We know that the Minnesota Vikings don’t have a pick in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft, thanks to their trade that sent Sam Bradford to the Vikings from the Philadelphia Eagles. We also know that Vikings’ GM Rick Spielman has a history of moving back up into the first round of the draft. . .at least he used to, anyway.
Since we’re still over two months away from Draft Weekend, there will likely be speculation that the Vikings would like to move back up into the first round of this year’s draft. Do they have the ammo to do it?
They probably do. . .but there’s a serious question about whether or not it would be worth it.
For this, it’s time to break out the venerable NFL Draft Pick value chart for the first time this year. (My first time this year, in any case.) Depending on how the coin toss for the pick the Vikings sent to Philadelphia goes, the Vikings’ second round pick would be at either #46 or #48 overall. If the Vikings “lose” their coin toss, it would be at #46, while it would be at #48 if the. . .meaning the Eagles. . .won it. The difference between the two spots is only 20 draft value points, which really isn’t all that big a deal.
The Vikings pick in the second round would be worth either 420 or 440 points on the chart. Their third round picks are at #80 (or thereabout, based on the coin toss again) and #86, and those picks are worth 190 and 160 points, respectively. If you add the value of those two picks together, they’d be worth about tree fiddy. If the Vikings wanted to package both of their third round selections along with their second rounder to move back into Round 1, the highest they could move up. . .if we adhere strictly to the chart. . .would be the New York Giants’ selection at #23.
With the holes the Vikings have to fill and the positions that those holes are at, is it worth giving up an opportunity to select three players to select one towards the end of the first round? I would suggest that it is not.
If the Vikings wanted to give up just one of their third round picks to try to move up, they would only be able to move up to the tail end of Round 1. The combination of their second round pick and just one of their thirds would be anywhere from 580 and 650 points. The latter would get them to one of the last three picks in Round 1, which belong to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Atlanta Falcons, and the New England Patriots.
(Yes, Green Bay’s pick at #29 is worth 640 “points,” but seriously. . .you think they’re doing a deal that early in the draft with a division rival?)
The Vikings could potentially throw in one of their mid-round selections in order to move up if they wanted to, but again, if this team is looking for offensive line help, the middle rounds will likely be where they find it. I don’t think that Rick Spielman is going to be giving up a bevy of third and fourth round picks in order to take a swing at a guy in the first round.
Spielman has often said that he likes to have ten selections in every draft. With the two extra picks he acquired from the Miami Dolphins in last year’s draft, the team still has eight even without a first round selection. With that in mind, in addition to the fact that the mathematics don’t seem to work out favorably for the purple, I would be surprised to see the Vikings move back into Round 1. Sure, it might make the Thursday night of Draft Weekend a little boring, but Friday and Saturday are still going to be a lot of fun to watch.