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The Minnesota Vikings finished 2016 season with an 8-8 record, how will they finish this year? Let’s review team’s offensive and defensive output from the previous season…

After finishing 11-5 and a division title, the Minnesota Vikings had high expectations going in to the 2016 season. The Vikings finished 8-8 after starting 5-0 and all the expectations for the 2016 season did not pan out. Minnesota will host a super bowl and the Vikings organization wants their team to be in it. There has already been a few predictions on the Vikings 2017 regular season record.

Per Jayson Brown’s article Contenders “…only 6 of the past 23 Super bowl champions were ranked outside of the top 10 in points scored during their Super bowl winning season and only 5 of the past 23 champions were ranked outside of the top 10 in points allowed.” Based on how the Vikings finished last season in points scored and defensive points allowed, we can compare to those rankings to the teams they will face this season.

To give an estimate on how the Vikings will finish, an average of their offensive and defensive production will be aggregated into an average score. Excluding special teams was necessary due to the unpredictability of effect on wins and losses in their rankings. The focus will primarily be on average scoring production of offense an defense for all Vikings 2017 opponents.

There are a few liberties taken in this piece; that teams are going to continue to produce at the same level with no variation, the teams average score is the deciding factor on wins and losses, and ranking one side of the ball does not affect the outcome of the game based on the opposing teams ranking (i.e. 6 ranked defense does not increase a teams likelihood to beat 27th ranked offense.

Minnesota Vikings

  • Offensive points per games: 20.4 (23rd)
  • Defensive points allowed: 19.2 (6th)
  • Average position off. & def. score (14.5)

Week 1

New Orleans Saints

  • Offensive points per games: 29.3 (2nd)
  • Defensive points allowed: 28.4 (28
  • Average position off. & def. production (15)

Result: Win

Week 2

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Offensive points per games: 24.9 (10th)
  • Defensive points allowed: 20.4 (10th)
  • Average position off. & def. production (10)

Result: Loss

Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Offensive points per games: 22.1 (19th)
  • Defensive points allowed: 20.4 (15th)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (17)

Result: Win

Week 4

Detroit Lions

  • Offensive points per games: 21.6 (20th)
  • Defensive points allowed: 22.4 (13th)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (16.5)

Result: Win

Week 5

Chicago Bears

  • Offensive points per games: 17.4 (28th)
  • Defensive points allowed: 24.9 (24th)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (21.5)

Result: Win

Week 6

Green Bay Packers

  • Offensive points per games: 27.0 (4th)
  • Defensive points allowed: 24.3 (21th)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (12.5)

Result: Loss

Week 7

Baltimore Ravens

  • Offensive points per games: 21.4 (21th)
  • Defensive points allowed: 20.1 (9th)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (15)

Result: Win

Week 8

Cleveland Browns

  • Offensive points per games: 16.5 (31st)
  • Defensive points allowed: 28.3 (30th)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (30.5)

Result: Win

Week 9

Bye

  • No Injuries- Win
  • Kick a Door-Loss

Week 10

Washington Redskins

  • Offensive points per games: 16.5 (21th)
  • Defensive points allowed: 24.8 (12th)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (16.5)

Result: Win

Week 11

Los Angeles Rams

  • Offensive points per games: 17.4 (32nd)
  • Defensive points allowed: 24.6 (23th)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (27.5)

Result: Win

Week 12

Detroit Lions

  • Offensive points per games: 21.6 (20th)
  • Defensive points allowed: 22.4 (13th)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (16.5)

Result: Win

Week 13

Atlanta Falcons

  • Offensive points per games: 21.6 (20th)
  • Defensive points allowed: 33.8 (2nd)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (11.0)

Result: Loss

Week 14

Carolina Panthers

  • Offensive points per games: 23.1 (19th)
  • Defensive points allowed: 25.1 (21st)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (20.0)

Result: Win

Week 15

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Offensive points per games: 20.3 (13th)
  • Defensive points allowed: 19.7 (17th)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (15.0)

Result: Win

Week 16

Green Bay Packers

  • Offensive points per games: 27.0 (4th)
  • Defensive points allowed: 24.3 (21st)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (12.5)

Result: Loss

Week 17

Chicago Bears

  • Offensive points per games: 17.4 (28th)
  • Defensive points allowed: 24.9 (24th)
  • Average position off. & def. ranking (21.5)

Result: Win

Final Record: 12-4

There will be variability with this next season as the Vikings offense looks to improve. Comparable to the games in 2016, the Vikings defensive ranking helped to lower their average score and improve their record. If the Vikings can improve their offense, this record will be more realistic and less conjecture.