line prospect until he was suspended for failing a drug test.  He has excellent burst off the line, but shorter arms may result in a kick to the inside center position.  As a 7^th round lottery ticket Greene is the type of player that could develop into a swing, backup ala Joe Berger, or eventually grow into a starting position down the line, assuming his drug issues are behind him.

I think this mock draft does a decent job of both addressing needs and finding good value throughout.  I kept on the lookout for a defensive prospect, but didn't find one I was enamoured with.  Spielman seems to like his 3rd-4th round defensive ends, and unfortunately I didn't go that direction with this mock.  In any case, what are your thoughts?  Love it?  Hate it?  Let us know in the comments.