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2017 NFL Draft Consensus Rankings

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CCNorseman has come out of hibernation long enough to whip together a Consensus Rankings here at the Daily Norseman, just in time for the NFL Draft.

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The NFL Draft is one week away, and I don't know about you, but my excitement level has been at an all-time low. Maybe it's the lack of a 1st round pick that leaves me slightly disinterested this year, especially after being spoiled with multiple 1st round picks the past few years.  Or maybe it's the lack of off-season drama (which is actually a good thing).  Whatever it is, I'm trying to get myself motivated to care about the NFL draft this year and in an effort to do that, I went ahead and crafted the one and only Consensus Draft Ranking of the year.

As I determined last year, the value in doing these consensus rankings is in its ability to capture "group-think" in the draftnik community.  These rankings really aren't any more accurate than any other ranking, but what it does is identify trends among some of the best Top 100 boards available on the web.  Using Huddle Report's 5-year Top 100 scores, I averaged together seven of the top 10 rankers to arrive at a consensus ranking.  I narrowed down the lists to each one's top 75, and after including every player that appeared on at least one of those seven Top 75 lists, I ended up with a total list of 113 players.

There are several "needs" the Vikings have, and I'm sure there will be some disagreement on which roster spots need to be filled the most, but in my opinion there are three that stand out above the rest, simply because there isn't currently a reliable starter at those positions.  They are Right Guard, Outside Linebacker and Defensive Tackle.  With the team cutting Brandon Fusco and the retirement of Chad Greenway, the Vikings lost two starters from last year, and to date, they haven't really addressed either position.  Yes, we have some backups from last year that could step into those roles like Jeremiah Sirles (or sliding Joe Berger to guard and starting Nick Easton at center) and Emmanuel Lamur or Edmund Robinson, but none of those players have significant starting experience.  In the case of defensive tackle, we may end up losing Shariff Floyd due to complications with knee surgery, and it remains to be seen how effective Tom Johnson will be in his return from a major injury as well.  Losing potentially both starters at the defensive tackle position would be a pretty big deal too.  That said, we do have options in moving Brian Robison inside in a pass rushing role with Danielle Hunter on the outside, and Shamar Stephen has looked good in limited action too.

I think the team has some other less pressing needs that I hope they address in the draft, like a more long-term running back, depth at wide receiver, offensive tackle, tight end and cornerback.  And we could probably use a backup quarterback depending on Teddy's progress.  But the Vikings will have to commit serious draft capital to Right Guard, Linebacker and Defensive Tackle first and foremost.  So, the consensus rankings will focus on those three positions as well as a look at the overall list.

Let's start with Right Guard, shall we?  There are seven players that popped up in the Consensus Rankings Top 75 with the ability to play guard.  The following table shows their average overall rank and the standard deviation of that rank (a smaller standard deviation number means that there was greater consensus for that average ranking, while a larger number means there was less consensus).

Rank

Name

Position

School

Average Rank

Std. Dev.

1

Forrest Lamp

OG/OT

Western Kentucky

19.42857143

5.421047417

2

Cam Robinson

OT/G

Alabama

23.28571429

6.2040145

3

Dan Feeney

OG

Indiana

47.42857143

10.8871765

4

Dion Dawkins

OG/OT

Temple

59.5

3.774917218

5

Dorian Johnson

OG

Pittsburgh

63.71428571

9.4674523

6

Pat Elflein

C/OG

Ohio State

65.71428571

13.86376867

7

Isaac Asiata

OG

Utah

117.4

44.41441208

If we're looking for value with the 48th pick, look no further than Dan Feeney.  It just so happens that Feeney was also the player the Daily Norseman writers selected with the 48th pick in the SB Nation Writers Mock Draft earlier in the week.  While Forrest Lamp and Cam Robinson would be better prospects than Dan Feeney, the odds of either of them lasting to pick #48 in the 2nd round are slim to none based on their high average rankings.  That said, the standard deviation on Feeney is pretty high, so there's not a ton of consensus with his 47th ranking.  One source ranked Feeney as high as 32nd overall, while another ranked him as low as 65th overall.  If Feeney is gone by pick #48, it would be wise for the Vikings to hold off and try to snag one of Dorian Johnson or Pat Elfein who could maybe fall to them with pick #79 in the 3rd round (or they could possibly move up in the early 3rd to ensure they get one of them).  The talent level at guard after Elfein drops like a rock.  If they don't get one of these top 6 or 7 players, it's not a given that another player would be ready to come in and start day 1 in the mid-to-late rounds.  And with the roster the way it currently is constructed, the Vikings really need to come out of this draft with a starting right guard.

Next up, let's look at defensive tackle.  This is where things could get interesting, so check out the table below which includes nine different possibilities.

Rank

Name

Position

School

Average Rank

Std. Dev.

1

Jonathan Allen

DL

Alabama

3.857142857

1.245399698

2

Malik McDowell

DL

Michigan State

31.42857143

13.9985422

3

Caleb Brantley

DL

Florida

56

14.22271825

4

Chris Wormley

DL

Michigan

59.57142857

18.32139376

5

Larry Ogunjobi

DL

Charlotte

71.5

7.868714423

6

Montravius Adams

DL

Auburn

78.42857143

10.34901159

7

Carlos Watkins

DT

Clemson

94.33333333

25.3880987

8

Elijah Qualls

DL

Washington

100

28.28427125

9

Nazair Jones

DL

North Carolina

127.2857143

39.76256059

We can forget about Jonathan Allen and Malik McDowell, as both will more than likely go in the 1st round.  But Caleb Brantley and Chris Wormley are definitely in play for the Vikings with the 48th pick.  Both would not represent the best value in that their average ranks are significantly lower than 48th, but that means the Vikings could potentially trade back in the 2nd round and land one of them while acquiring more picks.  Or, they could stand pat and reach a little bit.  The past few weeks we've seen DT Caleb Brantley mocked to the Vikings in the 2nd round, including by the "great" Mel Kiper.  But what might be smarter is to wait until the 3rd round and grab either Larry Ogunjobi or Montravius Adams with pick #79, or even Carlos Watkins with pick #86.  All of them would be perfect matches in terms of value and likelihood of being available.  Heck, even Nazair Jones is in play with their #121 or #129 pick in the 4th round.  There are lots of possibilities for the Vikings to land one of these top 9 defensive tackles.

Lastly, let's consider linebacker. One weakness here is that the ranking did not distinguish between inside linebacker and outside linebacker, so take this with a grain of salt.  Having said that, there are ten prospects, making this the largest position group of the three top needs for the Vikings.  Below are the average ranks for linebackers.

Rank

Name

Position

School

Average Rank

Std. Dev.

1

Reuben Foster

LB

Alabama

9.857142857

2.899683304

2

Haason Reddick

LB

Temple

18.66666667

8.975274679

3

Jarrad Davis

LB

Florida

29.57142857

6.411087335

4

Zach Cunningham

LB

Vanderbilt

39.71428571

11.82870945

5

T.J. Watt

LB

Wisconsin

43.85714286

13.42097049

6

Raekwon McMillan

LB

Ohio State

59.14285714

27.50287555

7

Duke Riley

LB

LSU

86.66666667

26.22763598

8

Alex Anzalone

LB

Florida

93.2

18.23622768

9

Anthony Walker

LB

Northwestern

104

27.08012802

10

Jalen Reeves-Maybin

LB

Tennessee

200.6

76.93529749

My first reaction is that there are five players ranked well ahead of the Vikings 48th pick.  I'm not sure how many other teams have a need at linebacker, but if one of those five players fell to the Vikings, they should seriously consider taking one in the 2nd round.  Still, a player like TJ Watt or Raekwon McMillan is certainly a viable possibility with the 48th overall pick even if one of the top guys doesn't fall.  However, in the SB Nation Mock that very scenario played out as Jarrad Davis was on the board when we came on the clock at pick #48.   Based on the overall ranks, the talent level appears to drop off pretty fast after those first five or six players.  In terms of a round to target, Duke Riley or Alex Anzalone slot in pretty well with our second 3rd round pick (#86 overall) and Anthony Walker could be in play in the early 4th round (#121 overall).  So there are lots of possibilities for the Vikings to acquire a good linebacker in this draft.

It remains to be seen who might be available at pick #48 and who the Vikings will ultimately draft, but here is a quick snapshot of players ranked #38-58 overall.  If the group-think consensus rankings have captured the overall rankings of NFL front offices at least a little bit, then the odds are high that the Vikings would draft one of the players on the following list:

Rank

Name

Position

School

Average Rank

Std. Dev.

38

Adoree' Jackson

CB

USC

40.83333333

5.520165054

39

Quincy Wilson

CB

Florida

42.85714286

18.6043664

40

T.J. Watt

LB

Wisconsin

43.85714286

13.42097049

41

Tim Williams

Edge

Alabama

44.42857143

25.80618499

42

Chidobe Awuzie

S/CB

Colorado

44.42857143

12.32717257

43

DeShone Kizer

QB

Notre Dame

45.14285714

16.21664552

44

Kevin King

CB

Washington

45.71428571

24.48739784

45

Dan Feeney

OG

Indiana

47.42857143

10.8871765

46

Sidney Jones

CB

Washington

47.5

24.6153746

47

Alvin Kamara

RB

Tennessee

49.28571429

15.7997675

48

Curtis Samuel

WR/RB

Ohio State

51.71428571

6.880911188

49

Tyus Bowser

Edge

Houston

54.5

15.08586535

50

Josh Jones

S

N.C. State

55.16666667

10.30237297

51

Zay Jones

WR

East Carolina

55.42857143

17.64618245

52

Caleb Brantley

DL

Florida

56

14.22271825

53

Joe Mixon

RB

Oklahoma

56.42857143

20.26155503

54

Adam Shaheen

TE

Ashland

56.5

5.965176723

55

Raekwon McMillan

LB

Ohio State

59.14285714

27.50287555

56

Dion Dawkins

OG/OT

Temple

59.5

3.774917218

57

Chris Wormley

DL

Michigan

59.57142857

18.32139376

58

Marcus Williams

S

Utah

59.57142857

10.21003908

There is almost zero chance that the NFL drafts players in the exact order of the Consensus Rankings, but if they did, guess who slots in at #48 on the nose?  WR Curtis Samuel, someone our very own Ted Glover has announced as the "One Player He Wants."  I'm sure Ted would be over-joyed to see Samuel end up in Purple, and I have to admit, I wouldn't be mad to see it either.  But there are several names that have been mocked and/or linked to the Vikings on this list like running backs Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon, and the aforementioned Dan Feeney and Caleb Brantley.  I think all are good possibilities that would address needs for the team.  So what would I do if I were running the Vikings?  Well, using the information in the Consensus Ranks, along with what I perceive as the greatest needs of the team, here is a quick and easy, no trades mock draft.

Round 2, Pick No. 48: G Dan Feeney, Indiana

Round 3, Pick No. 79: DT Larry Ogunjobi, Charlotte

Round 3, Pick No. 86 (from Miami): LB Duke Riley, LSU

Round 4, Pick No. 121: RB Wayne Gallman, Clemson

Round 4, Pick No. 129 (from Miami): WR Mack Hollins, North Carolina

Round 5, Pick No. 160: TE Michael Roberts, Toledo

Round 6, Pick No. 199: OT Avery Gennesy, Texas A&M

Round 7, Pick No. 232: QB CJ Beatherd, Iowa (HOMER ALERT!)

And finally, what Consensus Ranking would be complete without the entire listing?  For the curious I used the following sources: CBS, NFL.com, Draft Guru, Draft Ace, NFL Rough Draft, Draft Countdown and the Huddle Report.  All seven sources have a Top 10 score average over the past 5 years with their Top 100 boards on the Huddle Report.

This might be the first time ever that the #1 overall pick came in with a 0 standard deviation.  That's right, Myles Garrett is the Consensus #1 overall pick across all seven rankings. Cleveland couldn't possibly be dumb enough to pass on him, right?

Rank

Name

Pos

School

Average

Std Dev

1

Myles Garrett

Edge

Texas A&M

1

0

2

Solomon Thomas

Edge

Stanford

3

1.195228609

3

Jonathan Allen

DL

Alabama

3.857142857

1.245399698

4

Jamal Adams

S

LSU

4.285714286

1.577908717

5

Leonard Fournette

RB

LSU

4.428571429

2.441143927

6

Malik Hooker

S

Ohio State

6.857142857

1.807015806

7

Marshon Lattimore

CB

Ohio State

8.142857143

1.884415137

8

O.J. Howard

TE

Alabama

8.428571429

2.610809555

9

Reuben Foster

LB

Alabama

9.857142857

2.899683304

10

Mike Williams

WR

Clemson

12.14285714

4.580348441

11

Dalvin Cook

RB

Florida State

13.71428571

3.45229885

12

Derek Barnett

Edge

Tennessee

15.14285714

7.679817175

13

Corey Davis

WR

Western Michigan

17.85714286

6.642473107

14

Haason Reddick

LB

Temple

18.66666667

8.975274679

15

John Ross

WR

Washington

18.85714286

5.276052946

16

Forrest Lamp

OG/OT

Western Kentucky

19.42857143

5.421047417

17

Gareon Conley

CB

Ohio State

22

6.886840453

18

David Njoku

TE

Miami

22.28571429

18.47557682

19

Mitchell Trubisky

QB

North Carolina

22.71428571

8.987519691

20

Cam Robinson

OT/G

Alabama

23.28571429

6.2040145

21

Ryan Ramczyk

OT

Wisconsin

23.85714286

5.717856027

22

Taco Charlton

Edge

Michigan

24

6.546536707

23

Christian McCaffrey

RB

Stanford

24.42857143

12.8492039

24

Garett Bolles

OT

Utah

24.71428571

7.477858473

25

Takkarist McKinley

Edge

UCLA

25.28571429

5.624291339

26

Marlon Humphrey

CB

Alabama

27.28571429

12.48672765

27

Jabrill Peppers

S/LB

Michigan

29.28571429

13.66658371

28

Jarrad Davis

LB

Florida

29.57142857

6.411087335

29

Malik McDowell

DL

Michigan State

31.42857143

13.9985422

30

Charles Harris

Edge

Missouri

32.16666667

3.53160335

31

Tre'Davious White

CB

LSU

34.42857143

2.920721186

32

Deshaun Watson

QB

Clemson

35.28571429

15.99744878

33

Patrick Mahomes

QB

Texas Tech

37

5.972157622

34

Obi Melifonwu

S/CB

Connecticut

37.16666667

16.2215563

35

Budda Baker

S

Washington

37.71428571

5.283783431

36

Evan Engram

TE

Ole Miss

39.14285714

8.822512947

37

Zach Cunningham

LB

Vanderbilt

39.71428571

11.82870945

38

Adoree' Jackson

CB

USC

40.83333333

5.520165054

39

Quincy Wilson

CB

Florida

42.85714286

18.6043664

40

T.J. Watt

LB

Wisconsin

43.85714286

13.42097049

41

Tim Williams

Edge

Alabama

44.42857143

25.80618499

42

Chidobe Awuzie

S/CB

Colorado

44.42857143

12.32717257

43

DeShone Kizer

QB

Notre Dame

45.14285714

16.21664552

44

Kevin King

CB

Washington

45.71428571

24.48739784

45

Dan Feeney

OG

Indiana

47.42857143

10.8871765

46

Sidney Jones

CB

Washington

47.5

24.6153746

47

Alvin Kamara

RB

Tennessee

49.28571429

15.7997675

48

Curtis Samuel

WR/RB

Ohio State

51.71428571

6.880911188

49

Tyus Bowser

Edge

Houston

54.5

15.08586535

50

Josh Jones

S

N.C. State

55.16666667

10.30237297

51

Zay Jones

WR

East Carolina

55.42857143

17.64618245

52

Caleb Brantley

DL

Florida

56

14.22271825

53

Joe Mixon

RB

Oklahoma

56.42857143

20.26155503

54

Adam Shaheen

TE

Ashland

56.5

5.965176723

55

Raekwon McMillan

LB

Ohio State

59.14285714

27.50287555

56

Dion Dawkins

OG/OT

Temple

59.5

3.774917218

57

Chris Wormley

DL

Michigan

59.57142857

18.32139376

58

Marcus Williams

S

Utah

59.57142857

10.21003908

59

Cordrea Tankersley

CB

Clemson

60.28571429

17.36757476

60

Teez Tabor

CB

Florida

60.71428571

22.8642846

61

Cooper Kupp

WR

Eastern Washington

61.28571429

12.73593662

62

Taylor Moton

OT

Western Michigan

62.83333333

11.88018892

63

Dorian Johnson

OG

Pittsburgh

63.71428571

9.4674523

64

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR

USC

63.85714286

16.85593216

65

Jordan Willis

Edge

Kansas State

64.33333333

9.480975102

66

Fabian Moreau

CB

UCLA

65

11.2989675

67

Pat Elflein

C/OG

Ohio State

65.71428571

13.86376867

68

Carl Lawson

Edge

Auburn

65.85714286

21.17565024

69

Antonio Garcia

OT

Troy

68.28571429

14.10890586

70

Tarell Basham

Edge

Ohio

70

13.74772708

71

Larry Ogunjobi

DL

Charlotte

71.5

7.868714423

72

Desmond King

CB/FS

Iowa

71.85714286

15.14150937

73

Gerald Everett

TE

South Alabama

72

14.46177227

74

Marcus Maye

S

Florida

72.5

25.25701223

75

Ryan Anderson

Edge

Alabama

73

19.49358869

76

Chris Godwin

WR

Penn Sate

75.16666667

26.63591977

77

Derek Rivers

Edge

Youngstown State

77.33333333

33.24989557

78

Montravius Adams

DL

Auburn

78.42857143

10.34901159

79

Justin Evans

S

Texas A&M

79.33333333

22.53639033

80

Jourdan Lewis

CB

Michigan

79.42857143

20.97520402

81

Jake Butt

TE

Michigan

79.5

8.808140174

82

Ethan Pocic

C

LSU

80.16666667

24.08607251

83

Ahkello Witherspoon

CB

Colorado

81

13.40397951

84

ArDarius Stewart

WR

Alabama

82.14285714

15.72467189

85

Carlos Henderson

WR

Louisiana Tech

82.71428571

14.06834629

86

Cameron Sutton

CB

Tennessee

83.42857143

24.07640898

87

Davis Webb

QB

California

85.66666667

31.79972047

88

Duke Riley

LB

LSU

86.66666667

26.22763598

89

D'Onta Foreman

RB

Texas

89.16666667

36.13593164

90

Roderick Johnson

OT

Florida State

90.83333333

17.66745281

91

Amara Darboh

WR

Michigan

92.83333333

24.82214513

92

Alex Anzalone

LB

Florida

93.2

18.23622768

93

Carlos Watkins

DT

Clemson

94.33333333

25.3880987

94

Rasul Douglas

CB

West Virginia

96.8

25.12687804

95

Bucky Hodges

TE

Virginia Tech

97.33333333

46.30574718

96

Dede Westbrook

WR

Oklahoma

98.33333333

35.31131389

97

Jordan Leggett

TE

Clemson

99.16666667

27.5403744

98

Elijah Qualls

DL

Washington

100

28.28427125

99

Samaje Perine

RB

Oklahoma

100

21.8936825

100

Daeshon Hall

Edge

Texas A&M

101.6

27.63041802

101

Nathan Peterman

QB

Pittsburgh

102.8333333

22.38613162

102

Anthony Walker

LB

Northwestern

104

27.08012802

103

Eddie Jackson

S

Alabama

111

35.52866046

104

Isaac Asiata

OG

Utah

117.4

44.41441208

105

Kareem Hunt

RB

Toledo

119.1666667

26.57954518

106

Nazair Jones

DL

North Carolina

127.2857143

39.76256059

107

Wayne Gallman

RB

Clemson

128

40.3402198

108

Malachi Dupre

WR

LSU

133

39.62322551

109

John Johnson

S

Boston College

134.2

37.30629974

110

Ryan Switzer

WR

North Carolina

165.5

49.27727671

111

Joe Mathis

DE

Washington

170.4

74.274087

112

Artavis Scott

WR

Clemson

179.4

68.84068564

113

Jalen Reeves-Maybin

LB

Tennessee

200.6

76.93529749