2020 NFL Draft: A change in the Vikings’ potential selections

We’re still a couple of months away from the 2020 NFL Draft in Las Vegas, but we want to take a look at which picks the Minnesota Vikings currently have and could potentially have for this year’s selection meeting, because there’s been a bit of a change from what has been projected to this point in time.

As of now, the Vikings have seven draft picks in their pocket, and are currently projected by the folks from Over the Cap to have three more compensatory picks added to that total. The OTC projections have been largely accurate over the past few years, and if they hold true this year, there’s been a bit of a disappointing development for our favorite team.

Here is the full list of current and projected picks, as of now.

• First-round pick, #25 overall
• Second-round pick, #57 overall
• Third-round pick, #89 overall
• Fourth-round pick, TBD (remaining slots will be affected by Compensatory picks)
• Fourth-round pick, TBD (projected Compensatory pick for loss of Sheldon Richardson)
• Fifth-round pick, TBD (traded to Baltimore Ravens for Kaare Vedvik)
• Sixth-round pick, TBD
• Seventh-round pick, TBD (acquired from Miami Dolphins in trade for Danny Isidora)
• Seventh-round pick, TBD
• Seventh-round pick, TBD (projected Compensatory pick for loss of Tom Compton)
• Seventh-round pick, TBD (projected Compensatory pick for loss of Trevor Siemian)

Gotta be honest. . .I had forgotten about the Isidora trade. But it does net the Vikings an extra pick, which is always nice.

The big change, as you’ve probably guessed, is the change in the level of Compensatory pick the Vikings are projected to receive for Sheldon Richardson. For much of this past season, that selection was projected to be a third-round pick. Based on the combination of both salary and performance for this year, however, the folks from OTC have downgraded that to a fourth-round choice instead.

Going from a Day Two pick to a Day Three pick is a pretty significant drop, obviously. In last year’s draft, the third round Compensatory picks ranged anywhere from #96 to #102 (they started at #96 because the New York Giants had used their third-round pick in the previous Supplemental Draft). The fourth round compensatory picks ranged from #135 to #138. In terms of trade value, if we look at the famous “chart,” the picks at the end of the third round range in value from 92 to 116 points, while those at the end of the fourth round are worth a little less than 40 points. Since Compensatory picks can be traded now, that could end up being significant.

In this instance, I hope that the OTC projections were correct the first time. Unfortunately for us, they’ve done a really good job at predicting these selections over the past couple of years, and if they’ve got it down as a fourth now, that’s likely what it’s going to be.