Since there isn’t really a whole lot else going on at the present time, what with the Minnesota Vikings having the cap situation they’re currently in and only three of their remaining in-house free agents still out there, let’s take another look at how the offseason thus far is shaping the potential for extra selections in the 2020 NFL Draft for the purple.
As we’ve gone over in the past, the good folks from Over the Cap, specifically Nick Korte, have done a bang-up job of tracking Compensatory Picks in the past. . .which is pretty amazing given that nobody outside of the league offices knows what the Compensatory Pick formula actually is. By looking at the gains and losses that the team has had since the start of the new league year a couple of weeks ago, they can give us a pretty solid approximation of how things will look.
Much of OTC’s formula is based on the Average Per Year value (APY) of contracts that free agents have signed. In order to count as a part of the Compensatory Pick formula, only players that had their contracts expire are considered. That means, in the Vikings’ case, a player like Mike Remmers won’t count as a loss (when he eventually signs somewhere), nor does Josh Kline count as a gain, as those two players were both cut rather than on the market because their contracts had run their full course.
So, let’s take a look at the gains and losses for the Vikings, along with the APY of each deal.
Vikings Free Agent Losses
- Sheldon Richardson - APY of $11,933,333
- Nick Easton - APY of $6,000,000
- Latavius Murray - APY of $3,600,000
- Trevor Siemian - APY of $2,000,000
- Tom Compton - APY of $1,600,000
- Andrew Sendejo - APY of $1,300,000
- Marcus Sherels - APY unknown
- George Iloka - APY unknown
Vikings Free Agent Gains
- Shamar Stephen - APY of $4,150,000
According to OTC’s cancellation chart, the Stephen signing is canceled out by the Easton loss. All of the Vikings other losses have the potential to bring in Compensatory Picks.
At the present time, OTC is projecting the Vikings to receive four Compensatory Selections: a third-rounder (Richardson), a sixth-rounder (Murray), and a pair of seventh-rounders (Siemian and Compton). The most Compensatory Picks that any team can receive is four, and while the APYs for Sherels and Iloka are unknown at this point (as terms of their one-year deals have not been released), I wouldn’t expect that either of them would push the Vikings to a pick higher than the seventh round. The lowest APY for a sixth-round pick right now according to OTC is Murray’s $3,600,000, and I’d be stunned if either Sherels or Iloka signed for that much. The best case is that they’d sign for more than Compton’s $1,600,000 figure and put the Vikings that much more firmly into the likelihood of receiving a seventh-round pick for them.
That means the Vikings would, potentially, go into the 2020 NFL Draft with 11 selections. It also means that, armed with that knowledge, Rick Spielman might be willing to deal some 2020 picks in the mid or late rounds to try to move up in the 2019 NFL Draft. We know that Rick loves his draft picks, but given that he’s in the final year of his contract (which, unlike Mike Zimmer’s deal, has not been extended), he might love acquiring talent even more.
We’re just a month away from the Draft, folks. The anticipation is going to be killer.