FanPost

Solving the QB Dilemma: Sign both QBs to Long-term Contracts?

As I have reflected on the Vikings QB situation, it seems clear that there is a great risk in waiting until after the 2017 season before deciding whether or not to sign Sam Bradford and/or Teddy Bridgewater to longer-term contracts. You could potentially lose both QBs (depending on whether Teddy ends up on the PUP to start the season and how the NFL/NFLPA decide to interpret the contract language related to "tolling.") There is also a risk if you sign either QB too early, because either Bradford could regress, or Teddy could never fully regain the ability to function as a starting-level QB.

I believe the time period between Week 6 and Week 7 will be crucial, because enough of the season will have passed to clearly evaluate if the offensive line and running game are improved and as a result if Bradford is playing at a high-enough level in the revamped Pat Shurmur offense to know if he can be the long-term solution for the Vikings. It is also the time where Teddy can be removed from the PUP list and added to the active roster.

So, if the Vikings start out 4-2, 5-1, or 6-0, and Bradford is playing well, I believe they should attempt to sign him to a long-term contract of around $19-20M per year for 5-6 years. If he chooses to hold out for $23M per year like David Carr just received, then you shut down the negotiations and tell him that the $19-20M offer is still potentially available, but you are going to seriously evaluate and consider Teddy if Bradford isn't willing to commit to the Vikings long-term. You still have a potentially healthy Teddy that can be used as leverage during the rest of the 2017 season (unless it becomes clear that Teddy will not be able to recover). Once Bradford thinks it over and considers the situation of the other QB-needy teams in the NFL where he could potentially end up as a free agent, he will realize that the Vikings are the best situation for him (a Pat Shurmur-led offense tailored to his strengths, a strong defense that can take some pressure off of him, hopefully an improved O-line and running game, etc.) and will sign the $19-20M deal.

Then, also sign Teddy to a 3-year prove-it deal that is heavily incentive-laden and would make him a lot of $ if he ends up playing as a starting QB. It could be structured like this: 1st-year $6M base and up to $7M in incentives if he plays all 16 games, 2nd-year $8M base and up to $7M in incentives, and a 3rd-year team option for $14M base and up to $7M in incentives. Then give him a generous signing bonus of $10-11M to show that the team is committing to him even though he hasn't fully shown that he is all the way back to 100%.

If Bradford plays well and ends up taking the team to the playoffs and maybe even winning at least 1 playoff game, then you can keep Bradford as your long-term starter. Then you evaluate your backups (Keenum and Heinecke). If you do not feel good about your backup situation, then you keep Teddy for up to 2 years as the backup and if Bradford stays healthy, then you only pay Teddy $6M and $8M per year, and your total QB salary commitment of $26M and $28M for those 2 years seems reasonable. Of course, if Bradford gets injured, then you have a legitimate starting QB as your backup, so the team doesn't miss a beat and Teddy earns some extra $. If you end up liking one of your backups, then you trade Teddy for a king's ransom. Teddy is happy because he gets to start somewhere (Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville, etc.) and he can with incentives earn up to $13M, $15M, and $21M as the starter. The team who receives him is happy because they are getting an NFL starting caliber QB at a reasonable price.

If Bradford ends up playing OK, but the team ends up 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7 and misses the playoffs, then by the end of the season you will probably know if Teddy will be back to 100%. If Teddy is fully healthy, then you move forward with Teddy and you trade Bradford. When you see what Houston and Cleveland are both willing to pay for Brock Osweiler and what Chicago gave up in the draft in order to get a project like Mitch Trubisky, it becomes clear that there will still be a strong market for Bradford's services and you could certainly trade him to a QB-needy team. Teddy will be happy again because he will be starting in Minnesota and will be able to earn $13M, $15M, and $21M over the next 3 years.

The risk in this scenario is if Bradford's production drops off significantly and if Teddy never regains his form. IMHO, Bradford has already proven that, if healthy, he will perform at an acceptable level. If Bradford gets seriously injured, that is honestly no different that the risk that every NFL team takes when they give their star QB a huge contract with a large signing bonus. If Teddy never fully regains his form, you are only out the $10M signing bonus at worst, and I think it is worth that risk to ensure that the Vikings end up with either Bradford or Teddy for the next 3+ years.

Thoughts?

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.