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How Accurate Has The Mock Draft Database Been?

This is the fourth year that we've been compiling a Mock Draft Database for the Minnesota Vikings leading up to the NFL Draft. I found it to be an interesting way to see what experts around the internet think that our favorite football team is going to be doing with their first-round choice in a given draft. It's nice to have everything in one place, too, I think.

But has the Mock Draft Database. . .and, more over, the internet at large. . .been an accurate predictor of how the Minnesota Vikings have selected in the NFL Draft? Well, let's take a look back over the past few Databases we've done and find out.

2015 Mock Draft Database

We'll start with a pretty easy one. The Vikings were selecting at #11 overall in the 2015 NFL Draft, and they had a few pretty specific needs. The biggest needs were at cornerback, where the team was looking for someone to potentially pair with Xavier Rhodes, and wide receiver, where they were likely going to part ways with Greg Jennings and needed to provide a new target for Teddy Bridgewater.

The final Mock Draft Database for 2015 had 17 different players projected to go to the Vikings at #11, but there was one runaway winner in cornerback Trae Waynes. Here are all of the players that were projected to the purple in that final edition of the Mock Draft Database:

Player Percentage of Picks Final Draft Position
Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State 46% 11th overall (MIN)
DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville 19% 14th overall (MIA)
Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa 10% 5th overall (WAS)
Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia 3% 10th overall (STL)
Kevin White, WR, West Virginia 3% 7th overall (CHI)
Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama 3% 4th overall (OAK)
Shane Ray, DE, Missouri 3% 23rd overall (DEN)
Marcus Peters, CB, Washington 3% 18th overall (KC)
La'el Collins, G, Louisiana State 2% UDFA
Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma 1% 40th overall (TEN)
Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest 1% 16th overall (HOU)
Landon Collins, S, Alabama 1% 33rd overall (NYG)
Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford 1% 13th overall (NO)
Alvin Dupree, DE, Kentucky 1% 22nd overall (PIT)
Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska 1% 60th overall (DAL)
Vic Beasley, LB, Clemson 1% 8th overall (ATL)
Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin 1% 17th overall (SD)

In the case of last year's Mock Draft Database, to borrow from a popular meme, obvious choice was obvious. The Vikings got locked onto Waynes early on in the process, knowing that he was a player that was going to need some time to make an adjustment at the NFL level. He got some playing time towards the end of last season and asserted himself pretty well. Hopefully he'll be able to carry that into the 2016 NFL season.

2014 Mock Draft Database

The Vikings held the #8 overall pick going into the draft, and the prevailing wisdom was that they were going to pursue a quarterback. There were plenty of players projected to the team at other positions as well, but the overwhelming majority of projections had them going with a quarterback.

The final version of the Mock Draft Database for that year had 13 different players projected to go to the Vikings in the 103 selections. . .still don't know why I decided on an uneven number that year. . .in that year's draft. Here's what the final tally looked like:

Player Percentage of Picks Final Draft Position
Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida 32% 3rd overall (JAX)
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville 18.4% 32nd overall (MIN)*
Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M 12.6% 22nd overall (CLE)
Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State 9.7% 36th overall (OAK)
Anthony Barr, LB, UCLA 7.8% 9th overall (MIN)
C.J. Mosley, LB, Alabama 5.8% 17th overall (BAL)
Khalil Mack, LB, Buffalo 3.9% 5th overall (OAK)
Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State 1.9% 8th overall (CLE)
Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State 1.9% 24th overall (CIN)
Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh 1.9% 13th overall (STL)
Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson 1.9% 4th overall (BUF)
Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama 1% 21st overall (GB)
Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech 1% 14th overall (CHI)

Naturally, we had no way of knowing that the Vikings were going to trade back into the first round to select Bridgewater. Of course, they traded down one spot to take Barr, too, allowing the Browns the "privilege" of moving up for Justin Gilbert. But the consensus in 2014, as opposed to 2015, was significantly off. . .the Vikings could have taken a quarterback right away, but Rick Spielman decided to roll the dice, obviously feeling that he could maneuver to get one later, and that's exactly what happened.

2013 Mock Draft Database

The first edition of the Mock Draft Database gave us a bit of a weird situation, as after six weeks of Rick Spielman declaring that the Minnesota Vikings had no intention of trading Percy Harvin. . .the Minnesota Vikings traded Percy Harvin. That gave the Vikings not only their first-round selection, #23 overall, but the Seattle Seahawks' first-round selection at #25. So, we wound up taking a break to allow mock drafts around the internet to catch up with the fact that the Vikings now had two picks in the first round of the selection process.

By the time the final version of the 2013 Mock Draft Database came around, there had been a whopping 40 different players projected to the Vikings at either #23 or #25 overall. We wound up with 197 selections overall (thanks to a couple of mocks deciding the Vikings were going to trade again), and 26 different players appearing in the final version of the Database.

Player Percentage of Picks Final Draft Position
Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame 22.8% 38th overall (SD)
Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina 14.2% 28th overall (DEN)
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee 8.6% 29th overall (MIN)*
Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington 7.1% 22nd overall (ATL)
Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee 6.6% 34th overall (TEN)
Keenan Allen, WR, California 5.1% 76th overall (SD)
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson 4.1% 27th overall (HOU)
Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State 3.6% 25th overall (MIN)
Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State 3.6% 24th overall (IND)
Robert Woods, WR, Southern Cal 3% 41st overall (BUF)
Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia 3% 30th overall (STL)
Datone Jones, DE, UCLA 2% 26th overall (GB)
Kevin Minter, LB, Louisiana State 2% 45th overall (ARI)
Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri 2% 13th overall (NYJ)
Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia 1.5% 8th overall (STL)
Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State 1.5% 56th overall (BAL)
Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama 1.5% 137th overall (SEA)
Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State 1.5% 40th overall (SF)
Matt Elam, S, Florida 1% 32nd overall (BAL)
D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston 1% 12th overall (OAK)
Kawann Short, DT, Purdue LT 1% 44th overall (CAR)
Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida Atlantic LT 1% 33rd overall (JAX)
John Jenkins, DT, Georgia LT 1% 82nd overall (NO)
Johnthan Hankins, DT, Ohio State LT 1% 49th overall (NYG)
Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia LT 1% 17th overall (PIT)
Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida LT 1% 23rd overall (MIN)

That's 26 different players that were projected to the Minnesota Vikings at some point in that process. Floyd, for the most part, was projected to be a Top 5 selection, and specifically at #3 overall to the Oakland Raiders. There were plenty of folks that thought that the Vikings were going to be taking a wide receiver, and they did. . .but only after they traded up for a third first-round selection to grab Cordarrelle Patterson.

So, the Mock Draft Database has been a bit hit-or-miss over the three years we've done it. When the Vikings had an obvious need and a high selection, the draftniks around the internet nailed the pick pretty solidly. As you get further down in the draft order, you're obviously going to get a bit more variance, as we see in the 2013 Draft.

How is the 2016 Mock Draft Database going to fare? Well, if you're a fan of Josh Doctson or Laquon Treadwell, you're probably hoping for a repeat of last season. Otherwise, you're hoping that the variance and unpredictability of GMs across the league comes into play again like it did in 2013.

In just a few days, we're going to know just how accurate this year's Mock Draft Database was.