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Earlier today, the news came down that cornerback Trae Waynes is likely to miss much of the 2020 NFL season because of a pectoral injury.
Now, you’re probably saying to yourself, “But, Chris, this doesn’t matter to the Minnesota Vikings. Waynes signed a big contract with the Cincinnati Bengals this offseason so they’re the ones that need to be worried.”
As far as on-field stuff, that’s entirely true. However, this does, potentially, affect the Vikings. . .and, as you’ve probably come to expect, it’s not a positive effect.
See, because of the huge contract that Waynes signed with the Bengals this offseason, the folks from Over the Cap had originally projected the Vikings to receive a third-round compensatory pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. However, while a big part of compensatory picks is the contract that a player signs, there is a performance-based element as well.
To wit:
My 2021 compensatory picks program thinks it's highly likely that Trae Waynes's contract will now only fetch the Vikings a 4th rounder.
— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) August 17, 2020
It also suggests that about 60% of the snaps would get the contract back to a 3rd. Seems unlikely given what's being said about this injury. https://t.co/qwGc3w2AVH
As we’ve talked about in the past, the difference between a third round comp pick and a fourth rounder is pretty huge. The folks from Over the Cap tend to be a pretty good resource when it comes to these sorts of things. . .and yes, they have missed in the past, but those misses have been infrequent.
So, while we hope that Waynes recovers from his injury in short order, that won’t happen in short enough order to be of the proper benefit to the Vikings when it comes to 2021 Compensatory Draft selections.
Presumably, because Vikings.