So I'm kind of digging this Fanspeak mock draft trade simulator. I am fully aware that this draft will be nothing like the actual draft, but as we get closer to the draft I'm trying to mimic what GM Rick Spielman would do, both in terms of trades and players he would select.
Well, as to the last part, there's some personal bias here, because players I like aren't necessarily going to be players Rick Spielman and the Vikings would like. We do know what the Vikings needs are, primarily WR and S. In the early rounds I'm looking for best player available, but I'm also balancing that against team needs. Based on what Minnesota did in free agency, I'm still looking for an offensive lineman and a linebacker, but if all things are equal, I'm going to fill needs at WR and S first, unless something ridiculous happens, like a Laremy Tunsil begins free falling.
For this mock draft simulation, I used the Fan Speak mock draft simulator, with trades, and I also used the Fan Speak big board, as it was the most recently updated one. I'll outline my thinking going in to each round, and discuss why I accepted or rejected any trade offers. I'll also offer my reasoning for each trade proposal I offered.
When I'm on the clock, I'll show you who the top 15 players available were, who I selected, and why. So, let's do this.
Round 1:
Set up: Before the draft even began, I had two trade offers. They were:
Neither of these offers really did much for me. I don't think there's one player worth trading up for, at least into the mid-teens, so I wasn't interested in the Tennessee offer. Accepting Tampa Bay's offer now gives me 2 second and 2 third round picks, but I drop all the way out of the first round, and nearly out of the top 10 of round two. Depending on how the draft falls, I feel confident I can get either Laquon Treadwell or Josh Doctson at 23, but not in round two, so I'll pass. I'll still look for a trade down, but not out of round one.
The draft unfolded, and when I got on the clock, I received these offers:
these are a lot of picks to reject, but I turned down both trades. As I had suspected, Treadwell and Doctson were still around, and I felt strongly neither one would be around with the 19th pick of the 2nd round, much less the 29th pick. These were the top 15:
My personal rankings for WR's goes Treadwell, Michael Thomas, and then Doctson, and since I don't have a dance partner to drop about three or four spots, I'm going to stand pat and make a pick. With my top receiver sitting on the board the choice is pretty clear.
Selection 1-23: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ol' Miss.
Reasoning: Treadwell is the best receiver in this draft, and the Vikings benefit from another good player that had a sub-par Pro Day. I would have risked a trade down in the first round, but since there were no offers to do so, I'll take Treadwell and be pretty doggone happy about it.
Round 2:
Set up: Now I'm looking for a safety, but I'm also keeping an eye out for a top notch talent that might have slipped. for whatever reason. I get no trade offers, so when I get on the clock, my top 15 looks like this:
Since I'm looking for a safety, the top safeties still on the board are:
The only players ahead of the safety position are guys in positions I don't need, like Derrick Henry, or WR's, which I addressed in round one. So I'm going to go safety here, and I think Vonn Bell is better than Karl Joseph.
Selection 2-54: Vonn Bell, S, Ohio State
Reasoning: With my top two picks, I address my top two positions of need. You can argue that offensive line is still an issue, and I'll still be looking to upgrade, but at least the Vikings tried to address the line in free agency. Yes, they signed Michael Griffin at safety, but I don't see him as a long term answer. Now I can wheel and deal for guys I want, or just stand pat, let the draft come to me, and get the BPA in each round.
Round 3:
Set up: I know the Vikings have said they're looking at interior defensive linemen, and there have been rumors floating around that they would even go get a DT in round one. Although I don't think they want a guy in round one unless the draft falls funny, I still think they go after one. I'm not looking to make a move, but I'll entertain offers. Alas, none come my way, so I let the board play out. When I go on the clock, the big board looks like this:
Landon Turner is a possibility here, but the guard spot on the offensive line is solid. The BPA is TE Nick Vannett, but I'm going to give Kyle Rudolph one more year. And honestly, if he doesn't pan out, I like MyCole Pruitt a lot. Instead, I spy a defensive tackle that I like, with a first name that has so much potential for jokes I can't help myself:
Selection 3-86: Jihad Ward, DT, Illinois
Reasoning: Although Shariff Floyd has played well at times, he's had a couple of nagging injuries and been somewhat inconsistent. Tom Johnson has been one of the better backups in the NFL, and a four man rotation of Linval Joseph, Floyd, Johnson, and Ward gives the Vikings a ton of options on the inside, and quality players four deep.
Round 4:
The set up: I'm keeping an eye on a certain player in this round, and I think that based on his injury history, I might even be able to trade down a few spots and still nab him. I didn't get any offers before the round began, but when I was on the clock, I had two proposals come my way:
I don't like the Eagles move, because I fall completely out of the fourth round. I am leery about accepting the Bears offer, because they're a division rival, but this is almost a textbook Spielman-type deal--drop 5-6 spots and still get an out year pick you can pocket for future deals. I think I can make this move and still get the guy I want, so I accept the trade.
As soon as I make the trade, I get two more offers:
Nope, no thanks. The guy I want is still on the board, he's an absolute steal, and there's no way, none, that he hangs around until late in the fifth round. He's my top rated player on the board right now, so everything else is moot (this is a lame excuse to say I forgot to take a top 15 screen shot. Sorry)
Selection 4-127: Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame
Reasoning: A classic Spielman trade lands a classic Spielman mid round pick. The Vikings recent history is one of taking talented guys with an injury question mark, and seeing what pans out. A first, second, or third round pick would be too risky for Smith, but I'd take a fourth round flyer on a guy with this kind of potential in a heartbeat. No, he won't play in 2016, but if he comes back healthy in 2017, you're looking at the best linebacker in this draft...in the fourth round? Teamed up with Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr?
Round 5:
The set up: I'm looking at BPA now, and Scooby Wright is an option here. I'm still looking to go offensive line, but there's no one that really stands out to me, and that group got the most attention in free agency so it's not critical. With my biggest needs addressed, and no 'need' positions right at the top of my big board, I can afford to look at a guy at a position that might be off the radar. Here's my top 15:
Selection 5-160: Cardale Jones, QB, Ohio State
Reasoning: With Teddy Bridgewater entering his third year, I think he's past the point of needing a veteran mentor to back him up. When Shaun Hill had to come in and play after Bridgewater got knocked out of the Rams game last year, he was really ineffective and the Vikings offense lagged. I'm not drafting Jones to replace Teddy; Teddy's my guy, and I'm going to sign him to an extension when the time comes. But if something goes south in either his development or contract negotiations, by then I can look at Jones as a guy that can spot start or take over.
Round 6:
The set up: I really don't need anything, and these last two rounds are going to be BPA, or guys I want to target. The top 15:
Selection 6-180: Antwaun Woods, DT, USC
Reasoning: Austin Blythe would be an option here, but the interior line is actually a strength. If I was going to draft an offensive lineman here, I would go tackle. Woods is a guy that I think the Vikings would like, and give them another defensive lineman to compete.
Round 7:
The set up: I want another wide receiver. My intent was to get one in the fourth or fifth round, but the value I got from Smith and Jones was too good to pass up, and I got Treadwell in round one.
I also believe that this guy is going to be gone early in the seventh round, so I want to make an aggressive move up to the top pick of the seventh round. I offer Tennessee my two seventh round picks, 240 and 244, and a future 7th round pick, for the first pick in the seventh, 222 overall. They accepted, and my big board looks like this:
Selection 7-222: Jalin Marshall, WR, Ohio State
Reasoning: I make a move for a guy that reminds me a lot of Stefon Diggs, but I don't think he'll be around by the time the first of my seventh round picks comes around. Marshall is an explosive guy, and is a versatile receiver and punt returner. And assuming the fifth round pick I got in the Bears trade back in round four and this seventh round pick are in the same year, I have the same amount of picks heading into 2017.
Let's recap. The 2016 Vikings Mock DrafTed class, 4.0:
The good: Laquon Treadwell and Vonn Bell are arguably one the two best players at their respective position, and the Vikings addressed their two biggest needs in the first two rounds. Getting Jaylon Smith in the fourth round could turn out to be the biggest steal in this draft, and Jihad Ward...what a great name. Imagine him sacking Aaron Rodgers...BAH GAWD KING, JIHAD WARD JUST COMMITTED A FATWA ON RODGERS...seriously, that's funny, I don't care who you are.
The JEEZ YOU ARE SUCH A HOMER: Jones and Marshall from Ohio State. I get it, but I explained my reasoning. Jones is a huge steal in the fifth, and is probably the most athletic quarterback in the entire draft. He needs time to sit and learn, but it's the perfect situation for a guy like him and the Vikings need to bolster their backup QB position. For Marshall, his athleticism is too good to pass up, and unlike Byron Marshall, there's no injury history to have to worry about.
So there you go, 4.0 is in the books. I'll try and get one more mock done before the actual thing, because, you know, you can't have enough mock drafts, AMIRITE?