As we’ve mentioned in previous postings, the biggest rush of free agency is over and done with, and the Minnesota Vikings have been on both the gaining and losing end of various transactions over the course of the past week. We saw the Vikings get a couple of extra selections in the 2018 NFL Draft thanks to the Compensatory Pick process, and it appears that they’re still on track to receive several picks in the 2019 NFL Draft as well.
The folks from Over the Cap are already tracking projected Compensatory Picks for 2019 on their website. While the methodology that Over the Cap uses can be questioned if you wish, it bears pointing out that they were very accurate with their projections for 2018 Compensatory Picks (including the two sixth-rounders the Vikings received), so it would appear as though they have some pretty solid insights into the process.
To review, here are the transactions that OTC is using to make their projections:
Qualifying Free Agents Signed by Minnesota
- Quarterback Kirk Cousins - Average per year (APY) of $28,000,000 (Three-year, $84 million contract)
- Defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson - APY of $8,000,000 (One-year, $8 million contract)
Qualifying Free Agents Lost by Minnesota
- Quarterback Sam Bradford - APY of $20,000,000 (Two-year, $40 million contract)
- Quarterback Case Keenum - APY of $18,000,000 (Two-year, $36 million contract)
- Running back Jerick McKinnon - APY of $7,500,000 (Four-year, $30 million contract)
- Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater - APY of $5,000,000 (One-year, $5 million contract)
- Cornerback Tramaine Brock - APY of $4,000,000 (One-year, $4 million contract)
According to Over the Cap’s methodology (which you can read more about here), the signing of Kirk Cousins is cancelled out by the loss of Sam Bradford, because they are each expected to have a third-round compensatory value. On top of that, the signing of Sheldon Richardson is cancelled out by the loss of Jerick McKinnon, as their APY values are similar. That’s what I read into their methodology, in any case. They have a full cancellation chart on their site that illustrates all the comings and goings and who “cancels out” what, so that’s what I’m basing this off of.
That means that the Vikings are still in line to receive three Compensatory Selections in the 2019 NFL Draft for the losses of Keenum, Bridgewater, and Brock. According to Over the Cap, the Vikings will receive a third-round pick for Keenum, a sixth-round pick for Bridgewater, and a seventh-round pick for Brock. There’s the possibility that other signings could end up pushing the compensation for Bridgewater and Brock down a bit, or that the Vikings could sign players for similar APYs that could cancel them out, but that’s where things stand right now.
If that holds up, the Vikings would already be up to nine picks in the 2019 NFL Draft:
- 2019 First Round pick
- 2019 Second Round pick
- 2019 Third Round pick
- 2019 Compensatory Third Round pick
- 2019 Fourth Round pick
- 2019 Sixth Round pick
- 2019 Compensatory Sixth Round pick
- 2019 Seventh Round pick
- 2019 Compensatory Seventh Round pick
Remember, the team’s fifth round pick in 2019 is going to the Denver Broncos as a part of the Trevor Siemian trade.
The Vikings haven’t really been a part of the Compensatory Pick process for most of the time it’s been around, but with the losses they’ve experienced over the past couple of years, they’re finally getting to take part in getting some extra selections under their belts. I don’t know if this will be a trend going forward, but it’s nice to see it happen occasionally.