2017 NFL Draft Consensus Rankings

The NFL Draft is one week away, and I don't know about you, but my excitement level has been at an all-time low. Maybe it's the lack of a 1^st round pick that leaves me slightly disinterested this year, especially after being spoiled with multiple 1^st round picks the past few years.  Or maybe it's the lack of off-season drama (which is actually a good thing).  Whatever it is, I'm trying to get myself motivated to care about the NFL draft this year and in an effort to do that, I went ahead and crafted the one and only Consensus Draft Ranking of the year.

As I determined last year, the value in doing these consensus rankings is in its ability to capture "group-think" in the draftnik community.  These rankings really aren't any more accurate than any other ranking, but what it does is identify trends among some of the best Top 100 boards available on the web.  Using Huddle Report's 5-year Top 100 scores, I averaged together seven of the top 10 rankers to arrive at a consensus ranking.  I narrowed down the lists to each one's top 75, and after including every player that appeared on at least one of those seven Top 75 lists, I ended up with a total list of 113 players.

There are several "needs" the Vikings have, and I'm sure there will be some disagreement on which roster spots need to be filled the most, but in my opinion there are three that stand out above the rest, simply because there isn't currently a reliable starter at those positions.  They are Right Guard, Outside Linebacker and Defensive Tackle.  With the team cutting Brandon Fusco and the retirement of Chad Greenway, the Vikings lost two starters from last year, and to date, they haven't really addressed either position.  Yes, we have some backups from last year that could step into those roles like Jeremiah Sirles (or sliding Joe Berger to guard and starting Nick Easton at center) and Emmanuel Lamur or Edmund Robinson, but none of those players have significant starting experience.  In the case of defensive tackle, we may end up losing Shariff Floyd due to complications with knee surgery, and it remains to be seen how effective Tom Johnson will be in his return from a major injury as well.  Losing potentially both starters at the defensive tackle position would be a pretty big deal too.  That said, we do have options in moving Brian Robison inside in a pass rushing role with Danielle Hunter on the outside, and Shamar Stephen has looked good in limited action too.

I think the team has some other less pressing needs that I hope they address in the draft, like a more long-term running back, depth at wide receiver, offensive tackle, tight end and cornerback.  And we could probably use a backup quarterback depending on Teddy's progress.  But the Vikings will have to commit serious draft capital to Right Guard, Linebacker and Defensive Tackle first and foremost.  So, the consensus rankings will focus on those three positions as well as a look at the overall list.

Let's start with Right Guard, shall we?  There are seven players that popped up in the Consensus Rankings Top 75 with the ability to play guard.  The following table shows their average overall rank and the standard deviation of that rank (a smaller standard deviation number means that there was greater consensus for that average ranking, while a larger number means there was less consensus).

If we're looking for value with the 48^th pick, look no further than Dan Feeney.  It just so happens that Feeney was also the player the Daily Norseman writers selected with the 48^th pick in the SB Nation Writers Mock Draft earlier in the week.  While Forrest Lamp and Cam Robinson would be better prospects than Dan Feeney, the odds of either of them lasting to pick #48 in the 2^nd round are slim to none based on their high average rankings.  That said, the standard deviation on Feeney is pretty high, so there's not a ton of consensus with his 47^th ranking.  One source ranked Feeney as high as 32^nd overall, while another ranked him as low as 65^th overall.  If Feeney is gone by pick #48, it would be wise for the Vikings to hold off and try to snag one of Dorian Johnson or Pat Elfein who could maybe fall to them with pick #79 in the 3^rd round (or they could possibly move up in the early 3^rd to ensure they get one of them).  The talent level at guard after Elfein drops like a rock.  If they don't get one of these top 6 or 7 players, it's not a given that another player would be ready to come in and start day 1 in the mid-to-late rounds.  And with the roster the way it currently is constructed, the Vikings really need to come out of this draft with a starting right guard.

Next up, let's look at defensive tackle.  This is where things could get interesting, so check out the table below which includes nine different possibilities.

We can forget about Jonathan Allen and Malik McDowell, as both will more than likely go in the 1^st round.  But Caleb Brantley and Chris Wormley are definitely in play for the Vikings with the 48^th pick.  Both would not represent the best value in that their average ranks are significantly lower than 48^th, but that means the Vikings could potentially trade back in the 2^nd round and land one of them while acquiring more picks.  Or, they could stand pat and reach a little bit.  The past few weeks we've seen DT Caleb Brantley mocked to the Vikings in the 2^nd round, including by the "great" Mel Kiper.  But what might be smarter is to wait until the 3^rd round and grab either Larry Ogunjobi or Montravius Adams with pick #79, or even Carlos Watkins with pick #86.  All of them would be perfect matches in terms of value and likelihood of being available.  Heck, even Nazair Jones is in play with their #121 or #129 pick in the 4^th round.  There are lots of possibilities for the Vikings to land one of these top 9 defensive tackles.

Lastly, let's consider linebacker. One weakness here is that the ranking did not distinguish between inside linebacker and outside linebacker, so take this with a grain of salt.  Having said that, there are ten prospects, making this the largest position group of the three top needs for the Vikings.  Below are the average ranks for linebackers.

My first reaction is that there are five players ranked well ahead of the Vikings 48^th pick.  I'm not sure how many other teams have a need at linebacker, but if one of those five players fell to the Vikings, they should seriously consider taking one in the 2^nd round.  Still, a player like TJ Watt or Raekwon McMillan is certainly a viable possibility with the 48th overall pick even if one of the top guys doesn't fall.  However, in the SB Nation Mock that very scenario played out as Jarrad Davis was on the board when we came on the clock at pick #48.   Based on the overall ranks, the talent level appears to drop off pretty fast after those first five or six players.  In terms of a round to target, Duke Riley or Alex Anzalone slot in pretty well with our second 3^rd round pick (#86 overall) and Anthony Walker could be in play in the early 4^th round (#121 overall).  So there are lots of possibilities for the Vikings to acquire a good linebacker in this draft.

It remains to be seen who might be available at pick #48 and who the Vikings will ultimately draft, but here is a quick snapshot of players ranked #38-58 overall.  If the group-think consensus rankings have captured the overall rankings of NFL front offices at least a little bit, then the odds are high that the Vikings would draft one of the players on the following list:

There is almost zero chance that the NFL drafts players in the exact order of the Consensus Rankings, but if they did, guess who slots in at #48 on the nose?  WR Curtis Samuel, someone our very own Ted Glover has announced as the "One Player He Wants."  I'm sure Ted would be over-joyed to see Samuel end up in Purple, and I have to admit, I wouldn't be mad to see it either.  But there are several names that have been mocked and/or linked to the Vikings on this list like running backs Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon, and the aforementioned Dan Feeney and Caleb Brantley.  I think all are good possibilities that would address needs for the team.  So what would I do if I were running the Vikings?  Well, using the information in the Consensus Ranks, along with what I perceive as the greatest needs of the team, here is a quick and easy, no trades mock draft.

Round 2, Pick No. 48: G Dan Feeney, Indiana

Round 3, Pick No. 79: DT Larry Ogunjobi, Charlotte

Round 3, Pick No. 86 (from Miami): LB Duke Riley, LSU

Round 4, Pick No. 121: RB Wayne Gallman, Clemson

Round 4, Pick No. 129 (from Miami): WR Mack Hollins, North Carolina

Round 5, Pick No. 160: TE Michael Roberts, Toledo

Round 6, Pick No. 199: OT Avery Gennesy, Texas A&M

Round 7, Pick No. 232: QB CJ Beatherd, Iowa (HOMER ALERT!)

And finally, what Consensus Ranking would be complete without the entire listing?  For the curious I used the following sources: CBS, NFL.com, Draft Guru, Draft Ace, NFL Rough Draft, Draft Countdown and the Huddle Report.  All seven sources have a Top 10 score average over the past 5 years with their Top 100 boards on the Huddle Report.

This might be the first time ever that the #1 overall pick came in with a 0 standard deviation.  That's right, Myles Garrett is the Consensus #1 overall pick across all seven rankings. Cleveland couldn't possibly be dumb enough to pass on him, right?